JosephC

Coulter is another player that got off to a terrible start and has hit pretty well since. Has slashed .265/.333/.500/.833 in May/June and has already homered 3 times this month. Likely does not live up to his first round billing, but IMO has rebuilt his value to where he can be viewed as a backup MLB corner outfielder or could be used as a decent second or third piece in a trade (depending on how big of a fish the GM is looking to land).

I would have rather seen Wang but as JohnBriggs12 pointed out Wang has been used a lot lately. Hader's line the last two times out looks good but there was a stretch of seven appearances before that where he got shelled. Would hate to see Hader get here and have a rough start. I also think it's important that the Brewers get a major league look at ALL their legitimate MLB prospects and Wang is one of those. Hate to think that players like Cordell and Wang could get lost in the shuffle as higher-ranked prospects get the nod over legitimate, older prospects who are deserving and could prove to be solid MLB contributors. Hopefully Hader will come out and be successful from day one and put all my concerns to rest.

So is it official that Tod Johnson is actually running this draft for the Brewers? If so, how relevant is past draft history when trying to figure out what the Brewers are going to do in the present? The GM has been here for less than 21 months, Montgomery's return hasn't even gotten to the 3 year mark yet and from what I gathered an analytics guy brand new to this organization is probably the guy who is running this draft. Kind of amazed that the media is still all over the toolsy outfielder thing. They drafted Clark and Ray...but Ray was a dropper who was likely stood out as the best player on the board. They acquired Brinson, but Stearns preferred deal for Lucroy was actually centered around a catcher. Phillips was acquired by the previous front office. Seems like a lot is being made out of the Clark/Ray draft picks. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers did take an outfielder. Just sort of sick of everyone in the media parroting one another, making an outfielder pick seem so clear cut when it's not high on the organizational need list OR there just isn't a long track record present with the Brewer's front office that would give a strong indication what the Brewers would do.

1.9 David Peterson

Using BA's top 500 list to determine which players would be available at Milwaukee's selections, I'd go with the following players: 9 - RHP - Shane Baz I'd been big on Alex Faedo and I know he's coming off what will likely prove to be minor injury woes, but his peripherals just didn't quite stack up this season to be a top 10 pick. My favorite college pitcher at this point is David Peterson and I'd strongly consider him at #9. I also really like Pavin Smith but after seeing that Adam Haseley posted a better OBP and hit an additional home run this season...not really a knock on Smith as Haseley is top 10 material himself...just that combined with the fact that Smith's defensive upside is probably league average at first base...was just enough to tip me away from him at #9. As far as all the prep outfielders, I've seen enough reports on Beck and Adell which lead me to classify each of them as super high-ceiling prospects that also have very low floors. With the outfield depth in the Brewer's system, if I'm gambling on upside I'm going to do it on the mound. Every high school pitcher is a risk, but I like Baz' size, velocity and the fact that he's already shown a feel for throwing several different off-speed pitches. D.L. Hall's lack of size isn't a huge concern, but enough for me to lean towards Baz. If signability is an issue, then choice 1-B is David Peterson. #34 - OF - Tristen Lutz I was really hoping for RHP-Blayne Enlow or OF-Drew Waters to make it to this spot, but the closer it gets the more unlikely that looks. If he hits his upside, good chance Lutz will be a Wil Myers type hitter (career .257/.328/.436/.764 - hit 28 HR last year), but I'd expect Lutz to stick in a corner outfield spot and play at least league average defense. #46 - 1B - Brent Rooker Rooker would be the backup plan at #34, so I would love to get him here. .498 OBP, 1.325 OPS and 56 extra base hits (23 home runs) in 65 games as an SEC player? Sign me up. In addition to the already mentioned players, two other strong candidates I really like in the #34/#46 area are SS-Jeter Downs and RHP-Steven Jennings.

1.8 Shane Baz

Now that Dyson is out, can we start the Jeremy Jeffress watch? 5.73 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, 13/12 BB/K ratio. I don't care how high-profile a trade a player has been involved in and how GM's hate to admit mistakes and want to save face...it's very tough to stick on a 25-man roster with a stat line like that.

