JosephC

Washington must believe that Eaton is entering his age 28 season and therefore his offense will take another jump and he'll be a legitimate .850+ OPS guy over the next four or five seasons. IMO the defense has really overinflated his WAR. His DRS in 2016 was a sick +22 but he hadn't played much RF prior to that. In 2015 in CF his DRS was a -14 and in 2014 his DRS was a +11 (UZR/150 on the negative side both seasons). If he's in CF or if those defensive metrics in right field return to "good but not insanely good" levels then Eaton is probably somewhere between a 3 and 4 WAR player assuming no further offensive improvement. Still excellent value when considering his contract, but not so good that a team surrenders a top 10 overall prospect for him (much less a top 5 and another in the top 40).

No particular names in mind but I agree with this concept. The bullpen has become the most glaring hole on the roster IMO, there will be some reasonably priced quality relievers on the market. I would sign one or two with the intention of them pitching well and staying with the club, but if the Brewers signed someone like Storen and he had a big bounce-back year he'd be a solid trade chip in July. I would think the Brewers will be well short of Attanasio's payroll ceiling, and couple veteran relievers on 3 of 4 million dollar salaries seem like the most logical investments to make.

Almost forgot. If the Red Sox decide their rotation no longer has room for Eduardo Rodriguez, he's a player I'd love to see the Brewers get.

I definitely don't see Boston giving up Benintendi, Devers or Groome in a Braun deal. Prior to this trade I figured the only way Boston would move any of their top 5 (previously mentioned three plus Moncada and Kopech) would be for elite MLB starting pitching, and Sale definitely qualifies as that. I actually like this deal a little better from the Red Sox end mainly because Kopech scares me a little. Players like Chris Sale rarely make it to the market when factoring in talent and contract situation. One could easily make the argument that Sale has been one of MLB's 10 best starters in each of the last four seasons. He turns 28 right at the beginning of next year and could easily continue his high level of performance through the next six seasons. He is under team control for three more seasons at an absolute bargain 39.5 million dollars. Even if Moncada's money is rolled into this equation it's a 70.7 million dollar commitment from the Red Sox for 3 years of Sale, and 23.57 million per season is still a below market rate for a pitcher like him. Moncada...no issues with him. There is a reason he's considered to be the #1 prospect in all of baseball. Should be a great player. Kopech is the definition of a high ceiling, low floor player. As much natural talent as any pitcher in the minors, but there still are a lot of questions regarding his control and secondary pitches. It seems like he still has some significant improving to do if he's going to stick in a MLB rotation. Basabe could be one to watch, five tool guy who has been knocked for his strikeout rate and his OBP was down this year, but in past seasons his OBP was pretty solid (.368 from 2013-2015). Seems like a legitimate top 10 organizational prospect. Diaz is the big armed reliever throw-in, 1.49 WHIP as a 22 year old in A ball raises some questions. How good Kopech becomes probably determines who got the better of this trade. But it makes sense for both sides and certainly doesn't seem lop-sided in any way.

Shaw is a FA in 2022, so essentially a prospect with almost a full year of MLB experience, but yeah, wonder if it wasn't Shaw if Kopesch and Pennington or Dubon could have gotten the deal done. I don't think so. The Red Sox have stated that they are not trading Kopech so the Brewers wouldn't be landing him in exchange for a relief pitcher. I really don't think any of the top 5 prospects on Boston's list will be available for trade unless it brings back elite level MLB starting pitching.

There is nothing to dislike about what Dubon did last year at AA. 32 extra base hits in 62 games played and posted a .371 OBP. I think this is a pretty good deal for both sides. Thornburg doesn't have an extensive track record but has been a plus-reliever outside of some control issues in 2014. At 28 years old he is probably one year into the five best years of his career. The Brewers net three players for a relief pitcher. One will likely step into a starting role at third base, one appears to have a good chance of being a future middle infield starter and the third is a big-arm lottery ticket. Rebuilding teams will take three-for-a-reliever deals all day long.

Shaw is kind of interesting. His OBP was too low last year (.306) but he hit 16 home runs and gives a team some defensive versatility. In 2015 he posted an .822 OPS in 226 MLB at-bats. In a proposed Braun trade I had Shaw coming back to the Brewers because I thought Stearns might see him as a solid #6 hitter for Milwaukee...and if not he still would give the team options at 1B, 3B and LF (this was before the Thames signing).

