JosephC

I whined and complained about that trade up to get Sander. But I will say, Sander may have had the greatest game by a punter I ever saw. It was an Ohio State-Purdue game, and Sander must have had 5 punts in that game that put Purdue within their own 5 yard line. That had to have happened over 20 years ago and I still remember it. But Sander did not have a big leg. I would had no problem with the Packers taking him in the fifth based on his directional ability, and if that would have happened, I would defend the pick as reasonable at the time it was made (even though Sander was a bust). But to trade up into round three was near insanity. My favorite Sherman draft story was when he took Javon Walker, and in the press conference at the end of the day he literally said, "he has trouble catching the ball, but he has 10 1/2 inch hands so we'll teach him to catch the ball." I am probably not remembering the exact hand measurement, but the rest of that quote is really close to what he said. Back to specialists...even the best get burned by that every now and then. Even though Wolf didn't do a very good job in round one IMO, he was absolutely remarkable in the later rounds and overall was a true master when handling the draft. But he took Penn State kicker Brett Conway in the third round, and that guy was awful. If memory serves me correctly, he missed three field goals in the first pre-season game and everyone in the state knew at that moment that he would amount to nothing.

I think I would have had all the permits in hand before starting to build something like that. Of course, I didn't make 80 million dollars during my (ongoing) career, so I don't exactly have 10s of thousands of dollars to throw away in case something goes sideways.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2024/04/01/how-to-use-the-brewers-new-qr-code-parking-payment-system-at-american-family-field/73145186007/ So the Brewers and Interstate Parking Company teamed up and built this system from the ground up. So why would the following not work- I log in on March 26 and buy tickets and a preferred parking pass for the April 2 game. At that time, I enter my plate number to tie it to the pass and submit it. So they have the plate number in their system for April 2. I'm done, no messing with anything once I get to the park. On the morning of April 2, the kid runs off with the vehicle I was going to use so I have to take the other vehicle. I log in, look at my purchases, find my preferred parking pass for the April 2 game, edit the license plate number and submit. Old plate number is immediately removed from the system for April 2, new plate number is the vehicle that is now legal in the lot for the day, a system that prevents two vehicles from using the same parking pass. Place signs around the parking lots telling people they have to have the correct plate number entered. So if the above happens and you forget to enter the right plate number before you get to the park, then at that point you can mess with your phone, or go to a kiosk, or find a parking dude to help you.

So I turned 55 a few months ago. While I don't qualify for social security for many years, at 55 I am eligible to go to my local senior center and get a bunch of senior discounts. So as somewhat of a senior, I can say that us old folks do not mind technology. But what we don't like is, when we are giving someone our money, that getting the return service or goods is NOT made as easy as possible. After all, we are the paying customer. Old folks remember when you would drive up, open the window, hand someone three bucks and you were taken care of and on your merry way. Now you have to fiddle around with your phone, take pictures of lamp posts, fumble around with entering license plate numbers and credit card numbers, and in the end you give them $15 as part of a process that is a complete pain in the ass compared to what it used to be. And this all assumes you have fully functional equipment. For example, the camera of my last phone went all to crap and I don't use the camera, so I wasn't about to go out and spend several hundred dollars on a different phone just to get a working camera. I still used that phone for another 2 years because it did everything that I needed it to do. So if I still had that phone today, add in flagging down a parking guy along with the rest of it. I have no intention of ever stepping foot inside AmFam Field ever again, so personally I couldn't give a crap. But I certainly understand why people would not like this system.

