JosephC

Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka in for an official visit. Egbuka has really grown on me, not because of any positive outstanding traits, but more because there just aren't any real negatives surrounding him. He has solid size - 6-0 7/8, 202 pounds, 31 1/2 inch arms Athletic ability is solid - 4.45 40, 38" vertical jump, 4.12 short shuttle College production was very good - 2677 receiving yards and 24 touchdowns over last three season, missed some time in 2023 with a sprained ankle Injury history - Had the aforementioned sprained ankle, that didn't have any negative impact on his play in 2024. Could not find any other information regarding any notable injuries. Character - No known character issues. For whatever reason, now that he has a solid link to Green Bay, I doubt he will be the Packer's pick. But I have really grown to like this guy. Golden was never very productive prior to this last season, and there were instances this season where Burden just didn't seem that competitive. The Packers also had Golden in for a visit, but looking at the history of production, I would much rather see them take Egbuka. Removing Travis Hunter from the equation, it's interesting how different the next 4 wide receivers are in this class. McMillan is the big guy with a huge catch radius and excellent ball skills. Golden is the speed guy. Burden is the dynamic run-after-catch guy. Egbuka is the smooth, fluid and precise route runner. I would throw Higgins into that group, but he's lagging far behind the others when assembling a consensus board. Right now the board that I assemble (from the draft reporters, not from me) has the receiver ranking at follows: 1. Travis Hunter/CB-WR/Colorado (#1 overall) 2. Tetairoa McMillan/Arizona (#8 overall) 3. Luther Burden III/Missouri (#13 overall) 4. Matthew Golden/Texas (#24 overall) 5. Emeka Egbuka/Ohio State (#26 overall) 6. Jack Bech/Texas Christian (early to mid round two) 7. Jayden Higgins/Iowa State (mid to late round two) 8. Tre Harris/Mississippi (late round two) 9. Elic Ayomanor/Stanford (late round two/early round three) 10. Jalen Royals/Utah State (early to mid round three) 11. Jaylin Noel/Iowa State (early to mid round three) 12. Isaiah Bond/Texas (mid round three) 13. Xavier Restrepo/Miami, Fl (late round three/early round four) 14. Savion Williams/Texas Christian (late round three/early round four) 15. Tez Johnson/Oregon (mid round four) 16. Tory Horton/Colorado State (mid round four) 17. Dominic Lovett/Georgia (late round four/early round five) 18. Nick Nash/San Jose State (early to mid round five) 19. Kyle Williams/Washington State (early to mid round five) 20. Elijhah Badger/Florida (mid round five) 21. Dont'e Thornton Jr./Tennessee (mid round five) 22. Pat Bryant/Illinois (mid to late round five) 23. Jaylin Lane/Virginia Tech (late round five) 24. Isaac TeSlaa/Arkansas (round six)

At first I thought he was the typical Rays type pitcher, a guy who throws a lot of high fastballs with good spin. That was his reputation a few years ago. The problem is the velocity on the 4-seamer is now about 93 MPH per Baseball Savant and the spin rate is not even average. He has evolved into a sinker/slider pitcher that also throws a curveball, change-up and still uses the 4-seamer. The curveball sits at 81 MPH but all the other pitches are right in that 87-93 MPH window. There is nothing that really stands out in the velocity/movement data that makes him seem like a real attractive guy to go out and get. Strikeout rate was only 5.98 per 9 innings in the majors last year, probably due to him now being primarily a sinker/slider type pitcher. Solid ground-ball rate but still has a HR/FB rate of 17.1%. Have to wonder if the Brewers will have him stick to this path, or if they have spotted some mechanical adjustment to bring some of that velocity back.

Actually, there are a few team that do that with top 5 picks. The Colts would be the most recent example.

