JosephC

I will also say that the national media's coverage of the Pro Days has been nothing short of abysmal this year. Worse than it was 20 years ago. Finding any results is nearly impossible. I don't know if they are only running positional drills at these workouts, or if most prospects are just refusing to do the "standard tests," or if for some reason the NFL has cracked down and doesn't want this information out. All I can find on the Oregon Pro Day is that Tez Johnson did not run the 40 (which was surprising as his 40 was slower than expected in Indianapolis) and that Jabbar Muhammad's vertical was 2 inches better than it was in Indianapolis.

Lots of Ducks make sense for the Packers. If all the top DEs and WRs are off the board at #23, which could happen...then the first round pick likely comes down to CB or DT and Derrick Harmon is a candidate at #23. If the Packers do not go defensive end in round one, Jordan Burch could be the top candidate with the second round pick. Tight end Terrance Ferguson is on the rise (up to #108 in my compilation of top prospect lists) and is a strong candidate for the Packers third round pick. I still think there is a pretty strong chance the Packers take a tight end higher than anticipated. Right tackle Ajani Cornelius could be a later round sleeper candidate. He would likely kick inside to guard and compete there. How he works out could make or break him, as he did nothing in Indianapolis. And I'll throw this out there. I've done some mocks where the guy who seemed to make the most sense with the first round pick was left tackle Josh Conerly. I don't think there is any chance that Gutekunst goes left tackle in round one in back-to-back drafts. But, if Morgan has given the Packers the impression that he is not a future starting left tackle, and Walker's free agency is right around the corner...maybe it wouldn't be so surprising after all.

Hardman, another guy who always seem to be hurt.

I would not pick Biggers. There are other late round, likely undrafted DTs that I have more interest in, my favorite being Nebraska's Nash Hutmacher. Biggers is one of those seventh rounders you pick and then hope to get him through to the practice squad, where you have a year to work with his athletic ability. He's the type of seventh round gamble you take when you have 11 or 12 picks...which the Packers do not.

There are reports that Hendrickson is shooting for Myles Garrett money...4 years, 160 million dollars...and doesn't appear to be budging much. If he is stuck on, let's say 150 million at a minimum (pure speculation), that is too rich for my blood. We are probably looking at a 4 year deal with a void year added right from the get go. 60 million signing bonus. Yearly cap numbers would be something like 14 million in 2025, 32 million in 2026, 41.5 million in 2027, 50.5 million in 2028 and then 12 million in the void year in 2029. If something happened (injury, declining performance) and it was determined it was best to part ways after 2027, that would be 36 million in dead money....same situation but after 2028, 24 million in dead money. I'm used to the idea that business in the NFL is just going to result in yearly dead money hits of 15, 20, 25 million per season...but potentially having one guy with that type of dead money hit is pretty ugly to think about.

The thing that Amari Cooper brings is more of a down-the-field type threat. Last year was not a good year, Cleveland turned out to be more than it's usual disaster and then he got traded mid-season and there is that adjustment period when going to a new team. He was also battling a wrist injury during his time in Buffalo. But in 2023 Cooper averaged 17.4 yards per catch. In 2022 Cooper averaged 14.9 yards per catch. Total over the last three years, 15.2 yards per catch. I don't think we'll see near that from Kupp or Allen. Cooper is also a very good locker room guy. His mentorship of CeeDee Lamb while in Dallas is pretty well known.

Amari Cooper and Dante Fowler are the only two remaining free agents that I would have any interest in at all. I wouldn't be interested in giving Cooper a contract that includes 3 seasons with 35 million dollar cap numbers, but would still be willing to throw pretty significant money at him. Fowler...only would be interested in a 1 year deal for modest money. He had 10.5 sacks last year but is a wildly inconsistent player. Probably only a pass-rush specialist for Green Bay. I think he's a better fit as a 3-4 OLB. There is a reason he's been with 5 teams in 9 seasons. Alot to dislike, but he has shown that he can get after the passer and that's a big need right now. Worth a gamble at a reasonable price.

