JosephC

I think the 3-3-3 man model would work much better because of what you are saying. With the 4-4 model there needs to be some type of inclusion of legitimate starting pitchers. In a 3-3-3 man model the team could function with all relievers. MLB average this season is 38 plate appearances per game, so if the 3-3-3 is counted on for 7 1/3 innings on average it comes out to 31 batters per game, or roughly 10.3 hitters faced for each piece of the 3-3-3. There is no batters getting a third chance to see the same pitcher on the same day, and the number of batters that get to see a pitcher a second time on a day would be limited. Things that really mess with this model are the limited amount of relievers that would be available with a 25 man roster and the necessity to pinch-hit. If rule changes are eventually implemented there is plenty of data that shows this type of model could be a more effective model than the current one.

It's probably best for everybody if Peralta gets a change of scenery and a fresh start with a different organization. I still think he can be a solid MLB pitcher but if it was going to happen with the Brewers then it would have happened already. Texas was scouting him late in spring training and with a 34-35 record and some mediocre pitchers on their roster...maybe they'd have a spot for Wily. Rangers get: RHP-Wily Peralta (Brewers pick up all remaining salary minus the minimum salary portion) Brewers get: 3B-Ti'Quan Forbes 2014 second round pick chosen because of his tools and projection but hasn't hit yet, .239/.284/.373/.657 so far this year (career minor league .309 OBP/.642 OPS in 1073 AB). 20 years old currently in low A ball. Hasn't appeared on Texas top 30 prospects list since 2015. Has hit 8 home runs this year which is about the only bright spot left. Longest of long shots. If the Rangers still view him as a "fringe prospect" then he'd probably be classified too high to give up for Peralta, but it's just as likely the Rangers may see him as just another run-of-the-mill minor leaguer and then it would be a fair deal, assuming they still have some level of interest in Peralta. Or maybe for the Jeffress fans...the deal could be "top 10 organizational prospect" plus Peralta for Jeffress. Jeffress has pitched better recently so the prospect the Brewers would be surrendering would probably have to be pretty good. Marcos Diplan or Ryan Cordell back to Texas? Probably the type of prospect it would take to get Jeffress back in Milwaukee.

Lots of teams are all giddy after seeing the returns for Chapman and Miller last year but I'm not seeing any reliever in this market that approaches those two. Robertson is probably the best out there and he's not even in the ballpark. Chapman's 3 year splits from 2013-2015 = 2.05 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 1.82 FIP Chapman's 2016 stats prior to being traded = 2.01 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 1.93 FIP Miller's 3 year splits from 2013-2015 = 2.15 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.08 FIP Miller's 2016 stats prior to being traded = 1.39 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 1.78 FIP Robertson's 3 year splits from 2014-2016 = 3.32 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.92 FIP Robertson's 2017 current stats = 3.20 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 2.81 FIP Padres can ask for a Will Smith type return for Hand but IMO the only reason Smith's price-tag turned out to be so high is because the Giant's snagged themselves in the after-effects of the Chapman/Miller bidding. If anything, considering the size of Robertson's contract, I think the White Sox could expect to see a Will Smith type return for him and the rest of the reliever market works down from there. Sorry, but a reliever with a historical FIP just under 3 that earns 12-13 million dollars per season just isn't a guy that I would be tripping all over to get. That being said, even if Hand goes for a reasonable price he'd probably command more than I'd want to give up. Robertson, Hand and Neshek probably are the three relievers likely to be dealt that would have a price-tag that would be too high for me. Probably get up into the Phillips/Dubon territory when trading for one of those pitchers, and I wouldn't move Phillips or Dubon for a reliever (would as part of a bigger package if it returned a starting pitcher). Take the targets Robertson, Hand and Neshek off the board and remove Brinson, Ray, Diaz, Ortiz, Hader, Woodruff, Phillips, Dubon, Erceg, Bickford, Burnes from the trade pieces list and I'm all for making a deal that would help the bullpen.