If the salary cap situation for 2026 was so dire, I very much doubt Gutekunst would have signed a guard whose contract has a 24.85 million dollar cap number for 2026. Again, in my dream world, my signings for the Packer would have started with DT-BJ Hill and CB- DJ Reed. I have the overall money and guaranteed money 5% over what they got and the assumption that they would have taken the highest offer. BJ Hill contract = 3 years, 34.65 million, 11.55 million guaranteed 11.55 million signing bonus 2025 = 1.5 million salary, 2025 cap number = 5.35 million 2026 = 5.0 million salary, 3 million roster bonus (March), 2026 cap number = 11.85 million 2027 = 10.6 million salary, 3 million roster bonus (March), 2027 cap number = 17.45 million DJ Reed contract = 3 years, 50.5 million, 33.6 million guaranteed 25 million signing bonus 2025 = 1.5 million salary (guaranteed), 2025 cap number = 9.833 million 2026 = 3.0 million salary, 7.1 million roster bonus (March, roster bonus is guaranteed), 2026 cap number = 18.433 2027 = 6.8 million salary, 7.1 million roster bonus (March), 2027 cap number = 22.233 million Yearly cap numbers for Hill and Reed= 2025 = 15.183 million 2026 = 30.283 million 2027 = 39.683 million (releasing both would result in 12.183 million of dead cap space) Yearly cap numbers for Banks and Hobbs= 2025 = 15.020 million 2026 = 37.9 million 2027 = 36.3 million 2028 = 35.45 million I'd also be looking heavily at Amari Cooper, but really can't do a projection on him until he signs. Last year was not good but it sounds like a wrist injury pretty much derailed him once he got to Buffalo. I wouldn't be too concerned about the future impact of a wrist injury. In 2022 and 2023 combined he only missed two games, had 150 catches for 2410 yards (a very attractive 16.1 yards per reception) and 14 touchdowns. If he can be had for a bargain price, I'd be all for it.

I just don't think people were all that impressed with throwing big money at a guard, a guard whose play has been pretty "standard" by most measures and a player whose snap count has been dropping year by year. With how Over The Cap has players categorized by position, Banks has the 6th highest average value per year contract for a guard. Is Banks really a top 10 guard? I think that alone probably sums it up as how the general public feels. I don't think most Packer fans could probably give a hoot about Nate Hobbs one way or the other. Let me go more in-depth on him. When factoring in the money, I can see why they signed Nate Hobbs. Last year was, by far, his best season when taking a look at the various statistics. It's pretty obvious that Gutekunst sees him as an ascending player, because this is a bad signing if he reverts back to the form he showed from 2021-2023. But even if the 2024 Hobbs is the real Hobbs moving forward, it still seems like risky signing considering how many games he's missed. When looking at the stats, his performance last year fell somewhere between Nixon (who was very good) and Valentine (who the numbers show was very bad....the 80.2 QB rating against makes it appears that he was excellent, but that is because he didn't surrender a TD...completion percentage against...yards per target...all the other numbers were not good). So I had initially wanted a different cornerback, but in my dream world would have pivoted to DJ Reed after missing out my preferred target. Reed signed for 3 years, 48 million, Let's say the Packers would have to go 5% over that to sign him, it would make his deal 3 years, 50.5 million with 33.6 million guaranteed (again, a 5% increase there). Hobbs is similar money, but for an extra year. Average per year for the deals would be 16.83 million for Reed and 12 million for Hobbs. Considering the Packers salary cap situation, I would have gladly paid the extra money for Reed. 2024 Hobbs was by far the best Hobbs. In 2024 Hobbs played in 49.87% of the team's defensive snaps, completion percentage against him was 64.7%, yards allowed per target as 6.3, yards after catch per reception against was 6.5, QB rating against was 87.2, he allowed 2 touchdown, he had 1 interception and missed tackle percentage was 19.7% (in fairness, the missed tackle percentage was by far the worst of his career). In 2024 Reed played in 76.66% of the team's defensive snaps, completion percentage against was 57.1%, yards allowed per target was 6.4, yards after catch per reception was 3.1, QB rating against was 87.1, he allowed 2 touchdowns, did not have an interception, and his missed tackle percentage was 7.2%. I'd take Reed when looking at the 2024 numbers. If you want to take the average number from the last three years- percentage of defensive snaps played - Reed = 87.94%, Hobbs = 59.24% completion percentage against - Reed = 59.8%, Hobbs = 69.9% yards allowed per target - Reed = 6.3, Hobbs = 6.9 yards after catch per reception against - Reed = 3.6, Hobbs = 5.5 QB rating against - Reed = 83.5, Hobbs = 101.5 Touchdowns allowed - Reed = 6, Hobbs = 11 Interceptions - Reed = 2, Hobbs = 2 Missed tackle percentage = Reed = 7.5%, Hobbs = 12.7% A three year deal for Reed covers age 29, 30 and 31 seasons. To get out of the contract after the second year, it would be about an 8-9 million dollar cap hit in dead money. I wouldn't call Reed a declining player at this point, as some of those stats have trended positive over the last 3 years (completion percentage against). But I think this illustrates how Hobbs is a risky signing, a signing probably only made because Gutekunst sees him as an ascending player. Frankly, Hobbs was well below average prior to 2024 and his big jump in 2024 kind of sits him right about at average. IMO Packer fans have good reason to be disappointed by what happened in free agency this off-season.