Trade crazy mock draft (for everyone other than Green Bay) Admittedly I pay little attention to the NFL these days, so I used the following link for team needs as it was the most up-to-date list I could find. Note that I have a decent grip on what I think the Packers need, so I really didn't follow the list of needs for Green Bay, although it looks like I did. 2024 NFL Draft order, biggest needs for every team, plus key free agent signings, departures for all 32 clubs - CBSSports.com I did go through every pick through 7 rounds, but was too lazy to type out every pick from rounds 4-7. Only included picks for the NFC North teams and players that at one time or another played for the Badgers. Please forgive the occasional typo as I am just too lazy to go back and proof-read it. At least I was aware enough at the end to go back and replace Redskins with Commanders as I made that mistake more than once. Round One 1. Bears – Caleb Williams/QB/USC Vikings get #2 and #67 (third)…Commanders get #11, #23, #108 (fourth), #167 (fifth) and 2025 first round pick 2. Vikings – Jayden Daniels/QB/LSU Raiders get #3…Patriots get #13, #44 (second) and 2025 first round pick 3. Raiders – Drake Maye/QB/North Carolina 4. Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr./WR/Ohio State Titans get #5…Chargers get #7, #106 (fourth) and 2025 fourth round pick 5. Titans – Joe Alt/OT/Notre Dame Commanders get #6 and #107 (fourth)…Giants get #11 and #40 (second) 6. Commanders – J.J. McCarthy/QB/Michigan 7. Chargers – Rome Odunze/WR/Washington 8. Falcons – Jared Verse/EDGE/Florida State Jaguars get #9…Bears get #17 and #48 (second) 9. Jaguars – Malik Nabers/WR/LSU Colts get #10…Jets get #15, #82 (third) and 2025 fourth round pick 10. Colts – Quinyon Mitchell/CB/Toledo Eagles get #11…Giants get #22, #50 (second) and #120 (fourth) 11. Eagles – Terrion Arnold/CB/Alabama Rams get #12 and #145 (fifth)…Broncos get #19 and #52 (second) 12. Rams – Dallas Turner/EDGE/Alabama 13. Patriots – Olumuyiwa Fashanu/OT/Penn State Bengals get #14…Saints get #18 and #80 (third) 14. Bengals – Brock Bowers/TE/Georgia 15. Jets – Brian Thomas Jr/WR/LSU Cowboys get #16 and #102 (fourth)…Seahawks get #24, #56 (second) and #216 (sixth) 16. Cowboys – J.C. Latham/OT/Alabama Cardinals get #17…Bears get #27, #66 (third) and #186 (sixth) 17. Cardinals – Chop Robinson/EDGE/Penn State 18. Saints – Troy Fautanu/OT/Washington Commanders get #19…Broncos get #23 and #100 (fourth) 19. Commanders – Tyler Guyton/OT/Oklahoma Bills get #20, #98 (third)…Steelers get #28, #60 (second) and #189 (sixth) 20. Bills – Nate Wiggins/CB/Clemson Commanders get #21…Dolphins get #36 (second), #78 (third) and #107 (fourth) 21. Commanders – Laiatu Latu/EDGE/UCLA 22. Giants – Graham Barton/IOL/Duke Chiefs get #23…Broncos get #32, #95 (third) and 2025 fourth round pick 23. Chiefs – Taliese Fuaga/OT/Oregon State Rams get #24…Seahawks get #83 (third), 2025 first round pick and 2026 second round pick 24. Rams – Byron Murphy II/DT/Texas 25. Packers – Jordan Morgan/OT/Arizona 26. Buccaneers – Jackson Powers-Johnson/IOL/Oregon 27. Bears – Darius Robinson/EDGE/Missouri 28. Steelers – Adonai Mitchell/WR/Texas Patriots get #29…Detroit gets #34 (second) and #103 (fourth) 29. Patriots – Bo Nix/QB/Oregon 30. Ravens – Amarius Mims/OT/Georgia 31. 