http://www.billjamesonline.com/article1004/ Here's an article from 2009 with some of the numbers from the 2008 season on how hitters become more effective the more times they see a pitcher and the pitchers become less effective the longer they pitch into games. I doubt the numbers would be that much different today. One thing I can pull up real quick is that starters have an OPS against them of .768 and relievers have an OPS against them of .717 so far this season. If (1) rosters are expanded to 26 players and (2) the NL goes to a DH...to be honest at that point I think it would be foolish for small-market teams to totally ignore this concept. Think of some of the financials involved. 10 years from now top flight starting pitchers probably cost 40 million on the market and even a #3 probably goes for 16-20 million. If the majority of teams use a 6 man rotation that's 162/6 = 27 starts per year and the back end guy(s) sometimes get skipped but the true ace pitchers likely top out at 30 starts. If they average 7 innings per start that puts them at 210 innings per season. Even if the small market team has to pay each piece of a 3rd day group 8 million each, that's 24 million BUT those guys eat up the bulk of the innings every third day (say a group of 3 averages 7 1/3 innings per game....162/3 = the group pitches a total of 54 times per year times 7.33 innings = 396 innings for that 24 million dollar investment). So basically 1 group of 3 would consume nearly twice as many innings as a top flight starter in a 6-man rotation and would cost less money. Very likely less effective but a two-fold drop-off? With 26 man rosters there would always be 4 relievers available and if the team got into a bind they could go down to 12 position players and that would allow a team to carry 5 relievers. I'm not saying that I strongly feel the Brewers should switch to this type of model. But if the roster rules are changed I think there is enough statistical data that shows this might be a pretty good idea for certain teams to try. In a small market and can't even afford mid-rotation free agent starting pitching? Have a bunch of starters that pretty much hit the wall the third time through the order? Have a bunch of hard-throwing young players that you want to see consistent action but don't want to overwork them? Lots of scenarios where this makes sense with a 26-man roster and especially if the DH is there and the team doesn't have to worry about having to pinch-hit.

I think this would be a worthwhile experiment with a bad team. If the Brewers were 10 games back I wouldn't mind seeing something like this. It would probably get Hader, Woodruff...include maybe Lopez and/or Wang regular work every 4th day in the 50-70 pitch range. But being in first place presents a problem, and also with Anderson and Nelson really emerging I'd hate to have strict pitch counts on them in games when they are pitching well because of the 3 days rest factor. Looking into the crystal ball and it's not hard to imagine teams moving to this type of pitching model in the future. Good chance an active roster expansion to 26 players could facilitate the move. With the way starting pitching is protected there is a good chance many of the big market teams will add a sixth starting pitcher to the rotation. It allows them to protect the big-money arms with 4 or 5 less starts per season while also letting those big-money arms earn that money by pitching late into games like true ace pitchers do. But with small-market teams often having trouble filling out the back end of the rotation, a model of 3 day 3-3-3 or 4 day 4-4 could very be a better option rather than having a mediocre fifth starter and a sixth starter who has no business being in a major league rotation. Limited roster spots plays a role in preventing these types of models but with a 26th roster spot that would make a 13 man pitching staff standard and IMO make these types of models more realistic.

It will be interesting to see how the situation in the American League impacts buyers in this year's market. Basically the entire American League is in the playoff race. Second wild card position belongs to Tampa Bay with a 37-35 record. Worst winning percentage belongs to the A's, their record stands at 31-38. So the worst team in the American League is only 4.5 games back. A's and White Sox have had the look of sellers all along and probably will stay in that mode. But a team like the Tigers...not so sure if they start dumping players if they hang within 3 games of a playoff spot. About two weeks ago the Rangers were playing some pretty terrible baseball and looked like they were going nowhere, and a pretty modest 7-3 run has put them 1 game behind the Rays. If the AL stays like that through the next few weeks, it will probably be a real strong sellers market this year.

It would be interesting to see what the Rangers think of Jeffress right now. They gave him almost 10 straight days off at the beginning of the month and since then he's been used 5 times. 4 good results and 1 bad result. In the four good appearances he pitched 6 innings and gave up only 3 baserunners (2 hits, 1 walk) and 0 runs. In the bad appearance he gave up 4 runs (2 home runs) in only 1 inning of work. So while the monthly split doesn't look very good, Jeffress has been better recently.

Luis Ortiz is on my no-trade list and the only way I would trade Phillips would be in a package to obtain an upgrade in the starting rotation. No problem with the concept of trading for a quality reliever, but the price for top-tier relief pitcher would be too high for me. Would be open to the idea of trading players like Cordell or Freddy Peralta for a quality reliever that is controlled beyond this season.

2 million falls between the slot values for picks #33 and #34 so he would have signed for pretty near slot value had the Brewers taken him at #34. I have no complaints over the Lutz pick but would have rather had Enlow at #34, especially considering the Brewers had already taken a bat at #9. Some reports out today that Shane Baz has already signed with the Pirates and got a deal that he couldn't pass up. Slot value for the 12th pick is $4,032,000. Will be interesting to see if his bonus will be much more than that.

