JosephC

No doubt Votto can still play at an elite level and I think he projects well as a hitter for another 3 or 4 seasons. But he's at the age where one injury leads to another injury leads to another injury and each of these injuries means more time on the DL. If he stays healthy he'd be worth the money and the prospects the team would surrender to get him. But it's too risky for me. Thames is up and down and when going through a down time can be frustrating to watch. But looking at the whole picture with offensive production out of first base, this is how the Brewers stack up against the rest of MLB: -batting average = 14th (.263) -on base percentage = 10th (.355) -slugging percentage = 6th (.538) -OPS = 6th (.893) No question Votto would be a big upgrade but IMO it would involve throwing too many resources at an area that doesn't really need to be fixed.

The biggest contributor to Broxton's negative DRS is the plus/minus factor. His UZR/150 number is also on the negative side (-2.5) but looks much better than the DRS. DRS is also not innings adjusted. Broxton has played 810 1/3 innings in centerfield. Braun has played 484 innings in left field. If the amount of innings are taken into consideration then Thames is by far the worst performing Brewer outfielder in terms of DRS and Braun would be second worst.

I was surprised to see the outfield was a combined -4 (would have expected much worse). But it looks like Hernan Perez has saved the group from a pretty bad number. Perez is a +7 DRS as a left fielder and a +2 DRS as a right fielder. Total outfield DRS by player: Hernan Perez = +9 Lewis Brinson = +2 Nick Franklin = +1 Brett Phillips = +1 Kirk Nieuwenhuis = 0 Domingo Santana = 0 Ryan Braun = -4 Eric Thames = -5 Keon Broxton = -6

Nelson, Anderson, Woodruff, Davies, Garza, Suter They enter spring training with those 6 and by opening day the starting five situation will have worked itself out. It wouldn't surprise me to see Stearns go out and pick up another Milone-type for additional insurance. I think chances are overwhelming that Hader will begin next year as a reliever. He's done a great job this year and his 2018 value to the Brewers might be higher as a bullpen arm. I'd also be interested to see if giving him more regular work would get him more in a groove and help him work out some of his control issues. I'd guess the earliest we'd see Burnes is a September callup in 2018 unless injuries to other players force the Brewers to use him earlier. Guerra, big wild card but I'd guess we'd see the Brewers use him mostly as a reliever from here on out. If Stearns does not get another insurance starter this off-season then Guerra would probably fill that role. Does this guy have it in his arm to throw 190+ innings a year? That's a big and legitimate question. There is a good chance the Brewers view Aaron Wilkerson as fringy and he will only get a chance if the injuries wipe out the pitching staff. Not crazy to think that Stearns could view him as the 7th insurance-type starter. I think Jungmann is out with the Brewers. With Anderson getting hurt, Peralta crapping out, Guerra getting hurt, Garza being DL'ed, etc...there were numerous times the Brewers could have given Jungmann and opportunity especially since he's been pitching well and they never did. Have to think the Brewers view him as a minor league player at this point.

There are many evaluations of hitting in clutch situations, but as ennder states results for a certain hitter are generally mixed and not predictive of future outcomes. Some argue that it's generally just due to small sample sizes. For example, a hitter probably only sees 60-80 clutch plate appearances a season. If he goes 12-60 he's a .200 hitter in those situations and doesn't look good, but if he goes 18-60 then he's a .300 hitter in those situations and looks pretty good. One year he ends up with a 12-60 season and the next he has an 18-60 season? How much of that difference was due to good or bad luck? Is he a clutch hitter or isn't he? Take Braun in his prime years for example. Following are clutch factors as calculated by fangraphs. 2007 = -1.63 2008 = +0.83 2009 = +0.49 2010 = -0.32 2011 = +0.17 2012 = -0.87 Was Braun a clutch hitter or not during these seasons? Or take Albert Pujols during his 17 year career. He had mostly negative seasons during his early years and more positive seasons later in his career. But to take just a 5 year section: 2004 = -0.33 2005 = -1.64 2006 = +3.26 2007 = +0.38 2008 = -0.17 So was Pujols clutch during those seasons? Average stat line during those years was .335/.443/.631/1.064 with 41 home runs and 119 RBIs. Over his 17 years his total clutch factor +1.71, so +0.1 per season. I'm not an expert and wouldn't claim to know how much extra run generation can be attributed a clutch factor of +0.1 per season, but I'm guessing it's not significant. And when looking at year to year variability, his worst clutch season was 2005 and his best clutch season was 2006...back to back seasons. Was that due to him being a poor hitter in 2005 and was much improved in 2006? The overall statistics say no. Pujols was a great hitter during those seasons and any variability in clutch situations during those seasons would more likely be attributed to "circumstance" or "luck" or whatever term you wish to apply.

