JosephC

Matt Garza. Never reported but every MLB fan on the planet knows that he's cleared waivers.

For those that don't want Puig remember that he has the option of voiding the last two years of his deal and would then go to arbitration. There is always a chance he'd get to Milwaukee, hate the market and void his deal...then the Brewers could decline to offer him arbitration and he'd become a free agent. I would think it's very, very unlikely he would opt out of his contract after the trip to the minors but stranger things have happened. If a Braun/Puig swap is in the works, I'd be happy with it if Verdugo and a couple lower minor guys with good upside were also included. It would be pretty cool if the Brewers were able to get some quality prospects back for Braun AND not have to eat very much money in the swap...and this is a scenario where that could happen.

The one time Braun had to play through injury for an extended amount of time was the last half of 2014 with the thumb problem. His slash line post All-Star break that season was .226/.295/.374/.669 over 235 at-bats. It doesn't matter how great a player is, an injury that will affect that player's ability to hit will affect their productivity. The back problems really concern me, I really believe that has the potential to start limiting his performance during the next couple of seasons and is my primary motivation for wanted to see him get dealt. Sell high while the Brewers are able.

In the "Braun trade value now" I had posted the following prior to the trade deadline: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If the Dodgers are ready to deal Puig, do you think this would be a fair deal for each side? Dodgers get: OF-Ryan Braun 8 million dollars Brewers get: OF-Yasiel Puig RHP-Grant Holmes (since traded to the A's) OF-Starling Heredia RHP-Imani Abdullah (currently DL'ed) Thought process is the basic deal is Braun for Puig and Holmes, but Puig's money for 2017 and 2018 is 4 million less than Braun's defered money so the Brewers throw in 4 million immediately to balance that out. Then they basically purchase Heredia and Abdullah for 4 million to get the deal to go through. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In terms of prospect value, probably the most similar player to Grant Holmes left in the Dodger's system is OF-Alex Verdugo. So sub in Verdugo for Holmes and I would guess this would be the type of deal we'd see in a Braun/Puig swap. Note that Abdullah is currently DL'ed so it might be another PTBNL situation if the Brewers are intersted in him. I don't think the Dodgers have the luxury of trading Jose DeLeon. I've read that he's the next player in line for a call-up and with the number of pitchers DL'ed for the Dodgers I just don't think they are in a position to move him. I really like RHP-Yadier Alvarez. Kind of fits in the Triston McKenzie department. Tall, lean righty with a big arm and is overmatching the competition in the lower levels. Wouldn't be all the shocked if Stearns attempted to build a package around him instead of the higher rated prospects. All that being said, I still think the Astros are the best fit for Braun. Convert the option year into a player option and I don't think the no-trade clause is an issue at all.

I don't think the steroid issue has any impact on the way MLB teams view Braun. None. Zero. What I think most MLB teams see is a player that is 32 years old that has back and hand (thumb) problems and it's not likely that either of those two injury concerns ever go completely away. He has a guaranteed contract for 4 more years and from the end of this season forward is still to be paid a minimum of 80 million dollars. He may have a favorable contract now but how likely will that be in 2019 and 2020? It's only natural that a trading partner will look for the Brewers to pick up part of that deal or dump a bad contract on Milwaukee.

The Dodgers only have the 128 million committed for 2018, but adding in a 21 million luxury cap figure for Braun and the probably another 15 million for arbitration players (Grandal and Pederson should be approximately 10 of that 15 million), and then the Dodgers are only about 25 million below the threshold and would still have about another 10 players to add to fill out the 25 man roster. It is definitely possible the Dodgers would be willing to do this. They could see that as having enough wiggle-room (I don't). The speculation that the Dodgers might want to dip below the 189 million threshold in 2018 could be way off base. But if the Dodgers are currently looking at that season to "reset" the luxury tax meter to zero, adding Braun this off-season really could handcuff those efforts. At first I hated the idea of taking on McCarthy as a salary offset because he might be impossible to flip as he is seemingly ALWAYS injured (has made it through one season in the last ten?). But in any Braun deal the trading partner will probably demand the Brewers at least pick up the deferred portion of Braun's deal (18 million). If the Brewers take McCarthy instead, cots has him with a 10 million dollar salary in both 2017 and 2018 so it's almost a wash assuming deferred money assumption is correct. That's not a bad suggestion. Always better to get a player back in a deal than just eat money. And as suggested, if he's healthy he could be a good flip candidate at next year's trade deadline.