"Urgency" is just trendy GM-speak. Just like 100% of NFL coaches will say "aggressive," and then 95% of them will play ridiculous prevent defenses when up by 9 points with 9 minutes left to play in the game.

Wait, I thought Nightengale had no credibility? Nice little story, but I don't see it happening. Attanasio has been out of lawyering for too long, and basically the job is now just to serve as the owner's top lawyer. Look at the write-up of MLB's current deputy commissioner. Does anyone think this guy won't get the job? https://www.mlb.com/official-information/about-mlb/executives/dan-halem

I wouldn't be interested in trading up for any player in this draft. Maybe Will Johnson if he checks out medically and he proves to be sub-4.45 (but if that happens, he probably shoots back up into the top 12 picks, putting him out of reach). I like McMillan and think he will be a good NFL player, but most reports from the pro day indicate he ran the 40 in about 4.55 seconds (I've seen some reports having him at 4.48...majority had him at roughly 4.55). That doesn't concern me at all, but it isn't good enough that it would motivate me to give up multiple picks for him. I think each of the top 4 WRs (not counting Hunter) - Golden, McMillan, Burden, Egbuka - all would be worth the #23 pick and I wouldn't mind seeing Green Bay end up with any of them, but I would not trade up. I haven't seen one mention of Emmanwori possibly being used as a linebacker. Even though he has strong safety dimensions, I'm thinking he's best as a deep centerfield free safety that can use his speed to cover a ton of ground and dissuade the opposition from throwing a bunch of deep balls. But could a team use him as a safety-in-name-only, but actually a linebacker who lines up over the tight end and try him as a tight-end-eraser? He does seem to have that skill set. Personally, at #23, I like Emmanwori as a top trade down candidate. I could see the Eagles, Jaguars, Jets and maybe even the Ravens all maybe willing to move up to pick him. A few weeks ago it seemed like trade down opportunities probably wouldn't be there. Emmanwori is a pretty good candidate, If Gutekunst doesn't want to go WR in round one, and if Burden or Egbuka make it to #23, that would be a pretty good candidate for a trade down. Classifying Jalon Walker as an EDGE, that makes Jihaad Campbell the top linebacker and there appears to be a pretty good gap between him and the next one (probably Carson Schwesinger), if there is a team that wants him they probably have to get ahead of the Rams at #26. I would currently list the Packers draft priorities as follows (in no particular order within a tier)- 1st tier = CB, DE, WR 2nd tier = DT, LT, TE 3rd tier = C, CB, LB, WR If the plan is to have Alexander back in 2025, then cross the 3rd tier CB need off the list. If Morgan is still viewed as the starting left tackle in 2026, then remove LT from the 2nd tier and put OT as a 3rd tier need. I think Jenkins is a potential candidate to not be extended with Banks getting the big money, so that's why center is on the 3rd tier list. I've just elevated TE from 3rd tier to 2nd tier after reading how much LeFleur used multiple tight end sets in 2023 and how his offense was compromised by the tight end situation in 2024, Musgrave just has too much of an injury history to ignore, and without him they have hardly anything at the position after Kraft. The reason I post that is there are 10 spots that need to be filled. I think they need to pick at least 8 players in this draft. If they trade up early, I think they will pretty much need to trade down later to regain some picks.

So does the SEC now own men's basketball too? I don't watch basketball at all, just couldn't help but notice that 4 of the remaining 8 are SEC programs.