Safe to assume that Tristan Beck told teams not to draft him because he's returning to Stanford?

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2017/06/13/brewdraft-13/388395001/ Sounds like the Brewer's saw video of Hiura playing shortstop in high school and that was enough to convince them that he's a second baseman. I'm really interested in what happened at UC-Irvine...did Hiura move to the outfield because a different player had shortstop locked down or what was it that resulted in the move? Add in the elbow issues and it raises more questions about the defensive aspect. I also am wary about the Brewers likely putting off surgery for him. Even the quote states that there is "uncertainty" with how the rehab will progress. With the early end to the college season it seems like now would be the time to get the elbow right and only lose a minimal amount of at-bats at Wisconsin/Helena. He hurt the elbow in April 2016. He re-injured it in November. 7 months did not fix the problem. The injection allowed him to hit but he could not play the field. Partial tear of the UCL. Sure looks like a long-term issue if not corrected by surgery.

Looks like last year the guys picked in the 8-10 range ended up being a back end top 100 player. If using the MLB.com list, I'd guess Hiura probably fits in at #6 behind Brinson, Ray, Hader, Ortiz and Diaz.

I had fun too, but it still was a collective miserable fail by the community. Looking forward to doing it again next season where accuracy will be that much more difficult because we may need to start 10-14 days earlier.

I really like Hiura's bat but the defensive aspect really worries me. If I'm gambling with a player's glove this early in the draft it would have to be someone who projects to be a real masher...someone with 35-40 home run power like Prince Fielder or (on the flip side) Matt LaPorta. Hiura will likely hit, could prove to be a doubles machine, but could be one of those guys that has an offensive WAR of 4.0 that get's played down to a 2.0 if the defense isn't there. If he can't stick at second base I think it will be really hard to justify a #9 pick, hopefully either the defense won't be a problem and/or he'll end up having more pop in his bat than I am anticipating. Really like the Lutz pick. Hit tool is probably the weakest aspect of his game but I still think he'll sit in the .250 - .260 range in the big leagues assuming he doesn't crap out before he gets there. Should make up for that with plus power. I think he could be a Wil Myers type hitter (career slash = .257/.328/.434/.762). Defense doesn't seem to be an issue, probably better than league average in one of the corner outfield spots. I think I would have went with Drew Waters over Lutz but the difference isn't big enough where I'd complain about this pick. Really thought Lutz would go in the 20's and pretty happy to land him at #34. Didn't like the Lemons pick at all. Had the recent increase in velocity but it sounds like his mechanics are a mess and all of his secondary stuff is no better than fringe level at this point. Comes off to me like a Johnny Hellweg type player, a guy that a team messes with as a starter because of all the potential but probably ends up as a setup man if he hits his ceiling. Would have rather gone with someone like Griffin Canning, who may not have the upside but has a good chance to fit in a rotation as a #3 starter based on a real strong track record at UCLA.

My top four favorites for #34 and #46 are all still out there. Blayne Enlow, Drew Waters, Tristen Lutz and Brent Rooker. Add in Griffin Canning and Sam Carlson as droppers and that #34 pick is starting to look pretty good.

Not only zero right with the 9 picks, but nobody projected Hiura to the Brewers and that was before the 3-way runoff to end it. 9 different players got votes but not one for Hiura. Miserable fail.

nope. dodgers got him. Back to back Wisconsin kids for the Dodgers. Pretty interesting the way things fall.

And the Weeks comparison is what scares me. I don't have any concerns about Hiura's bat. However, there were plenty of seasons that Weeks carried a well above-average bat for a second baseman and then "un-did" much of the good he did with some really poor defensive skills. Based on what I'm seeing Hiura hasn't really played much second base at all. Sounds like he was an outfielder that UC-Irvine was looking to transition to second base this year and he came up with a bad elbow and so the transition never happened. So the Brewer's decided to take a player who has a bad elbow and has significant questions about a defensive position. I love the bat. But the rest of it looks like more of a risk than I would be willing to take. I can't figure out why all the experts have been listing him as a second baseman when, from the information I have gathered, it doesn't seem like he's really played much second base? Was he that bad as an outfielder where they all figured, like the college coaches, that he might be better off in the infield? Probably somewhere in my subconscious mind I would like the pick more if he'd been announced as an outfielder. Probably could live with a dead-arm like Khris Davis in left field rather than watching another Rickie Weeks bumble around at second base for a decade. I will say this, if Hiura starts showing any Weeks-like tendencies at second base I hope they don't mess around and move him to the OF right away. And I don't care how crowded the outfield may be. There are still some crazies out there that think Weeks could have been a more valuable player if the Brewers has attempted to make him an outfielder early in his career...and I am one of those crazies. Maybe it wouldn't have worked and if that's the case he could have gone back to second base, but it would have been nice to see an attempt in the outfield rather than watching him play a very sub-par second base for all those seasons. Anyway, I wish Hiura the best and hopefully he'll prove that my concerns about the defense were nothing to be worried about in the first place.