1.7 Adam Haseley

I probably wouldn't have projected a trade like this two days ago. But Phillips getting promoted ahead of Cordell, despite the fact that Cordell is over 2 years older than Phillips, makes me really question how valuable Stearns sees Cordell as a future major league piece (and I am aware of the lefty bat versus righty bat aspect). Pretty much everyone would have Cordell ranked as the Brewer's fifth best outfield prospect and with Santana and Brinson already producing as major leaguers, it doesn't bode that well for a 25 year old stuck in AAA. Williams is already 25 years old and missed two seasons with a major elbow injury. Over two full years since the injury and I believe the max number of pitches in any outing this season is 57. And Williams was never a top-of-the-line prospect even prior to the injury. In Baseball America's 2015 Handbook Williams was ranked #7 (in an organization that was ranked #21) and the key sentence in the write-up states that due to Williams' lack of size many scouts see him as a reliever but the Brewers think he can be a starter because of his command. A move like this is hardly like giving away the farm. On most expert's top 30 list Cordell would rank in the 13-15 area and maybe Williams cracks the bottom. If things go south for Milwaukee, barring injury Wilson would be a pretty easy flip next off-season and likely would bring back the equivalent of Cordell. He's a 95 MPH lefty with a solid MLB track record. Brewer fans see Stearns making an effort to help what is emerging as the weakest part of the team and Counsell gets a proven MLB lefty to work with.

Brewers get: LHP-Justin Wilson Tigers get: OF-Ryan Cordell RHP-Taylor Williams RHP-Tyler Cravy Wilson is in year number 5 so he would be controlled for through the 2018 season. Setup man with 281 major league innings. Career 3.23 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9, 9.4 K/9. So far this season has a 2.74 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9, 13.7 K/9. Has hit a new high in average fastball velocity this season (96.2) but has an very low .244 BABIP so it can be expected that the ERA and WHIP will drift back towards the career averages as the season progresses. Despite the .500 record, rumors are that Detroit will be in full sell mode. They've used Wilson as a closer at times the last few weeks, probably to try to increase his value (had 1 career save before this season). I'd project him as a 1.5 WAR pitcher going forward even though he has pitched well over that level so far this season. His surplus value is probably in the range of 12-15 million. If the Tigers blow up their roster they will probably be looking for advanced prospects that they can plug in fairly soon. I think Cordell probably holds a bit more than perceived value for a team like Detroit because he could fit on a 25-man roster tomorrow and has no problem playing all 3 outfield positions. Williams is still working his way back and the pitch counts have remained under 60 but he has looked really good lately. This would be the "lottery-ticket" part of the trade. Tyler Cravy is a throw-in that could fill the spot on the 25 that's been vacated by Wilson or they could stash him back at AAA for some bullpen depth/insurance. I'd classify Cordell as a "top 10 organizational prospect" and Williams and Cravy as "role player prospects" which puts surplus value's as follows: Cordell = 10 million and Williams and Cravy at 5 million each for a total rough estimate of 20 million. EDIT : Downgrade Cravy to "fringe prospect" and lower his estimated surplus value from 5 million to 2 million. Brewer's total contribution to the trade is approximately 17 million.

1.6 Pavin Smith

I'm curious to see how many times Auggie calls him "Burt Phillips." I honestly don't expect he'll be here for long. When Shaw comes back, that means Perez has no home. He could take over at 2nd I suppose, now Sogard is out. Then you have Aguilar frozen out, since Thames wouldn't be playing any LF. And that's all before Braun even comes back. So I really only see him up for a few days unless he does take Broxton's spot, and I don't think that's going to happen. Broxton has done enough to keep a spot. He strikes out a lot, but so does Phillips. He could take Franklin's spot potentially...doesn't solve the problem when Braun returns though. If Phillips hits the cover off the ball and the Brewers want to see more of him, they could have the equipment guy point an ordinary box fan at Braun's locker and when his forearm or calf would be struck by the ensuing gale-force winds he would almost assuredly need another two weeks on the disabled list.

I get this impression of Cola from the Baseball America writeup in the Handbook (essential purchase for baseball fans). hit for average = average power = below average field = average arm = average speed = ? Sounds like his athleticism is probably his best asset. I don't always equate athleticism to speed because I've seen plenty quick, fluid and agile guys play shortstop and then turn out to be well below average runners when on the bases. Agree with everyone above, Cola is much better than I was expecting. Looks like a long-shot but what else can be expected for the fourth piece in a trade for a reliever? Overall not great in any area but the flip side of that is he doesn't have one "skill set" that is so poor that it would deep-six his chances to be a major-leaguer.