There have been some rumblings that the Dodgers are looking to get the payroll down to reset their luxury tax rate back to zero. They may have seemingly unlimited dollars, but owners still grow tired of paying the league 40 million dollars per season for basically nothing. The average annual value of Braun's deal is 21 million dollars and the Dodgers are in the 50% luxury tax bracket, so if they add him on top of their already huge payroll they have to pay the league 10.5 million after they pay Braun. That would very likely last through the 2018 season. I believe this makes a deal with the Dodgers much more difficult. They would probably demand the Brewers send them way more money than most would expect, or perhaps demand Scott Kazmir be packaged in the deal. I also don't think the no trade clause in Braun's contract is that big of a hurdle to get a deal done. Braun would probably approve a trade to any contender during the off-season as long as the team option for 2021 be converted into a player option. It's only an 11 million commitment above his current deal so a few extra million included by Milwaukee solves that problem. Milwaukee probably won't contend in the short-term and he'd likely have far more endorsement opportunities in a new market. Relocating his family in the off-season just isn't that big of a deal, teams are setup to handle this and if the opportunity is better for his career it's very unlikely that this would be a sticking point. I actually like the Astros as a really good fit. Their left field production has been terrible this season (.232/.288/.367/.655). Colby Rasmus is as good as gone. I don't think Preston Tucker is an everyday MLB left fielder. His brother, Kyle Tucker, is their left fielder of the future but he's in A ball and probably doesn't see the majors until 2019. If he proves to be the real deal then Braun moves to DH when he arrives. Houston has tremendous flexibility as they probably only have about 70 million committed in payroll for next season after the arbitration salaries are added in. Braun has a much better chance to win there and would be heading to one of the top 10 television markets. Why would he veto the opportunity if the teams convert the last year of the deal into a player option? It would guarantee him another 11 million dollars...or if he is still performing well he has the decision to rescind that year and maybe get a two year deal on the market for better money. Houston has a deep system, it's pretty likely that Stearns could find an acceptable return without having to demand one of the Astros top 5 prospects.

Met fans are probably thinking Lucroy would look great in one of their uniforms today. Mets have dropped to 2 games under .500 and are 6-12 so far in August. Lately their losses have been lopsided, but 5 of the 6 losses from August 1 to August 10 were decided by 2 runs or less. Jay Bruce hasn't been a positive contributor for them so far, slashing a dismal .176/.253/.294/.547. Also worth noting that the Met's first basemen are 14th in the NL in OPS (.709). Chris Carter may just be a +0.8 WAR player, but he would have been a pretty good upgrade for the Mets IMO and would have been a nice second piece in a deal. I'm not crying about the no-deal between the Mets and Brewers because Stearns ended up getting as much out of Texas as what he should have been demanding from the Mets. But man, Mets fans have to be disappointed now. All that pitching and under .500 120+ games into the season. Heads will probably roll there barring a pretty big turnaround.

I'd deal him at first opportunity and the main reason why is health. Has back and hand/thumb issues. Is on pace to play in 134 games this year, played in 140 last year and 135 the year before that. The number of games missed is likely to get larger. The Brewers will not be playoff team next year and will probably be a long-shot the season after that. Will he still be an .870+ OPS player in 2019, his age 35 season? Just as likely that he will be a average at best left field/first baseman bat that's missing 40 games per season and the team is sinking a considerable amount of money in him. Try and sell-high this off-season if at all possible.

Would've been the prequel to "Lucroy to the Indians" movie - highly likely Braun would have exercised his no trade clause and refused. I would expect Braun to accept a move to just about anywhere to get out of Milwaukee. With the Brewers figuring to be no better than average the next couple of years plus the PED episode it's reasonable to think he'd like the opportunity to play elsewhere. But like Lucroy, Braun and his agent probably wouldn't waive the no-trade clause for nothing. If Braun would be traded to a team on the no-trade list (or is traded after he gains 10/5 rights), it's pretty likely he'd demand that 2021 year on his contract would become a player option. That way he would be guaranteed 15 million for that season instead of 4 million. And if he would still be playing at a high level, he could just walk away from that contract and get a better deal on the free agent market. Would that extra 11 million of guaranteed money be a deal-breaker for the team he was traded to...possibly...also possible that the Brewers would have to kick even more money to the trade partner to get them to agree to guarantee that final year of the deal.