Notre Dame pro day seemed to be a big bunch of nothing. CB-Benjamin Morrison did 17 reps on the bench and nothing else. DL-Rylie Mills did nothing after doing nothing at the combine. I think he's an interesting 6th/7th round candidate that could play inside or out and maybe turn into a decent depth player. TE-Mitchell Evans did everything after doing everything at the combine and the results were a bit better across the board. I saw some reports saying he looked pretty good when doing the drills and catching the ball. He might be a guy to look at once they get to round 5. LB-Jack Kiser showed up at 229 pounds and ran the 40 in 4.62, which was much better than expected. Opinions are all over the board on him.

Quick, one-round mock draft. No trades. I used this for the primary tool to determine need areas - https://www.nfl.com/news/2025-nfl-draft-order-for-round-1-top-five-needs-for-all-32-teams-following-free-agency-frenzy . Barron makes it to #23 in this one- 1. Titans – Cameron Ward/QB/Miami, Fl 2. Browns – Andre Carter/EDGE/Penn State 3. Giants – Travis Hunter/CB-WR/Colorado 4. Patriots – Armand Membou/OT/Missouri 5. Jaguars – Mason Graham/DL/Michigan 6. Raiders- Ashton Jeanty/RB/Boise State 7. Jets – Tyler Warren/TE/Penn State 8. Panthers – Jalon Walker/EDGE/Georgia 9. Saints – Will Campbell/OT/Louisiana State 10. Bears – Mykel Williams/EDGE/Georgia 11. 49ers – Walter Nolan/DL/Mississippi 12. Cowboys – Matthew Golden/WR/Texas 13. Dolphins – Josh Simmons/OT/Ohio State 14. Colts – Colston Loveland/TE/Michigan 15. Falcons – Mike Green/EDGE/Marshall 16. Cardinals – Tetairoa McMillan/WR/Arizona 17. Bengals – Shemar Stewart/EDGE/Texas A&M 18. Seahawks – Luther Burden III/WR/Missouri 19. Buccaneers – Will Johnson/CB/Michigan 20. Broncos – Emeka Egbuka/WR/Ohio State 21. Steelers – Shedeur Sanders/QB/Colorado 22. Chargers – Derrick Harmon/DL/Oregon 23. Packers – Jahdae Barron/CB/Texas 24. Vikings – Nick Emmanwori/S/South Carolina 25. Texans – Kelvin Banks Jr./OT/Texas 26. Rams – Jihaad Campbell/LB/Alabama 27. Ravens – Malaki Starks/S/Georgia 28. Lions – Nic Scourton/EDGE/Texas A&M 29. Redskins – Maxwell Hairston/CB/Kentucky 30. Bills – Kenneth Grant/DL/Michigan 31. Chiefs – Josh Conerly Jr/OT/Oregon 32. Eagles – Donovan Ezeirruaku/EDGE/Boston College

Johnson is definitely slipping. First it was he couldn't run because of the turf toe injury, now he can't run because he has a hamstring problem. Now I think people are questioning if he's really a 4.4 guy. If you are a cornerback who runs a 4.55 40, you are probably not a top 10 pick. Putting that injury cloud thing over your head doesn't help things. Lots draftnik boards around the internet has Alexander in the 40's. The board I put together from "high profile" sources (meaning that these guys are in a position to get feedback/input from NFL people) currently has Alexander at #86. Note that a still have a couple lists in there that are pre-combine, so I would expect him to be a bit higher than that. But I still think once the lists all get updated, he would probably be sitting around #75. I think it will take some extraordinary circumstances for the Packers to take Simmons. I don't see Gutekunst going left tackle two years in a row. Either Morgan would have had to thoroughly convince the Packers that he cannot play left tackle, or #23 would have to be so cleaned out of other need positions where Gutekunst just goes best player available. And as of now, I think Simmons goes ahead of Banks, which would put him in the top 20 picks. I wouldn't take Thornton. I would always gravitate towards wide receivers that were productive in college, and Thornton just didn't do enough.

My list is pretty close to that- Shemar Stewart (I think he'll be off the board) Jahdae Barron (I think he'll be off the board) Maxwell Hairston Shavon Revel Jr Landon Jackson

Revel only was measured and did 12 reps of 225 at East Carolina's pro day. He did not do anything else, still recovering from the torn ACL.