I agree with McKenzie being a riser and Longenhagen's 30's estimate seems right to me. I like McKenzie a lot and am not under-estimating his talent or his value. On the flip side, I think many Brewer fans are under-estimating Ray's talent and his value. Slow start to this year, but still looks like a solid top 50 prospect and a pretty good chance to be a solid 4 WAR player year in and year out in the big leagues. If you want to play the surplus value game, I'll increase the 2016 surplus value estimates by 10% for this season and then these categories break down as follows: -Pitchers 26-50 = 32.78 million -Hitters 26-50 = 42.02 million -Hitters 51-75 = 24.64 million I'd have them both in the 26-50 range, which would put Ray's surplus value at 9.24 million over McKenzie. But if Ray is bumped down to the 51-75 group, then McKenzie's surplus value is 8.14 million over Ray. Those numbers tell me a straight-up flip of the two would be a pretty reasonable deal. I'd project Santana to float around 2 WAR mark over the next 4 2/3 seasons...but let's just figure him to be a 1 WAR player over that timeframe. If so, his value per season would be 5.6 (rest of 2017), 8.8, 9.2, 9.6 and 10 million. At minimal salary in 2017 and 2018, then use the 40/60/80 estimate over the last three years puts his salary at 0.4, 0.6, 3.7, 5.8, 8 million. Total is 43.2 million in value versus 18.5 million in salary earned for an surplus value of 24.7 million. Adding that to a 24.64 million in surplus value for Ray puts the Brewers contributing 49.34 million in surplus value versus only 32.78 from the Indian's end. That's why I think the trade is too lop-sided towards the Indian's end if both Ray and Santana are included. As always, it all comes down to how one guesses (and that's all it is, a guess) on how these players move forward. Ray could crap out, Santana could revert back to being a 0.5 WAR player and McKenzie could emerge as a legitimate MLB ace. On the flip side, McKenzie could crap out, Ray could easily become a Starling Marte type performer and Santana could just continue right along the .850 OPS/2 WAR path he put himself on this season.

1.5 Austin Beck

I think the Twin's deal is pretty close to being fair value but the Indian's deal is too lop-sided in the Indian's favor. IMO Santana likely maxes out at about a 2 WAR player. The .850 OPS is great but he's terrible in the field and that will always drag his value down some. Currently Baseball Reference has him at 0.8 WAR and Fangraphs has him at 0.5 WAR so average that and multiply by 3 to project it over a full season and the result is 2 WAR. He is still only 24 so there is probably a better chance that he goes up rather than down, but best guess is that he floats around the 2 WAR mark over the next four seasons. I don't see either of the pitchers named in the Twin's trade at top of the rotation type pitchers. Gonsalves has a high floor and that's where his value lies, he's a real good bet to stick in an MLB rotation but I'm guessing his max is a #3 but more than likely a #4 or #5. Romero is 22 years old and it sounds like all his secondary pitches are still pretty fringy. He has more upside than Gonsalves but has a much lower floor and could project as anything from a #2/#3 starter to a 7th inning reliever (assuming he sticks on an MLB roster). I love McKenzie and would consider a straight-up trade for Ray. But I would only do so because of the Brewer's glut of outfield talent the franchise's historical starting pitching problems (which admittedly should play a ZERO factor in decisions made in the here and now). No way would I also include a cheap, performing player like Santana who is controlled for another 4 1/2 years. Fans have gotten too down on Ray's slow start this season. He slashed .290/.368/.430/.798 in May and is off to a huge start in June. The .798 OPS was held down by a lack of home runs, but now he's hit 3 home runs in the last 13 games so the pop is coming around. There is still an excellent chance Ray is an .800+ OPS player when he hits the majors and that plays up because he will likely be a plus outfielder and a plus-plus runner on the bases. As ZBTMP pointed out, pretty much all the evaluators have Ray ranked ahead of McKenzie. Pretty easy to see Ray becoming a Adam Eaton or Starling Marte type of performer in the majors, and those guys are pretty solid 4 WAR type of performers.

Dyson has been way worse than Peralta. I wouldn't do that. I still think Peralta has something there. Remember that afternoon game against the cubs the 1st game after he was moved to the pen. I still would be OK if Drake or Hughes was DFA'd for Suter though. Normally I would agree, keep Peralta. But Wily is such a strong candidate to be non-tendered this off-season I don't think it would be unreasonable to make a move like this. The Rangers were scouting Peralta at the end of spring training so there probably would be some level of interest from their end. Dyson has the 2nd worst FIP and 9th worst xFIP of MLB pitchers that have thrown at least 10 innings this season. He has been truly awful. But his velocity hasn't significantly dropped and his BABIP (.379) and HR/FB% (37.5%) are ridiculously high, so there are indicators that he'll be much better over the rest of this season.

Since there are so many mock drafts saying the Brewers will take a toolsy prep outfielder, it's pretty much a slam-dunk that they are going to take a college pitcher.

