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SRB

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Everything posted by SRB

  1. SRB
    Myers hit .222/.294/.320/.614 last season. No thanks...
  2. SRB
    Sounds like we traded an organizational (not MLB) catcher for some much needed AAA OF depth and, more importantly, a potential LHP for the major league bullpen. Job well done, I say.
  3. SRB
    I know Souza is supposed to have much higher upside, but in terms of current value does this mean we could have gotten Trea Turner for something like Khris Davis and a pitching prospect? Yikes, nice trade for Washington it seems.
  4. SRB
    Another signing that makes Lind look like a steal.
  5. SRB
    I kind of like the Padres. Hope they don't overpay for a guy (Wil Myers) who has yet to demonstrate he can hit MLB pitching.
  6. SRB
    I like Aoki, but Parra is better and is already on the team, so...
  7. SRB
    I suspect Kang is going to be way, way cheaper than some media outlets are speculating. Aoki was a much more accomplished player when he was posted, and he cost peanuts. I just don't think there is a lot of MLB interest in NPB/KBO position players as anything more than fliers (unless they are generational talents like Ichiro, and even he was a huge steal).
  8. SRB
    His career line against LHP is .291/.331/.508/.837 (.359 wOBA), so if he can play 1B he would be an ideal bench piece to platoon with Lind while still having the flexibility to play the corner OF. Plus he is only 25. However, unless Chicago basically gives him away, I'm sure the asking price will be more than he's worth to Milwaukee.
  9. SRB
    I don't understand what your point is. Drew Smyly is irrelevant, I just picked his name because he showed up on all three lists. The point is that Jon Lester is not an elite ace pitcher, he's a very good pitcher but somewhat second-tier, despite the fact that the Cubs gave him ace money and the media treats him like an ace. I never said I wouldn't rather have Lester than anybody in the Brewers rotation next year. Saying he is better than Greinke is just preposterous, and the mythical AL->NL jump is not nearly as dramatic as you seem to think. He is not a "5 WAR pitcher", he is more like a 3 WAR pitcher (mainly due to his durability/IP) who is now entering his 30s.
  10. SRB
    It's not "stat manipulating," sorry. Looking at the previous three years is standard practice for trying to project how a player will do in the future. Lester's career is not complicated. He had two great years in 2009-2010, a career year in 2014, and otherwise he has been a good pitcher well short of an ace. The numbers I gave for the three year average were a 3.65 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 3.60 xFIP. Lester actually had a worse FIP and xFIP for three of the last four seasons (with 2014 being the dramatic exception). 2011: 3.83 FIP, 3.62 xFIP 2012: 4.11 FIP, 3.82 xFIP 2013: 3.59 FIP, 3.90 xFIP His 2014 season skews the stats far more than his 2012 season. Just because ESPN says a guy is an ace doesn't make it true. For a guy who is already in his 30s, and given the track record of $100M+ contracts, I think it is a horrible blunder by the Cubs, and I expect time will prove me correct.
  11. SRB
    I don't buy the Beane worship. The fact of the matter is he wanted to cut payroll, so he sold off the entire A's team, not for good prospects, but for terrible mediocre returns. As someone pointed out on Twitter, if Jeff Loria and the Marlins had done exactly what Beane did everyone would have been up in arms.
  12. SRB
    2012-2014 xFIP Rankings (qualified SP) 1. Clayton Kershaw, 2.76 xFIP ... 36. Rick Porcello, 3.59 xFIP 37. Jon Lester, 3.60 xFIP ... 40. Yovani Gallardo, 3.64 xFIP ... 42. Drew Smyly, 3.65 xFIP 2012-2014 FIP Rankings (qualified SP) 1. Clayton Kershaw, 2.39 ERA ... 27. Drew Smyly, 3.45 FIP 28. Jon Lester, 3.49 FIP 2012-2014 ERA Rankings (qualified SP) 1. Clayton Kershaw, 2.05 ERA ... 25. Drew Smyly, 3.26 ERA ... 50. Jon Lester, 3.65 ERA Cubs basically paid $155M for a more durable Drew Smyly who pitches well in the postseason.
  13. SRB
    MLB average SS had a .678 OPS in 2014, a .681 OPS in 2013, and a .688 OPS in 2012. (This post not intended as a defense of Jean Segura)
  14. SRB
    Keep in mind this is Arizona we are taking about. The team that basically gave away Trevor Bauer and has traded countless top pitching prospects for peanuts over the years.
  15. SRB
    I think as Brewers fans we must all have some form of Stockholm Syndrome considering that some people have convinced themselves that a player who hit .196/.238/.255/.494 (406 PA) at AA as recently as 2013 is somehow a quality bench option.
  16. SRB
    Davis has been incredibly hot/cold, but the way he's looked when he was hitting well is so encouraging that I wouldn't trade him for anything other a very nice return. There's always the (realistic) hope that he figures some things out and stays hot for an entire season, in which case he is a plus plus outfielder. He's worth more than his cumulative stats (cold streaks included), in other words.
  17. SRB
    Computer projections are almost never going to project a breakout though. They are more of a "floor" than a "ceiling" (and of course, are barely more accurate than just looking at last year's stats...). I think they look pretty solid, at least position-player-wise, considering on top of all this there is a decent chance for certain players to break out (Davis, Segura, etc.) (*Edit* I phrased my post weird, but what I mean to say is basically that I agree with you )
  18. SRB
    He may be underappreciated as a person, but he's severely overrated as a player, which is the problem.
  19. SRB
    What about trading Davis to the Royals for one of their three late inning relievers, perhaps Holland or Davis? This could be a win-win situation for DM and MA since they are filling a need without creating a new one. Just a thought. Khris Davis for one-season-wonder RP Wade Davis would be the worst trade of Melvin's career.
  20. SRB
    I think I remember reading that Kang said he would not sign with a team if he's going to sit the bench. $12-15M in guaranteed money might change his mind. That's a lot of money for Korean players, even superstars over there. Plus, with Milwaukee there is a clear path to a starting role in 2016.
  21. SRB
    Steamer projections for 2015 J. Lester: 192 IP, 3.28 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 3.6 fWAR M. Fiers: 173 IP, 3.64 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.0 fWAR
  22. SRB
    For a few years prior to his career year in 2014, Lester was basically... Kyle Lohse. I'm not too concerned about the Cubs dropping $155M on an overrated pitcher that is arguably not even a legit ace. It's not like they picked up Kershaw.
  23. SRB
    "Thanks for the trade" http://i.giphy.com/NFEiD362N6tkk.gif
  24. SRB
    Lind is not a liability at 1B. Moss actually has much much worse career defensive metrics at 1B. The advantage of Moss is that he's not totally useless against LHP. But he's also not nearly as good against RHP as Lind has been at his best.
  25. SRB
    Mariners one of the teams rumored to be targeting Melky Cabera. If they lose out, what about OF Gerrardo Parra for LHP Charlie Furbush? I agree that the Brewers should be asking for a lot, given that Parra could play a valuable role in 2015, so I would only pull the trigger if we got that type of return.
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