JosephC

If the Brewers become buyers, I see a reunion with Luis Urias as a pretty reasonable type acquisition. Urias is batting .252/.338/.423/.761 this season and is on pace for a 2.1 bWAR or 1.5 fWAR season. He's mostly played 2B/SS this year, but still has played the most MLB innings at 3B and is a career +10 DRS as a third baseman. He is a free agent after this season and that minor league team in Sacramento will almost certainly be open to dealing him. His salary for the season is only 1.1 million, along with performance bonuses of 150K for reaching plate appearance milestones (200, 300, 350, 400, 500), so he is on pace to make 1.7 million. He did next to nothing in 2023 and 2024 which should keep the price-tag very reasonable.

I went over to the Baseball Trade Values site yesterday for the first time in probably a year. Somebody had posted a proposed swap of Rhys Hoskins and 3B-Ben Williamson. I think that would be the type of return that Brewer fans could expect if Hoskins is traded. Williamson is seeing his first MLB action this year and has been terrible offensively. He doesn't project to be a power hitter so he will never likely post impressive slugging percentages, but he could turn out to be a good OBP guy that projects to be a plus-plus defender at third base. Personally I'm not for the trade as I see a bunch of 3B candidates in the Brewers system that aren't that far away, but this would not be a crazy swap.

I don't see the Brewers offering any player a qualifying offer. I'm not an arbitration specialist, but it looks like the Brewers would already be in the 80 millions when looking at salaries plus buyouts, and last year the qualifying offer was 21.05 million. If they offered Hoskins or Woodruff that, there is a reasonable enough chance they would accept, and based on the recent spending habits of Attanasio, the Brewers might not be left with any money for free agents. Just looking at the math of what to expect as a return for players in their last contract year. Anyone trading for Hoskins would probably be looking to get 1 WAR out of him over the final two months of a season. Over the last 2 1/3 seasons (throwing out the year missed due to injury) he's been roughly a 2 bWAR/fWAR player, if you just ignore last year, he's roughly a 3 WAR player, so expecting 1 WAR over 1/3 a season is completely reasonable. 1 WAR = 8 million in value. His contract for this year is 18 million, 1/3 of the season is 6 million (Milwaukee is stuck with the mutual option buyout). 8 million - 6 million = 2 million of surplus value. I doubt if that even gives them a prospect in the top 20 of some team's prospect list. Quintana's fWAR makes him look like a really mediocre pitcher, his bWAR makes him look like a #2 starter. If you take the average, he's been a 1.7 bWAR/fWAR player over the last 2 1/3 seasons, so the "unbiased" expectation over the last 2 months of the season would be 0.6 WAR. 0.6 * 8 million = 4.8 million in value. 1/3 of his salary would only be 0.67 million, so there is 4.13 million in surplus value there. If the Brewers push his mutual option buyout on the other team, that drops the surplus value to 2.13 million which is about the same as Hoskins. More than likely the Brewers eat that buyout and Quintana could return a prospect somewhere in the range of #16-#25 from a teams prospect list...or they could maybe opt for a couple fringe prospects instead (say a lottery ticket and an organizational filler player). I'd actually put Civale as having negative value right now. Luckily his best year, 2023, still figures into the mix. But pro-rating this year out and then taking the average of the last 3 years, he's roughly a 0.9 WAR/year player. So that's 0.3 WAR over 2 months = 2.4 million in value. Salary is 8 million so 1/3 of that number is 2.67 million, resulting of a surplus value of -0.27 million. I don't even see them getting a lottery ticket for him. If a trade would happen, the opposing team would have to be desperate and the return to Milwaukee would probably be the definition of organizational filler (think a 27 year old that is pitching in high A that has about a 0.01% chance of pitching in the majors). The only two players the Brewers may be interesting in dealing that would actually bring back a notable return are Peralta and Contreras. Other than that, if I'm sitting in the opposing GM chair, I don't see a whole lot to get excited about.

