JosephC

Neshek keeps rolling right along but his age is starting to be a concern. Wouldn't mind targeting him at all but would want to limit it to a one-year deal.

I don't think the Brewers have enough arms at this point even when counting the young guys. It's very unlikely that Burnes and Ortiz will start next season in the majors regardless of their minor league numbers or placement on top prospect lists. At best the Brewers do see them as major league contributors but even so will likely want their innings limited early in the season and will want to play the service time game with them and avoid calling them up until a couple months into the season. I'm only counting 8 arms that I have confidence in. Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Brent Suter, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Barnes, Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel. Personally I'm not real big on Jared Hughes but would agree that he is good enough where he could be #9. After that the guys I would classify as insurance would be Junior Guerra (coming off a bad year I'll assume he could get DFA'ed and would accept a spring training invitation), Tyler Webb, Aaron Wilkerson, Taylor Williams. That would put the Brewers up to 9 solid MLB options and 13 total with the "insurance policy" pitchers. But I think a team should be at about 13 MLB options and 16 total when entering spring training. And let's say the Brewers did go into next season with only the 13 pitchers that I named and then had Burnes and Ortiz as options #14 and #15, that would mean 8 of their 15 pitching options would have <1 year of MLB experience and IMO that's banking on the idea that too many young players can get the job done. As for some of the other pitchers on the 40 man roster like Jungmann, Lopez and Wang...their usage last year is a pretty strong indicator of what the Brewers currently think about them (not much) so I think odds are strong that they are out of the mix as MLB options (injuries to other pitchers could change that). I firmly believe if the Brewers want to maintain/improve on that win total from last year that they need to acquire a minimum of 2 and preferably 3 veteran pitchers this off-season.

I had omitted Chatwood during the initial look-through as I think that contract is way lower than what he'll actually get. But if his numbers really are 3 years, 20 million then he would be near the top of my want list along with Swarzak and Hunter.

I'd guess something like a 3 player package that would include Mauricio Dubon + Cody Ponce or Trey Supak + an attractive fringe prospect like Zack Brown.

I really like Anthony Swarzak (2 years, 14 million) and Tommy Hunter (2 years, 12 million) with those contracts. I also think Alex Avila (2 years, 16 million) and Neil Walker (2 years, 20 million) would be solid buys. Not really interested in any of the other deals listed on this page.

Positives: -Effective MLB pitcher. 3.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 109 ERA+ in 475 1/3 major league innings. -Was good when on the mound in 2017. 3.77 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 111 ERA+ in 126 2/3 innings. The FIP was a high 4.74 but was elevated due to a high HR/FB ratio (18.6%), the xFIP was 4.14. -Was very consistent when on the mound in 2017. Worst monthly ERA was 4.73 in June, second worst monthly ERA was 4.20 in September. Negatives: -Significant injury history (torn labrum in 2015). -Is now a five innings/start type pitcher. Even if he stays relatively healthy he probably tops out at about 150 innings. -Cannot pitch out of the bullpen. Past injury requires extensive warmup routine which makes using him as a regular reliever impossible. He will make 7 million dollars in 2018 and then the contract has ended. Ryu seemingly has no value to the Dodgers. Even if the Dodgers make no pitching moves this offseason they will return Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, Wood and McCarthy. Kazmir was rehabbing in A ball at the end of the year so either he or McCarthy are likely starter #6. Buehler and Stewart are quality insurances pieces so they are at least 8 players deep for rotation candidates. Ryu also has it in his contract that he cannot be sent to the minors without his consent, IMO that makes it almost impossible for him to be in the Dodger's organization on opening day. They will likely try to trade him and if not he becomes a prime DFA candidate unless he agrees to go the minors (and it needs to be mentioned that he is a Scott Boras client). Ryu is fairly attractive when looking at those "bottom of the market" candidates because he's actually performed well when on the mound. But the negatives are so significant that they probably do knock him down to a "bottom of the market" type player. The contract is probably high enough to scare all of the smaller market teams that has limited budget space and would bigger market teams have that much interest in him when stacked against free agent starters and other starters that are also on the trade block? It's hard to project him at anything more than a 1 WAR pitcher at this point so when looking at the surplus value angle his value on the market should really only be 1 fringe prospect. If there turns out to be no market for Ryu it's not crazy to think a team that would be interested in trading for him could ask the Dodgers to include some money in the deal. I'd hope Ryu could provide quality innings for the Brewers through the first couple months, at least get to the point where if he did start having some physical issues that either Ortiz or Burnes would then be ready for their big league shot. I certainly wouldn't be looking at Ryu as option A, but if the pitching market is commanding real high prices a couple weeks into free agency then Ryu might be an alright plan B.