No disrespect for what Rich Hill has done, but I'll go on record saying this was a bad move by Los Angeles. Rich Hill will be 37 years old by the time next season begins. He has accumulated over 7 years of service time over 11 big league seasons and has thrown 610 innings. He has never topped 200 innings and has only thrown 111+ innings one time back in 2007. His career numbers are a pretty pedestrian 4.10 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. His numbers over the last three years are excellent (2.05 ERA) but in those three seasons he's thrown a total of 144 2/3 innings. The Dodgers already have Kershaw (true ace), Maeda (pitched great last year), Urias (#1 pitching prospect in all of baseball at the All-Star break last year and MLB ready) and numerous candidates which should solidify the back of the rotation in Alex Wood, Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu and then throw in some rookie candidates like Jose De Leon and Brock Stewart. Considering there were a bunch of injuries that hit this rotation last year I could have understood it if the Dodgers went out and overpaid for a #3/#4 starter that was proven inning-eater/workhorse type. But Rich Hill? Granted, there is much, much greater upside potential with Hill but stabilizing a rotation with a player that will be 37 and has thrown 111+ big league innings one time in his MLB career...that wouldn't have been the way I would have gone. I would agree that he could throw as few as 400 innings over these next three seasons and if he pitches like he did last year those 400 innings would be worth 48 million in Dodger dollars. But on the flip side it wouldn't shock me to see him throw 100-150 innings and if that happens then this was a bad deal for LA. I've been outspoken about the Brewers avoiding picking up veteran player with 3 or less years of team control only because I don't think the Brewers will be competitive the next two season (Puig in particular). But hey, if the Dodgers now have a pitching excess and are willing to trade Alex Wood at a discount rate then count me in as definitely being interested!!!

Don't get the Rich Hill deal at all. Kershaw controlled through 2020 (can opt out after 2018). Maeda controlled through 2023. Urias controlled through 2022. Hill controlled through 2019 (assuming a 3 year deal). Wood controlled through 2019. Kazmir controlled through 2018. McCarthy controlled through 2018. Ryu controlled through 2018. I see them as being pretty much committed to the top four on that list. Three of the top four are lefties, makes me think that the remaining left handed pitchers - Wood, Kazmir, Ryu - can be had cheap. Already pretty much known that they would like to dump McCarthy. If they want to stick with Wood or Kazmir it could make De Leon available. It also seems to totally lock out some decent back end of the rotation candidates like Stewart or De Jong from ever having a chance to stick in the Dodger's rotation. I'm going to make the prediction that if Braun heads to LA the Brewers will not get any of the Dodger's top prospects in return. Rather the Brewers will end up with a "spare parts" return from LA. Something like Braun for Puig, Alex Wood, McCarthy (LA salary dump) and Brock Stewart. Kind of ugly at first glance after having looked at some of the possible prospect packages but Puig is a former All-Star and Wood doesn't just have #2 starter potential because he's pitched at that level in the past. Success of the trade would likely come down to Wood and McCarthy's health. If both those guys stay on the mound this would likely turn out to be an excellent trade for Milwaukee. If neither of them stay healthy, it would all depend on if Puig can bounce back to 2013/2014 performance levels. Not to totally forget about Stewart, he has a chance to stick in the back of a rotation for years to come. One more note, I'll also guess that the Dodgers trade De Leon to the Twins as part of a package for 2B-Brian Dozier.