It would be pretty hard to convince me that this injury was career ending after he was playing again later in the year. Reports are that it was a non-displaced patella fracture and a laceration. Generally those are not career ending. He was a -1.7 bWAR player the year before this happened and was a -0.2 bWAR player the year this happened and next year would have been his age 37 season. He showed that he could no longer play the outfield in 2022 which left him as a 1B/DH that has a slash line of .206/.310/.332/.642 over his last two seasons of MLB at-bats. Oh, and by the way, he really was only a 1B/DH option against left-handed pitching because he never hit right handed pitching that well (.215/.299/.362/.661 career against RHP). This has all the makings of him suing the Reds for X million dollars. Then his lawyer and the Reds lawyers get together and his lawyer almost immediately agrees to a settlement that's about 20% of X. Then the lawyer takes a pretty big chunk out of that X.

Warning! Graphic Footage!

I didn't mind the move. I think it was about time for the Jaguars to try something big. Lawrence was supposed to fix that franchise and he has not. I thought Hunter was the best player in the draft and was a reasonable candidate to make the big move. The Jaguars were in a position to do this. After the trade, they ended up without a second round pick, but still ended up with two third round picks and two fourth round picks. In total, they ended up picking 9 players in this draft, and 5 of them were within the first 107 picks. Next year they will be without a first but they still will have a bunch of picks. Tankathon have them with 11 picks currently, no first but 3 third rounders and 7 picks in the first 5 rounds. While I didn't mind the trade, I'm not so hot on the players they ended up with. Ransaw and Tuten are plus-plus athletes but have questionable "football profiles." Milum seemed too slow and heavy footed to ever survive at tackle, but sounds like they are sticking him at guard and he might be a pretty good player inside. Kiser is a pretty good linebacker who worked out better than expected, I could see him as being a solid, steady type player that may not grab headlines but gets the job done. The later round picks didn't do anything for me. It was surprising to see that they didn't take any defensive linemen, because that seemed to be a need area, especially when picking 2 linebackers and 2 running backs. Even though Cleveland should have been the real beneficiaries of this move, I like what Jacksonville ended up with much more than what Cleveland ended up with. I could swear, that while messing around with mock draft simulators back in February, that the Browns were up to 12 picks. So they make this move down which should result in even more picks, so they can fill holes all over the field because almost every position was considered a need area. They also needed bodies all over to make up for all the cap space wasted on the pitiful Deshaun Watson contract. And when all is said and done, the Browns ended up getting 7 players out of this draft. And of those 7 players, 2 quarterbacks and 2 running backs. What the hell? But when you trade a pick for Kenny Pickett, then draft Dillon Gabriel, then use two more picks to trade up and draft Sanders...that's 4 picks right there on just quarterbacks.

The chain of custody was never broken. A chain of custody is only a record of who had it and where it was from collection to testing. If it sits in a guy's refrigerator over the weekend, and the guy has it documented that it sat in his refrigerator over the weekend, then the chain of custody is intact. The technicality was a violation of MLB's protocol, which wasn't a violation of the protocol of the collection agency. MLB's protocol indicated the sample must be shipped immediately, the collection agency's protocol indicated it could be held over the weekend if stored properly. It was MLB's responsibility to verify that their protocol matched the protocol of the collection agency, and instruct the collection agency to change their policy, which MLB failed to do. MLB admitted this was their oversight and the collection agency or the sample collector were not at fault. There was no "second one." When he was suspended, it was the result of the Biogenesis investigation, where the documents uncovered in 2013 linked him to his PED usage in 2011.

Should have hired Braun's lawyers, proven performers at finding technicalities to get testosterone abusers out of trouble (at least until the distributor gets busted)!

I don't see the Packers 2026 cap being a big problem at this time. I'm not sure of all the rules surrounding cap carryover from one season to the next, but they are significantly under the 2025 cap now, so it wouldn't surprise me if they had a solid 20+ million to carry over from this season to 2026. Add in all the players that you had mentioned that can be restructured, I think they are in pretty decent shape for 2026.

Using the information available and the calculator at overthecap.com, it looks like Thuney's new contract puts the Bears about 8.75 million over the 2026 cap after they pay next year's rookie class. The Packers are approximately 11.6 million over, the Lions are approximately 53.6 million over and the Vikings are approximately 53.7 million over. Overthecap have 10 teams over the 2026 cap when including the Bears, It's interesting that 4 of them come from the same division. I don't see this as being a big issue for the Bears as they have a whole bunch of players that will be seeing "new money" in 2026 which gives them a significant amount of wiggle room to restructure deals. DJ Moore = 23.5 million. Montez Sweat = 21 million. Jaylon Johnson = 16 million. Tremaine Edmunds = 15 million. Jonah Jackson = 13.5 million. Drew Dalman = 12 million. Cole Kmet = 10 million.