49ers – Jer’Zhan Newton/DT/Illinois 32. Broncos – Kool-Aid McKinstry/CB/Alabama Round Two Giants get #33 and #240 (seventh)…Panthers get #40, #120 (fourth) and #166 (fifth) 33. Giants – Jonathan Brooks/RB/Texas 34. Lions – Cooper DeJean/CB/Iowa 35. Cardinals – Ennis Rakestraw Jr./CB/Missouri Falcons get #36…Dolphins get #43 and #109 (fourth) 36. Falcons – Kamari Lassiter/CB/Georgia 37. Chargers – T’Vondre Sweat/DL/Texas 38. Titans – Edgerrin Cooper/LB/Texas A&M 39. Panthers – Tony Franklin/WR/Oregon 40. Panthers – Ja’Tavion Sanders/TE/Texas 41. Packers – Payton Wilson/LB/NC State 42. Texans – Junior Colson/LB/Michigan 43. Dolphins – Cooper Beebe/IOL/Kansas State 44. Patriots – Ladd McConkey/WR/Georgia 45. Saints – Braden Fiske/DL/Florida State 46. Colts – Tyler Nubin/S/Minnesota 47. Giants – Roman Wilson/WR/Michigan 48. Bears – Kris Jenkins/DT/Michigan Lions get #49 and #237 (seventh), Bengals get #61, #103 (fourth) and #164 (fifth) 49. Lions – Xavier Worthy/WR/Texas 50. Giants – Jeremiah Trotter Jr./LB/Clemson 51. Steelers – Christian Haynes/IOL/Connecticut 52. Broncos – Javon Bullard/S/Georgia 49ers get #53 and #161 (fifth)…Eagles get #63 and #94 (third) 53. 49ers – Blake Fisher/OT/Notre Dame 54. Browns – Patrick Paul/OT/Houston 55. Dolphins – Ricky Pearsall/WR/Florida 56. Seahawks – Austin Booker/EDGE/Kansas 57. Buccaneers – Chris Braswell/EDGE/Alabama 58. Packers – Dadrion Taylor-Demerson/S/Texas Tech 59. Texans – Cade Stover/TE/Ohio State 60. Steelers – Kiran Amegadjie/OT/Yale 61. Bengals - Ruke Orhorhoro/DT/Clemson 62. Ravens -Max Melton/CB/Rutgers 63. Eagles – Cole Bishop/S/Utah 64. Chiefs – Keon Coleman/WR/Florida State Round Three 65. Panthers – Kris Abrams-Draine/CB/Missouri 66. Bears – Christian Mahogany/IOL/Boston College 67. Vikings – Xavier Legette/WR/South Carolina 68. Patriots – T.J. Tampa/CB/Iowa State 69. Chargers – Kingsley Suamataia/OT/Brigham Young 70. Giants – D.J. James/CB/Auburn 71. Cardinals – Trey Benson/RB/Florida State 72. Jets – Jaylen Wright/RB/Tennessee 73. Lions – Dominick Puni/IOL/Kansas 74. Falcons – Michael Hall Jr./DL/Ohio State 75. Bears – Zach Frazier/IOL/West Virginia 76. Broncos – DeWayne Carter/DL/Duke 77. Raiders – Zak Zinter/IOL/Michigan 78. Dolphins – Mekhi Wingo/DL/LSU 79. Falcons – Calen Bullock/S/USC 80. Saints – Malachi Corley/WR/Western Kentucky 81. Seahawks – Kamren Kinchens/S/Miami 82. Jets – Theo Johnson/TE/Penn State 83. Seahawks – Matt Goncalves/OT/Pittsburgh 84. Steelers – Renardo Green/CB/Florida State 85. Browns – Jermaine Burton/WR/Alabama 86. Texans – Mike Sainristil/CB/Michigan 87. Cowboys – Sedrick Van Pran-Granger/IOL/Georgia 88. Packers – Caedan Wallace/OT/Penn State (to play OG) 89. Buccaneers – Cam Hart/CB/Notre Dame 90. Cardinals – Sataoa Laumea/IOL/Utah 91. Packers – Andru Phillips/CB/Kentucky 92. Buccaneers – Cedric Gray/LB/North Carolina 93. Ravens – Maason Smith/DT/LSU 94. Eagles – Javon Foster/OT/Missouri 95. Broncos – Devontez Walker/WR/North Carolina 96. Jaguars – Adisa Isaac/EDGE/Penn State 97. Bengals – Brandon Dorius/EDGE/Oregon 98. Bills – Hunter Nourzad/IOL/Penn State 99. Rams – MarShawn Lloyd/RB/USC Round Four 100. Broncos – Michael Penix Jr./QB/Washington 122. Bears – Curtis Jacobs/LB/Penn State 126. Packers – Marcus Harris/DL/Auburn 129. Vikings – Jordan Jefferson/DL/LSU Round Five 141. Panthers – Braelon Allen/RB/Wisconsin 157. Vikings – Gottlieb Ayedze/OT/Maryland (to play OG) 169. Packers -Trevin Wallace/LB/Kentucky Round Six 177. Vikings – Xavier Thomas/EDGE/Clemson 186. Bears – Tayvion Robinson/WR/Kentucky 201. Lions – Nelson Ceaser/EDGE/Houston 202. Packers – Jordan Travis/QB/Florida State 205. Lions – Zion Logue/DL/Georgia 206. Browns – Isaac Guerendo/RB/Louisville 219. Packers – Patrick McMorris/S/California Round Seven 227. Titans – Tanor Bortolini/IOL/Wisconsin (to play OG) 230. Vikings – Ro Torrence/CB/Arizona State 232. Vikings – Logan Lee/DL/Iowa 237. Lions – Millard Bradford/S/TCU 245. Packers – Eric Watts/EDGE/UConn 249. Lions – Jaheim Bell/TE/Florida State 255. Packers – Bub Means/WR/Pittsburgh