Those are the snaps in the games he's played. Overall snap count- https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/2022-snap-counts.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/2023-snap-counts.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/2024-snap-counts.htm

Another interesting thing about Banks. Percentage of offensive snaps played. 2023 = 88.27% 2024 = 78.52% 2025 = 71.83%

The Packers have about 34.5 million in cap space when including the Hobbs contract and the upcoming rookie contracts. If they release Alexander with a post-June 1 designation, that creates another 17 million in cap space, putting them up to about 51.5 million. I would estimate the first year of the Banks contract will have a cap figure of about 9 million, but it could be higher since the word is they have put 63 million in the first three years (my guess is a 30 million dollar signing bonus, and then yearly earning of 1.5 million, 11.5 million, 20 million, 14 million...which would make the cap numbers 9 million, 19 million, 27.5 million, 21.5 million...but they could have balanced the first three years out more). But if my 9 million dollar guess is in the ballpark, the Packers probably still have about 42.5 million in cap space left. One would have to think that a Tom extension happens before the season starts, so I would set aside another 10-11 million for that. So I still think they have another 31.5 million in cap space to play with.

Hobbs contract is up at OverTheCap Yearly cap numbers- 2025 = $5,998,235 2026 = $13,050,000 2027 = $14,050,000 2028 = $14,700,000

Yeah, based on free agent rankings, I don't see it. The article on nfl.com had Banks as the 10th best interior offensive lineman- https://www.nfl.com/news/top-101-nfl-free-agents-of-2025-ranked-by-position-which-spots-have-most-least-depth PFF had him ranked #72 on their free agent ranking- https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2025-nfl-free-agent-rankings The 77 million ranks 6th among guards and the average per year of 19.25 ranks 7th among guards. According to Pro Football Reference, Hobbs has only appeared in 35 games over the last 3 seasons with 29 starts. I realize he's a slot cornerback so he is not going to be an automatic start for every game, but pretty big money to a guy who averages 11.7 games per season and 9.7 starts per season.

3 years, 48 million? That seems like a really reasonable price.

Carlton Davis off the board. 3 years, 60 million to the Pats. That is higher than I would have gone. Going back to Dalman. His price was a bit lower than expected. Would have liked to have seen the Packers get involved in that.

Bears add center Drew Dalman, 3 years, 42 million. They had a ton of available money heading into this off-season and, depending on how Dalman's contract is structured, have spent about 70-75% of it on the interior offensive line. Bengals re-sign defensive tackle BJ Hill to a 3 year, 33 million dollar deal. He would have been one of my top targets for Green Bay as a solid value-type signing.

Since the combine I have only found two updated rankings from writers who are high profile enough to be getting feedback from NFL personnel. Daniel Jeremiah has Hairston at #32 in his rankings and Lance Zierlein has Hairston's grade tied for 31st best with two other players. So I think Hairston is solidly in the late round one/early round two area currently. As far as Barron, Jeremiah has him #8 and Zierlein's grade has him tied at #19...so I considered him gone by pick #23. Amos...Jeremiah has at #41 and Zierlein has his grade tied for #66, too low for me to predict that he would be Gutekunst's pick. The guy who I keep going back to is Azareye'h Thomas. For no reason in particular he is the guy who I think the Packer's could take, but I felt uncomfortable with that projection considering he hasn't run yet and Gutekunst so clearly prefers "athletes."

