JosephC

Too many guys in the second base pipeline. Not a fan of making a 3 year commitment to any veteran second baseman.

I like the farm system enough where I wouldn't be especially motivated to deal anyone. I would listen to offers for Knebel only because of the up and down nature of the majority of relievers. He was a 3+ WAR player in 2017 so he really should hold near premier reliever value. I don't think any team would come up with a good enough offer for me to deal him. As crazy as this sounds, if he maintains a 3.2 WAR average over the next four season his surplus value is probably in the 60 million dollar range. He wouldn't bring near that much value in a trade but asking for a Sonny Gray type package isn't at all crazy when cranking the numbers. It would take that type of offer for me to deal him. There were obvious issues with Jeffress, Smith and Thornburg so trading those guys probably wouldn't have made a difference with all the bullpen problems the Brewers had. But how often is it wise for the Brewers to empty out their bullpen? If Knebel is traded and Hader is moved to the rotation, then the back of the bullpen is once again a huge question mark and the organization struggles for the first few weeks trying to put a workable situation back together. I'm not a strict hold on Knebel, but when considering this I don't think I'd have any interest in dealing him unless the other team came up with 50 million in surplus value. Minimum 1 "top 100" prospect plus 2 "top 10 organizational prospects." Don't see another team making that type of offer.

https://sports.yahoo.com/john-coppolellas-resignation-just-start-atlanta-braves-problems-230643724.html The rumblings about this situation have really exploded over the last couple days and it appears that Coppolella and the Braves were breaking just about every rule in the book. Bundling contracts for international free agents. Bringing international free agents into USA prior to signing deals. Signing international free agents under the age requirement. Cutting under-the-table deals with below-slot draft selections. Tampering with major league free agents to-be while they were still under contract with other clubs. It's so bad that I didn't know where to put this topic. Major Leagues? Minor Leagues? MLB Draft/International Talent? The topic could have gone anywhere! With what happened with the Red Sox it's almost a guarantee that rookie league SS-Kevin Maitan (#38 prospect on MLB's top 100 prospect list) will be declared a free agent and there will be severe penalties for the Braves in the international market (minimum 1 year ban plus maybe penalties for following seasons?). With the other allegations surrounding the draft and free agents, it's very possible that the Braves will also be giving up some draft picks. Have to admit that it is disappointing to see the news this morning that Dayton Moore is likely leaving the Royals and heading to the Braves. I realize the Royals are looking at major free agent losses but Moore and the Royals seemed like a match made in heaven. Atlanta is definitely a better market but it appears he's stepping into a major hornet's nest. I wonder if Stearns will get in the Maitan sweepstakes? When those Red Sox signings were declared free agents they still were subject to bonus pool restrictions, so it's not likely a team like the Dodgers will just be able to throw a 30 million dollar contract in Maitan's direction.

Does there figure to be a Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper talent in the 2018 draft? I'm not sure if there was really that big of a difference in talent between the #1 pick and the #5 pick in the 2017 draft. The biggest negative impact for the Giants could be the loss of the additional bonus pool money that comes with the first pick instead of the difference in quality between the #1 player and the #2 player.

I guess I don't see what the problem is with having Braun, Broxton, Santana, Phillips and Brinson as the team's five outfielders next season. With injuries there will likely be enough at-bats to go around. If they all stay healthy there probably will be at least one that won't hit and will get more time on the bench than the rest. I'd keep 'em all and be pretty happy with the group. Only thing that would make me change my mind is if a team gave up a pretty decent package for Braun (won't happen), and even then my motivation for moving him would be more for unloading his contract rather than just trying to create another outfield opening. With Cordell gone it appears that the next outfield prospects are still 1.5 to 2 seasons away from the majors so it's not like this group of five are blocking any top prospects.

