JosephC

Acuna has had one monster season, a 9.1 fWAR effort in 2023. He's never hit 5 fWAR in any other season, although he was very close in 2019 (4.9 fWAR). He has missed half-a-season-plus in 2020, 2021, 2024 and has appeared in less than half the games this year (40 games). He would be on a near 8 WAR pace this year if he had played in 95% of the games, but missed games matter, and he now has a long history of missing games. Pro-rate this year (90 games played by the Braves so far) to a full season, and Acuna's average bWAR/fWAR for 2025 would be 3.5. In 2023 (the huge year) his average WAR was 8.75. In 2024 it was just 0.5 WAR due to all the missed games. I'd put a fair number at him moving forward of 4.25 WAR per season. It's the average of what he has done from 2023-2025. That number could be up around 8 if he was playing full seasons, but that is unlikely as he will only have achieved that once in the last five years. That would put his WAR totals over the next 3 plus seasons at 1.9 (remainder of this year) + 4.25 + 4.25 + 4.25 = 14.65 WAR over the remainder of his contract. 14.65 * 8 million per WAR = 117.2 million in value. Salaries are 7.55 (remainder of this year) + 17 + 17 + 17 = 58.55 million. 117.2 - 58.55 million = 58.65 million in surplus value. Sal Frelick entered this season with 1 year and 72 days of service time. Add in the time this year, and I would guess he is somewhere just short of 2 full seasons of service time. Let's just say 2 years on the nose, it should be really close to that. He's at 291 games played, divide that by 2 and it's 145.5 games which would be 90% of a full season...so I think using 2 years of service time is completely fair. So far Frelick has totaled 5.3 bWAR and 5.1 fWAR. So an average of 5.2 bWAR/fWAR / 2 seasons = 2.6 WAR per season. He has 4 years of team control after this one and is only 25 years old, so there is no reason to predict any sort of decline. So 1.15 WAR (remainder of this year) + 2.6 + 2.6 + 2.6 + 2.6 = 11.55 WAR * 8 million per WAR = 92.4 million in value. Frelick won't be a super two guy as he only had the extra 72 days over one year of service time...so he's very cheap next year and then has 3 arbitration years after that. He's not a big home run hitter, likely won't be perceived as a "big run producer," so his arbitration numbers should fall on the more reasonable end of the spectrum. I'd guess salaries something like 345k (remainder of this year) + 1.0 million + 4.25 + 6.75 + 9.75 (complete guesses as I am not an arbitration expert) = 22.1 million dollars. 92.4 million - 22.1 million = 70.3 million. So using a completely unbiased method based on what these guys have done in the majors recently...Acuna has an estimated surplus value of 58.65 million and Frelick's estimate is 70.3 million. Personally, I believe that the number on Acuna is probably how the majority of MLB front offices view Acuna. Maybe slightly higher, but with all the missed games, I think optimistic teams would probably put the number around 70 million and less optimistic teams would have the number around 55 million. Frelick, probably much less despite all hard evidence showing what his true value is. I'm guessing the majority of MLB front offices would put his number in the 30-35 million range. However, not only would the raw numbers dissuade me from making ESPN's proposed trade, I would have a hard time dealing Frelick straight up for Acuna. As the Dodgers GM, where money is not an issue, I'd make the trade and take the extra 1.5 WAR per season with the upside that Acuna stays healthy and returns an even higher number of WAR. Pretty easy for the Dodgers/Mets/Yankees to make this trade. But when you are the Brewers, and money is a huge issue, the cheaper player controlled for an extra year that is worth 2.6 WAR per season has real value. And when it comes to the bottom line, a pretty unbiased surplus value calculation using Acuna's last 2+ seasons (which included his big year) and Frelick's 2 MLB seasons completely justifies the idea of not making a straight up Acuna for Frelick trade.

I can't see the article because it's behind a paywall, but it looks like there is a report in The Athletic that ESPN is now talking with MLB about a new TV deal.

I don't know crap about this, but that won't stop me from looking at the Pipeline and guessing. As of today- 20 - OF - Mason Neville 32 - SS/OF - Tate Southisene 59 - RHP - Matthew Fisher 68 - LHP - Ben Jacobs 94 - RHP - Matt Barr

Last three drafts- A college middle infielder who has no outstanding tool but is solid across the board. Signed for under-slot. An unathletic college corner infielder with masher possibilities. Signed for under-slot. Highly athletic high school outfielder. Signed for under-slot. 3 hitters, 3 under-slot.