I'll keep my projection the same until I see credible evidence that suggests otherwise. I'll still project Hairston to be the Packer's first round pick (if they go cornerback first). Credible evidence does not even need to be directly related to Hairston. For example, if Benjamin Morrison runs a 4.38 40-yard dash during the Notre Dame pro day, then I would change my projection and guess that the Packers draft Benjamin Morrison in round one (if they go cornerback first). I'll wait until a civil suit is filed (likely about 7 days ahead of the draft for maximum effect) before I'd give something like this any consideration. Sorry, a post on Reddit with sketchy at best information is not something that I take seriously. If the TikTok "report" is the same as what I've seen, it is not an official report, just a screenshot saying a sexual assault was reported on such and such date without any corroborating statement or even a name. We will see what the national media has to say when the civil suit is filed.

The Packers have a pretty large amount of cap space left for this year if Alexander is off the roster, which I think is still pretty likely. If anything, I think if a trade cannot be made for Alexander prior to the draft, that Gutekunst will release him and not put a post-June 1st designation on him. If so, the Packers would still have about 35.6 million in cap space and that would be after paying the rookies. As currently stands, that would be the ninth highest amount of cap space in the league, so they have plenty or room. Just to put some numbers in, if Alexander is released or traded prior to June 1, and Tom is given this type of extension- EXTENSION #1 = RT-Zach Tom. 5 years, 110 million, 42 million guaranteed. 30 million signing bonus, and between base salary + bonuses the yearly earnings are 4 million in 2025, 10.5 in 2026, 15.5 in 2027, 21.5 in 2028 and 28.5 in 2029. Cap numbers break down as 10.126 million in 2025, 16.5 million in 2026, 21.5 million in 2027, 27.5 million in 2028 and 34.5 million in 2029. If those two things happen, the Packers still have about 28.9 million dollars in cap space for 2025 and that is after paying the incoming rookie class. Overthecap calculates the 2026 cap room to be about 36.5 million if the above happens. Assuming the Packers are dealing with about the same rookie pool in 2026 as they are in 2025, count about 10 million for the rookie pool and about another 10 million to complete the roster. That knocks them down to about 16.5 million, which seems like a really concerning number. However, just doing full restructures on the Gary contract and the Clark contract, and I estimate that the 16.5 million in cap space then becomes 35.7 million in cap space. That does not even look at the Jenkins contract (Jenkins will be in the last year of his deal, releasing him would create an additional 20 million in cap space, giving him a new contract would likely create at least 10 million in cap space, and as a last resort, they could just add a couple void years onto the current deal to knock off 4 or 5 million from the 2026 cap). In addition, McKinney has 13+ million and Jacobs has 11+ million in new money coming due in 2026, more options available to reduce the cap. I don't think they need to go that far, just redoing the Gary and Clark contracts should create enough cap space to get everything done.

Azareye'h Thomas posted a 40 in the 4.50-4.55 range during the Florida State Pro Day. It took a considerable amount of time to dig this up as the media has been a complete failure at providing useful pro day information. https://steelersnow.com/former-steelers-player-works-out-flordia-state-cb-at-pro-day/ I thought Thomas might emerge as a serious candidate for the Packers at #23, but I don't think that 40-time gets it done. Still need to see if I can find any numbers on Shavon Revel (East Carolina Pro Day is today) and Benjamin Morris (Notre Dame Pro Day is March 27). If the Packers go CB in round one, I would still project Maxwell Hairston to be the pick.

I pretty much agree. Pearce was 245 at the combine and likely played at a few pounds less than that. He definitely is a better fit as a 3-4 OLB and I really question if he's big-bodied enough to butt heads with NFL offensive tackles every down. I don't see him as a great fit for the Packers, especially with all of the character stuff floating around- https://www.sportskeeda.com/college-football/news-he-actually-crazy-james-pearce-jr-s-high-school-teammate-vouches-anger-issues-ahead-nfl-draft He had a very good performance at the combine and, best that I can tell, his stock has dipped a bit. He was #11 on the pre-combine board that I compiled from the reporters, and currently he is down to #16. At this point, I would slot him behind the other guys who seem to fit best as 3-4 OLB...Jalon Walker, Mike Green, Donovan Ezieruaku. Ezieruaku is a guy I think a lot of people have overlooked. Lots of talk about Green's sack numbers, but Ezieruaku posted 16.5 last year and he did it in the ACC. He didn't do the 40 at the combine, but he did do the 20 yard shuttle (4.19) and 3-cone (6.94) and posted plus-plus-numbers in both. Even if he's considered a big linebacker (248 pounds), the 20-yard shuttle and 3-cone were the top numbers in the edge group and also in the linebacker group.