I agree with you there. You would think the Packers success over the last few DECADES would show NFL GMs that good things come to those who wait. Favre drafted 33rd by the Falcons and traded to Green Bay for #17. Aaron Rodgers #24. Love #26. Well maybe Love will end up not being so good, but year one has to make people pretty optimistic. Yeah, all those other teams need to go all in and get a top 5 pick to get a franchise QB. Just a couple days ago I had posted the following on a different message board. It actually started with all the media and other people ripping on Russell Wilson. I couldn't help but notice that Wilson had a 26/8 TD/INT ratio last year...and really how bad can a QB be with a ratio like that? So I took an hour or so and cranked some numbers and one thing led to another. LET ME JUST SAY THAT I DON'T CONSIDER THE QB RANKING TO BE ANYTHING NEAR DEFINITIVE, JUST THOUGHT IT WAS INTERESTING WHEN THROWING IN A COUPLE VARIABLES THAT GENERALLY DO NOT GET THROWN IN. In particular, I know Russell Wilson is a fumbler and will take sacks and those were the primary reason I looked up and include those as statistics. I complete agree that they should not be weighted as heavily as other categories, but nonetheless here it is. I'm guessing most people would look at the list, and roughly speaking, would say it's not so bad. Post One- 32 QBs with the highest amount of pass attempts in 2023. Took these six categories- QB rating Completion Percentage Yards per Attempt TD/INT ratio Sacks Taken per Attempt Fumbles per Attempt For each category, 1st place ranking earned 32 points, 32nd place ranking earned 1 point. Added all points for each category. Final rankings: 1. Dak Prescott 2. Brock Purdy 3. Jared Goff 4. Kirk Cousins 5. Tua Tagovailoa 6. Derek Carr 7. Patrick Mahomes 8. Matthew Stafford 9. Lamar Jackson 10. Jake Browning 11. Josh Allen 12. Jordan Love 13. CJ Stroud 14. Justin Herbert 15. Geno Smith 16. Joe Burrow 17. Baker Mayfield 18. Russell Wilson 19. Trevor Lawrence 20. Jalen Hurts 21. Kyler Murray 22. Aidan O'Connell 23. Mac Jones 24. Gardner Minshew 25. Kenny Pickett 26. Sam Howell 27. Desmond Ridder 28. Will Levis 29. Justin Fields 30. Joshua Dobbs 31. Bryce Young 32. Zach Wilson Post Two- If you want a franchise quarterback, you better hope to get to the top of the draft to get him. Draft position: Top 1/3rd from previous list 1. Dak Prescott = 135 2. Brock Purdy = 252 3. Jared Goff = 1 4. Kirk Cousins = 102 5. Tua Tagovailoa = 5 6. Derek Carr = 36 7. Patrick Mahomes = 10 8. Matthew Stafford = 1 9. Lamar Jackson = 32 10. Jake Browning = undrafted (we'll count 257 for the math) 11. Josh Allen = 7 Middle 1/3rd 12. Jordan Love = 26 13. CJ Stroud = 2 14. Justin Herbert = 6 15. Geno Smith = 39 16. Joe Burrow = 1 17. Baker Mayfield = 1 18. Russell Wilson = 75 19. Trevor Lawrence = 1 20. Jalen Hurts = 53 21. Kyler Murray = 1 Bottom 1/3rd 22. Aidan O'Connell = 135 23. Mac Jones = 15 24. Gardner Minshew = 178 25. Kenny Pickett = 20 26. Sam Howell = 144 27. Desmond Ridder = 74 28. Will Levis = 33 29. Justin Fields = 11 30. Joshua Dobbs = 135 31. Bryce Young = 1 32. Zach Wilson = 2 Average draft position of top 1/3rd = 76 3 top 5 picks 5 not taken in round 1 Average draft position of middle 1/3rd = 21 5 top 5 picks (4 #1 overall picks) 3 not taken in round 1 Average draft position of bottom 1/3rd = 68 2 top 5 picks 6 not taken in round 1 Amendment - If you want an average NFL starting quarterback, you better hope to get to the top of the draft to get him. Also note that this list does not include, all drafted in the last 10 years- Blake Bortles = #3 overall pick Jameis Winston = #1 overall pick Marcus Mariota = #2 overall pick Carson Wentz = #2 overall pick Mitchell Trubisky = #2 overall pick Sam Darnold = #3 overall pick

