JosephC

Detroit is in a pretty unique position. They are going nowhere this year but I don't see any reason for them to be sellers outside of the odd player or two who will be free agents this upcoming off-season. The Tigers have done a wonderful job of rebuilding their farm system. Just two years ago they had one of the worst, but I think they were probably sitting in the 16-20 range prior to the draft and after adding this draft class have probably moved into the top half of the league. The bats are lagging a bit behind, but it's very likely they will have 5 top 100 pitchers in the mid-season update and that is pretty impressive. Detroit's payroll has run at 190+ million in the past, but current obligations plus arbitration players would likely put the projected payroll for 2019 at about 110 million dollars, so they are in an excellent position to add two or three big name free agents and be very competitive next year. I really wouldn't be interested in selling Fulmer if I was sitting in Detroit's GM chair. I'd plan on making a big splash in free agency next year and would want Fulmer to be a part of that club. I'm guessing a team would have to be willing to step up and overpay Detroit to obtain Fulmer.

How about some new rules to stop the foolishness that happened last night? Come off the bench in any type of altercation, automatic minimum five game suspension. Leave your position on the field in any type of altercation, automatic three game suspension. Third man into a fight, automatic 10 game suspension even if it seems clear the intent of the third man is to break up a fight (that is the job of the umpires). Obviously if the player is an active participant in a fight, just tack more games onto what the current, standard punishment already is. Both teams empty the bench, every player gets a minimum three game suspension but suspensions are staggered and league-determined so teams can still have a nearly full roster (no more than two suspensions at one time). Personally, I always thought there would be less mound-charging/throwing at batters if the offender knew that he would not have 24 guys backing him up if it came down to a fight. Talk about slowing a game down for no real purpose at all, just look at Votto/Kratz last night. Everybody has to run off the bench and then stand there and stare at each other, talk about a completely unnecessary waste of time.

Dietrich is a horrible defender in the outfield but I'd personally say the metrics just have him as slightly below average in the infield. His career -4.3 UZR/150 at second base is below average but not terrible. The DRS at 2B is a bad -18 but -14 of that came in 2012 and 2013. Since that time he's a -4 DRS in a bit over 600 innings. Not good but not horrible. Numbers at 3B are similar...show a below average defender but not a train-wreck. That's why the 3 year numbers have him as a 1.9 WAR player...the defensive aspect definitely played into the evaluation. Can't imagine how much higher the WAR would be if he was actually a plus defender? Over the last 3 1/2 years he's OBP'ed .350+ and OPS'ed just under .800.

Not really sure why folks would consider 2018 to be any sort of plus-plus anomaly for Dietrich. He has a career high OPS of .833, but he posted an .800+ OPS back in 2015 in nearly 300 plate appearances. Completely removed 2018 and just look at 2016 and 2017, in those two seasons he posted a .263/.353/.424/.777 slash line. That's not "decent" MLB production, a .353 OBP and .777 OPS is pretty darn good and that's not even including what he's done this season. And consider this if he's plugged in at second base. So far this season there has been 45 players that have logged 100+ plate appearances as a second baseman in MLB. A .353 OBP would rank 6th on the list of second baseman and the .777 OPS would rank 11th. And again, that's totally ignoring the 2018 "career year." Moving back to 2018. Dietrich has played mostly left field, obvious a position that is offense first. As a left fielder this season Dietrich has totaled 232 at bats and has slashed .319/.372/.509/.880...that OPS is 6th among qualifying left fielders. Compare these numbers to Christian Yelich. I'm not saying Dietrich is nearly as good a player as Christian Yelich. But go back and look at the 2018 offensive numbers between the two player and then come back and explain why it's a good idea for the Marlins to trade Dietrich for a package like Demi Orimoloye some other prospect that might scrape the bottom of the Brewer's top 30 prospect list. Dietrich is not some bat-off-the-bench utility player. Since the beginning of 2015, in nearly 1500 major league plate appearances, this guy has slashed .269/.351/.443/.794. That is not "just marginal" type offensive production. And yet someone like Lucas Erceg isn't even considered for the discussion? A guy that has totaled a .272/.324/.430/.754 in over 1100 MiLB plate appearances as a corner infielder and clearly, without question has the down arrow on him (.310 OBP from last year has dropped to .299 this year). Yeah, I don't think I am over-valuing Dietrich, especially since my post with the proposals stated that the straight 33 million surplus value calculation seems high and I "fudged" it down to the 20-25 million dollar range. I think many of the fans here have an unrealistic view of where the Brewer prospects stand. Take a look at those prospects again, good chance that the majority of MLB GMs would look at what has happened this year and would say all but Brown and Orimoloye are "droppers." Unless the Marlins have some crazy obsession with players like Jake Gatewood or Trey Supak, I think it's totally unreasonable to think the Brewers could land a player like Dietrich while protecting all the top 10 organizational prospects. Just doesn't seem realistic at all to me.

