JosephC

McCalvy's full article regarding the trade is up at the Brewer's website, and his wording has changed regardng the money part of the deal. The article says, "The Brewers also sent cash to the White Sox to help offset the difference of salaries." Including the word "help" leads me to believe the cash + salary swap in this deal was not equal and the Brewers did end up saving some money.

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but McCalvy is reporting that the Brewers do not plan on playing Vaughn in the outfield and the cash offsets the salary difference. So the Brewers do not save any money in this deal. The move does give the feeling that the Brewers are planning on dealing Hoskins and they don't think Martinez is ready for his shot (or maybe don't think Martinez is a MLB player). And, of course, so far in June, Hoskins = .135/.175/.216/.391 and has probably undone much of the value he built up earlier in the season. Hard to see the Brewers getting any significant return for him considering the money he is making

I think it's like markedman5 said - "We could have traded him for a low rated prospect ( who likely would never see the majors) and thrown in even more money." 28 other major league teams either told the Brewers they had no use for Civale or they would give them a 28 year old organizational filler prospect who is currently in A+ ball, but only if the Brewers also sent them the approximate 5 million dollars to cover the rest of the Civale's contract. The White Sox front office was looking at the remaining 3.65 million they are paying Vaughn for the rest of this season and vomiting at the thought. So when the Brewers called, the White Sox maybe said give up Civale and 1 million to make it a bit more even money wise. So instead of the Brewers having Civale and being on the hook for 5 million dollars...they now have Vaughn and his 3.65 million and gave away the million...but the 4.65 million total still saves them 350k. Attanasio gets a few free steak dinners out of the deal. If the Brewers did kick in the full difference between salaries...I'm definitely not going to say it was a bad deal because Civale has no value for them unless injuries would have forced him back into the rotation...but there just doesn't seem like there is any benefit because fixing Vaughn to the extent that they would be happy to pay him 5-6 million next year seems really remote.

Vaughn would have to hit the cover off the ball late this season to even be considered a replacement for someone in 2026. 5.85 million in arbitration last year. If he comes up and posts even a pretty decent .750 OPS, odds are still pretty overwhelming that he would be not be offered arbiration. Talks about options left is pretty meaningless IMO. The Brewers will not be paying him 5+ million in 2026 to ship him back and forth between MLB and AAA. Either he mashes after getting called up later this year, gets paid for 2026 and is in the starting lineup, or he doesn't do anything the rest of this year and is non-tendered.

I think people are whining because Civale, as unimpressive as he is, is still likely considered a legitimate, back-of-the-rotation starter for a "B-division" major league team. Vaughn has played 4+ MLB seasons and has been a -0.4 bWAR player and -1.8 fWAR player. He can't play anywhere in the field. Lifetime -12 DRS at 1B, -10 DRS in LF, -6 DRS in RF. Somehow, despite being a sub-replacement level player, he is earning 5.85 million this season through arbitration.

Brewers getting a modest amount of cash probably wouldn't be that bad of a return...largely because it means the White Sox are picking up all of his remaining salary. Civale is probably seen as about a 1 WAR pitcher, and that is pretty reasonable. The White Sox are getting 5/8ths of a season of a 1 WAR player who has an 8 million dollar salary. Anything more than an organizational filler type player in return would be pretty surprising.

Over the last two years, the Packers have a 10-4 record when Alexander plays, and a 10-10 record when he does not play. Completion percentage against is 64% with him, 68% without him. Passer rating allowed is 85.5 with him, 95.4 without him. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/packers-release-jaire-alexander-how-green-bay-will-replace-all-pro-cornerback-why-secondary-should-be-fine/

It sucks that we'll never know what the Packers re-structured offer was, so we'll never be able to make the comparison to see if Alexander made the right choice or not. Hard to believe Alexander will get anything other than a 1 year deal. Even if a team did throw out a two-year offer, it would likely come with a modest signing bonus and maybe a base salary of something like 16 million in 2026 (that a team could walk away from after this season). Even from Alexander's perspective, it makes more sense just to do a 1 year deal, do everything to get on the field for 15-17 games, and then next off-season he could be in line for something like a 3 year, 54 million dollar deal with nearly half of that guaranteed. A one-year deal just makes sense for everybody.