Garza is a mediocre at best pitcher at this point of his career. It's hard to get a feeling of his true value because the metrics vary so greatly depending on which source you use. Baseball Reference evaluated him at -1.7 WAR in 2015 and -0.3 WAR in 2016. Fangraphs has him as a 0.6 WAR player in 2015 and a 1.4 WAR in 2016. Personally I'd put him in negative territory in 2015 (hard to believe a 5.63 ERA and 1.57 WHIP could be anything over replacement value) and slightly positive in 2016. A couple of projections has put him at a 1.7 WAR for 2017 which is puzzling considering he hasn't pitched to that level since 2014 and will now be entering his age 33 season. I'd personally project him as a 0.5 WAR player and his contract is not a bargain if he's a 0.5 WAR player. Garza's contract also had 2 million in deferred payments for each of the four guaranteed years of his contract. So the guaranteed money that still needs to be paid is 18.5 million. He gets paid 10.5 million in 2017 and then 2 million per season in 2018 through 2021. The five million dollar option would end up being part of a 2 year, 23.5 million dollar commitment and Garza would need to be a legitimate 3 WAR pitcher over those two seasons to make it a break even situation for the team trading for him. Brewer's best bet is to hold onto him and hope he pitches way over his head through the first 3 months of 2016. Even then the Brewers would likely have to kick in a significant amount of money in a deal to cover part of the deferred payments. Currently I'd put Garza firmly in negative value territory. I'd be shocked if Stearns was able to dump this contract during the off-season.

Pretending there wasn't a no trade clause in place. This would be too light in terms of quality and too light from the prospect end. If I'm the Angels I'd ask for 3 MLB pieces and 3 top minor league pieces. Not unreasonable at all for a talent like Trout. I'd say: Braun Thornburg Gennett Brinson Hader Ortiz or Bickford

I can't imagine Guerra would have much of any value to the Dodgers. They are incredibly deep with starter candidates and I don't even think they would view Guerra as a late inning candidate for their staff. They would probably view him as a long reliever, which means the Brewers would get more trading him to a different team that would plan on using him in the starting rotation.

The report last July was the Brewer and Dodgers had agreed on a Braun for Puig/McCarthy and two prospects deal. They had agreed on one of the prospects but couldn't agree on the second one. While many in the media speculated that deal was really close, that's not something we could know for sure because we didn't know the details about the disagreement over the second prospect. I always suspected there was a huge difference between the value of the player the Brewer's asked for and the value of the player that the Dodger's offered. Five player deals that include a bat like Braun's do not get hung up with two teams arguing about if another "top 10 organizational prospect" or a "role player prospect" should be included in the deal. I'll take a guess that the first prospect was one of their advanced pitchers like Brock Stewart or Chase De Jong. A player like that makes sense for both sides. Once their guys get healthy the Dodgers have plenty of starting pitching depth and a few high minors players that could contribute to the back of the rotation. The Brewers might not need a starting pitcher right now to fill out the rotation but two years down the road a pitcher like Stewart or De Jong could fit real nicely in the middle of the rotation provided they hit or at least approach their ceiling. So now it appears that Bellinger was the other prospect the Brewers wanted. It will be interesting to know what the Dodgers countered with? If I was sitting in Stearns shoes I'd be willing to compromise and take Alex Verdugo instead of Bellinger, but I wouldn't go any lower than that when taking on both the Puig contract and the McCarthy contract. If multiple prospects are added when Bellinger is subtracted out...a Buehler/Lux combo would be pretty attractive. I also think it's pretty interesting posturing by the Dodgers acting like the back end of Braun's contract would be a major concern. The no-trade situation does not play into this scenario. The financial obligation to Braun would be 4 years, 80 million dollars. McCarthy is truly dead money for them, including him in the deal brings it down to 4 years, 60 million dollars. It wouldn't be appropriate to call Puig's contract dead money but it would be another 14 million that would be off the Dodger's book when calculating luxury tax thresholds. But let's just say the Braun deal is essentially a 4 year, 60 million dollar contract when subtracting the McCarthy contract. If Braun repeats his 2016 performance in 2017 and then has a 30% decrease in value each season after that his WAR over the four years would be something like 3.2, 2.4, 1.6, 1 which when calculated into dollar value (7.9 million per win) would come out to 64.78 million which is over the 60 million dollar mark. Even if Braun experiences a total crash and is a 0 WAR player in that last season the WAR totals come out to 3.2, 1.6, 0.8, 0 which calculates out to 44.24 million which is almost the mark of Braun's deal minus the McCarthy money minus the Puig money. About the only way a Braun deal that includes McCarthy would be a disaster financially for the Dodgers is if Braun goes to LA and immediately suffers a completely disabling back injury. A very much doubt that Dodger posturing about Braun's contract will sway Stearns' assessment of Braun's value.