I've been a Reynolds fan over the years, and I think there is a decent chance he might just be playing with injury and will rebound. That being said, I would not entertain any trade for him as his contract has 47 million dollars after his age 32 season. I might be willing to gamble if his deal only had two years left on it, but 5 years is just way to risky when considering the way he's started this season.

According to overthecap, Walker met playtime benchmarks and would have had a 14.751 million dollar salary for the 5th option year. So the Packers must see his worth less than that. Has there been any speculation regarding what type of deal he might get? Overthecap has the 10th highest LB contract, in terms of average per year, as Robert Spillane's 3 year, 33 million dollar deal with 62.4% of that guaranteed. Does it seem likely a new Walker deal would fall in the 3 year, 30 to 33 million dollar range with about 50-60% of that guaranteed?

Kind of surprised that Walker is being prioritized for a new deal. It seems like most of what I read about him makes him out to be a pretty average, maybe even below-average player. Many Packer fans I know have really soured on him, but I can accept that could be an over reaction to some of the really idiotic things he's done on the field. Even Gutekunst says he's "really, really high" and "bullish" on Walker. Seems like odd comments for a guy that has been in your starting lineup for the last three years.

Latest reporting is 4 million salary, 2 million in incentives, 0 dollars guaranteed.

Packers depth chart at WR is probably shaping up as follows - at least the Packers are probably hoping it shapes up this way- option 1 = Jayden Reed option 2 = Matthew Golden option 3 = Romeo Doubs option 4 = Dontayvion Hicks option 5 = Savion Williams option 6 = Mecole Hardman option 7 = Malik Heath Just throw Christian Watson's name out there as he is still part of the team, but won't be playing early in 2025 (if at all). It's possible the team keeps 7 WRs if they end up being weaker than expected at other positions, but more than likely the number to begin the season is 6 which means the guy at #8 doesn't have much of a shot of making the team. I think working out Melton at CB has more to do with the depth chart at WR than it does at CB. There is a path to the 53 through CB, there doesn't appear to be one at WR. Not to say that the Packers do not have problems at cornerback. IMO they do, in terms of starters and in terms of depth. I just hope Gutekunst doesn't have it hammered into his head that Bullard was a second round pick, he needs to be on the field so if it has to be at slot corner than so be it. Unfortunately, I think the most likely scenario is that the Packers do nothing until late in pre-season, where Gutekunst makes a last minute trade for a cornerback. Hopefully, it will be a "decent" veteran that can still play, but the team that trades him decides they simply have younger players with upside and decide to go with those guys. But, more than likely, Gutekunst will trade a late round pick for some athlete that nobody has heard of who has been around for a couple years but really hasn't made much of a impact. I brought up Steelers CB-Cory Trice Jr. previously...somebody like that.

McCalvy's full article regarding the trade is up at the Brewer's website, and his wording has changed regardng the money part of the deal. The article says, "The Brewers also sent cash to the White Sox to help offset the difference of salaries." Including the word "help" leads me to believe the cash + salary swap in this deal was not equal and the Brewers did end up saving some money.

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but McCalvy is reporting that the Brewers do not plan on playing Vaughn in the outfield and the cash offsets the salary difference. So the Brewers do not save any money in this deal. The move does give the feeling that the Brewers are planning on dealing Hoskins and they don't think Martinez is ready for his shot (or maybe don't think Martinez is a MLB player). And, of course, so far in June, Hoskins = .135/.175/.216/.391 and has probably undone much of the value he built up earlier in the season. Hard to see the Brewers getting any significant return for him considering the money he is making

I think it's like markedman5 said - "We could have traded him for a low rated prospect ( who likely would never see the majors) and thrown in even more money." 28 other major league teams either told the Brewers they had no use for Civale or they would give them a 28 year old organizational filler prospect who is currently in A+ ball, but only if the Brewers also sent them the approximate 5 million dollars to cover the rest of the Civale's contract. The White Sox front office was looking at the remaining 3.65 million they are paying Vaughn for the rest of this season and vomiting at the thought. So when the Brewers called, the White Sox maybe said give up Civale and 1 million to make it a bit more even money wise. So instead of the Brewers having Civale and being on the hook for 5 million dollars...they now have Vaughn and his 3.65 million and gave away the million...but the 4.65 million total still saves them 350k. Attanasio gets a few free steak dinners out of the deal. If the Brewers did kick in the full difference between salaries...I'm definitely not going to say it was a bad deal because Civale has no value for them unless injuries would have forced him back into the rotation...but there just doesn't seem like there is any benefit because fixing Vaughn to the extent that they would be happy to pay him 5-6 million next year seems really remote.

