JosephC

That's been my speculation the last couple of years. When I first got a satellite dish (30 years ago), the cost was way, way better than cable, there were way more channels and when HD came along the dishes added more HD programing way, way, way faster than cable did. The dish was better in every way except for occasionally losing the signal in bad weather...it was so far ahead of cable in every other regard that it was impossible to think that cable would ever catch up. Through some unexpected turns I wound up back with cable, and when talking with people who have dishes, it almost sounds like cable is now better as the dish is just as expensive and they have the same programming issues that cable runs into (fighting with channels over rates). So streaming is better now, but I think those rates are to draw people in and then when some of the smaller streaming companies start merging and get acquired by bigger companies, that those now favorable rates will vanish over the next decade or so. If there is anything I've learned over the 50+ years of my life, is that THE MAN will get his money out of you one way or another. The very last part of that quote...."they have a good product so many will pay for it"...well we will see if that product will stay a good product once it holds a majority of the marketplace. Experience tells me that the good product will become a lesser and lesser product over time. But we'll see about that.

Just say no to six starting pitchers. Just five years ago there was nothing but bellyaching from just about everywhere that getting a quality #5 starter was nearly impossible, now we will roll with not only 1 or 2 crappy pitchers at #4 and #5 but now add another one to that list. What is really crazy as that pitch counts are going down, which logically would tell you that if guys are throwing less pitches per start then they should be throwing in more games. So just a couple years ago 5-man rotations were the norm and averaging 100 pitchers per outing was a rough expectation. Considering the fifth guy would get skipped a few times, we'd be looking at 33 starts. 100 times 33 = 3300 pitches per season. So now if we jump to 6 man rotations with skipping the 6th guy a few times, that puts us at 28 starts and now it almost seems the expectation for pitches per start is down to about 90 pitches. 90 times 28 = 2520 pitches per season So the Brewers would take 25% of Woodruff's workload away and would be handing it to Eric Lauer. Just doesn't seem like all that smart a plan to me. Have to admit that I would be going the exact opposite way IF I HAD A PLUS BULLPEN (which the Brewers might have). Four man rotation with an absolute cap of 90 pitchers per start but the expectation that the starters average 80 pitches per start. So that is 41 starts at 80 pitches per start which brings the total to 3280 pitches which is where the majority of pitchers have probably been for the last two decades.

I wouldn't mind seeing Bradley in a Brewer's uniform one bit. But unlike Odorizzi, where the market seems to be cold, it sounds like the Mets, Red Sox, Astros and Giants are all in on Bradley. Have to think this one is a long shot.

I notice how you have to go to Deadspin for something like that, and not one of the major sport media outlets (ESPN, CBS Sports). Kind of like the the Fiserv Forum rip-off. Bruce Murphy of Urban Milwaukee had some incredibly good articles on that swindle. Not one negative peep out of the Journal-Sentinel. fieldofschemes.com ...one of the very best websites. It's well worth reading their take on Mather's comments- http://www.fieldofschemes.com/2021/02/22/17160/worlds-worst-mlb-exec-gripes-about-mariners-minor-league-stadium-amid-rants-about-foreign-players-not-speaking-good-english/

Kevin Mather is an excellent baseball executive. His organization recently swindled a bunch of dumb, dumb, dumb Seattle politicians out of another 135 million for stadium upgrades. Mission accomplished. And then, to show some good will after the free handout, the Mariners cut the payroll from 150 million to 100 million and will probably be down around 70 million this season. And after all that, people will now be offended over these comments, LOL. I guess I have all my priorities screwed up. I'm more concerned over what that 135 million could have been used for (education, public health...rather than buying a $500 toaster) instead than what Mather has to say. Considering his history, everyone who pays attention already knows that he is a rich, money-grabbing, questionable-character sort of person. But whatever, idiot sports "journalists" will continue to act enraged about statements like this, and then turn around and act like it's just fine to give the same group of guys 100's of millions of dollars when they don't need it. And as for the people who think I'm joking with the $500 toaster comment, see item 25 under Clubhouse Equipment on page 146 of this document- http://douglas-sma.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Safeco_LTCNA_Revised_Draft_III.pdf But don't worry, YOU the people, are not really getting ripped off here because this is a fancy four slice model, unlike the $10 two slice piece of junk all of you non-essentials generally use. Players really need that, without that toaster the club just cannot expect to remain competitive.