Looks like Walker will still be owed somewhere around 4.5 million for the last 1.5 months of the season. Mets probably kick in about 1 million and the Brewers still don't give up anything but a sub-fringe prospect. I like the OBP (.339) and think Walker could be a good fit at the top of the lineup, but he hasn't done that well as a righty hitter this year (.211/.300/.296/.596). But from 2014-2016 he was .283/.344/.427/.771 as a right handed hitter.

Chances are pretty good that Stearns would make a deal if he could get a second baseman/leadoff hitter or centerfielder/leadoff hitter for the same price that the Indians paid for Bruce. Bruce has been a productive player this year but is a free agent at season's end and the Mets save 3.7 million in this transaction. Apparently there are a lot of New York fans that aren't pleased about this because the Yankees made a better offer in terms of prospects but wanted the Mets to eat the rest of Bruce's contract, but the Mets decided to take Ryder Ryan because Cleveland was willing to take on the 3.7 million dollars. Pretty amazing that these big market teams will quibble about a few million dollars after most of them end up wasting 10's of millions on bad, long-term deals.

The more I watch this team, the more it appears that Stearns just didn't believe this team would have what it takes to make the playoffs even after a couple additions. Considering the 9-16 record since the All-Star break, it looks like he was probably right. Or maybe he thought they might just have enough to make the playoffs, but one injury could completely derail that. That lineup last night was flat out ugly after subtracting Shaw (best wishes to him and his family). They don't have a leadoff hitter so Santana is moved to the top. His OBP plays well there but his SLG is basically wasted since the two spots ahead of him are a terrible OBP Broxton and the pitcher's spot. Pina has done a great job for the Brewers this year but a cleanup hitter? Perez and his .263/.292/.436/.728 as a 5 hitter? Maybe the team gets lucky and hits a pitcher on his off-night, but I don't see a lineup like that hitting MLB pitching on a consistent basis. Sure it's only one game but that's a real ugly lineup for a team that is 1.5 game behind in the division.

Harrison's career line is almost identical to Hernan Perez's last two seasons, and Perez has as much versatility as Harrison. Obviously Perez would not command that type of return in trade, and his salary is a fraction of Harrison's and Perez is under control through 2020. Why would Harrison cost that much? Because Perez makes too many outs. His OBP in 2016/2017 is .299. Harrison's OBP in 2016/2017 is .330.

On the whole Villar had a July slash line at .217/.258/.265/.523. August is still young but not much positive for second base so far (these include all August plate appearances, not just the ones taken as a second baseman): Villar = .111/.111/.111/.222 Sogard = .000/.154/.000/.154 Perez = .280/.280/.400/.680 The 2B output for the year currently sits at .237/.304/.350/.654. 2B along with the OBP problems from the centerfield position have been the two biggest weak spots in the lineup.

Trying to take the most unbiased view of Matt Garza. Average yearly WAR between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. 2015 = -0.55 2016 = +0.55 2017 = +1.35 (when projected over a full season) 3-year average = +0.45 Estimated value per 1 WAR in 2018 = 9.15 million 9.15 x 0.45 = 4.12 million in value Even at a seemingly low 5 million salary, I would still have him as being on the minus side when looking at surplus value. And that would also assume no drop-off in performance. Since he will be in his age 34 season, most would likely expect a drop-off (despite him being better from 2015 to 2016 and from 2016 to 2017). IMO, the best a Brewer fans should expect in return is one fringe prospect (another organization's Clint Coulter or equivalent). If Stearns can find one team out there that things Garza will have a similar performance to 2017 in 2018, then maybe he could get a Cody Ponce type prospect but that would really be pushing the expectations.

Harrison would be super-expensive. His surplus value would be in the 45-50 million dollar range if he's projected at a 2.5 WAR player for each of the 2018-2020 seasons. The return for him should be higher than what the A's got for Sonny Gray. I'd say something like Luis Ortiz, Isan Diaz and Brett Phillips.