I think the average value per year is just about right, but I'm a bit surprised that Cepedes didn't get a fifth guaranteed season. Just a big more perspective on Braun's contract. If Braun goes to a team on his no-trade list and has that final year converted into a player option, it would make it a 91 million dollar commitment over 5 years. Braun's performance is almost guaranteed to have slipped dramatically by that point, but his earnings would still be 19 million less than Cepedes even after having an extra year added onto the deal. I also think Cepedes signing with the Mets is the best possible outcome for the Brewers. Of all the teams that could have come calling for Braun's services, the Mets would have been the last team that I would have wanted to deal with.

I'll certainly tip my cap to Stearns if Walker makes it as a big leaguer. Looking at the minor league stats, it just doesn't seem like he'll get on base enough to stick in the majors.

I'd put his value at 1 "top 10 organizational prospect" plus a better "role player" prospect. Wouldn't completely rule out a top 100 prospect, but I think if that happens it would only be a pitcher that might be a starter but probably projects as a reliever. As far as dealing him now or later, no doubt that his value would increase (and perhaps dramatically) if he repeats his 2016 performance during the first part of 2017. But since he was shelved for awhile late last season, I'd lean towards trading him now if a reasonable offer came along.

Disappointed by the Astros moves today. Signing Reddick sure seems to eliminate Houston as a possible destination for Braun. Weary of dealing with the Yankees at all. Remember when they wanted Cameron badly, worked out a Cameron for Cabrera swap and at the last minute insisted that the Brewers take on half of Cameron's salary. Then they tried to dump Kei Igawa on the Brewers.

I've thought the Astros were the best match for the last couple months. The have a middle-of-the-lineup and outfield opening. They could also use a veteran presence in the lineup. They have a pretty good left fielder prospect ready to go in Derek Fisher, but it sounds like they really view their corner outfielders of the future to be George Springer and A-ball prospect Kyle Tucker. The good thing about this is the Astros do not have the DH position tied up, so Braun could play left field for them in 2017 and 2018 and if Tucker is the real deal then Braun can slide into the DH role when Tucker is ready for the big leagues. And if Braun is wearing an Astro uniform, then Fisher is a likely candidate to throw into a trade with the Brewers. The Astros have very little money tied up, but on the flip side, they aren't New York, Los Angeles or Boston so they might be more flexible with Milwaukee and give up a little better prospect return with the more money the Brewers throw in. The Astros also have very good depth in their system. Definitely enough to interest Stearns even if the top name in the return is Fisher (which means the Astros hold on to all their young MLB talent and the top 4 prospects in their system according to MLB.com). I can't see Braun vetoing a deal unless he's trying to force a trade to the Dodgers or Angels. But looking at the lack of talent in the Angels organization, he probably already knows that he's not likely to end up there. If the Dodgers do something like sign Cepedes or trade for another outfielder...then Braun will know he's locked out of the LA market. Then why play for a rebuilding team like the Brewers when you can go to a top 10 television market in the south and play for a contender that has a lot of young talent? He'll leverage the no-trade clause to get the option year turned into a player option, but I don't think the no-trade will be a big hang-up. I'd see an Astros deal looking something like: Astros get: Ryan Braun (option year turns into a player option in return for Braun waiving the no-trade clause) 14 million dollars Brewers get: OF-Derek Fisher RHP-Albert Abreu RHP-Franklin Perez 1B-Yordan Alvarez Getting 14 million from the Brewers would bring the Astros commitment to 5 years, 77 million for Braun. At 15.4 million per season for a hitter like Braun...seems like 1 "top 100 prospect," 2 "organizational top 10 prospects" and a "fringe prospect" would make for a pretty even deal.