With Stearns history of not making big investments in pitching, I'd be completely shocked if the Brewers would give Odorizzi a three year deal. I'm guessing the Brewers would only go one season. Taijuan Walker getting a two year deal tells me that thinking Odorizzi only getting a one year deal is not realistic. But on the other hand, it's February 21 and Odorizzi does not have a deal yet. So even if he has a multi-year offer, there is always a chance that he thinks that offer is too low and he might be willing to do a one year deal and then try again next off-season.

As you said, over his entire career. But the last three seasons against RHP- 2018 = .231/.318/.351/.669 2019 = .266/.312/.386/.698 2020 = .236/.307/.358/.664 I wouldn't be targeting Reddick if I was looking for a guy to hit right handed pitching. Reddick may not be a bad fit for the Brewers as they have very little outfield experience once they get past the three starters. Looking at the defense and baserunning, Reddick just doesn't look like a guy that can do anything that well anymore. Greatest asset is probably his experience. Do the Brewers really want to go with Billy McKinney and Tyrone Taylor as outfielders #4 and #5 next season? I'm not a big fan of adding Reddick but I wouldn't argue with people who would say the Brewers should pursue him. Probably would end up with something like a .310 OBP, .700 OPS and subpar defense (but not horrible defense). Maybe McKinney, Taylor, Fisher, Ray could do better, but that group could do a lot worse too.

I think a Robertson addition could be a pretty good one. I'm looking at the list of free agents and there are guys I would prefer, Jake Odorizzi being one. But if you just look at pure upside, Robertson is probably the best guy still available. Only challenger to that I can find would be Roberto Osuna but he had Tommy John more recently and I'm assuming he will miss most, if not all, of the 2021 season (and obviously I'm ignoring all the other stuff that surrounds Osuna and am only looking at pure upside). If the Brewers were really in on Turner, and have only spent a fraction of what they would have spent on Turner when they signed Anderson and Shaw...seems like there is money there to take a flyer on a boom-or-bust guy like Robertson. And as far as the injury concern...Robertson was never a guy that lived on velocity. Pretty much lived in the 92 MPH region with a fastball/cutter and then had a nasty, nasty curveball. Sure it's possible that his 92 MPH will become an 89 MPH and he'll get shelled at that velocity. But I like his chances for a comeback a bit better considering he wasn't a guy who lived on a power fastball.

I don't think 10 million for a 1 year deal would have been ridiculous at all. Wouldn't go for 2 years though. Nice ERA last year, but most of the peripherals weren't all that great and he looks more like a 4.50 ERA pitcher moving forward instead of the 3.42 ERA he had in 2020. Considering the injury history, I would only be willing to go 1 year at a time. Have to think Odorizzi will be able to get at least a 2 year deal out of somebody after seeing this signing.

This thread has convinced me the Brewer's lineup is worse than I thought. Hard to believe that Shaw gets signed and is just thought to be the #5/#6 hitters against righties by default. Shaw has slashed .190/.309/.350/.659 against righties over the last two seasons. Arcia has posted .234/.288/.367/.655 over the same timeframe. I sure hope the Justin Turner follies did not tie up money when better lineup options may have been available. Even though Urias' numbers against righties are far, far worse...I still have the feeling that he will be the third baseman heading into the season and Robertson or Shaw will have to beat him out for playing time. Stearns just invested way, way to much in this guy to not give him the first opportunity to play everyday. I wouldn't mind seeing him at shortstop but the Brewers still seem enamoured with Arcia. Can't really blame the Brewers for that at this point as Arcia finally showed some promise last year.

Taijaun Walker probably thinking he needs a job and would sign with any team, except the one team that has Derek Fisher on the roster.

I wonder what is up with Odorizzi? A few weeks ago the media were treating it was a foregone conclusion that he was signing a deal with the Red Sox. Lately it seems like the only team he's been linked to has been the Mets, but basically the Mets have been linked to every available pitcher since they lost out on Bauer. Nightengale recently reported that Odorizzi had been seeking a 3 year, 45 million dollar deal, but Odorizzi has to know by now that he's much more likely to end up with a Paxton-like deal. Just have to wonder if the Red Sox remain the top bidder and Odorizzi is just sitting around seeing if he can suck and an extra million or two out of them. I'd kind of like to see the Brewers take a look at him if he is down to Paxton contract territory. Odorizzi was awful last year but he was never healthy, started the year with a back problem, then got smacked with a line drive in the chest, then had a blister issue. No reported arm problems that I heard of. Odorizzi started 182 games in the prior 6 seasons, so remarkably durable with over 30 starts per year over that stretch. 3.88 ERA/4.09 FIP/2.8 K/BB. Even with the awful 2020 numbers, since the beginning of 2018 he's been a 4.11 ERA/3.88 FIP/2.8 K/BB pitcher.