1.4 - MacKenzie Gore I went with Gore for organizational depth reasons. The Rays lack quality left-handers in their system.

1. Teddy Higuera I think Higuera was the most talented pitcher to ever wear the Brewer uniform, and I haven't forgotten some of the elite rentals the Brewers have acquired over the years. Combine that with his #1 WAR ranking makes him an easy choice for #1. 2. Mike Caldwell Vuckovich gets classified as the ace of the 1982 staff, but I don't think there is any question that Caldwell was the anchor. Ranked #2 in wins, #5 in winning percentage, #8 in ERA, #10 in WHIP and #5 in WAR. Sheets trumps him in many of these categories, but Caldwell's role on the 1982 team gets him this spot. 3. Ben Sheets It's too bad Sheets started to break-down so early in his career and played on some truly bad baseball teams. Was a 4-time All-Star and would probably rank much higher in many categories had he not missed the equivalent of a full season over his last four years in Milwaukee. 4. Jim Slaton Franchise leader in wins and another key cog on the 1982 team, although he was mainly a reliever that year. 5. Moose Haas Have to admit I'm quite fond of that 1982 team and the bias shows here. That said, Haas is #4 in franchise wins and #7 in WAR. 6. Yovani Gallardo #1 in strikeouts and top 5 in ERA and wins. Just doesn't have the magic of being on that 1982 team which is no fault of his own. 7. Pete Vuckovich Another great one that had physical problems far too early. Cy Young winner and the franchise leader in winning percentage. Would have loved to rank him higher but only pitched in 85 regular season games for Milwaukee. 8. Chris Bosio Top 10 in wins, ERA and strikeouts. 9. C.C. Sabathia Only pitched in 17 regular season games but got the city of Milwaukee to believe again. And he wasn't half bad in those 17 games either. 10. Jim Colborn 20 game winner in 1973. The Brewers have only had 3 20-game winners and the other two are #1 and #2 on this list. 11. Zack Greinke I have to admit that I thought Greinke was just a tad bit disappointing while he was in Milwaukee despite the excellent 2.79 FIP. I was really hoping he'd pitch at his 2009 level which was unrealistic on my part (although he did get back there and exceeded it in 2015). Still went 25-9 in 49 regular season games as a Brewer and that's pretty good. 12. Bill Wegman This is where the pickings got really slim. Wegman does rank #4 in franchise WAR and #7 in wins. I guess longevity counts for something.

I'm the opposite. Seems to me the biggest concern with Beck/Adell/Kendall is their hit tool. Adell might have what could prove to be a fatal flaw in pitch recognition, whereas Beck might have the same problem but to a lesser extent and Kendall will probably will need to make some adjustments with his swing mechanics. But of those three, Kendall is the only one that has hit SEC pitching and I see him as having the safest defensive projection by far of the three (although the field/arm grades in the MLB profiles don't back that). With what he did at Vanderbilt there doesn't seem to be much question that he could play plus-defense at any of the outfield positions at the MLB level, I don't think that can be said about Beck or Adell (they may have the tools, they don't have the track record). Kendall may have been one of the most over-rated prospects three months ago but now he's on the verge or being one of the most under-rated prospects. If he makes it out of the top 12 or 13 picks then he seems like a really good bargain pick. Personally though, I think I would be off all these outfielders at number 9. Pavin Smith is the only bat that I like at #9 (and has a chance to make it there)...if not him then I like a number of different pitchers.

1.3 Hunter Greene

Throw #6 off the list for the PED use. Then my 8 through 10 would be Teddy Higuera, Ben Sheets and Don Money.

Unfortunately, I do think it's about time the Brewers consider parting with Peralta. With the way the arbitration process works, it's pretty likely that even with the bad statistical season he'll still likely get a fair raise for 2018 that could land him in 5+ million dollar territory (20% raise would put him at 5.13 million). He'll likely be one of MLB's top non-tender candidates this off-season unless he rebounds in a big way. I still would like to think his arm would be attractive enough where Stearns would be able to find another team that has a struggling hard-throwing reliever and maybe the two sides could work out a swap.

Not only the injuries but the huge defensive drop-off that people have feared may have arrived. Braun posted a pretty good +6 DRS in 2016, but in 2017 he is at -7 which is a shockingly bad number for only having played 222 innings. His UZR/150 in 2016 was a respectable -3.3, but had dropped to -22.8 so far in 2017. J.D. Martinez had similar defensive numbers last year, and it limited him to being a 1.8 WAR player despite a huge offensive season in which he slashed .307/.373/.535/.908 (120 games played).