I just don't see an overpay for McCarthy at #5. ESPN has him 18 overall, CBS Sports has him 19 overall, Pro Football Focus has him at 28 overall, Jeremiah at NFL.com has him at 21 overall. McCarthy will be over-drafted, I woudn't be shocked to see the Vikings take him at #5, but I don't think there is a dramatic overpay for them to get up there to take him. I think if the Vikings were content to deal #11 and #23 to take McCarthy, the deal would have already happened as that would be one sweet deal for the Chargers and they are probably a team that would be looking to trade down. Only thing that would make me think otherwise is that, since they traded Allen, that they may be dead set on getting one of the big 3 receivers in this draft and 11 likely takes them out of position to do that. But still having all their picks, an extra 4th rounder, and all their 2025 picks, they easily have enough ammo to go from #5 to #11 on a sweet deal and then jump back up to get a wide receiver. Possible the 3rd of the group makes it to #9 and I would have to believe the Bears are looking to move down with that pick since they currently only have 4 picks. My best guess is that the Vikings get into the top 3 and take one of those guys, McCarthy ends up going somewhere in the #7 - #9 range and a team like the Broncos or Raiders trades up to get him.

Only illegal gambling. If gambling is to be done, they want sure that it is done through a legal sportsbook (that MLB is partnered with), so the owners can profit from it. This after 100 years of saying no player can be involved in gambling because it may affect the integrity of the game.

No way. I still use the chart at Ourlads, as up to a couple years ago, tends to trend better with what has actually occurred in the past. According to that chart- Chargers get - #11, #23 Vikings get - #5, #69 (3rd), #110 (4th) -that would be a pretty even deal. If the Vikings are pretty desperate, I could see them only asking for the 4th rounder back, but to just do #5 for #11 and #23 is borderline crazy to me. Now if the completely unexpected happens and QBs go 1 & 2, someone trades up to #3 and takes Harrison, and the Cardinals (who have extra picks) take the attitude of, "screw it, we are just going to stay here and take the guy we want"...meaning the unexpected happens and one of the big 3 QBs makes it to #5, that would change things. But for JJ McCarthy, I just can't see it with the way the landscape currently sits.

If I was Snell, I would have overruled Boras and taken the 150 million. There were 58 pitchers who threw at least 150 innings last year. Snell was 16th in xFIP (3.62) and 28th in SIERA (4.06). His ERA-FIP was -1.19, the biggest negative number by a fairly significant number (Josiah Grey was #2 at -1.03, next closest was -0.68), His ERA was a huge outlier when looking through the rest of the numbers. Interestingly enough, Corbin Burnes had a 3.80 xFIP and 4.02 SIERA. Burnes lead the league in BABIA at .244, Snell was 3rd with .256. Interesting the things one stumbles across when checking out some of the numbers. Of course, Burnes ERA (3.39) was more in line with what it "should have been," as compared to Snell's ridiculous looking 2.25.

My guess is the 3rd pick would cost the Vikings #11, #23, #108 (4th rounder) and their 2025 3rd round pick. I don't think it will take another 1st round pick to get up there, but it should take more than just #11 and #23. The Patriots also need a QB, they will not move out of that spot unless they wind up at least a bit on the plus-side for trading down.

I don't think #11 + #23 gets the Vikings any higher than #5. Decent chance that Williams, Daniels, Maye goes #1/#2/#3 and it would be very hard to get Arizona out of that #4 spot if Harrison in on the board. I don't think they make this move if they are drooling over McCarthy. He'll be overdrafted for sure, but to use the #11 pick, trade 2 second rounders, and move down about 50 spots late in the draft...to take a QB at #5 that seems to rank about 15th on prospect lists seems like too crazy of a move...even for the Vikings. Could work out for Green Bay as it does seem to me that the top tier QBs are mostly overrated (as normal), so it sure wouldn't bother me to see the Vikings end up trading a couple drafts away for one of these guys. They have any really attractive players that they can afford to trade away to get up there, or are they going to have to package #11, #23 and next years #1 to get into the top 3? Since the Bears market for Fields turned out to be a non-market, if I were them I would take #11, #23, #108 and a 1st rounder and 4th rounder in 2025. That would give the Bears 3 of the top 23 picks this year, and they would have 2 1st rounders, 2 second rounders (second pick is from the Panthers) and 2 fourth rounders in next year's draft, giving them an excellent opportunity for them to get a QB next year. And how good would the Bears and Vikings be next year. Bears definitely should get better with adding 3 first rounders, Vikings could be worse with having a rookie QB out there. Bears and Vikings 2025 1st rounders could end up being better than the #11 and #23 picks the Vikings currently hold.