Brewers are pretty deep in the pen. I don't like Boxberger's chances. Last year he had a 3.00 ERA, but also had a 4.86 FIP and 4.73 xFIP. In 2019 the ERA/FIP/xFIP were 5.40/4.68/5.45, some pretty ugly numbers there. Average projection (THE BAT, ATC, Steamer, ZiPS) for 2021 has him at a 4.82 ERA and a 5.13 FIP. I'll think he'll have to look pretty great in spring training to get a 26-man spot.

All remaining free agents with a 2021 projected WAR of 0.5 or higher, from Fangraphs' tracker- 1. RHP-Jake Odorizzi = 1.7 2. RHP-Rick Porcello = 1.7 3. RHP-Matt Shoemaker = 1.5 4. RHP-Taijuan Walker = 1.2 5. LHP-Brett Anderson = 1.2 6. OF-Jackie Bradley Jr. = 1.1 7. OF-Brett Gardner = 1.0 8. RHP-Mike Leake = 1.0 9. IF-Maikel Franco = 0.9 10. IF-Travis Shaw = 0.7 11. LHP-Cole Hamels = 0.7 12. OF-Yaisel Puig = 0.7 13. RHP-Homer Bailey = 0.7 14. C-Tyler Flowers = 0.7 15. OF-Kevin Pillar = 0.7 16. IF-Jake Lamb = 0.6 17. IF-Todd Frazier = 0.6 18. LHP-Gio Gonzalez = 0.6 19. RHP-Trevor Cahill = 0.5 20. IF-C.J. Cron = 0.5 21. RHP-Aaron Sanchez = 0.5 22. RHP-David Robertson = 0.5

The wheels on the Arenado trade have probably been moving for quite awhile. Obtaining him and keeping Wong probably pushes Tommy Edman to the bench and maybe St. Louis just wants to give him a spot. Edman was really good with the bat in 2019 (349 plate appearances) and wasn't very good with the bat in 2020 (204 plate appearances). Total it all up and Edman has been a .283/.337/.449/.786 MLB hitter. Over the last two seasons Wong has been a .279/.358/.396/.754 hitter. Wong gives an OBP advantage, Edman figures to have much more pop in the bat moving forward. So far Edman has only played 256 1/3 MLB innings at second base but has posted a +7 DRS (great, great number for the limited amount of innings) and a +8.7 UZR/150. Wong has been an average 3.7 bWAR/fWAR player over the last three years. Edman has been good for 5.0 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR over his first 576 plate appearances. If, and it's the big if, Edman can maintain a .335+ OBP, I'd feel pretty good about saying that he'll be a perfectly fine replacement for Wong.

LA might have money to burn, but if I were in that GM chair I'd be more than happy to just go with Edwin Rios considering he has a MLB slash line of .260/.338/.634/.972 so far. I wouldn't even care about bad defense if it's joined by a .972 OPS. Rios also OPS'ed .885 in AAA, .847 in AA and 1.105 in A+ ball. I wouldn't mind a Turner signing but think I would rather just go with Urias/Robertson at 3B and invest more in pitching. If Urias and Robertson flop then I'm looking at the possibility of several 3B being available at the trade deadline (Bryant, Seager, Escobar and maybe even Ramirez if the Indians aren't doing well).

I had read the same thing that reillymcshane posted. But now it appears there are two additional PTBNL inclusions, both heading to the Red Sox (one more from the Royals, one from the Mets). It did seem like the Red Sox got a bit short changed in the first reported version of the trade, these inclusions will probably pretty much even everything up.