I think MLBTradeRumors kind of dropped the ball on this one. Their "write-up" of the story pretty much indicates the Marlins will be in all-out dump mode with Stanton, Gordon and Prado, but I really don't get that impression from reading the source article. http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article181739531.html I read it as more of the typical situation regarding teams that want to cut payroll, trade the big contract guys and keep the lower-priced players. Can completely buy into the idea that a team could get Gordon at a bargain price. But when cranking the math Gordon comes up with a +50 million surplus value which is a bit unbelievable but that's what the numbers are. It's very doubtful the Marlins would even consider getting a number close to that back for Gordon, but the number is high enough to convince me that they would have to be flat out idiots to trade Gordon for next to nothing this off-season. I'd say they should get back a minimum of 20 million in surplus value, which would roughly be a back end of the top 100 prospect or two very solid "top 10 organizational prospects." Anything less than that and they would be fools to trade him. At that point you go into the season with him and then hope 2 or 3 starting second basemen get hurt and another 1 or 2 younger second basemen aren't performing well and then a reasonable market develops for Gordon. And I still don't like committing to a veteran second baseman for 3 years. There are too many solid second base possibilities in the Brewer's minor league system to commit to a veteran for 3 years.

If Broxton still has all this upside then keep him. Option either Brinson/Phillips to AAA and the other one stays and is the fourth outfielder, and the fourth infielder still should get plenty of at-bats with Braun likely to miss a significant number of games. If Broxton fulfills all this untapped potential, then dealing him now would be a huge sell-low mistake because he is coming off a bad year.

If all five outfielders are kept it's not a given that Phillips or Brinson is a fifth outfielder. That fifth outfielder could easily turn out to be Broxton. I'm still for keeping all five and if Broxton comes out and sets the world on fire then between Phillips and Brinson, whichever of the two would turn out to be the fifth outfielder could then be optioned to the minors. I believe both of them still have 2 options left. I also don't think Broxton carries much of any trade value. .220/.299/.420/.719, 86 OPS+ -9 DRS, -4.0 UZR/150 2017 average WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs = +0.55 There is nothing there that makes me think Broxton would be desirable as the major piece in a deal. If the Brewers want anything for real value they will have to package a good prospect or two in a deal with Broxton.

Tanaka has an opt-out that he may exercise so he may be a free agent. If he doesn't exercise the opt-out, he has full no-trade protection so it's nearly impossible to think he would approve a deal to Milwaukee. His contract calls for 67 million over the next three years which would likely kill most of the Brewer's interest. And on top of all of that, it's been reported that he has a partial ligament tear in his elbow. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/tanaka-brilliant-game-leads-questions-opt-out-clause-article-1.3550237

I'd do a Betances for Villar deal in about a 1/2 second but I think the demand on the open market would demand far, far more than Villar. I don't think a back-end of the top 100 prospect plus another role player prospect would be out of the question. I do think it makes sense for the Yankees to move him after the Randy Levine situation from last year. Add in that the Yankees picked up the two relievers from the White Sox and could very well go back and pick up another reliever in free agency, it actually is the perfect time for them to deal Betances.

Anybody have problems with giving Lynn a 2 year, 38 million dollar deal? I don't think that would be a bad contract offer from the Brewer's end. But when it gets to four or five guaranteed seasons then I am out. Considering he is coming off of a down year after missing the previous season, maybe the best scenario for both sides would be to have a two year guaranteed deal with a couple mutual option seasons tacked on the end. Lynn returns to 2013-2015 form and he can walk away after the 2019 season. If he has another injury or is pitching poorly then the team can walk away after the 2019 season. If the big offers don't come that would seem pretty good (I do think at least one team will step up and get to at least 3 years, 50 million). Something like: 2018 = 18 million 2019 = 18 million 2020 = 20 million (mutual option, Lynn can opt out or the Brewers can buyout the last two years for 2 million) 2021 = 20 million (mutual option, Lynn can opt out or the Brewers can void the last year of deal) Personally, I'm still for trolling the bottom of the market and seeing if I could find something cheaper. But I wouldn't be a bit upset if the Brewers did something like I outlined above. The last two years are concerning, but in the three previous season's Lynn pitched an average of 193 innings per season with a 3.25 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 1.31 WHIP and 115+ ERA. If he hits those numbers again then the 19 million per season is a bargain price.