Vaughn would have to hit the cover off the ball late this season to even be considered a replacement for someone in 2026. 5.85 million in arbitration last year. If he comes up and posts even a pretty decent .750 OPS, odds are still pretty overwhelming that he would be not be offered arbiration. Talks about options left is pretty meaningless IMO. The Brewers will not be paying him 5+ million in 2026 to ship him back and forth between MLB and AAA. Either he mashes after getting called up later this year, gets paid for 2026 and is in the starting lineup, or he doesn't do anything the rest of this year and is non-tendered.

I think people are whining because Civale, as unimpressive as he is, is still likely considered a legitimate, back-of-the-rotation starter for a "B-division" major league team. Vaughn has played 4+ MLB seasons and has been a -0.4 bWAR player and -1.8 fWAR player. He can't play anywhere in the field. Lifetime -12 DRS at 1B, -10 DRS in LF, -6 DRS in RF. Somehow, despite being a sub-replacement level player, he is earning 5.85 million this season through arbitration.

Brewers getting a modest amount of cash probably wouldn't be that bad of a return...largely because it means the White Sox are picking up all of his remaining salary. Civale is probably seen as about a 1 WAR pitcher, and that is pretty reasonable. The White Sox are getting 5/8ths of a season of a 1 WAR player who has an 8 million dollar salary. Anything more than an organizational filler type player in return would be pretty surprising.

Over the last two years, the Packers have a 10-4 record when Alexander plays, and a 10-10 record when he does not play. Completion percentage against is 64% with him, 68% without him. Passer rating allowed is 85.5 with him, 95.4 without him. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/packers-release-jaire-alexander-how-green-bay-will-replace-all-pro-cornerback-why-secondary-should-be-fine/

It sucks that we'll never know what the Packers re-structured offer was, so we'll never be able to make the comparison to see if Alexander made the right choice or not. Hard to believe Alexander will get anything other than a 1 year deal. Even if a team did throw out a two-year offer, it would likely come with a modest signing bonus and maybe a base salary of something like 16 million in 2026 (that a team could walk away from after this season). Even from Alexander's perspective, it makes more sense just to do a 1 year deal, do everything to get on the field for 15-17 games, and then next off-season he could be in line for something like a 3 year, 54 million dollar deal with nearly half of that guaranteed. A one-year deal just makes sense for everybody.

I'm looking through the list and Stephon Gilmore appears to be, by far, the best free agent option out there. I don't think he's signed yet. An internet search pops up a total piece-of-crap headline indicating he's signed with Kansas City, but it is nothing more than click-bait...going into the article and it's just speculation that he could sign with the Chiefs. He's old and one of these years he's going to come back and just be too slow to play. That could happen this year, or it could happen in 2026 or it could happen in 2027. He's only missed 3 games total in the last 3 years. PFF has last year's coverage grade as 118/222 cornerbacks, so below average, but his yards/target was 7.1 and QB rating against was 94.1. Everything you look at indicates he is either average or just below average. You won't find anything much better at this point in free agency. He plays outside and fits the bill for what the Packers need. Other free agent CB options are Asante Samuel Jr who only played in 4 games last year and has a horrible reputation of NOT playing the run. Rasul Douglas who couldn't afford to lose a step...and has lost that step. Kendall Fuller who had two concussions last year and ended the season on IR with a knee injury. Mike Hilton who is considered a slot-only cornerback. Gilmore seems to be the only guy left in free agency. That said, I think Gutekunst is done and what the Packers have now is what they will enter the pre-season games with. I think it's a big mistake, but time will tell.