If you have an offensive line that can consistently open holes 10 yards wide, where the running back doesn't have to find a hole, then Guerendo is your man. Too bad the guy has zero vision and subpar balance for a running back. He is a straight-line runner with great speed, and that is it. Only got to play at Wisconsin when guys in front of him got hurt, went to Louisville, and again got most of his playing time because the guy in front of him got dinged up. If Bartolini could actually snap, I don't think a 3rd/4th rounder for him would be out of the question. But his snapping really didn't seem to improve, I don't know if it can be fixed. He wasn't a very good guard. I don't think I could pick him before the 6th.

Only interested if they have a corporate mode where you can play a phone or apparel company and can bid on players to place them at certain schools, construct marketing plans for each player, figure out how much of the money you spend on players is really not spent because it is becomes a business write-off, which all turns into a competition to see how your investments/returns compare with that of the other companies competing in the same landscape. Just imagine the thrill of owning the nations number one recruit, sending them to USC...and the bitter taste of defeat when turd-brain decides to shoot somebody when he mistakenly thinks that someone stole his stash of weed.

The Buck's location on Midvale closed years ago, they then moved to a spot on University Ave and then closed that one. At the time, the owner said that they would be re-opening when they found a new location...but they never did. I wouldn't be surprised if it's already been 10 years since the spot on University closed. Bucks is damn good, so it's a real shame there isn't one on this side of town anymore. The Cottage Grove location is still in business.

I was the guy who was defending Rocky's earlier in this thread because I would still argue that if you limit the discussion to the quality of the toppings, they are at the top of the list among the chains. However, them ditching the whole-wheat crust was a terrible blow. I rarely get their pizza anymore. Can't remember the last time I did a whole pie, although maybe once every three months will swing around and get a couple slices. Whole west side of Madison pretty much blows for getting a pizza delivered. Roman Candle was really good, but they went out of business. The fascination of Jets wore off pretty quick. It is pretty much down to Glass Nickel if you actually want something that is pretty good...otherwise you might as well just grab something off the Pizza Hut deal page (ho-hum).

I really don't follow things like I used to, but just looking at the WAR values and figuring surplus value, I think the Mets got themselves a pretty good bargain on Taylor. Not going to go into a full breakdown of the math, but Houser would have very little value IMO. He only has one year of control left, and over the last 3 season he's been an average 1.0 bWAR/fWAR player per season. I'd only put his surplus value at +0.7 million, and I value what I term fringe prospects (Crow fits here) at +2.2 million. On the other hand, Taylor has 3 years of team control remaining and over the last three years has averaged 1.4 bWAR/fWAR per season. Next year will be his age 30 season, but even if you start subtracting WAR for 2025 and 2026, I'd feel pretty safe that his value is about 14.4 million over the next three years. With a projected arbitration salary of 1.7 million next year, if he stays on the same trajectory, he's probably only makes 8.4 million over that timeframe, and that might be a stretch. So that's +6.0 million in surplus value...pretty good deal for the Mets to give up a fringe prospect and get 3 years of a 1.4 WAR player who carries a very low salary for his experience level.