I'd throw them a offer of Doubs for a 5th round pick plus CB-Corey Trice Jr. Trice was a 7th round pick in 2023, a tall, linear...best fit as a press corner player who was raw coming out of Purdue...so maybe we'd get lucky and catch him right when he is rounding into something. Has only appeared in 6 games in 2 years so he is still a big unknown, no doubt about that. He scored an 85 in the Next Gen Athleticism rating, so I already know the Gutekunst likes him. I also think trading Doubs leaves the Packers one receiver short. I wouldn't be all that interested in trading him if it wasn't for the past suspension and that peripheral stuff. But as it is, if I could get a pick and a young guy at a position of need..........

I also don't see Jenkins playing in 2026 on his current deal. He's either getting an extension that lowers the 2026 cap number, or he will be released. He and his agent likely feel the same way, which is why they are pushing this now.

I think the Brewers only have 2 veteran pieces that would bring back any type of meaningful return. Freddy Peralta and William Contreras. Those are the only guys that have the potential to bring back a top 10 organizational type player. After that, depending on how their performance goes, Hoskins and Quintana could bring back a lower role-player type prospect or a younger fringe prospect with some upside (think of a players that are in the #15-#25 range on an organization's top prospect list. And even to get that type of return, the Brewers would have to pick up the mutual option payout in those deals (so expect to see the other team get a multi-million dollar cash payment from Milwaukee). I've no doubt that the Brewers will get phone calls about some of the younger players (Turang would be an example), but I don't see them trading any of those guys. Unless the Brewers decide to trade Peralta and/or Contreras, I wouldn't expect any type of big organizational gains from being a seller this season (and that assumes they continue to play mediocre at best ball, which may or may not happen).

Kind of surprised the Brewers structured Woodruff's deal like they did. The mutual option payment will likely be about 8% of the team's total payroll next year.

Yes, which is why I continue to make the argument that MLB needs to contract and not expand. If the owners want to continue with the same lopsided economic system, and all indications are that they want to, there is no reason for small market major league baseball to exist. Just think, the Brewers are the model that teams want to emulate. This is Attanasio's 21st full season of being an owner. In the first 20 seasons they have won 0 World Series, have won 2 playoff series and have won the division 5 times. If that is the high-level mark that teams should shoot for, then why even bother?

Reminds me of Ohio State safety Zack Dumas. Back when football was football and actually fun to watch!

I'm classifying Belton as a tendency-breaker. From NFL.com- The Packers have drafted 14 offensive linemen during Gutekunst's seven-year tenure as GM, 2nd-most in the NFL during that span. Out of the 13 OL picks who were invited to the Combine, the average weight was 309 pounds, lightest among any team's OL draft picks over that span. Only one weighed more than 313 pounds (Sean Rhyan at 321 pounds). That and Belton's Next Gen production number was higher than his Next Gen athleticism number. He was the only player in this draft that had a higher production number. The running total for Gutekunst picks are 63 athleticism, 16 production.

Simmons is 95% athlete, 5% football player. He is terrible. He's been tried as a rush backer, off the ball linebacker, safety, slot defender and pretty much has crapped out in all those roles. The Cardinals spent a top 10 pick on him and then turned around and dumped him for a seventh rounder. In 2023 he played in 33.42% of the Giants defensive snaps and in 2024 that number dropped all the way down to 16.53% despite appearing in all 17 games. That pretty much says it all right there. I'm looking at Collin Oliver as serving in a dual 10th defensive lineman (pass-rush specialist), 6th linebacker (developmental) role. They will get him in practice and he will get more practice time at whichever spot he looks better. So I don't think he plays into this discussion despite being the low man on the depth chart. I hope the Packers did not sign Simmons thinking he'll be a slot defender. If he's viewed as a linebacker, he battles it out with Welch for the 5th linebacker spot. Cooper got the Packers 4th most snaps at linebacker last year at 45.09% and Hopper was 5th most at only 1.65%. So if Hopper is a legitimate NFL player, and Simmons or Welch is the fifth linebacker, they probably won't see many snaps on defense. If Hopper is a bust, there could be some significant snaps there...maybe not 45%, but anywhere from 33-40% is a real possibility (and more if other players get injured). If the Packers want to use Simmons all over, based on his history, I think they will end up regretting it.