That's kind of the issue. Dietrich may play a lot of positions but he really shouldn't be considered what is normally termed a utility player. Looks like he has been in the Marlin's starting lineup about 85% of the time this year. 2017 game logs make it look like he was in the starting lineup most of that season but missed quite a few non-consecutive games in September, I have no idea of he was battling some injuries or if the Marlins were getting a look at some younger players. In 2016 it looks like he moved into the starting lineup about 3 weeks into the season and pretty much held onto that until he missed a bunch of games about midway through August which I'm assuming was due to injury. So to me it looks like he has been a regular in the starting lineup since 2016 and over that time has slashed .273/.353/.442/.795. That's much better than what would be considered utility player expectations.

Dietrich only makes 2.9 million and there is no future obligation as he's in arbitration. I don't see them trading him unless they get an offer they like. If he continues on his current pace this season, from 2016-2018 he will have averaged 1.9 WAR per season between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. He turns 29 in the near future so there is no reason to expect any significant regression from him through the remainder of his "controlled" seasons. So crediting him with 4.6 wins over the next 2.5 seasons (0.8 + 1.9 + 1.9) would put his total value at 45.88 million...then I'd guess he makes something like 12.65 million over that span which brings his surplus value to around 33 million. Seems a bit high to me but it's a pretty strong indicator that the Marlins probably get 20 million in surplus value back and that number could push towards 25 million. Again, no reason that I can see where the Marlins should move him for any less than that. IMO, fair deals would be something like: -Derek Dietrich for Corbin Burnes plus Demi Orimoloye -Derek Dietrich for Lucas Erceg plus Tristen Lutz plus Braden Webb -Derek Dietrich for Brett Phillips plus Cody Ponce plus Zack Brown

Josh Bell and Domingo Santana. What similar stories this season. Where has the power gone? I have to say I'm still pretty high on both these players despite what has happened this season. Not saying I'd trade Aguilar + Thames for Bell...but I still expect big things from Bell in the future.

I think you get what I originally posted on page 10. Taking what he had done over the course of the year (to that point), he was good for about a 3 WAR price-tag. Even though my proposals on that page were fair, I didn't believe that would be enough to land Machado. Now I think those proposals might actually be in the ballpark. Not only has Machado's offensive production really slipped, but since that post the acquiring team will have lost 10 days of Machado's contribution. All that I'm saying is that up until now I didn't really think it was even worth making a phone call. But now it might be. Supak/Gatewood/Orimoloye won't get a deal done, but IMO it's now a decent enough offer to get into Machado discussions.

I'm probably just dreaming, but now I'm thinking Machado might be available for a fairly reasonable price. His hitting has really dropped off over the last month. Slash line over the last 30 days is .250/.317/.424/.741. He'd only be grading as a 1.8 WAR player over the course of a full season with that slash line added to the subpar defense at shortstop. Page 10, post 189 I kind of threw out some fair examples of a Machado to Milwaukee trade but at the time didn't think any of them were realistic. Now I'm not so sure. And this is maybe completely without merit, but I just get the feeling that opposing organizations will really try to low-ball the Orioles since they are so down. I don't think it would be crazy to call Baltimore and start by offering Trey Supak and Jake Gatewood and maybe a plus-fringe prospect like Demi Orimoloye and see if that could get the ball rolling? I'd put the prospect surplus value of this package at 13.71 million, and would place the surplus value of the compensatory pick at 11.45 million...so the package would be above the minimum required to even bother making the phone call IMO.