I'm looking through the list and Stephon Gilmore appears to be, by far, the best free agent option out there. I don't think he's signed yet. An internet search pops up a total piece-of-crap headline indicating he's signed with Kansas City, but it is nothing more than click-bait...going into the article and it's just speculation that he could sign with the Chiefs. He's old and one of these years he's going to come back and just be too slow to play. That could happen this year, or it could happen in 2026 or it could happen in 2027. He's only missed 3 games total in the last 3 years. PFF has last year's coverage grade as 118/222 cornerbacks, so below average, but his yards/target was 7.1 and QB rating against was 94.1. Everything you look at indicates he is either average or just below average. You won't find anything much better at this point in free agency. He plays outside and fits the bill for what the Packers need. Other free agent CB options are Asante Samuel Jr who only played in 4 games last year and has a horrible reputation of NOT playing the run. Rasul Douglas who couldn't afford to lose a step...and has lost that step. Kendall Fuller who had two concussions last year and ended the season on IR with a knee injury. Mike Hilton who is considered a slot-only cornerback. Gilmore seems to be the only guy left in free agency. That said, I think Gutekunst is done and what the Packers have now is what they will enter the pre-season games with. I think it's a big mistake, but time will tell.

I suppose that Jalen Ramsey can enter the conversation now. I'm not for it as it just seems to add a problem right after subtracting a problem. But there is no question that Ramsey can still play, is likely better than a healthy Alexander and has averaged 14.67 games played over the last 3 years (missed 7 games in 2023, started all 17 games in 2024). Overthecap has Ramsey's cap number at 16.661 million, but the Dolphins are on the hook for the pro-rated part of his signing bonus and have already paid his roster bonus, so the new team would only pay him 5.816 million this year and not be on the hook for any money past this season. So at a salary cap figure of less than 6 million, even a Ramsey detractor (like me) cannot find any fault with the money aspect. Gutekunst likely held onto Alexander this long thinking he could actually get something for him on the trade market, which wasn't the smartest thing considering his contract and the missed playing time. No doubt the Dolphins would probably start by asking for something like a third and fourth round pick for Ramsey. When all is said and done I think the max they get out of him is a fifth but it's probably just as likely they either get a sixth OR they end up taking a pick swap...something like getting a 5th in 2026 and then giving back a 7th in 2027. One thing that helps is that it sound like the most interested party in Ramsey was the Rams, and the national media (who admittedly, has been wrong about just about everything this off-season) is now talking about the Rams being the likely landing spot for Alexander. So if there was any competition to get Ramsey, having Alexander out there probably removes one team from that list. Again, I'm not in favor of Ramsey, but if a Ramsey fan would argue that you bring him in and deal with the attitude for one year...at the price-tag of under 6 million and either give up something like a 6th round pick, I don't think I could argue that it's a bad move.

Packers are 46 million under the cap. It's surprising that Gutekunst did not do more to strengthen the cornerback spot considering this was always the most likely outcome, since it was no secret that Alexander was unwilling to take a paycut and preferred to be released, while the Packers were unwilling to bring him back with his current contract. They have Nixon, no problem there, Valentine, who did not play well last year, Hobbs who has one "average" season under his belt and three "sub-par/bad" seasons, and a bunch of practice squad players after that. Pro Football Reference has Bullard as allowing 8.5 yards per attempt and a QB rating of 120.6, he's a safety and not a slot corner.

And even an modest deal like the Hoskins deal is looking like a bad investment for the Brewers. 34 million guaranteed / 8 million per WAR = 4.25. Brewers need to get 4.25 WAR out of Hoskins over the two years for the deal to be worth it at the market rate. So far Hoskins has totaled 1.1 fWAR and 0.8 bWAR during his time in Milwaukee. And 8 million is the market rate, considering the Brewers payroll ranks 24th in MLB. Quick math from Cot's...league average payroll is 172.32 million and the Brewers are at 110.5 million, roughly 64% of the league average. Estimates in the past have indicated that the Brewers are looking to get 1 WAR for every 5.25 million invested, and that pretty much matches up with the numbers. Brewers were probably hoping for about 6 WAR out of Hoskins when they signed that deal, and through 1 1/3 season he is only at 0.95 bWAR/fWAR.

Can we start up the Romeo Doubs to Pittsburgh rumors again? Rodgers and Doubs played together in 2022.

Biggest % jump on ESPN, and ESPN dumped them. Something not adding up here.

The Diamondbacks were pretty foolish to make that move. Leave the big money pitchers to the Dodgers and Yankees, they can afford it if things go south. So Burnes "possible" 2 years, 70 million dollar deal is now pretty much guaranteed to be the full 6 years, 210 million. Tommy John means he could be back pitching mid-2026, but with as cautious as teams are these days, I'd say better than 50/50 chance he misses all of next year if surgery is needed. If that happens, the Diamondbacks paid 210 million for 4 1/3 years of performance. If you put 1 WAR = 8 million....210/8 = 26.25 WAR/6 seasons = 4.375 WAR per season. That's the mark he'd have to hit to be worth the contract. 2022 = 4.45 bWAR/fWAR, 2023 = 3.45 bWAR/fWAR, 2024 = 3.6 bWAR/fWAR. The way he was trending, it would have been hard to hit the 4.375 WAR per season mark and that is if he was fully healthy that entire time.