Pre-free agency prediction of Packers off-season. This is not "my plan," but rather a prediction of what the team does. TRADE = CB-Jaire Alexander and 7th round pick (#239) to the Commanders. Packers receive a 6th round pick (#207). The Commanders have a ton of cap space (almost 74 million and that is AFTER they pay all the draft picks) and significant depth issues at cornerback, so this is a deal that could make sense for both sides. If a trade cannot be made, Alexander is released to create salary cap space. EXTENSION #1 = RT-Zach Tom. 5 years, 110 million, 42 million guaranteed. 30 million signing bonus, and between base salary + bonuses the yearly earnings are 4 million in 2025, 10.5 in 2026, 15.5 in 2027, 21.5 in 2028 and 28.5 in 2029. Cap numbers break down as 10.126 million in 2025, 16.5 million in 2026, 21.5 million in 2027, 27.5 million in 2028 and 34.5 million in 2029. EXTENSION #2 = CB-Eric Stokes. 2 years, 9.5 million, 4.5 million guaranteed. 3 million signing bonus, and between base salary + bonuses the yearly earnings are 1.5 million in 2025 and 5 million in 2026. Cap numbers are 3 million in 2025 and 6.5 million in 2026. Josh Myers is higher on the free agent lists than I would have expected. So I'm speculating that Gutekunst does approach Myers but the ask is for too much money and too many years, FREE AGENT #1 = DE-Dayo Odeyingbo. 4 years, 67 million with 39 million guaranteed. 20 million signing bonus, and between base salary + bonuses the yearly earnings are 1.5 million in 2025, 9.5 million in 2026, 15.5 million in 2027 and 20.5 million in 2028. Cap numbers would be 6.5 in 2025, 14.5 in 2026, 20.5 in 2027 and 25.5 in 2028. Odeyingbo to the Packers is the one Packer's rumor I've heard so far this off-season that I'd guess has legs. FREE AGENT #2 = C-Bradley Bozeman. 2 years, 17 million, 8 million guaranteed. 5 million signing bonus, and between base salary + bonuses the yearly earnings are 3 million in 2025 and 9 million in 2026. Cap numbers would be 5.5 million in 2025 and 11.5 million in 2026. I'd guess Gutekunst is in love with Georgia center Jared Wilson, but it's currently looking like he might be an early-to-mid third round pick, which means the Packers would probably have to spend a second rounder to get him. Even though Gutekunst has taken a round two center in the past, I think the team needs prevent him from doing it in 2025. I also think Gutekunst would probably like Boston College center Drew Kendall, but I don't think there is enough quality center depth in this draft to roll into day three with Kendall being the only option. So Gutekunst goes with plan B and signs an average player who is reliable that can be plugged in if Monk isn't an NFL quality starting center. Bozeman also has 2 NFL seasons as a starting left guard, so there is some versatility there as well. FREE AGENT #3 = CB-Mike Jackson. 2 years, 8 million, 3 million guaranteed. 3 million dollar signing bonus, and between base salary + bonuses the yearly earnings are 1.2 million in 2025 and 3.8 million in 2026. Cap numbers would be 2.7 million in 2025 and 5.3 million in 2026. If the Packers take an early round (1/2) cornerback, then Valentine, Nixon and a rookie are the top 3, so Stokes and Jackson are really here for depth purposes, and after adding some rookie free agents, signing Jackson pretty much eliminates the need for the Packers to have to target a second cornerback in the draft. I've only found Jackson in one top free agent cornerback list on an "indy" site (WalterFootball), and he is nowhere to be found on the cornerback list for any "major" media outlet...so I am assuming he will be cheaply priced. He played in a pretty remarkable 98.9% of defensive snaps for Carolina last year, and held up fairly well (from the information that I was able to scrape together), so maybe he'll end up going for more money. We'll have to wait and see. I plugged all this into OverTheCap's calculator and remaining cap room after these deals would be 30.2 million in 2025, 37.6 million in 2026 and 104 million in 2027. So after paying rookies, the Packers would still have a bit over 20 million in cap space left for another extension or two that would probably occur later. Only having 37.6 million in 2026 may seem a bit tight at first glance, but Jenkins has an 18.5 million dollar salary and Gary has an 18 million dollar salary...just moving those two base salaries to signing bonuses would push the cap space to over 60 million, so the above extensions and free agent contracts all seem to fit within the constraints of the salary cap. THE DRAFT Gutekunst loves athletes, so here we go- ROUND ONE (#23) = Maxwell Hairston/CB/Kentucky Had been grading as a late round two pick, but probably sits late round one/very early round two post-combine. I don't think he'll be picked ahead of #23. Nixon may want to be a CB1, but Gutekunst will likely expect the configuration to be Valentine and Hairston and then Nixon as the nickel CB from day one. I also think Florida State's Azareye'h Thomas and East Carolina's Shavon Revel may be preferred as they are both significantly taller...but they didn't run at Indy. If either of these guys are sub-4,4 during the Pro Day, Gutekunst would likely pick one of them because of the height factor (for the record, Hairston is 5-11 1/4, so he's not really undersized for a cornerback - by comparison, Jaire Alexander, Gutekunst's first pick, was 5-10 1/4 at the 2018 combine). TRADE = Eagles get pick #54 (2nd round) and #160 (5th round). Packers get #64 (second round) and #96 (third round). Gutekunst had targeted Iowa State WR-Jayden Higgins for a trade up, but when Higgins goes way higher than expected, Gutekunst isn't blown away by what is left at #54 and looks to trade down. Eagles move up to #54 to select Purdue OG-Marcus Mbow. ROUND TWO (#64) = Elic Ayomanor/WR/Stanford 6-1 3/4 with long arms, big hands, 4.44 40-yard dash and 38.5 inch vertical jump. 2 years at Stanford - 125 catches, 1844 yards, 14.8 yards per catch, 12 touchdowns. ROUND THREE (#87) = Ty Robinson/DT/Nebraska Listed at 310 pounds on Nebraska's site, was 288 pounds at the combine. Likely can play inside or outside. Packers pick him with the idea of him being in the 305-310 range and playing inside. ROUND THREE (#96) = Smael Mondon Jr./LB/Georgia Undersized (224 pounds) coverage linebacker with plenty of experience in a top program (32 starts). Gutekunst loves Bulldogs. ROUND FOUR (#123) = Caleb Rogers/OG/Texas Tech Every draft has to have at least one "what the hell" pick and this is it. The Packers are 1 or 2 offensive linemen short at this point, and their next pick does not happen until #200, and the board is super-thin for offensive linemen that late in this draft. Gutekunst would rather take a left tackle to provide insurance if Jordan Morgan cannot back up Rasheed Walker, but ends up taking a college right tackle that projects to guard in the NFL. Rogers had an incredible 55 college starts....if I have this figured correctly, 36 starts at right tackle, 16 starts at left tackle, 2 starts at left guard and 1 start at right guard. I think he's grading out more as a 6th rounder at this point, but Gutekunst over-drafts him here based on the combine numbers. ROUND SIX (#200) = Jaylin Conyers/TE/Texas Tech Another Red Raider. Modest college production as a pass-catcher but had a great workout at Indy. ROUND SIX (#207) = Chimere Dike/WR/Florida Ex-Badger ran a 4.34 40-time at Indianapolis and has always been the down-the-field threat. Although Dike isn't great at doing anything else, he's worth a roll-of-the-dice 7th rounder as a possible field-stretcher. ROUND SEVEN (#251) = Ethan Downs/DE/Oklahoma 269 pounds, 4.69 40-yard dash and 32 reps at 225. IMO, below-average to bad results in the 20 yard shuttle and the 3-cone drill. 3-year starter at Oklahoma, totaled 29 tackles for loss and 12 sacks over those 3 years.