I'll go with the Eagles as having the most impressive draft on paper. I was a bit skeptical when people started putting LB-Jihaad Campbell in the top 15, but #31 is probably a little lower than he should have gone. Versatile guy who may be able to play ILB or OLB for them (looking at the rest of their roster, I think they will probably start him out at OLB). S-Andrew Mukuba had a mid third round grade on my board (#82), but he wasn't going to make it to their third round pick and I think he's a solid pick at #64 because he seemed to be a bit under-rated. Has a good blend of production and athletic ability. I thought there was a strong case to be made that he should be the third safety picked, and he turned out to be the third safety picked. Trade downs start and they end up with a bunch of extra picks. They grabbed DT-Ty Robinson in round four and I love this pick. He could fit in their line in a couple different spots (not nose tackle), and should be a solid player for them, He won't unseat Jalen Carter anytime soon, so he'll likely begin at DE. Fifth round they took CB-Mac McWilliams, LB-Smael Mondon Jr and C-Drew Kendall. McWilliams is just sort of an average pick. Sturdy built guy that runs well, could end up being a good nickel back. Mondon is light (most the linebackers in this draft are), but can run and has a ton of experience. I think one could make a strong argument that he should have been the fourth linebacker off the board and is a solid round four guy, so to get him in the mid-to-late round five area seems to be good value. I didn't mind Kendall as a late round flyer pick, and wouldn't have minded seeing the Packers grab him with a 7th rounder, but round five may have been too high for him. IMO, the most questionable of the Eagles selections. Four picks in round six: QB-Kyle McCord, OT-Myles Hinton, OT-Cameron Williams, EDGE-Antwaun Powell-Ryland. I'm not really a fan of McCord (not really a fan of any of the QBs in this draft), but round six seems like a pretty reasonable spot for him. Williams was a borderline first rounder when I started playing with mock draft simulators back in January. Obviously he wasn't that good, but he has perfect offensive tackle size and only one year of starting experience, so there are tools to work with. Decent enough value in round six. Hinton has significant experience at both left tackle and right tackle, and looked like one of the best late-round swing-tackle prospects available in this draft. I was expecting Powell-Ryland to go a bit higher than this. Workout numbers showed more athleticism that the tape does, but the guy was a sack machine at Virginia Tech and he could wind up being a pretty good 3-4 OLB pass rusher. In summary, I thought Campbell, Mukuba, Robinson, and Powell-Ryland were good-to-great picks. Only one I thought was really questionable was Kendall.

Gutekunst on Jaire Alexander in yesterday's post-draft press conference- "Yeah, no real updates on that, again, we'll work through that as we go. But no updates there and he's on our roster right now and that's how we'll proceed, but, um, we'll figure that as we go along."

Player versus athlete. All of these numbers only apply to players who were at the combine. I started and noticed one thing immediately. Matthew Golden's Next Gen number for production is 74, for athleticism was 87. Much better athlete than player then, right? Well, not really. When looking at the rank, the 74 ranked 9th on the production chart and the 87 is ranked 9th on the athleticism chart. I thought this could say the player versus athlete evaluation dramatically, but it ended up only impacting Golden. Matthew Golden / Athletic = 87, rank = 9 / Production = 74, rank = 9, RESULT = EVEN in terms of rank Belton / Athletic = 72, rank = 19 / Production = 73, rank = 10, RESULT = Production Savion Williams / Athletic = 83, rank = 12 / Production = 72, rank = 15, RESULT = Athlete Sorrell / Athletic = 78, rank = 8 / Production = 64, rank = 27, RESULT = Athlete Oliver / Athletic = 80, rank = 7 / Production = 69, rank = 20, RESULT = Athlete Brinson / Athletic = 76, rank = 13 / Production = 65, rank = 22, RESULT = Athlete Robinson = Not at Combine John Williams / Athletic = 78, rank = 10 / Production = 67, rank = 15, RESULT = Athlete

One other interesting thing to note for those who follow the old Badgers. The Colts drafted Hunter Wohler as a linebacker, not a defensive back.