Graham Glasgow is also taking snaps at center and has plenty of NFL experience at that position. Either he or Ratledge is a step down, but I don't think this will be a major problem for the Lions. Between Glasgow, Ratledge, Christian Mahogany and 5th round pick Miles Frazier, they still look pretty solid in the interior offensive line.

Brewers offensive production out of third base has been pitiful. I had previously talked about a potential deal as sellers with Hoskins as returning 3B-Williamson from the Mariners. I also talked about not necessarily being a fan of that as the Brewers have multiple 3B candidates in the pipeline, so picking up Williamson is not an ideal fit as he would have 5+ years of control at a position where the Brewers already have future candidates. Who would be a nice, cheap half-year rental? https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes Take out big-money Bergman and Muncy (club option), and then it's pretty easy to cross off Eugenio Saurez since he plays for Arizona, they were at .500 when I made the post regarding Urias (have lost 2 games since) and are probably not going to be jumping into seller mode that quick considering their off-season acquisition (Burnes)...and the list became a very short list pretty quick. Redd already posted the wRC+ numbers, but to just put some even simpler numbers on it. MLB.com has Brewer third baseman at = .176/.242/.262/.504 Urias in 2025 = .248/.336/.419/.754 Urias being a former Brewer has nothing to do with how I came up with him as a candidate. And if Urias' bat reverts to 2023 and 2024 when he hit just about nothing (his .193/.324/.336/.660 in 2023+2024 is still significantly better than what Brewer 3B have done so far this year), you are only out the 1 fringe prospect that it would likely cost to obtain him.

Reports from yesterday (The Athletic) are that the Packers just made a restructured deal offer to Alexander. June 1st is a big date, maybe this will finally be resolved (one way or the other) in the next couple of days.

If the Brewers become buyers, I see a reunion with Luis Urias as a pretty reasonable type acquisition. Urias is batting .252/.338/.423/.761 this season and is on pace for a 2.1 bWAR or 1.5 fWAR season. He's mostly played 2B/SS this year, but still has played the most MLB innings at 3B and is a career +10 DRS as a third baseman. He is a free agent after this season and that minor league team in Sacramento will almost certainly be open to dealing him. His salary for the season is only 1.1 million, along with performance bonuses of 150K for reaching plate appearance milestones (200, 300, 350, 400, 500), so he is on pace to make 1.7 million. He did next to nothing in 2023 and 2024 which should keep the price-tag very reasonable.

I went over to the Baseball Trade Values site yesterday for the first time in probably a year. Somebody had posted a proposed swap of Rhys Hoskins and 3B-Ben Williamson. I think that would be the type of return that Brewer fans could expect if Hoskins is traded. Williamson is seeing his first MLB action this year and has been terrible offensively. He doesn't project to be a power hitter so he will never likely post impressive slugging percentages, but he could turn out to be a good OBP guy that projects to be a plus-plus defender at third base. Personally I'm not for the trade as I see a bunch of 3B candidates in the Brewers system that aren't that far away, but this would not be a crazy swap.

I don't see the Brewers offering any player a qualifying offer. I'm not an arbitration specialist, but it looks like the Brewers would already be in the 80 millions when looking at salaries plus buyouts, and last year the qualifying offer was 21.05 million. If they offered Hoskins or Woodruff that, there is a reasonable enough chance they would accept, and based on the recent spending habits of Attanasio, the Brewers might not be left with any money for free agents. Just looking at the math of what to expect as a return for players in their last contract year. Anyone trading for Hoskins would probably be looking to get 1 WAR out of him over the final two months of a season. Over the last 2 1/3 seasons (throwing out the year missed due to injury) he's been roughly a 2 bWAR/fWAR player, if you just ignore last year, he's roughly a 3 WAR player, so expecting 1 WAR over 1/3 a season is completely reasonable. 1 WAR = 8 million in value. His contract for this year is 18 million, 1/3 of the season is 6 million (Milwaukee is stuck with the mutual option buyout). 8 million - 6 million = 2 million of surplus value. I doubt if that even gives them a prospect in the top 20 of some team's prospect list. Quintana's fWAR makes him look like a really mediocre pitcher, his bWAR makes him look like a #2 starter. If you take the average, he's been a 1.7 bWAR/fWAR player over the last 2 1/3 seasons, so the "unbiased" expectation over the last 2 months of the season would be 0.6 WAR. 0.6 * 8 million = 4.8 million in value. 1/3 of his salary would only be 0.67 million, so there is 4.13 million in surplus value there. If the Brewers push his mutual option buyout on the other team, that drops the surplus value to 2.13 million which is about the same as Hoskins. More than likely the Brewers eat that buyout and Quintana could return a prospect somewhere in the range of #16-#25 from a teams prospect list...or they could maybe opt for a couple fringe prospects instead (say a lottery ticket and an organizational filler player). I'd actually put Civale as having negative value right now. Luckily his best year, 2023, still figures into the mix. But pro-rating this year out and then taking the average of the last 3 years, he's roughly a 0.9 WAR/year player. So that's 0.3 WAR over 2 months = 2.4 million in value. Salary is 8 million so 1/3 of that number is 2.67 million, resulting of a surplus value of -0.27 million. I don't even see them getting a lottery ticket for him. If a trade would happen, the opposing team would have to be desperate and the return to Milwaukee would probably be the definition of organizational filler (think a 27 year old that is pitching in high A that has about a 0.01% chance of pitching in the majors). The only two players the Brewers may be interesting in dealing that would actually bring back a notable return are Peralta and Contreras. Other than that, if I'm sitting in the opposing GM chair, I don't see a whole lot to get excited about.