That's just the media playing QB musical chairs. Rodgers most likely spot had seemed to be Las Vegas, now that spot is filled, so let's look at the hole that was just created. Seattle...now it sound like they are going to go QB stupid and throw ridiculous money at Darnold, what hole does that create? Minnesota! Problem there is the GM used a 1st, 4th and 5th round pick (got a 7th back) to draft JJ McCarthy and his ego will prevent him from giving Rodgers a sizable contract where he could put the big draft investment on the bench. The Vikings will go out and sign this year's veteran version of Darnold for insurance, but ultimately the people that drafted McCarthy will want him to be the starting QB. A month ago I didn't think the Giants were a possibility as I thought they would end up with Shedeur Sanders. But Sanders draft stock is tanking to the point where I think the Jets taking him at #7 would be a huge reach. I also think the Titans refuse all offers and take Cam Ward #1. At #3, even a really dumb team like the Giants could justify taking Sanders ahead of Travis Hunter or Andre Carter. So I agree, at this point they are the team with the QB hole that becomes the most likely to sign Rodgers. Lots of talk about the Steelers and Justin Fields, but that is a pretty reasonable spot for Rodgers to land.

There was a reporter who yesterday said that Seattle has a number of offers for Metcalf in hand and could confirm that one of those offers included a third round pick. It doesn't sound like the market is very hot right now, but I would expect it to heat up. Seattle is probably a bit hurt by the fact that there are 4 WRs IMO that carry top 20 overall grades in the upcoming NFL draft, and the free agent list includes Chris Godwin, Davante Adams and Amari Cooper. Eventually, I think the price for Metcalf will end up being the value of an early-mid second round pick. If a deal were to happen with Green Bay, my best guess would be something like- Packers get - DK Metcalf, #137 overall pick in 2025 draft (very late fourth) Seahawks get - #54 overall pick in 2025 draft (second round), #87 overall pick in 2025 draft (third round)

Seattle wants a first and third round pick for DK Metcalf. Metcalf also wants a new deal that would average 30 million per season. This is from Dianna Russini, who works for The Athletic, so a credible source.