I'm pretty sure the Giants already announced that they are picking up the option on Moore. I had written off Moore for dead but he actually strung together a pretty good run during the second half only to have it all fall apart in a true blow-up start to finish off the season (7 earned runs in 1 1/3rd inning). But in the prior 13 starts he posted a mediocre 4.46 ERA but the WHIP was a nice 1.25 and the K/BB ratio was 2.87. Not saying it would be a good idea for the Brewers to trade Braun for him but Moore might be a pretty decent candidate to try and pick up in a deal and see if he figures it out. Will still only be 28 years old when next season starts.

IMO the opt-out in Stanton's deal will make a trade very difficult. Is a team trading for 3 seasons or for 10 seasons? Nobody knows. How can one value him when not knowing if he'll be controlled for 3 seasons or be controlled for 10 seasons? See post #16 in following topic: viewtopic.php?f=66&t=35761 Personally I'd find Stanton an easy pass for a small-market team. He's just missed way too many games in the past. Dodgers, Yankees, Angels can afford to take these types of big gambles, I don't think the Brewers can.

Since I made a post 10 days ago Braun's OPS has dropped from .863 down to .819 and among qualifiers would now rank 57th (down from 36th) out of 146. Nearly 40% of league qualifiers rank above him. Braun doesn't have the look of still being a "special" hitter, at least how I would define special. What is interesting is the guy who sits right above him in OPS. Puig = .260/.340/.480/.820, Fangraphs WAR = 2.6, Baseball Reference WAR = 3.4 Braun = .267/.336/.483/.819, Fangraphs WAR = 1.4, Baseball Reference WAR = 1.1

Wow, I don't really see anything about Phillips I dislike. I'll live with the strikeouts as long as the guy can get on base and Phillips is doing that. Definitely has a chance to be a plus outfielder at any of the three spots and throw in 5 steals in just 34 games.

Absolute no to Jeffress as a starter. The Brewers and KC toyed with that for so long and I really felt it negatively impacted his development as a major league pitcher. That whole thing was a complete failure and it doesn't make any sense to revisit it now that his fastball velocity has started to drop. A month ago I was a heavy lean against putting Hader in the rotation largely because I felt comfortable with Nelson/Anderson/Davies/Woodruff leading the rotation and hated the outlook for the bullpen. Just felt with the way the roster was shaping up that Hader would be more valuable as a bullpen piece. But now with Nelson out, I don't think the Brewers can replace him with a potential back-end of the rotation piece. They have to find upside and shoot high to fill that vacancy. Free agent candidates or trade possibilities will cost too much, so Hader seems like the best candidate to do that. I hate moving him out of the bullpen because it leaves a total wreck there but it will probably need to be done out of necessity. My rotation would project to be Anderson/Davies/Woodruff/Hader and the projected fifth piece would be Suter/cheap free agent on one year deal (loser of the #5 spot competition to bullpen in long relief and #6 starter). However, I would not count out Burnes (although I would much rather start him in the minors and limit his early season innings), Guerra (after his poor performance this year I will assume that he'd be back with the Brewers in spring training next year) and Wilkerson. All are given a fair chance to win the fifth spot, but I have to say I wouldn't be that thrilled with the idea of having a bullpen full of players like Suter, Guerra and Wilkerson. So as far as the pen there is Knebel, Jeffress, Barnes (not good at the end of this year but there still is upside there) and whoever loses the 5th starter competition (Suter or cheap free agent). So that's 3 or 4 spots that need to be filled. Would love to have Swarzak back and hope Stearns goes after him pretty aggressively. Could live with or without Hughes. Hate to just pencil Taylor Williams in assume he could get it done but may be forced to do so. Personally this is where I'd spend the money this off-season and in addition to Swarzak would add a couple Feliz-type contracts but hopefully get a couple hits and not a couple of misses like Feliz. But there appears to be significant work that needs to be done here, especially if Hader is viewed as a starter.