I had been a pretty big Kinsler supporter but am now thinking the biggest upgrade to the lineup wouldn't necessarily be to find a better bat at second base, but a better bat to hit #1 in the lineup. Not sure if Kinsler's .325 OBP would be what I'm looking for.

Not really interested in Lowrie. Having a good year but over the previous three seasons he was a .248/.317/.354/.671 hitter with a below average second base glove. Maybe for a couple fringe prospects like Aaron Wilkerson and Kyle Wren. I wouldn't do a straight up Lowrie for Villar swap.

He's like Braun was last year. The contract is an issue. The more of the contract that Detroit is willing to pick up, the better the return will be. If Detroit picks up something like 40 million they should get a pretty decent return, but if they are only willing to pick up something like 10 million the return probably wouldn't be good enough for them to consider trading him. Also have to assume that the team that makes the trade will have to guarantee the last year of Verlander's deal to get his approval for the move which is another big hurdle in completing a deal. Lots to overcome in all of this. Verlander is likely wearing a Tiger's uniform at the end of the year.

Hader will finish this season in the bullpen and I'd guess chances are about 90% that he's pegged for a bullpen job to begin 2018, what happens after that depends on him and how his control improves. I've honestly been so impressed with Hader's slider that I think he might actually be an effective starter with only two pitches. It can be done but obviously the pitcher needs to have really elite stuff. Greg Maddux was a fastball, change-up, curveball pitcher early in his career but when he hit his peak he went with fastball/change-up about 95% of the time and only threw something else 2 or 3 times a game for reasons unknown (probably just to mess with a hitter's mind). Randy Johnson was mainly fastball/slider during his peak years and really didn't throw much of anything else. I don't know if Hader's fastball movement/location will ever be good enough where he could get away with being a 2-pitch starter...but I'm already leaning towards thinking his slider could be that good.

I don't care how great any prospect looks, the Brewers would have to be completely nuts to move Suter out of the rotation with the way he's been pitching. 3.04 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.67 K/BB ratio. About the only thing that is questionable is his HR/FB% which is 8.2 and well below league average, but the xFIP should correct for some of that and his xFIP is still a very respectable 3.96. I have long-term doubts about Suter but the years have taught me that results are the bottom line and aren't to be argued with.

Good chance that Hiura's bat will be ready in the 2019 season. But has he played 1 inning of defense since the Brewers drafted him?

1. Lewis Brinson 2. Josh Hader 3. Luis Ortiz 4. Brandon Woodruff 5. Isan Diaz 6. Corey Ray 7. Keston Hiura 8. Brett Phillips 9. Trent Clark 10. Corbin Burnes 11. Mauricio Dubon 12. Phil Bickford 13. Lucas Erceg 14. Marcos Diplan 15. Freddy Peralta 16. Monte Harrison 17. Tristen Lutz 18. Jake Gatewood 19. Jacob Nottingham 20. Cody Ponce 21. Josh Pennington 22. KJ Harrison 23. Trey Supak 24. Caden Lemons 25. Kodi Medeiros ------------------------------- 26. Larry Ernesto 27. Mario Feliciano 28. Nathan Kirby 29. Jorge Lopez 30. Bubba Derby

Just because someone is picked up for basically nothing doesn't mean there isn't a real downside. Pitching bad and losing games is a real downside...If he pitches great, well then there is a real upside. I hope he turns it around and the Brewers get someone else out of it down the road, or better yet he sticks around and performs. In the end, it is about winning games. The only downside if he pitches worse than the player he replaces. Figuring he now "officially" replaces Paolo Espino (6.11 ERA), a 30-year old below replacement level pitcher, I'll stand by the statement that there is no real downside.

I absolutely love this move because I don't see any real downside to it. The player the Brewers gave up seems to be the longest of long shots. I don't care how anyone attributes this acquisition to who got bumped off the 25- or 40-man roster...if it was really a swap with Peralta or Nieuwenhuis...in the end a bad Jeffress will not be any worse than the player that would be occupying that spot. I do think this is more of a move for 2018 and 2019 but the potential is there for a real payoff. Hopefully he can hold his own for the rest of this season and rebound next year.