It all depends on the money involved. I'm for it if it's something like a 3 year, 42 million dollar deal with something like 45% guaranteed. The buzz leads me to believe that something like 4 years, 68 million with about 50% guaranteed is a possibility, that would be too rich for me considering he doesn't profile as a consistent pass-rush threat. While looking around for information, I stumbled across this short clip.

Zierlein at nfl.com just posted a new mock and there is some crazy stuff in it. #4 - Patriots - OT-Armand Membou/Missouri He could be the best tackle in this draft, but still a bit odd to see a right tackle as a top 5 pick. Last year the Titans took right tackle JC Latham at #7 and immediately put him at left tackle, I would think the same thing would probably happen here. #9 - Saints - EDGE-Shemar Stewart/Texas A&M I don't think Packer fans have much to dwell on anymore with Stewart. He will go well above #23. #14 - Colts - OG-Tyler Booker/Alabama IMO he's a very late first rounder or second rounder. He had been rising but I thought a terrible combine performance would knock him back down where he belongs. #14 seems really high. #23 - Packers - CB-Jahdae Barron/Texas I wouldn't be surprised. May not seem like an ideal scheme fit, but when guys run a 4.39, NFL coaches (all with big egos) figure they can make anything out fast guys. #25 - Cardinals (following trade) - WR-Luther Burden III/Missouri I've had the Packers top two needs as CB and DE, but would take Burden at #23 if this is how the draft fell. Only minor concern was that Missouri listed him at 5-11. which generally means the guy is really 5-9 1/2. But Burden measured/weighed in at 6-0 (on the nose) and 206 pounds. Good enough size, great play speed and quickness, plus hands and dynamic run-after-the-catch ability. IMO an easy, no-brainer pick. #29 - Browns - QB-Shedeur Sanders/Colorado OUCH! Only player that didn't make round one that is surprising is Ohio State WR-Emeka Egbuka. I still think that the big four receivers - McMillan, Burden, Golden, Egbuka - will all be off the board by the time the Packers pick. Time will tell though, only takes 1 free agent signing to push a player down the board a few spots.

Slay would be a good addition. Last year QBs had a 63.6 QB rating when targeting him and only 5.5 yards per attempt. https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/darius-slay-eagles-cornerbacks/ Seems like he has quite a bit left in the tank. Also known as a leader and plus locker room presence. I would still have Carlton Davis as my #1 CB target, but would definitely slot Slay (well) ahead of Kristian Fulton as my #2 target.

Texas A&M had Scourton listed at 285 pounds, and he weighted in at 257 at the combine. And Scourton did nothing at the combine, so he wasn't playing the somewhat common game of "drop weight for better workout numbers at Indy and then gain weight for the pro day where I can sit out since I already did the testing." Scourton did have 5 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss in his 1 year at Texas A&M, Not jaw-dropping, but solid, Certainly better than the 4.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss that Stewart posted in 3 years.

McDuffie's deal may be in the top 40 for linebackers, but still will only account for about 1.5% of the team's cap. His coverage grades are bad, but the Packers probably only see him as a run-down player moving forward. Last year the snap counts on defense were Walker = 68.6%, McDuffie = 64.19%, Wilson = 51.24%, Cooper = 45.09%, Hopper = 1.65%. Plan moving forward is likely to have McDuffie's amount of snaps go to Cooper, McDuffie ends up with Wilson's snaps and Hopper can fill the void left by Wilson. If Hopper develops, he jumps into McDuffie's spot and then McDuffie is a cut candidate next off-season. McDuffie also playing on special teams likely played a role in the Packers bringing him back. I think it was in the Packer's best interest to bring back either McDuffie or Wilson, because if they lost both they would be down to just Walker, Cooper and Hopper with Hopper barely having seen the field on defense last year. They still need to add one linebacker and will likely do that in the later rounds of the draft, although some could very reasonably argue they should take one earlier since Walker is a free agent after this season.