Thing that pushes me away from the Chatwood idea is that he broke into the majors in 2011 and to this point his high mark in MLB innings pitched is only 158. But there are enough numbers where I can see why people would be interested in him at 3 years, 24 million although I would estimate his next deal to be much greater than that. The lack of innings will probably limit the length of the deal but he's young enough where he should get at least 3 years. I'd guess the number will be something more like 3 years, 42-45 million. I'd figure teams would probably view him, at worst, as a 1.5 WAR type projection and when doing that it's hard to see him getting paid anything under 12 million per season.

And I'm all for that. I can handle one year of Braden Looper. Four years of Jeff Suppan...no thanks!

Really feel bad for Jimmy. With all the talk about the Brewer's payroll and how they will add to it, I was sort of figuring Stearns first move was probably going to be giving Nelson a four year contract that would have covered the arbitration years and first year of free agency. Injury couldn't have happened as a worse time for him. Best wishes to him and hopefully the rehab goes well.

Depends on how one defines "special." Personally I would say no. Wouldn't say OPS is the definitive measure of offensive performance but it's a good place to start. Braun's current season OPS is .863. Currently there are 149 qualifiers and if Braun was on that list he would rank 36th. That's good, in fact really good, but IMO not special. Domingo Santana currently has an .864 OPS and I wouldn't call him special. I'd reserve that term for the guys like Harper and Altuve, at this point in his career Braun is too far down the list. He's talented, it wouldn't surprise me to see him rebound and have one more season where he plays in 140 games, hits 35+home runs and OPS's ~.950 for the season, but there is a pretty good chance that his last big season will have been in 2016. From 2014-2017 (just shy of a four year run), his slash line sits at .284/.349/.499/.848 which again is very good but isn't at an elite level. Thames, Santana, Shaw all pretty much performing at that level this year.

Here is how I see it shaking out. Otani signs with the Yankees for something like a 1 to 1.5 million dollar bonus. As the result of a secret, under-the-table deal, Otani magically gets a 8 year, 256 million dollar extension after his first year of major league service. MLB acknowledges that there is no real way they can enforce the spirit of international signing limits, and an international draft is instituted within the next 3 or 4 years. ------------------------------------------ I also don't think there is any chance that Otani sees regular MLB at-bats if he proves to be a legitimate #1 or #2 starter. Risk getting hit in the hand by a pitch and sliding into bases? See Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson. A team can give him any line of crap in order to get him signed, but when he gets out to the mound if he's hitting 100+ MPH 40 times in one start (which he has apparently done in Japan) and is getting MLB hitters out, his days of getting semi-regular at-bats on non-pitching days will soon become a thing of the past. Now if the guy proves to be a #4/#5 type back-end starter, then I could see him getting regular at-bats/pinch-hitting opportunities provided the guy can legitimately hit (say an OPS of .750+).

My my how Garza has fallen. Safe to say that Garza is now only on the roster for relief appearances in extreme mop-up duty (as in the Brewers being down by 8+ runs)?