I think there would be an outside chance at De Leon. As reillymcshane stated, De Leon doesn't project as a staff ace so he's not untouchable. If you look at the Dodgers rotation, they have Kershaw, Julio Urias (20 years old), Alex Wood (25 years old), Kenta Maeda (28 years old), Scott Kazmir (under contract through 2018). As far as 4th and 5th starter candidates that can fill back of the rotation spots in case of injury they have Brock Stewart and Chase De Jong in the minors that will be able to fill in next year and Josh Sborz who will probably be ready the following year. So even without De Leon they would have an excellent group of starting pitchers and plenty of minor league options to protect them in case of injury. And all of this assumes they dump McCarthy in a deal but if he's not moved that's another option they have. But to get the Dodgers to include De Leon would require a number of concessions on the Brewers part: -Only taking back $20 million dollars in McCarthy's contract would probably not be enough. I think they would probably have to send the Dodgers another 15 million on top of that or pick up another contract like Kendrick. -The Brewers wouldn't get that much more out of the deal...likely just De Leon and another solid "role player" type prospect. -The Brewers probably would be required to throw in another piece like Gennett if the Dodgers don't bring back Utley (latest rumor says they probably bring him back).

Word out of Boston is that RHP-Michael Kopech is untouchable. It's also fair to assume that the Brewers would not get 2B-Yoan Moncada or OF-Andrew Benintendi out of a Braun trade. I also think 3B-Rafael Devers and LHP-Jason Groome would be very tough to pry away from Boston unless the Brewer's sweetened the pot...and if that's the case the Brewers might find better value for Braun + other pieces in separate deals. The one player on their roster that I would absolutely love to have is LHP-Eduardo Rodriguez, but would have to believe that he would be off the table too even after a pretty mediocre season (4.71 ERA, 3-7 record). While Boston has some big contracts, they don't have a bad contract that would make sense for Milwaukee to take on in a Braun swap. Whereas a team like the Dodgers might be looking to get under the luxury tax threshold, that doesn't seem to be as big of a concern for the Red Sox so they might not be that interested in taking money from the Brewers and increasing the prospect return to Milwaukee. Best guess with Boston is that, since I don't think they would be that interested in making the Brewer's eat a portion of Braun's deal, a possible deal with them wouldn't land that big of a return for Milwaukee. How Stearns views a player like Travis Shaw could make or break a deal with Boston. Shaw had the seventh most at-bats for the Red Sox last year, but they probably view him as a "second-division" type player. His highest at-bat total came from the 6th position in the lineup last year but a team like Boston would probably view him as a bottom third of the lineup bat. There are things to like about him (16 home runs, defensive versatility) and things to not like about him (88 OPS+, .306 OBP). If Stearns sees him as a solid 6th hitter that fills a 3B/1B hole on the roster then I can see a Braun deal possibly happening with Boston. If Stearns doesn't see any value in Shaw then it might be tough to get the pieces to match up. If a deal happens with Boston I'll throw out this prediction: Red Sox get: -Ryan Braun (option year of contract is turned into a player's option and Braun waives no-trade right) Brewers get: -3B/1B - Travis Shaw -1B - Josh Ockimey -RHP - Roniel Raudes That seems a bit light to me but again, if no money is involved I don't think the return would be that great. In the end I think it's hard for Boston and Milwaukee to get a deal done unless Devers, Groome or Rodriguez is included and getting additional pieces to match up just makes it that much harder.

Problem with scouring the free agent market is that there are only two bats that I know of that are comparable to Braun. Encarnacion and Cespedes. Looking at MLBTradeRumors top free agent predictions the next bats are Justin Turner (not nearly the track record of Braun), Dexter Fowler (completely different type of hitter), Mark Trumbo (huge home run number in 2016 but inconsistent and barely a lifetime .300 OBP player). And there is guaranteed to be more than 2 teams looking for middle of the order bats that have some assets (whether that be money or prospects) that they will be willing to give up. If the Brewers take back zero dollars in a Braun trade, and assuming the option year turns into a player option, the team obtaining Braun would be on the hook for 5 years, 91 million...18.2 million per season. Whereas the Encarnacion is projected at 92 million for 4 years (23 million per season) and Cespedes is projected at 5 years, 125 million (25 million per season). If the Brewers are willing to eat 18 million in that deal (amount of deferred money in the contract, could take back by either sending cash or taking back a bad contract), it would make him 20 million cheaper than Encarnacion with an extra year on his deal. So just comparing him strictly to free agents (granted, other available bats through trade could push him down the list), it's pretty easy to view Braun as one of the most attractive middle of the order hitters that will be available this off-season. Say that MLBTradeRumor's predictions come true and Cespedes goes to the Dodgers and Encarnacion goes to the Red Sox...if that happens Braun knows that his chances of being a Dodger are basically reduced to nothing and IMO further opens the door to him approving a trade to a different market. I still think the Astros and Braun are a great fit for one another. But if one team jumps up and grabs one of those two big FA bats away from the Dodgers/Red Sox...then it certainly wouldn't be a stretch to see Braun emerge as the favorite for either of those teams.