I don't know about that statement that Hiura has played all over. We know he DH'ed last year. Cal-Irvine's website list Hiura as having 6 defensive assists in the 2015/2016 season and 6 defensive assists in the 2014/2015 season. Has this guy really played second base at all? Seems like he was pretty much just an OF/DH in college.

Where did Hiura play prior to this season? Was it second base?

When going though the community mock I looked up some info on the Twins and the writers up there gave me the impression that McKay has been the favorite all along. We'll see what happens tonight. After that I had Greene to the Reds but never really considered the possibility that the Padres would take Gore over Wright. At the time it seemed like Greene-Wright-McKay had such a big lead over the field that they were locked in to be the first three picks. But the more I think about it, Gore probably does have a higher ceiling than Wright so if it goes McKay, Greene...then it wouldn't be that surprising to see Wright fall down the board a bit. That being said, I don't think it would be the best move for the Braves to pass on talent like Wright and go for an under-slot deal at #5. The Mayo comments on the Braves pick is killing me. Tristen Lutz? Really? He can't be talking about the Braves giving Lutz an above-slot deal at #41 because he isn't going to make it that far. I was hoping to have a chance at Lutz at #34 and now he gets a minor mention at #5? I see one has him at #26 and one has him at #29. But neither have Blayne Enlow or Drew Waters in the top 30 so hopefully one of those two make it to #34. Very surprised that Griffin Canning is not mentioned in either, although he has to have been slipping (but slightly) over the past couple of weeks. I'd love to have a chance at him at #34. Not the biggest guy, but outside of that a really solid prospect.

Draft works out pretty nicely by my own personal perspective. I like more of the pitchers at #9 but at #34 and #46 I liked the bats more. Did some work on rounds 3 - 5 and like the pitchers more in that area. So it balanced out fairly well for me. But now it's almost a guarantee that the Brewers will draft hitter (Austin Beck?), pitcher (Tristan Beck?), pitcher (Wil Crowe?) and then 3 more hitters. I'm hoping for something like: #9 - RHP-Shane Baz - Concordia Lutheran HS - Tomball, TX #34 - OF-Tristen Lutz - Martin HS - Arlington, TX #46 - OF-Brent Rooker - Mississippi State #84 - RHP-Landon Leach - Pickering HS - Ajax, Ont. #114 - RHP-Colton Hock - Stanford #144 - RHP-Cory Abbott - Loyola Marymount

Thanks reillymcshane. Didn't seem right to end this with a tie. 1.9 David Peterson

There are no ties in baseball. How about a quick re-vote between now and the start of the draft? One rule, voters cannot vote for the same player they voted for the first time around.

First guy that should be gone is Oliver Drake. He's 30 years old and had virtually no track record before getting to Milwaukee (less than 40 MLB innings at the time). He has a 5.16 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. At least Torres has a track record of success and proven that he can be an effective MLB reliever. Same with Feliz. I'm not saying that upgrades cannot be found for those players too but they would be down on my list when starting to make bullpen moves. Torres needs a solid 5-7 days off right now and then we'll see if he can get himself worked out. As much as I hate to say it, after Drake the next guy to go would likely be Peralta. I'd probably DFA him, hope to find a trade partner, and if not just release him. As much as I'd like to keep him around to try to develop him as a reliever, he's likely to make nearly 5 million next year which makes him a top non-tender candidate. I'd be a bit more optimistic with him if he had shown anything as a legitimate bullpen option up until now, but so far we've gotten an 8.44 ERA, 1.78 WHIP performance. It's questionable if there is enough time between now and the end of the season (and I realize there is still 3 1/2 months left) for him to prove he's worth a near 5 million price tag next year. I'm all for letting him go if it gets into early July and he's still struggling. I'd probably have Feliz at #3 on the list of bullpen options that should be replaced.