I wouldn't consider the Tigers in particular to be a tanking team. They were obviously a below average team and their future outlook was not very bright, so they traded away some upcoming free agents and aging players with large contracts. That's just smart for a team that obviously needed to rebuild. If anything, the fact that they held Verlander an extra month shows that they were willing to hold out at long as they could to see if the team could be competitive. If people want to use the word "tank" it's best applied to the San Diego Padres. Kept three Rule V players on their roster the entire year, and none of them had any business being in the majors. -Miguel Diaz = 37 2/3 innings pitched, 6.21 ERA, 1.51 WHIP -Luis Torrens = 118 at bats, .169/.246/.212./.458 -Allen Cordoba = 191 at bats, .209/.284/.304/.587 I was annoyed enough when the Brewers did this with Wang as once it got a couple months into the season it was obvious that his spot on the team was really wearing on the bullpen and left the manager shorthanded. But to do this with three players, none of which had any business in being above A ball this year?! IMO a crappy move to do that to Padre season ticket holders. This is the definition of tanking. I've always liked the Rule V concept because it's provides a chance for a blocked AAAA player in one organization to get his chance to play in the majors in another organization and potentially help the team. It's not there for major league teams to waste MLB seasons on A-ball players who weren't considered by their previous organizations to have the upside to protect by addition to the 40 man roster. Again, IMO a real low class move by the Padres to do this to their paying customers. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And not to hijack this thread from the Indians. Pretty incredible when looking at some of the numbers. Since the All-Star Break they've used seven different pitchers to start games, and the worst ERA among those seven pitchers over that timeframe is 3.46. Highest ERA among the seven most used relievers since the All-Star break is 3.67 (doesn't include Andrew Miller as he only had 12 appearances since the break...and 4 of those 7 relievers has an ERA of 2.57 or less). The batters have slashed .266/.345/.465/.810 since the All-Star break, only the Cubs and Twins have scored more runs. Really incredible run. Their fans just have to hope that they didn't peak a month too early and it will all come crashing down as soon as they get into the playoffs.

If the Giants really think Moore is a great investment at 9 million and aren't really motivated to trade him, then I'd have no interest. Definitely wouldn't be willing to trade Ortiz OR Phillips for him. Was thinking more along the line of a couple fringe prospects. Moore had a decent 2016 and has been good towards the end of 2017, but his overall numbers from 2015-2017 are as follows: 4.75 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 86 ERA+, 1.40 WHIP covering 424 innings. There are some things that make Moore appear more attractive than his current ERA. His K/BB ratio has been very good in the second half of this season. Last year he had a very respectable 4.08 ERA and his BABIP number was .285 which is right around an average number. This season the BABIP number is .316 which may play a factor in the poor ERA (note, current season ERA is 5.31 but FIP is 4.66). On the negative side, he's had a real dip in fastball velocity. Last year was 93.7, this year is at 92.4. But interestingly, it appears his velocity has dropped over the later part of the season but his performance has actually improved. I can't blame the Giants for wanting to keep him, especially with a possible Cueto opt-out looming. But if trading for Moore, I really don't see him as a great value with a 9 million dollar salary and I personally wouldn't be willing to give up any substantial value to obtain him.

Interesting thing is that Gray has been excellent for the Yankees (7 starts, 2.74 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), but the Yankees are only 3-4 in games that he's started. In the four losses they've scored 1, 0, 1 and 1 runs. Kind of sounds like the Brewer's offense. Even with as well as Gray has been pitching, I'm not sure how much he would have helped this Brewer team unless he brought a .900+ OPS along with that 2.74 ERA. Hard to believe that the offense has become such a big problem for Milwaukee in the second half of the year.

Don't forget Jeffress. ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.20 since rejoining the Brewers.

How about putting the Sonny Gray stuff in the following: viewtopic.php?f=63&t=35672&start=60 and keeping this thread on it's original topic?

I'd like to see them go with Jungmann and have him on a short leash. Unfortunately it's likely going to be a few more starts for Garza. But who knows, maybe Garza rises to the challenge and exceeds expectations? He should be plenty motivated, because as of right now I don't think it's a slam-dunk that he gets a major league deal for 2018. Pitching well over the remainder of this season would go a long way in helping his chances.