I had discussed a Braun/Puig deal in the Braun trade value thread and there are a couple aspects of this swap that I hadn't thought of or didn't know about. It's hard to keep Braun and Puig ideas separate, because if the Dodgers went after Braun it's just logical that they would dump Puig on the Brewers because there is no way they would be willing to take on 100% of Braun's contract. And Attanasio would probably rather get something back for his money rather than just writing the Dodgers a check. Puig has the option of opting out of his contract and choosing to go to arbitration instead. So if he was dealt to Milwaukee and hated it here, he could opt out of his contract and go to arbitration, then the Brewers could decline arbitration and Puig would be a free agent and Milwaukee wouldn't be on the hook for the 14 million he would have been owed under the old deal. He probably wouldn't decline arbitration after that trip to the minors; however, if the teams would have made a swap prior to the trade deadline and Puig had never been optioned out I think there is a good possibility he would have voided his deal and the Brewers could have been rid of him right away. That would have been a great situation for the Brewers. The other aspect is the Dodger's luxury tax situation. They will be in the 50% bracket next year and from what I read could be there for the next several seasons. Just a quick calculation has Braun as still being guaranteed 80 million from 2017 on, and that's assuming a team opts out of 2021 and pays him the 4 million buyout. So while on the surface it looks like Braun is on a 4 year, 80 million dollar deal...for the Dodgers that could actually be a 4 year, 120 million dollar deal. 30 million per season. Now I have my doubts if the Dodgers would be interested in him at all.

I like Conforto a lot but I'm sticking with what I was thinking 2 weeks ago, if the Mets wanted Lucroy they had to start with Amed Rosario AND Dominic Smith and after they added another minor league piece or two then the Brewers could have included a reliever to balance it out. In strict terms of value I think Brinson + Ortiz + PTBNL would equal Rosario + Smith + Thomas Szapucki...so unless the Mets were willing to give up both their top prospects they were never going to be able to match what other teams were going to put on the table.

This is how I'd group the Ranger's system now: Elite Prospects (generally somewhere around the top 5-10 prospects in all of baseball): None Top 50 Prospects: 3B/1B-Joey Gallo (cannot be PTBNL) Top 100 Prospects: LHP-Yohander Mendez Organizational Top 10 Prospects (would be roughly in the top 300 prospects): 2B-Andy Ibanez OF-Eric Jenkins OF-Leody Taveras LHP-Cole Ragans (just drafted, cannot be PTBNL) 1B-Ronald Guzman 3B/SS-Josh Morgan RHP-Ariel Jurado Role Player: OF-Ryan Cordell RHP-Alex Speas (just drafted, cannot be PTBNL) OF-Jairo Beras SS/2B-Michael DeLeon LHP-Brett Martin RHP-Connor Sadzeck RHP-Jose Leclerc RHP-Michael Matuella LHP-Andrew Faulkner RHP-Luke Jackson OF-Miguel Aparicio SS-Yeyson Yrizarri RHP-Pedro Payano RHP-Jonathan Hernandez C-Jose Trevino

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/columnists/tom-haudricourt/2016/08/06/haudricourt-did-brewers-get-enough-texas-trade/88318510/ Direct quote from Stearns: “The player to be named later will also be a player we like a lot who will contribute to our system.” Toned down from the language that has been thrown around before now. I can't see anyway the PTBNL is Mendez. Why wouldn't the Brewers have immediately taken him if he was available? No way would the Brewers leave him in the Ranger's system, they would take him so they would have 100% control over his workload.

My guess is that Pedro Payano is the target and the only reason his name wasn't in the original deal is because of his DL status. If for some reason he doesn't look good when he returns then Stearns probably has low level, high upside options available like OF-Jose Almonte or RHP-Tyler Phillips to pick from. I'd be pretty surprised if it's a player like Guzman or Jurado. Those guys have a pretty decent track record and certainly would have been well scouted by the Brewers, it's hard to believe that the Brewers needed more time to research these players. Also not convinced that Milwaukee/Texas really did run out of time when trying to figure out which player in that class of player to include in the deal.

I'd be shocked if Garza hasn't already been put on waivers (Monday) and cleared (today).

At first this trade looked like highway robbery for the Brewers, but the more I read about Bickford the more I understand why the Giants were willing to deal him away. Sounds like his mechanics are all over the place, and if the minor league coaches/instructors felt he'd never iron out those issues he's an easy sell high trade chip. Obviously a super-talented guy, drafted in the top 20 twice, so I love to have him in the organization. But it is pretty easy to see him becoming a big tease like Wily Peralta if he never learns to repeat his delivery and put the ball where he wants it most of the time. On the flip side, really like Susac more and more with additional reading up on him. He was in Baseball America's top 100 before the 2015 season. Probably not a superstar talent, but looks like he could be MLB above average in just about every department. Hasn't gotten on base consistently as a MLB'er but did at every level before that. Has 15 home run potential. Good receiver. Plus arm. At worst this player should stick with the big league club as one of the better backup catchers in MLB. Pretty good chance to be a solid everyday player. I'm kind of surprised the Brewer's didn't put Susac on the active roster right away. Manny Pina needs to impress over the next few weeks.

ERA may not be great but peripherals are solid. Nearly a 5:1 K:BB ratio for a 20 year old in AA. Only 3 HR's allowed in nearly 40 innings. Would love to see what the BABIP number is, bet it's pretty high based on the pitching line.