I'd go a little lower- Golden = B. Board said he was worth the pick (#21), but I have some reservations over the lack of great production at Houston and the fact that it sounds like he has some work to do on his game. Belton = B+. Board had him at #91 so this appears to be an over-draft. But I like him. I think he has a chance to start at left tackle although most don't. Should be a starting guard at worst, and provides some insurance at left tackle if Walker leaves and Morgan is not up to the task. Williams = D-. I hate this pick. Only upside I see is that he looks fairly good on those red-zone, jump-ball type plays. Otherwise he seems like a guy with bad hands, gear-down when making cuts, need to install gadget plays in order to get him involved. Sorrell = B-. His workout numbers show better than his field athletic ability shows. But not a bad player. Could be one of those guys who gets 7 sacks a year and holds up well against the run. The more you look at him, the more he looks like a lower-ceiling, higher-floor type player. 4th round pick, probably hope the guy is on the field for 65% of the snaps (which is a good number considering how much DLmen are rotated in the modern game), and this looks perfectly achievable. Oliver = C-. Gutekunt's press-conference talks about him as a pass rusher and SAM. I like him a whole lot more as a situational rusher than a SAM, as the reviews I've heard about his one year as a off-ball linebacker were not great. Seems like a better fit as a 3-4 OLB. Brinson = C-. I can appreciate the competition at Georgia is top-notch, but it's still concerning that he only started 8 games in 5 years. But this is pick #198, and there is enough athletic ability there where I don't hate the pick. Robinson = C. Only 1 year at Tulane, was at Furman before that. Actual height is 5-10 3/4, 184 pounds, ran a 4.39 at Tulane's pro day. Second team all-conference this past season. Other than that, I don't know squat. Williams = C. Another left tackle that pretty much everyone says will be a guard despite good workout numbers and long arms. We'll see. Sounds like his play while at Cincinnati was pretty average. So what does that come out to? Probably a C+ when just looking at the players? Final grade = C- So I'll knock it down to C- for the following reasons. Gutekunst said he would like more picks but failed to add any when it looks like there should have been several opportunities available. Almost everybody had pass-rushing end, cornerback and wide receiver as the three most pressing immediate needs, and it was round four before defensive end was addressed and round seven before cornerback was addressed. After adding a round one wide receiver, was wide receiver still such a need area that it needed to be addressed again in round three?

Undrafted signings are starting to trickle out. From Acme Packing Company, which has been a pretty good resource this off-season- RB - Amar Johnson/South Dakota State RB - Jalen White/Georgia Southern WR - Julian Fleming/Penn State OL - Tyler Cooper/Minnesota OL - J.J. Lippe/Northern Illinois OL - Brant Banks/Rice DT - Nazir Stackhouse/Georgia LB - Jamon Dumas-Johnson/Kentucky CB - Tyron Herring/Delaware CB - Kahzir "Buggs" Brown/Florida Atlantic S - Johnathan Baldwin/UNLV Tryout- QB - Taylor Elgersma/Willfrid Laurier https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2025/4/26/24418295/green-bay-packers-2025-undrafted-free-agent-tracker-signings-news-rumors-roster-update

All three of the picks have been top-30 visits. So for today's predictions, I'm throwing out everything that I previously did and focusing on guys who have been linked to the Packers. 4-124 - Elijah Roberts/EDGE/SMU A top-30 visit. 5-159 - Jason Marshall Jr./CB/Florida A top-30 visit. I've been looking at Marshall since early February and have always liked him as a late-round candidate. I think this would be a round too early for him though. 6-198 - C.J. Dippre/TE/Alabama No connection to Packers (that I know of). 7-237 - Dalton Cooper/OT/Oklahoma State A top-30 visit. Could also be John Williams, Esa Pole, Jacob Bayer who were also top-30 visits. 7-250 - Zeek Biggers/DT/Georgia Tech Not a top-30 visit, but did meet with the Packers at the combine and they haven't taken a DT yet in this scenario....