It's not a crazy idea. The off days couldn't have fallen at worse times, I don't think it allow the Brewers to skip the fifth starter so it's probably likely that Garza will get four starts (unless he bombs so bad in starts 1 and 2 that the Brewers go to someone like Jungmann for the last couple starts). I had given up Matt Moore for dead earlier in the year but since the All-Star break he's posted a pretty respectable 4.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 3.06 K/BB ratio. Would have to think with his poor first half that he was already put on waivers and cleared. If this was the last year of his deal the Brewers might have been able to just buy him from San Francisco. But instead he has a 9 million option for 2018 (1 million buyout) and then a 10 million option for 2019 (0.75 million buyout)...and with the way he's pitched in the second half the Giants may have been planning on picking up the 2018 option. He just isn't that good of a pitcher anymore, and it could be debated that he's not significantly better than Matt Garza (although the K/BB ratio since the All-Star break tells me that he has way more upside than Garza does). Over the last three season, the average WAR (between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs) for Moore is 0.8 (2015), 1.55 (2016), 0.7 (2017)...so roughly he is a 1 WAR pitcher which would put his value right in the area of the salaries of the option years. So the price should not be very high if the Giants would be open to trading him. Personally I would be hesitant to make this trade more because I wouldn't want to make a 9 million dollar investment in him next season, and I'm really not a fan of trading for him for only 4 starts and no possibility of seeing him in post-season. But of all the candidates that I could find, I do think Moore is the most attractive. Marco Estrada is not controlled beyond this season but at this point it's pretty likely the Brewers could just buy him from the Blue Jays. Estrada did throw 7 innings of shutout ball at Boston in his last start, but just prior to that he had been pretty bad (5.35 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in August). Not a fan of James Shields at all. Like Estrada he had a good outing his last time out (1 earned run in 7 innings against the Giants), but overall this year he has not been good. Since the All-Star break he has a 5.66 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Next year will be his age 36 season. I'd want no part of him even if the White Sox would pick up 75% of his remaining money.

I think Eliezer Alvarez is a better prospect than what is indicated in the MLB.com bio/ranking after having read through past bios in Baseball America Prospect Handbooks. Has the ability to play anywhere in the infield and is still improving as a defensive player. The Cardinals had him in rookie league ball for four seasons but when he got his first chance at A ball in 2016 he posted a .404 OBP and had 36 doubles. Offensive numbers regressed this season but he still ended with a respectable .247/.321/.382/.702 slash line which isn't bad when considering he had an ankle injury. He really struggled when first coming off the DL (was down to a .653 OPS at one point) but looked good over the last couple of weeks to bring those numbers up a bit by season's end. No way would I predict super-stardom for this player but he's a top 15 prospect in several different organizations and IMO a solid "role-player" type prospect. Obviously a completely different player than Jake Gatewood, but in terms of "prospect quality" I'd say Alvarez/Gatewood are about the same. Definitely not just a inconsequential piece thrown in a trade. I'm guessing the Cardinals probably have a 40-man roster crunch coming up which would explain the reason why they would give up Alvarez for just a few weeks of a reliever. Obviously I love what the Phillies accomplished here.

No question Thames has some value. But last year Scooter Gennett had some value too and the Brewers were unable to trade him. Even though his contract is very reasonable, who would want Thames? He is terrible in the outfield so he is limited to 1B/DH, and while the .348 OBP and 28 home runs looks great on paper I'm not really sure his bat "plays up" at either of those spots. I think the return would be pretty minimal...probably so minimal that it would probably be better for the Brewers to keep him and hope he can repeat the .348 OBP and 28 home runs. About the only teams that I see that would have any interest in Thames are Kansas City and Seattle. And Kansas City's interest would be dependent on Hosmer leaving. If the Brewers just go with a straight first base platoon right out of the gate with Thames and Aguilar it might be the best move: Thames against righties = .251/.369/.532/.901 Aguilar against lefties = .321/.383/.548/.931 Neither player has been very good lately but the entire sample size from 2017 indicates it could be a productive duo. Looking at the season statistics, 1B for the Brewers has an .885 OPS (9th best in MLB), .347 OBP (15th best in MLB), .538 SLG (8th best in MLB). It's frustrating that these guys have been bad lately, but they've been good enough where the Brewers shouldn't be looking to dump either of them for next to nothing. I'd be willing to give them another shot and work on areas like 2B/CF OBP, finding an insurance starter (not named Matt Garza!) and adding 3 different relievers to the bullpen.