The thing that gets lost in all of this is what a terrible contract this is from the "baseball value" perspective. While UCL damage certainly isn't what it once was, and often pitchers come back with increased velocity after Tommy John #1, the success rate of pitchers after TJ #2 is a bit more uncertain. https://www.mlb.com/news/pitchers-to-have-tommy-john-surgery-twice?partnerID=web_article-share And I would argue that many of the listed "came back strong" have actually been pretty average. Eovaldi has the big name, and since the second TJ he has had two 3+ WAR seasons, but in the six seasons following TJ #2 he has averaged less than 2 bWAR per season and is almost a lock to miss at least a bunch of starts. Daniel Hudson got shipped to the bullpen and has been a 1.8 bWAR pitcher over the last 10 years (that's not 1.8 bWAR per season, that's a total of 1.8 bWAR over 10 season). Chris Capuano after 2008, wow, I cannot believe the guy even suggested that. Capuano was an annual 0.35 bWAR player following his second TJ. I wouldn't be surprised if Ohtani comes back far stronger than any name on this list, but I'd bet just about anything that one more arm injury will end his days as a pitcher. Doesn't matter if it's a third TJ or a significant shoulder injury, that arm will likely be shot after the next one...which is pretty likely to happen since he will already have had has second significant elbow injury at the age of 28. No doubt the guy is a great hitter, but over the last 3 years his average annual bWAR/fWAR as a hitter is pretty much right at 5 WAR. I have no argument, none whatsoever, if you want to argue that his bat makes him a annual 40 million dollar player for 2024 and the next few seasons after that. But 70 million per year is a ridiculous stretch. Taking a complete guess, I'd project Ohtani's WAR values over the next 10 years as follows: 2024 = 5.5 WAR as a hitter = 5.5 WAR 2025 = 5.0 WAR as a hitter + 3.5 WAR as a pitcher = 8.5 WAR 2026 = 5.0 WAR as a hitter + 4.0 WAR as a pitcher = 9.0 WAR 2027 = 4.5 WAR as a hitter + 2.5 WAR as a pitcher = 7.0 WAR (predict the next arm injury happens in the last third of this season) 2028 = 4.0 WAR as a hitter = 4.0 WAR 2029 = 4.0 WAR as a hitter + 0.5 WAR as a pitcher = 4.5 WAR (they put him on the mound but due to mediocre performance, decide his days as a pitcher are over) 2030 = 3.5 WAR 2031 = 3.5 WAR 2032 = 3.0 WAR 2033 = 2.5 WAR 51 WAR total. $13.72 million spent for every 1 WAR received. That's pretty bad from a $/WAR perspective. Just pulling one example out of the hat, Fangraphs had Yelich's 2023 value at 33.1 million after a 4.1 WAR season....33.1/4.1 = 8.07 million per WAR. And as people who follow this will know, dollars / WAR has not increased in quite some time, in fact has decreased as maybe 5-7 years ago a WAR was considered to be worth 9 million. And that number is based on big-market baseball, as obviously the small-market teams are not going to jump into the free agent markets and give a 3 WAR player a contract that is worth 24 million per season. There will be the talk from the media that the Dodgers have unlimited funds so it doesn't matter, but it's still 700 million tied up in one guy that could have been spent on different players that returns a better dollar/WAR ratio. I also wouldn't buy the idea that this will drum up so much more interest in Dodger baseball, as we are not talking the Brewers or Royals here, this is the Dodgers and last time I checked they didn't seem to have any problems selling tickets (or anything else). This contract has little chance of being a Strasburg or Chris Davis disaster, but I'm pretty confident that in 2034 we will be looking at this contract and saying that it was a pretty bad deal from a "baseball value" perspective.

The total amount of the contract gets divided up and an "equal share" get applied to each year of the contact. So if MLB designed the competitive balance tax in a reasonable manner, even with the Dodgers paying 97.1% of the salary after the contract expires,,,it still should be 700 million / 10 years = Ohtani's salary is 70 million and appears as 70 million on the "Competitive Balance Tax Payroll" for the Dodgers each season from 2024 through 2033. However, due to the design of the CBA, even though the Dodgers are paying him 700 million, the contract is only deemed to be worth $460,814,760 from the player's perspective as they figure the player will lose $239,185,240 by not having that money to invest now, thereby the player loses the capital gains, distributions, dividends, interest that he would have earned if he would have had the full amount of that contract across the length of the contract. Since this is the way it is calculated, Ohtani's "Competitive Balance Tax Payroll" number for the Dodgers will be $46,081,476 for each season from 2024 through 2033, not $70,000,000. Exactly why a player should elect to receive deferred payment, would end up wiping $239,185,240 off the of money that should be part of the payroll for the purpose of calculating the Competitive Balance Tax Payroll is a big mystery. The Dodgers are still paying him 700 million, why should 34% of that be exempt?