Wow, hopefully only 10 days. IMO this is the one player the Brewers cannot afford to lose for an extended amount of time. Hopefully they prove me wrong and play some great baseball over the next 8-10 days. At least the schedule is on the easier side this next week.

Have to agree with the metrics/analytics...for me Cain would be the MVP (through June 25).

It's just seems odd that this team should be searching for offense and there are now five guys on the 25-man roster that can play the middle infield (Miller, Villar, Arcia, Perez, Sogard). The only one of those players that hasn't had his offense questioned by Brewer fans is Miller and that's probably just because he hasn't been here long enough. For a team that seems to be searching for offense and supposedly had a big glut of OF/1B talent, it's just really strange to see Miller, Villar, Arcia, Perez and Sogard all on the roster at the same time.

Have to admit I'd rather see Keon getting innings in the outfield for the Brewers ahead of Perez or Thames. Perez's bat just plays too far down as an outfielder. Thames was an absolute butcher in left last year, but I see that he does have a 0 DRS in his 49 outfield innings so far this year.

Cardinal fans have to really be wondering if Ozuna's 2017 was a fluke season? His 2018 .279/.323/.420/.743 sure is looking like the 2014-2016 3 year total of .265/.316/.433/.749.

I forgot to factor in Herrera's salary. When added in, the Royals give up about 8.3 million dollars in surplus value and the Nationals give up 13.73 million in prospect surplus value. IMO the numbers show it as a solid return for Kansas City. Interesting route the Royals are taking. From doing some reading, I get the impression that the 55 fielding grade assigned for Gutierrez by MLB.com is low. Gutierrez and Perkins have limited ceilings with the bat, but both sound like plus-plus defenders and Perkins can really run. Quantity over quality deal that brings speed and defense. Add in a young, power-arm lottery ticket. The approximate 4.5 million addition in salary for the Nationals is near nothing as they are running a payroll over 180 million and were over the luxury tax threshold before the trade was made. I'm not really sure that Gutierrez and Perkins bats would every play up enough for an east coast team that runs a 180+ million dollar payroll...a payroll that could balloon to well over 200 million if Ted Lerner goes all in during free agency which would be a pretty good bet. I think it's a pretty decent deal for both sides.

Anderson Espinoza was rated much higher when that trade was made. Baseball America's 2016 mid-season list had him ranked #24. I seem to remember some lists at the time had him in the late teen's. Espinoza was definitetly a consensus top 25 prospect in all of baseball when that trade went down.

I like the analysis but since the Orioles would get a Comp A pick when Machado leaves does that have to play into the return? Sure, Burnes is worth more than a Comp A pick but is there less incentive for the Orioles to trade him and thus more of a return needed? A compensatory pick should be considered an offer just like the offers the Orioles would receive from other teams. To me there is no difference in an offer from team A, an offer from team B, a compensatory pick. If the Orioles value the compensatory pick more than the offer from team A or the offer from team B, then they should keep Machado and take the compensatory pick instead of a trade package. Shouldn't matter if I'm the Yankees or the Brewers, if I'm making this trade then I am trading for Machado and the value he brings to my team. My offer should be based on that. It doesn't make much sense for me to pay the Orioles more for missing out on a compensatory pick because they are the team getting the compensatory pick...not my team.

How the mighty have fallen.