It's all different now and depends on things like if the team that signed him is paying the luxury tax or is receiving revenue sharing funds. For the big spending teams, the penalties for signing a qualifying offer player is much higher. Basically for the Brewers, if they sign a qualifying offer player they would lose their third highest pick. If they would sign a second player that received a qualifying offer, they would also lose their fourth highest pick. http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

I don't doubt that Lance Lynn could get a five year deal, but I think it would be crazy for the Brewers to do that. Numbers indicate his most effective pitch is his fastball, and according to the Pitch Info Pitch Velocity his fastball has dropped from 93.8 (2014) to 93.2 (2015) to 92.6 (2017). He's already in his 30's and had one major elbow injury. He's only pitched in one season since that injury and posted a 4.82 FIP with a decreased strikeout rate, an increased walk rate and a HR/9 number that was nearly double his total in 2015 even though his HR/FB ratio was below league average (it was 14.2%, I think the league average was 14.8% this year but that is the number I'm not completely sure of). Overall he looks a lot better than Jake Odorizzi. But like Odorizzi, almost all of his peripheral numbers scream to stay away. Maybe 3 years, 48 million would be a reasonable figure for the Brewer's organization but there is little doubt a big market team will blow that offer away. I especially hate the idea of an opt-out. How would that be beneficial to the Brewers? He pitches like an ace and then just walks away from the contract after the Brewers took the risk of offering a multi-year deal. Or he pitches as bad as Garza and then the Brewers are stuck with him and are grossly overpaying him for the last 2 or 3 years of the contract. Opt-outs are nothing but win-win for players. The Brewers just don't have the payroll advantages to put themselves in lose/lose situations and that's all an opt-out is.

1. Lewis Brinson 2. Brandon Woodruff 3. Brett Phillips 4. Luis Ortiz 5. Isan Diaz 6. Keston Hiura 7. Corey Ray 8. Corbin Burnes 9. Trent Clark 10. Lucas Erceg 11. Mauricio Dubon 12. Freddy Peralta 13. Monte Harrison 14. Tristen Lutz 15. Marcos Diplan 16. Phil Bickford 17. Josh Pennington 18. Jake Gatewood 19. Jacob Nottingham 20. Cody Ponce 21. KJ Harrison 22. Trey Supak 23. Aaron Wilkerson 24. Taylor Williams 25. Bubba Derby -------------------- 26. Adrian Houser 27. Troy Stokes Jr. 28. Caden Lemons 29. Kodi Medeiros 30. Mario Feliciano

Odorizzi's BABIP number was a ridiculous .227 and that is not likely to repeat itself. Put that at a league average number and the hits/9 and the ERA goes way up. His biggest problem last year was the home run ball, nearly 2 per 9 innings pitched. But his HR/FB ratio was only 15.5% which was just slightly above league average, so the amount of home runs allowed wasn't really a fluke number. His ground ball percentage was 30.6% but it's been under 40% every year in his career. Put all the numbers together and his FIP was 5.43. He does have a history of pitching better than the FIP but over the last three year's his ERA has gone from 3.35 to 3.69 to 4.14. See my previous post on Odorizzi, I'm not opposed to acquiring him if the price is right. But the majority of numbers strongly indicate he's a guy to stay away from.

I wouldn't dismiss the idea. Every number you look at screams stay away from Odorizzi but he's still only 27 and it wouldn't be crazy to see him bounce back and be a solid middle of the rotation guy. The price tag on him should be reasonable because he is coming off a bad year. I'd guess the Rays would expect to see about 25 million in surplus value headed back their way which would be something like Luis Ortiz/Freddy Peralta OR Corbin Burnes/Trent Clark/fringe prospect. More than I would be willing to go. But if they could be talked down to something like Keon Broxton/Mauricio Dubon/Trey Supak...that would be a deal I would make. Odorizzi had a bad year last year and the peripherals were terrible so I just don't see a bidding war happening for him.

I'm still trying to figure out where all of these major league ready outfielders are? 1 - Braun, 2 - Santana, 3 - Broxton, 4 - Phillips, 5 - Brinson Who else? Looks like there are 5 MLB ready outfielders and since most teams carry 5 outfielders I would say the Brewers have just the right number. Considering Braun's injury problems and the idea that between Broxton, Phillips, Brinson...one of them is likely not to have a good MLB year next year...I would think there would be enough outfield at-bats to go to the players that are playing well. I like the idea of keeping all five. Braun and Santana are penciled in for starting spots, and playing time goes to the centerfielder who earns it in spring training. About the only negative (and I think it's a minor point), is that if Phillips wins the starting spot then both backup outfielders are right-handed bats. But if Broxton or Brinson wins the spot, then one bench outfielder swings left-handed and the other swings right-handed, and both could play any of the outfield spots. Real good situation to be in. I don't understand why there would be a need to trade any of them. With the way things go it's a darn near lock that is one is traded, then Braun will get hurt right away and one of the remaining three completely bombs which means they would only have two outfielders that can play and then Brewer fans will get to see Hernan Perez rack up over 400 plate appearances again next year.