Agree with you LouisEly, seems like the A's really misplayed the market and perhaps screwed themselves in the end. And I also agree that his price should go down from here, but it is possible that if he pitches plus-plus for the next two months he will hold slightly less but still comparable value to what he has now. He is coming off a bad 2016 season and a really strong last two months would probably make trade partners feel a bit better about 2018 and 2019 than they feel now. On the other hand, if he got hurt in September it would be a complete disaster for the A's. I agree that the possible downside is much greater if the A's would have held onto him. That being said, I'd only move a player if I felt I got back proper value, and due to my concerns with Kapreilian I don't think the A's got proper value back.

My guess is also Straily. I was thinking he'd be a Brewer by the time I got home today and was pleasantly surprised it didn't happen. I really don't have anything against Straily and maybe time would have proven him to be a good pickup, but guys not even out of arbitration are almost guaranteed to carry a really high price-tag and I really didn't want the Brewers to go there.

This is my latest estimate of the prospect surplus value for players in the Brewer's system. The list includes Hader and Suter since they are such recent graduates. 66.34 million - Lewis Brinson (hitter 11-25) 22.042 million - Corey Ray, Isan Diaz (hitter 76-100) 17.655 million - Josh Hader (pitcher 51-75) 17.441 million - Keston Hiura (back end of top 100 hitter/barely outside list) 17.1735 million - Luis Ortiz, Brandon Woodruff (between pitcher 51-75 and pitcher 76-100) 12.84 million - Corbin Burnes (back end of top 100 pitcher/barely outside list) 10.7 million - Brett Phillips, Trent Clark, Mauricio Dubon, Lucas Erceg, Tristen Lutz, Monte Harrison ("top 10 organizational prospect") 7.49 million - Phil Bickford, Marcos Diplan, Freddy Peralta (between "top 10 organizational prospect" and "role player prospect") 5.35 million - Jacob Nottingham, Cody Ponce, Jake Gatewood, Brent Suter, KJ Harrison, Trey Supak ("role player prospect") 2.14 million - all other prospects ("fringe prospect") Get pieces that add up to 40-43 million and you've basically equaled what the Yankees gave up. Just don't do anything foolish like picking one of the 7.49 million players, adding in all six of the 5.35 million players and then throwing in a 2.14 fringe prospects and saying you are up to 41+ million. An eight for one deal wasn't going to happen. I'd say the rules are that player #1 has to be a minimum of a 17.1735 million dollar player, player #2 has to be a minimum of a 10.7 million dollar player and no more than 4 players total can be included. Follow those three rules, mix and match and IMO any combination that adds up to at least 40 million would have been a far and competitive offer for Gray.

reillymcshane and I had both done an analysis of Gray's estimated surplus value in the big Sonny Gray thread and both of us estimated his surplus value was in the neighborhood of 40 million dollars. Prospect surplus value for the players headed to Oakland: -Dustin Fowler = 22.042 million (easy estimate because he's in the 76-100 range on both the MLB.com list and on the Baseball America update) -Jorge Mateo = 10.7 million (top 10 organizational prospect, another easy estimate as he isn't in the top 100 on either list but few would argue that he's not organizational top 10 quality) -James Kaprielian = 10.7 million (top 10 organizational prospect, I would argue that he should be downgraded because of injury but I'd guess that the broad consensus opinion would still rate him as in this group) Total prospect surplus value = 43.442 million The money just slightly favors the A's, but then with international bonus money going back to New York then I would call this trade dead even from the numbers standpoint. In fact, I am surprised by how even this trade turned out to be. BUT.....(there is always one of those) Personally, if I were an A's fan I would absolutely hate this trade. Mainly because I am not big on James Kaprielian. I don't care how much upside a player has, if a pitcher is drafted in 2015 and only has a total of 56 innings at the end of the 2017 season...that's a huge question mark for me. Not to mention the last I heard is that Kaprielian is unlikely to be ready at the beginning of next season (should be ready a month or two into the season). And considering the A's did not get a top 50 type headliner in this deal, that makes the third piece in this deal a very important piece. And if the rumors were accurate, the player the A's really desired was Florial and they couldn't even pull him out of the deal...really comes off like they were resigned to trade Gray and in the end they let the big market team push them around and having everything dictated to them. Very disappointing. IMO doing a "hold" on Gray would have been an absolute no-brainer choice if this was the best deal that was offered.