Hernan Perez batting fifth = .267/.290/.300/.590 I realize that on many days this roster only goes four hitters deep, but is it necessary to keep trying Perez in the #5 hole? Would it be so ridiculous to try Villar there or even one of the catchers? Ryan Braun batting third = .206/.263/.369/.632 Ryan Braun batting fifth = .371/.405/.657/1.062 (up to 35 at-bats) Well maybe there is the answer to the fifth spot in the lineup? I normally don't put much stock into batting third versus fifth but at the point Braun just seems like a totally worthless bat when hitting #3. He should be moved down in the lineup for the rest of the season IMO. Which leads to the next point. Brewer's slash line from the third spot in the lineup: .223/.299/.414/.712 Even though the bottom of the lineup gets all the crap (which has merit), the third spot in the lineup has been bad. .223 average is third worst in baseball. .299 OBP is third worst. SLG is 9th worst and OPS is 5th worst. Of hitters with more than 1 at-bat out of the #3 spot, Lorenzo Cain has been by far the most productive (.333/.533/.429/.962). We are back to the exact same place we were 12 months ago. The Brewers need a leadoff hitter. Last year Thames got stuck in that role far too often and this year it's been Cain. These guys have too much RBI potential to hit leadoff as much as they do. Maybe time to bite the bullet and just put Villar there for a couple weeks and see how he does? Villar/Yelich/Cain/Shaw/Braun/Thames. At this point, how can it be much worse than living with .223/.299/.414/.712 out of the #3 spot and Perez hitting fifth?

The Royals may have the weakest system in all of baseball (definitely bottom five) and MLB.com has slotted Gutierrez at #8 and Perkins #15 in their system. I wouldn't slot Gutierrez in the top 10 of an average organization but that could be debatable. As I posted above, I think the swap was about as even as could be and seeing the updated Royal's rankings hasn't made me change my mind.

I'd have both Gutierrez and Perkins as role player prospects and Morel as a fringe prospect. That totals 13.73 million in prospect surplus value. With a win being worth 9.16 WAR, that means Herrera has to be worth 1.5 WAR over the remainder of the season for this to be a break even trade. Herrera's average WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs so far is 1.1. If he continues at this pace, the math says he'll be good for 1.4 WAR over the remainder of the season. Looks about as even a trade as you can get from the numbers perspective.

Dave Bush was streaky as could be so I'm not surprised that he would put a solid month together every now and then. But to think that Suppan actually had a good month as a Brewer...I had to look that up and see for myself. Suppan was 5-0 that month with a 3.00 ERA. Not so sure how he actually got to that 3.00 ERA? He threw 42 innings and gave up 8 home runs and only struck out 16 during that stretch. Looks like lady luck was on his side for an entire month with peripherals like that.

I'd be very interested in Asdrubal Cabrera if he could still play shortstop, which is something I don't think he can do anymore. Certainly would trust his bat way, way more than any of the middle infielders the Brewers have now.

No offense my friend, but if you are looking to invest 500k+ then there are two things that you should absolutely not be doing. #1 is asking a bunch of anonymous people on a message board about how to invest. #2 is making investments heavily dependent on low management fees which appears to be what you are doing here. If your girlfriend's family has an financial advisor/investment broker they trust, then I would recommend using that individual's knowledge. For the record, I do not work in the financial industry.

Machado has been bad at shortstop this year and it's largely offset much of the value he brings with the bat. Fangraphs has him as a 2.8 WAR player so far this year, Baseball Reference is at 1.8. Take the average (2.3) and extrapolate that to the end of the season and it comes out to 5.3. So if a team trades for him with the intent to play shortstop, he should be valued as good for 3 wins from now until the end of the season. 1 WAR = 9.16 million 3 WAR * 9.16 million = 27.48 million Machado earns 16 million this year, which means he's due approximately 9 million for the remainder of the season. 27.48 - 9 = 18.48 million in surplus value Fair trade for Machado would be something like: 1. Machado straight up for Corbin Burnes 2. Machado for Corey Ray and Cody Ponce OR Trey Supak plus a lower regarded fringe (not top 50 in organization) prospect 3. Machado for Cody Ponce and Trey Supak and Jake Gatewood plus a lower regarded fringe (not top 50 in organization) prospect Machado likely goes for more than this but, if so, the numbers say it would be a bad deal from the Brewer's end of it. If a team like the Red Sox want to pick him up to play third base, then it would make sense for them to pay much more because his value as a third baseman would be much greater than at shortstop.