I suppose that Jalen Ramsey can enter the conversation now. I'm not for it as it just seems to add a problem right after subtracting a problem. But there is no question that Ramsey can still play, is likely better than a healthy Alexander and has averaged 14.67 games played over the last 3 years (missed 7 games in 2023, started all 17 games in 2024). Overthecap has Ramsey's cap number at 16.661 million, but the Dolphins are on the hook for the pro-rated part of his signing bonus and have already paid his roster bonus, so the new team would only pay him 5.816 million this year and not be on the hook for any money past this season. So at a salary cap figure of less than 6 million, even a Ramsey detractor (like me) cannot find any fault with the money aspect. Gutekunst likely held onto Alexander this long thinking he could actually get something for him on the trade market, which wasn't the smartest thing considering his contract and the missed playing time. No doubt the Dolphins would probably start by asking for something like a third and fourth round pick for Ramsey. When all is said and done I think the max they get out of him is a fifth but it's probably just as likely they either get a sixth OR they end up taking a pick swap...something like getting a 5th in 2026 and then giving back a 7th in 2027. One thing that helps is that it sound like the most interested party in Ramsey was the Rams, and the national media (who admittedly, has been wrong about just about everything this off-season) is now talking about the Rams being the likely landing spot for Alexander. So if there was any competition to get Ramsey, having Alexander out there probably removes one team from that list. Again, I'm not in favor of Ramsey, but if a Ramsey fan would argue that you bring him in and deal with the attitude for one year...at the price-tag of under 6 million and either give up something like a 6th round pick, I don't think I could argue that it's a bad move.

Packers are 46 million under the cap. It's surprising that Gutekunst did not do more to strengthen the cornerback spot considering this was always the most likely outcome, since it was no secret that Alexander was unwilling to take a paycut and preferred to be released, while the Packers were unwilling to bring him back with his current contract. They have Nixon, no problem there, Valentine, who did not play well last year, Hobbs who has one "average" season under his belt and three "sub-par/bad" seasons, and a bunch of practice squad players after that. Pro Football Reference has Bullard as allowing 8.5 yards per attempt and a QB rating of 120.6, he's a safety and not a slot corner.

And even an modest deal like the Hoskins deal is looking like a bad investment for the Brewers. 34 million guaranteed / 8 million per WAR = 4.25. Brewers need to get 4.25 WAR out of Hoskins over the two years for the deal to be worth it at the market rate. So far Hoskins has totaled 1.1 fWAR and 0.8 bWAR during his time in Milwaukee. And 8 million is the market rate, considering the Brewers payroll ranks 24th in MLB. Quick math from Cot's...league average payroll is 172.32 million and the Brewers are at 110.5 million, roughly 64% of the league average. Estimates in the past have indicated that the Brewers are looking to get 1 WAR for every 5.25 million invested, and that pretty much matches up with the numbers. Brewers were probably hoping for about 6 WAR out of Hoskins when they signed that deal, and through 1 1/3 season he is only at 0.95 bWAR/fWAR.

Can we start up the Romeo Doubs to Pittsburgh rumors again? Rodgers and Doubs played together in 2022.

Biggest % jump on ESPN, and ESPN dumped them. Something not adding up here.

The Diamondbacks were pretty foolish to make that move. Leave the big money pitchers to the Dodgers and Yankees, they can afford it if things go south. So Burnes "possible" 2 years, 70 million dollar deal is now pretty much guaranteed to be the full 6 years, 210 million. Tommy John means he could be back pitching mid-2026, but with as cautious as teams are these days, I'd say better than 50/50 chance he misses all of next year if surgery is needed. If that happens, the Diamondbacks paid 210 million for 4 1/3 years of performance. If you put 1 WAR = 8 million....210/8 = 26.25 WAR/6 seasons = 4.375 WAR per season. That's the mark he'd have to hit to be worth the contract. 2022 = 4.45 bWAR/fWAR, 2023 = 3.45 bWAR/fWAR, 2024 = 3.6 bWAR/fWAR. The way he was trending, it would have been hard to hit the 4.375 WAR per season mark and that is if he was fully healthy that entire time.

Graham Glasgow is also taking snaps at center and has plenty of NFL experience at that position. Either he or Ratledge is a step down, but I don't think this will be a major problem for the Lions. Between Glasgow, Ratledge, Christian Mahogany and 5th round pick Miles Frazier, they still look pretty solid in the interior offensive line.