I don't see the Rays having any interest in Carter (assuming Miller is moving to 1B) or Gennett. I really don't see the pieces between the Rays and Brewers matching up. The Rays could use a starter and reliever, so maybe if Stearns decided it was time for Peralta to go he could send him to the Rays for Gillaspie. Hard to judge how the Rays would view Peralta considering how mediocre he's been the last two seasons. Personally I think Gillaspie may have more value at this time although Peralta still has the much bigger upside despite his age (Gillaspie probably is a one-tool player). The Brewers might have to throw in Torres and the Rays include another prospect to even it up. I hate the idea of selling low on Peralta, but Stearns might feel it's time to move on and Peralta's talent level might actually bring back a solid prospect like Gillaspie. I don't see Matt Garza bringing back that type of return this off-season.

Does paying Chris Carter on extra $2-$3mil help sell tickets or make fans happier? This isn't about dumping him or tendering him a contract. This is about tendering him a contract that could be $8mil or non tendering him and resigning him for less, say $5.5mil. I am guessing the only reason non tendering him isn't a no brainer is the fact on the open market some team could offer him a two year deal. Through arbitration talks they could probably get him for $7mil while a strong market could hypothetically force the Brewers to pay 2/$10mil(just a random number). Maybe they don't want him another two years as they are planning to move an OFer to 1B for 2018(another hypothetical situation). That's kind of how I see it. I'm for non-tendering him and offering him a 1 year, 5.5 million dollar deal and if he wants to test free agency then that's his right. If I'm Carter's agent, the 5.5 million dollar figure wouldn't bother me but I would reject the Brewer's offer and attempt to find a 2 year deal from a different team. I don't think the agent would expect to get 8 million per season from anybody but a 2 year deal in the 10-11 million dollar range is a reasonable possibility. If he gets a 2 year offer from a different team then his time as a Brewer is done, but if no team is willing to go 2 seasons then there is a decent chance he would be back in Milwaukee. I also don't think it would be unreasonable for the Brewers to do 2 years on him because as of right now he's not blocking any first baseman prospect. I don't have any argument with people who think Santana or another outfielder could end up being that first baseman, but Stearns might not see it that way and if he thinks all those guys should stay in the outfield then giving Carter a 2-year deal would be a reasonable move. Personally I would stick with one year because there are still a couple trade chips left, and maybe moving Braun will bring back an advanced first baseman prospect that may fit into the lineup in 2018. So I would rather just see them go one year with Carter...will be interesting to see how Stearns handles this one.

The Brewers were shopping Carter early in July and by the trade deadline there was basically no talk surrounding him. It doesn't appear there was any market for him despite having what could very well be the best year he'll ever have. I'd be interested in having Carter back but 8.1 million dollars is a lot of money for a player that probably doesn't fit into the "2019 and beyond plan" and will have questionable trade value. If I was Stearns I'd offer him a 1 year, 5.5 million dollar deal right now to see if he'd bypass arbitration (which I don't think he would). If he would reject the offer then I would non-tender him, let him hit the free agent market and then see how the 1 year, 5.5 million dollar offer would stack up against other offers. Losing Carter just wouldn't impact the long-term outlook for this franchise at all. If Carter is out of the picture the Brewers could take that money and sink it into a couple bounce-back candidates any maybe get lucky and hit the jackpot with one or at least maybe wind up with two trade chips at the deadline next year instead of just having Carter. It will be interesting to see how Stearns handles this situation. No question last year's investment on Carter was an excellent choice.

I'm assuming the Angels currently see Jefry Marte as their third baseman which could mean Kaleb Cowart doesn't figure into their future plans. He's been brutal with the bat as a major league player but has slashed .295/.360/.465/.825 in AAA. He's only 24 so there is more than enough time for him to get on track in the big leagues. If the Angels have soured on him he could be a really good buy low candidate.