I use FIP/xFIP a lot, and they are very good predictive stats. But the one thing FIP doesn't say anything about is quality of contact and groundball rate. Hughes has, in (parts of) 7 seasons and almost 400 innings consistently outperformed his FIP (As in comparing ERA and FIP) by >1. At some point you just have to accept that the way he pitches, with a ton of groundballs, will see a lower ERA than FIP and that it isn't luck or a sign that he's due regression. Like him or not, prefer him over Jeffres/Williams/whoever or not, but I don't think using FIP against him is really fair. Well said. FIP and xFIP don't tell the whole story as do a lot of stats.