I will also say that the national media's coverage of the Pro Days has been nothing short of abysmal this year. Worse than it was 20 years ago. Finding any results is nearly impossible. I don't know if they are only running positional drills at these workouts, or if most prospects are just refusing to do the "standard tests," or if for some reason the NFL has cracked down and doesn't want this information out. All I can find on the Oregon Pro Day is that Tez Johnson did not run the 40 (which was surprising as his 40 was slower than expected in Indianapolis) and that Jabbar Muhammad's vertical was 2 inches better than it was in Indianapolis.

Lots of Ducks make sense for the Packers. If all the top DEs and WRs are off the board at #23, which could happen...then the first round pick likely comes down to CB or DT and Derrick Harmon is a candidate at #23. If the Packers do not go defensive end in round one, Jordan Burch could be the top candidate with the second round pick. Tight end Terrance Ferguson is on the rise (up to #108 in my compilation of top prospect lists) and is a strong candidate for the Packers third round pick. I still think there is a pretty strong chance the Packers take a tight end higher than anticipated. Right tackle Ajani Cornelius could be a later round sleeper candidate. He would likely kick inside to guard and compete there. How he works out could make or break him, as he did nothing in Indianapolis. And I'll throw this out there. I've done some mocks where the guy who seemed to make the most sense with the first round pick was left tackle Josh Conerly. I don't think there is any chance that Gutekunst goes left tackle in round one in back-to-back drafts. But, if Morgan has given the Packers the impression that he is not a future starting left tackle, and Walker's free agency is right around the corner...maybe it wouldn't be so surprising after all.

Hardman, another guy who always seem to be hurt.

I would not pick Biggers. There are other late round, likely undrafted DTs that I have more interest in, my favorite being Nebraska's Nash Hutmacher. Biggers is one of those seventh rounders you pick and then hope to get him through to the practice squad, where you have a year to work with his athletic ability. He's the type of seventh round gamble you take when you have 11 or 12 picks...which the Packers do not.

There are reports that Hendrickson is shooting for Myles Garrett money...4 years, 160 million dollars...and doesn't appear to be budging much. If he is stuck on, let's say 150 million at a minimum (pure speculation), that is too rich for my blood. We are probably looking at a 4 year deal with a void year added right from the get go. 60 million signing bonus. Yearly cap numbers would be something like 14 million in 2025, 32 million in 2026, 41.5 million in 2027, 50.5 million in 2028 and then 12 million in the void year in 2029. If something happened (injury, declining performance) and it was determined it was best to part ways after 2027, that would be 36 million in dead money....same situation but after 2028, 24 million in dead money. I'm used to the idea that business in the NFL is just going to result in yearly dead money hits of 15, 20, 25 million per season...but potentially having one guy with that type of dead money hit is pretty ugly to think about.

The thing that Amari Cooper brings is more of a down-the-field type threat. Last year was not a good year, Cleveland turned out to be more than it's usual disaster and then he got traded mid-season and there is that adjustment period when going to a new team. He was also battling a wrist injury during his time in Buffalo. But in 2023 Cooper averaged 17.4 yards per catch. In 2022 Cooper averaged 14.9 yards per catch. Total over the last three years, 15.2 yards per catch. I don't think we'll see near that from Kupp or Allen. Cooper is also a very good locker room guy. His mentorship of CeeDee Lamb while in Dallas is pretty well known.

Amari Cooper and Dante Fowler are the only two remaining free agents that I would have any interest in at all. I wouldn't be interested in giving Cooper a contract that includes 3 seasons with 35 million dollar cap numbers, but would still be willing to throw pretty significant money at him. Fowler...only would be interested in a 1 year deal for modest money. He had 10.5 sacks last year but is a wildly inconsistent player. Probably only a pass-rush specialist for Green Bay. I think he's a better fit as a 3-4 OLB. There is a reason he's been with 5 teams in 9 seasons. Alot to dislike, but he has shown that he can get after the passer and that's a big need right now. Worth a gamble at a reasonable price.