? 700 million does not equal 460 million. Saying Ohtani is getting paid 700 million, but that 700 million isn't really 700 million...it's really only 460 million because he will lose out on capital gains/interest/dividends that he would have earned from 2024-2033, does not change the fact that the Dodgers will still be paying him 700 million dollars. If the Dodgers are paying him 700 million dollars, then it stands to reason that the Dodgers should be "charged" 700 million dollars as part of the competitive balance tax.

There have been a couple media outlets that have reported that Ohtani could avoid paying the high California taxes. See the following: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/dodgers/2023/12/11/shohei-ohtani-contract-los-angeles-dodgers-heavy-deferrals/71885939007/ Yet, considering Ohtani earned about $40 million in endorsements last year, easily a record for a baseball player, it’s hardly as if it will affect his modest lifestyle. Besides, deferring such a massive amount of money saves Ohtani from paying about 13.3% in California state taxes. If he moves from California after his contract expires, he’ll avoid the high taxes. Effective on Jan. 1 the state income tax rate increases to 14.4%. Ohtani doesn't earn the 680 million dollars of deferred money until he is actually paid that money, and he won't be paid that money until the current contract expires...and he may no longer be a resident of that state from that date forward.

It's garbage. Saying that Ohtani's 700 million is really only 460 million due to loss of income from gains, dividends, interest is a perfectly legitimate argument FROM THE PLAYER'S PERSPECTIVE. But when looking from the team perspective and the concept of dodging the competitive balance tax, the only thing that matters is how much the team pays a player and how much of that money is "eligible" for the tax. The Dodgers will be paying Ohtani 700 million, Only 460 million of that will count towards calculating the competitive balance tax. From the team's perspective, there is no doubt that it is a tax dodge. And with as money hungry as California politicians are, I'd actually be pretty surprised if we don't see a few representatives from that state really start grumbling about this. Top income rate in that state is 13.3%. I realize it's a progressive tax and the first dollar earned is not taxed at the same rate as the 2,000,000th dollar earned. Just to make the math easy, let's say the effective tax rate for a 70 million dollar earner is 13%. I also realize that players pay taxes on where they play games, so let's just say Ohtani will play 15 road games in the state of California, for a total of 96 games annually in the state. 96/162 = 59.3% of his earnings occur in California. .593 * 700 million * .13 tax rate = 53.96 million. But since he is deferring all that money, his earnings over the 10 years of the contract is only 20 million. .593 * 20 million * .13 tax rate = 1.5418 million. So, if after the last year of this contract, Ohtani up and leaves California, the state is out over 52 million in revenue due to these deferred payments. If Ohtani relocates to a state with no income tax, it's a massive "rich guy tax dodge"...pure and simple. Even if Ohtani goes back to Japan when the deal ends, and has to pay 45% (got the number from a quick internet search, not sure on how accurate that is) on that 680 million dollars in deferred earnings, it's still better than the 37% federal rate + 13.3% California rate = 50.3% tax rate.

The biggest irony to this season - it seemed like many people in Madison disliked the Longo hire. Not because they didn't like him, not because they disliked the spread or air raid offense, but because Longo was one of those super-hot coordinators and they figured he would be in Madison one year before jumping to a head coaching job. I don't think they have to worry about that now.

The big advantage in hiring Espada is that he would have the complete lowdown on all the cutting edge cheating methods employed by MLB teams. I suspect they have become much more sophisticated than the old "bang on a garbage can" technique. Who knows, maybe he could actually get Yelich to start hitting the ball in the air again.

The biggest difference between Hiura and Chourio is that Hiura was no longer a prospect. At the end of 2019 his rookie status was gone and he was a MLB "proven" .938 OPS guy with well over 300 plate appearances. It appeared his only downside was he might get stuck at DH, but his near-masher status indicated an immediate move to DH wouldn't be that much of a problem. Chourio is young, not saying his numbers aren't impressive for the levels he's been playing at, but he's still been a .780 OPS guy in AA and an .851 OPS guy in AAA in an extremely small sample size. Hiura isn't the only recent Brewers that should make one think twice. There is also the Jonathan Singleton story. His deal was for 10 million which doesn't seem like much by today's standard, but at the time it was an "unprecedented" deal (see following article) for a player that hadn't played in the majors. We all know how that turned out. https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-prospect-jon-singleton-to-join-astros-agrees-on-extension/c-77872300#:~:text=Marc Krauss was optioned to Triple-A. The deal,million%2C according to a Major League Baseball source. I would not offer Chouria a big deal until he has a full year of MLB experience under his belt.