I don't like the idea of adding more teams. There were two teams last year that averaged under 20,000 fans per game and another five that were under 25,000 fans per game. I am not a fan of contraction but when looking at situations like Tampa Bay I have to wonder if it's really a good idea to have a team there? I'm not a fan of moving franchises either but it just seems like common sense for the Tampa Bay franchise to move to Portland rather than adding yet another team and thinning out the major league talent across the league.

Danny Duffy...If I'm the Royals I'd start by asking for Brinson and Hader for Duffy and would expect that to get shot down. In the end the minimum I would take to move Duffy would be Isan Diaz, Josh Hader and Brandon Woodruff. reviewingthebrew.com article...What motivation would the Royals have to trade for two guys that both had sub-.300 OBP's and sub-.720 OPS's and bad defensive metrics (OK, Villar was a +1 DRS while playing 2b) in 2017?

I can't remember the exact history of Nick Neugebauer? I remember he got hurt but can't remember if he was good, then got hurt and couldn't make it back...or if he wasn't pitching very well as a major leaguer even before he got hurt. But man did he ever look like the real deal when coming up through the minors.

I bet the majority of MLB teams would have Braun rated as a negative surplus value player and Villar as less than a 1 WAR player moving forward. Those two things probably means Joe Panik has more value than Braun and Villar combined. If I were the Giants and had a left field opening, I would still not trade Panik for Braun and Villar. Anyway, the Giants are moving Span to left field and Pence will probably be splitting time between left and right field. Braun makes no sense as a part time right fielder considering it's not his best defensive position and the salary that comes along with him. Braun makes no sense for the Giants, just like he doesn't make any sense for any MLB team not named the Brewers.

It all depends on how the Rays would view Santana moving forward. He was a legitimate 3.0+ WAR player this year but was literally a negative WAR MLB player entering this season. I would anticipate the majority of MLB teams would expect him to regress next year. Just cranking the numbers, if Santana is about a 2.4 WAR player over the next four seasons then an Archer for Santana/Ortiz/Ray looks like a pretty even trade. If the Rays don't see Santana as a steady 2.4+ WAR player over the next few years then I don't think the Brewers could swing a trade for Archer without Brinson being piece #1. Personally I would guess the Rays would rather have a second baseman to pair with Willy Adames and would prefer Brinson over Santana. I think they'd ask for a Lewis Brinson/Luis Ortiz/Isan Diaz package for Archer and in terms of surplus value this would be a pretty even trade. As a side note, it's interesting how Baseball Reference's WAR value is so low on Archer over the last two years (1.8 and 1.2). Fangraphs has Archer as a 3.2 and 4.6 WAR player in the same two seasons. His average WAR value between the two sites over the last three years is as follows: 2015 = 4.75, 2016 = 2.5, 2017 = 2.9, 3 year average = 3.4. I projected him as a 3.6 WAR player from 2018 through 2020 and then a 3.1 WAR player in 2021. Doing so would put his total value at 140.8 million and he's scheduled to make 33.75 million which would put his surplus value at 107.05 million. That puts him right in the same area that Jose Quintana was.

Hamels can block a trade to 20 clubs each season and so far he's had Milwaukee on the no-trade list every season. Would have to think he'd demand the 2019 season be turned into a player option in order to approve a trade to Milwaukee. Over the last three years his average yearly WAR between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference is 3.0. WAR was lower last year but he missed time due to injury, but over the course of his career has proven to be very durable (averaged 210+ innings per season over the previous 9 years). I'd probably project him as a 3 WAR pitcher in 2018 and a 2.5 WAR pitcher in 2019. Doing so would place his value at 51.98 million. He's scheduled to make 42.5 million over those seasons, so his surplus value is a pretty low +9.48 million. Would have to think some team would be willing to give up more than that. But if Rangers were looking to trade him and 15 million in prospect value was all it took to obtain him, then I'd be interested. His velocity dropped last year which may limit his market but he's pitched successfully with lower velocity in the past (check out 2011-2013). But I'd feel really good about a rotation that started with Hamels, Anderson, Davies and Woodruff...and the bullpen would get a big boost because then I could pencil in Hader back there to begin the season.

Matt Moore has been bad the last three years but not as bad as Garza. 2015-2017 Matt Moore = 4.85 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 84 ERA+, 3.3 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 2.30 K/BB 2015-2017 Matt Garza = 5.10 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 81 ERA+, 3.4 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.83 K/BB Would have agreed that Moore is as every bit as washed up as Garza had Moore not had that decent string of 13 starts late in the season.