It would be pretty hard to convince me that this injury was career ending after he was playing again later in the year. Reports are that it was a non-displaced patella fracture and a laceration. Generally those are not career ending. He was a -1.7 bWAR player the year before this happened and was a -0.2 bWAR player the year this happened and next year would have been his age 37 season. He showed that he could no longer play the outfield in 2022 which left him as a 1B/DH that has a slash line of .206/.310/.332/.642 over his last two seasons of MLB at-bats. Oh, and by the way, he really was only a 1B/DH option against left-handed pitching because he never hit right handed pitching that well (.215/.299/.362/.661 career against RHP). This has all the makings of him suing the Reds for X million dollars. Then his lawyer and the Reds lawyers get together and his lawyer almost immediately agrees to a settlement that's about 20% of X. Then the lawyer takes a pretty big chunk out of that X.

Warning! Graphic Footage!

I didn't mind the move. I think it was about time for the Jaguars to try something big. Lawrence was supposed to fix that franchise and he has not. I thought Hunter was the best player in the draft and was a reasonable candidate to make the big move. The Jaguars were in a position to do this. After the trade, they ended up without a second round pick, but still ended up with two third round picks and two fourth round picks. In total, they ended up picking 9 players in this draft, and 5 of them were within the first 107 picks. Next year they will be without a first but they still will have a bunch of picks. Tankathon have them with 11 picks currently, no first but 3 third rounders and 7 picks in the first 5 rounds. While I didn't mind the trade, I'm not so hot on the players they ended up with. Ransaw and Tuten are plus-plus athletes but have questionable "football profiles." Milum seemed too slow and heavy footed to ever survive at tackle, but sounds like they are sticking him at guard and he might be a pretty good player inside. Kiser is a pretty good linebacker who worked out better than expected, I could see him as being a solid, steady type player that may not grab headlines but gets the job done. The later round picks didn't do anything for me. It was surprising to see that they didn't take any defensive linemen, because that seemed to be a need area, especially when picking 2 linebackers and 2 running backs. Even though Cleveland should have been the real beneficiaries of this move, I like what Jacksonville ended up with much more than what Cleveland ended up with. I could swear, that while messing around with mock draft simulators back in February, that the Browns were up to 12 picks. So they make this move down which should result in even more picks, so they can fill holes all over the field because almost every position was considered a need area. They also needed bodies all over to make up for all the cap space wasted on the pitiful Deshaun Watson contract. And when all is said and done, the Browns ended up getting 7 players out of this draft. And of those 7 players, 2 quarterbacks and 2 running backs. What the hell? But when you trade a pick for Kenny Pickett, then draft Dillon Gabriel, then use two more picks to trade up and draft Sanders...that's 4 picks right there on just quarterbacks.

The chain of custody was never broken. A chain of custody is only a record of who had it and where it was from collection to testing. If it sits in a guy's refrigerator over the weekend, and the guy has it documented that it sat in his refrigerator over the weekend, then the chain of custody is intact. The technicality was a violation of MLB's protocol, which wasn't a violation of the protocol of the collection agency. MLB's protocol indicated the sample must be shipped immediately, the collection agency's protocol indicated it could be held over the weekend if stored properly. It was MLB's responsibility to verify that their protocol matched the protocol of the collection agency, and instruct the collection agency to change their policy, which MLB failed to do. MLB admitted this was their oversight and the collection agency or the sample collector were not at fault. There was no "second one." When he was suspended, it was the result of the Biogenesis investigation, where the documents uncovered in 2013 linked him to his PED usage in 2011.