1. SS-Orlando Arcia 2. OF-Brett Phillips 3. OF-Lewis Brinson 4. RHP-Luis Ortiz 5. LHP-Josh Hader 6. OF-Corey Ray 7. OF-Trent Clark 8. RHP-Phil Bickford 9. SS/2B-Isan Diaz 10. RHP-Jorge Lopez 11. RHP-Cody Ponce 12. SS-Gilbert Lara 13. RHP-Marcos Diplan 14. RHP-Devin Williams 15. RHP-Freddy Peralta 16. C/1B-Jacob Nottingham 17. LHP-Kodi Medeiros 18. RHP-Brandon Woodruff 19. RHP-Corbin Burnes 20. 3B-Lucas Erceg 21. OF-Monte Harrison 22. OF-Tyrone Taylor 23. OF-Demi Orimoloye 24. RHP-Braden Webb 25. RHP-Miguel Diaz

I wonder if the target of the PTBNL business is RHP-Pedro Payano? He's DL'ed and Eye Black dug up some information which indicates that the injury wouldn't be a long-term concern, but Stearns may have wanted to play it safe and see this player back on the mound before including him in the deal.

Despite the crazy returns that came for some relief pitchers, I think this is a solid trade for both sides really. I would have preferred avoiding Brinson (not that I dislike him, just would have rather structured the deal differently) and going for a greater number of prospects. But looking strictly at value, would a package of Taveras + Guzman + Jurado bring more value than Brinson? It could be argued either way, which makes it a "push" situation. I really like Ortiz if he's OK medically. Certainly isn't the prettiest guy out there, but looks like a guy that has confidence in his stuff and will go out there and pound the zone and generate some quick outs with the movement he gets on his pitches. Lots of talk about Yohander Mendez but the bottom line is that Ortiz is still listed higher than Mendez on pretty much every top Ranger's prospect list that I have seen. I definitely like this better than the Cleveland deal, where every prospect after Mejia was pretty shakey. Really like the Stearns packaged the two players and got two players back that are better than anybody Stearns would have gotten back had he packaged them separately.

Well it looks like I'll have my plate of crow tonight. Never expected to get this type of return for any of the relief pitchers. Bickford seems like a great prospect well worthy of the #50-#70 rankings he's getting on the top 100 prospect lists. Susac's MLB stats look pretty ordinary at this time, but he's a former top 100 prospect himself that could develop into a solid MLB catcher. Stearns definitely gets high marks for this one.

No. Really expected it when it appeared that the Rangers were the front-runners. The Rangers #1 need is still a front-line starter, and they need to make sure (and after that make doubly-sure) that they won't be able to obtain one. Only then should they go to the Plan B option which would be Lucroy and then probably have to settle for Guerra as a part of that deal. It's also pretty likely that the Brewers have requested that negotiations be kept pretty quiet after the no-trade with Cleveland.

I agree with madtownhawk about the return that can be expected. If the Brewer do a Lucroy plus a reliever swap, and demand 1B-Joey Gallo or OF-Lewis Brinson, the return will lack quality on the back end. I'd expect it to be something like Gallo/Brinson + OF-Leody Taveras + RHP-Conner Sadzeck. Still think it would be better to subtract out one of those top prospects, add Guerra, and really attempt to go for a return that has great depth in the package. Best hope consists of Lucroy + reliever + Guerra for RHP-Luis Ortiz (if OK medically), LHP-Yohander Mendez, OF-Leody Taveras, 1B-Ronald Guzman, RHP-Ariel Jurado. There may not be a superstar in that package, but the back-end prospects in that type of deal are quality. I'm not sure who would be considered the last piece in this deal (Taveras, Guzman, Jurado), but that last piece would easily be better than the third piece in the aborted Cleveland deal (Allen) and just might be better than the second piece in the aborted Cleveland deal (Chang). 4 of the 5 already in AA and performing well. No staff ace among the group but it's not crazy to think of Ortiz, Mendez and Jurado being future #2/#3/#4 starters. Guzman probably won't be a true masher at first base, but it's reasonable to think he could provide an Adam Lind-type bat. Taveras is the young athlete with upside.

RHP-Dillon Tate kind of worries me. He was listed in the top 50 overall on many lists at the beginning of the season but has disappeared from most top 100 lists. The results haven't been good so far this year but Texas has been developing him as a starter while he had mostly been a reliever. His third pitch is a circle change and it isn't very good, he's throwing it much more in an attempt to develop that third pitch and that's probably part of the reason for his mediocre performance this year. He was a really high pick and his value may be over-inflated because of that. Intriguing arm, but have to wonder if he'll be a starter or bullpen guy. Definitely a player that scouts will have to do their homework on. Based on what I've read, I think there is a pretty big dropoff between RHP-Luis Ortiz/LHP-Yohander Mendez and Tate.