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SRB

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Everything posted by SRB

  1. SRB
    If they were planning to do this then they must really think Nelson Cortes is cooked with his sub-90mph fastball in AAA.
  2. SRB
    Except Civale is a half-season rental for the second-worst team in baseball
  3. SRB
    My Moneyball theory (feel free to hire me, Brewers FO), is that there is a lot of value in scooping up "failed" prospects from the 2019 draft. They had a weird and destabilizing development experience because of Covid and it stands to reason they will be late bloomers. Vaughn got a couple hundred PA after he was drafted in 2019, then missed out on the entire 2020 minor league season, and then the White Sox threw him into the deep end in the majors in 2021. Missing out on the minor leagues almost entirely and having to adjust to major league pitching in an infamously toxic and inept White Sox clubhouse is probably not ideal.
  4. SRB
    He was the third overall pick in the 2019 draft and was a consensus top-20 prospect in baseball as a pure 1B. Hard to have better scouting pedigree as a hitter.
  5. SRB
    We're clearly a trade deadline winner simply because the Cubs did not go all in. The trade deadline matters most for ensuring you win your division. Once we get to the playoffs anything can happen.
  6. SRB
    Turang to SS, Collins to 2B, and now we have an extra outfielder to put into the mix for LF
  7. SRB
    Not necessarily. Even if you assume Cortes has 0 value, then we traded J Quintana for Lockridge.
  8. SRB
    It's not purely salary. There are also roster considerations. You can't just keep Cortes at AAA forever, and if they like all of the current starters better than him, there's nowhere for him to go. (I personally think it was worth getting rid of Quintana to see if Cortes is healthy, but no matter.)
  9. SRB
    The answer may be that the Brewers front office just really, really likes Lockridge and turned down other offers for Cortes to acquire him. Not as a future All Star, but as a valuable roleplayer who can chip in a few WAR over the next few seasons a la Blake Perkins.
  10. SRB
    I don't even understand why Cortes is considered anything close to a salary dump. He seems healthy on his rehab assignment? I'm not angry about the bottom line results of the deadline, but it is baffling.
  11. SRB
    I think Ruiz has flashier speed and teams were hoping he would unlock more power. Lockridge seems like a player profile that used to be common in the majors but isn't around as much anymore. Blake Perkins doesn't seem that far off as a comp tbh. (And Perkins has been a great contributor for us!)
  12. SRB
    Well that's generally the return when you're looking for value in a trade. The projection systems all think he can be a decent enough bench OF, for what it's worth. (80-90 wRC+ with solid defense)
  13. SRB
    Consistently maintaining a .400 OBP at AAA is not nothing. He's an on-base machine who can run and play defense. Still looks like a 5th OF to me, but I can see the front office thinking his eye at the plate might translate to the majors better than a late-20s AAAA guy who relies on power.
  14. SRB
    Last year: 402 PA, .306/.410/.397, 2 HR, 46 SB This year: 99 PA, .291/..408/.468, 2 HR, 7 SB
  15. SRB
    I like a throwback OBP/SB guy with absolutely zero power. Presumably a plus defender? Seems like a role player they think can help this year once rosters expand. Does anyone know if there is a second prospect returning our way? MLBTR says Jorge Quintana, but he seems to already be in our system? 😄
  16. SRB
    Not a knock on Quintana, though his peripherals are not pretty. But Cortes is a great middle-of-the-rotation pitcher (with proven upside for more) who was the centerpiece of our Devin Williams return, and so I find it weird that some are acting like he's toxic waste because he got injured. He had one bad start for us, it's not like his performance has tanked. If he's healthy enough to garner a meaningful trade return, then he's healthy enough to come back as a high-upside playoff starter behind Woodruff and Miz. I'd listen but the return needs to be a solid major-league piece for 2025.
  17. SRB
    Not sure why we would trade a very good SP. Yeah we have a full rotation that is performing well, but you can never have too much pitching, especially since we need a 6-man rotation to limit Miz's innings. I'd also probably bump Quintana for a healthy Cortes.
  18. SRB
    He's difficult to price because he has been horrible since June 1. Can't expect him to stay ice cold, but also do not want to pay for his career months in April/May.
  19. SRB
    I love Kwan, but this seems like a made-up rumor from a few days ago when uninformed pundits thought we needed an OF because Frelick was briefly on the IL. Kwan-Chourio-Frelick sure would be a fun outfield though. Maybe Yelich can start playing some 1B? Has that ever been explored?
  20. SRB
    That's not really that extreme of a home/road split beyond random variation. Chase Field actually tends less homer friendly so it's not like he's just been mashing at Coors. Suarez can be streaky but he's really been locked in power-wise for a long time now. Since July 1 of last year he's just behind Judge and Ohtani in total HR, and in that timeframe (741 PA) he has hit .279/.339/.604/.943 for a .395 wOBA and 155 wRC+. He also has a solid floor during low-OBP stretches because he's a solid defender at 3B. He's justifiably worth quite a bit in a trade if we want to go for it this year. 2021 is the only season in which he came anywhere close to "sucking." He's a reliable 3-4 WAR player otherwise, with upside for more given his power gains.
  21. SRB
    The cost of staying competitive every season is that when you trade a star player the return is less exciting than if you go into rebuild mode and roll the dice on prospects alone. The reason that elite relievers are perhaps undervalued by WAR is that it is not always so easy to just slot another guy into a ninth-inning role. That's where Williams derives most of his value. But we already went without Williams for half of last season and Megill looked fantastic. I think that's the real reason the front office made this trade; we have a proven replacement closer for cheap, and a bigger need in the rotation than in the bullpen. I'm guessing they are also very high on Durbin, who seems like the classic type of player that is severely underrated by non-team-affiliated prospect evaluators and rankings lists (nontraditional size, continued success in the minors but no prospect pedigree)
  22. SRB
    Yes, but as with the Ohtani contract they are moving money around in a way that gives them an unfair advantage year to year. So it is "within the rules" and not a salary cap violation, but in practice they are getting a roster that is way overvalued per season.
  23. SRB
    So the Dodgers are going to have a six-man rotation of Snell, Yamamoto, Ohtani, Glasnow, Kershaw, Sasaski. And Snell is getting a $52 million signing bonus (almost 1/3 of the contract), which is undoubtedly some mechanism for circumventing the spirit of the salary cap. This league is such a joke.
  24. SRB
    Hadn't thought about this obvious explanation for why he chose to be posted two years early, but it makes perfect sense. He wants to join the new Dodgers dynasty at its peak and is willing to add some additional risk to the $300 million pay day he would be looking at by dominating NPB for another two seasons.
  25. SRB
    Unfortunately I don't see a scenario where he signs here. Whatever he and the team need to do to circumvent the rules, he's going to sign somewhere with an understanding that there will be a huge extension offer before he hits free agency 6 years from now. There's just too much risk otherwise to justify not waiting another 2 years to be posted. And we can't afford the kind of extension he will be looking for.
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