So Winckowski gets traded from the Jays to the Mets in the Matz deal, and the Mets then trade him to the Red Sox a few months later. I pulled out the 2020 BA Prospect Handbook and Winckowski isn't listed in the Blue Jays top 30. There is a "depth chart" page for each team in there and Winckowski does appear on that list, the last of the RHSP (15 are listed). Stearns must be pulling out his hair to see some of these toolsy prospects getting traded for next to nothing. The Mets get Kahlil Lee in this deal and only have to give up Winckowski who seems to fall in the fringe prospect category. Earlier we saw Jahmai Jones get traded for Alex Cobb. Now certainly Jones stock has fallen pretty dramatically, but it was still surprising to see him get traded in a deal where the Orioles probably would have settled for a case of beer in order to shed any amount of Cobb's contract. But Lee, he won't be a superstar but it wouldn't be all that surprising to see him become an outfield version of Dee Gordon who was a useful MLB player for a number of seasons (I know Gordon played some in the outfield, but I'll always see him as a 2B). I've stated before that I see Benintendi as a big dropper and I don't like his future outlook. But throwing my personal opinion out, I had still calculated his surplus value at +11 million and the Royals getting him and some money and then giving up Lee, Cordero (who is pretty much a 0 surplus value type) and another fringe prospect (assuming the PTBNL is a fringe prospect) seems like a pretty fair swap to me. But the Mets seem to come out ahead in getting Lee and only trading away Winckowski to get him. ON PAPER, the Red Sox seem to be a loser in this one. They give up a 10+ million dollar surplus value and get a zero surplus player back (Cordero), a fringe-prospect pitcher in Winckowski and probably another fringe prospect player in the PTBNL. Maybe the PTBNL will be a higher graded guy, we'll see. It's pretty obvious that the Red Sox just don't like Benintendi's future outlook, it will be interesting to see how he does in Kansas City. One odd aspect is that the Royals seem to really be focused on pitching and defense in their rebuild, and Benintendi's outfield skills and speed really seem to be on the decline. But Winckowski becomes pretty interesting. Probably likely that the Mets acquired him with the idea that he'd be flipped later. But he was still controlled by the Mets for a short window. Is he the guy that is likely to be no good because two organizations gave up on him, or is he a really under-rated guy who is actually in demand?

Sign Choo instead. Choo Choo Choo Choo Choo

Yes, I agree completely. It's pretty annoying to see MLB make rule changes seemingly to get in step with the NFL and the NBA, and meanwhile they ignore that the other major sports have true revenue sharing that puts all markets in the same boat and also seems to be a structure that does a much better job in promoting labor peace. I would love to see to see Manfred have a townhall with a bunch of 16-year old kids from western Pennsylvania and see him try to convince them that watching the Pirates will be a rewarding use of their time.

So I thought the 26-man roster was a permanent rule? It is not? Chance they could go back to 25 in 2022?

His contract with the Tigers just might be the worst contract in MLB history. 110 million dollars and in five seasons Zimmermann totaled a 1.1 bWAR and a 5.2 fWAR. As a side note, this is another good example why I prefer bWAR over fWAR when it comes to pitchers. As a Tiger, Zimmermann had 514 1/3 innings pitched with a 5.63 ERA, 4.83 FIP, 1.44 WHIP and in 4 of those 5 seasons his xFIP was even worse than his FIP. Opposing hitters slashed .297/.338/.510/.848 against him. How in the world do these numbers add up to a full five wins over replacement stretched over 4 seasons (season #5 consisted of only 5 2/3 innings pitched)? If the Brewer use Lauer as the #5 starter and at the end of June he has a 5.63 ERA, 4.83 FIP, an even worse xFIP and hitters are slashing .267/.338/.510/.848 against him, I would fully expect him to be replaced in July. I've always rooted for Zimmermann as a home state guy and loved that he did so well with Washington. But there is nothing on the resume that makes me think he can be an effective MLB pitcher anymore. Would absolutely love to be wrong with this opinion.

What I couldn't believe is that Baseball Prospectus had Villar ranked as the 7th best baserunner in baseball in 2019. I thought that couldn't be right. So I went and checked the same stats in 2016 when Villar had his best season as a Brewer but still always looked completely lost when running the bases. In 2016 he finished #769 out of 818 players. So there is one aspect of Villar's game that has definitely improved since his time as a Brewer.

That's because the "purist" know that baseball is "boring" by today's standards and will continue to be so and would rather not have a flunky lawyer stick his fingers in there and screw up what they love about the game. Baseball is "boring" and will continue to be "boring" because before each play there are 10 guys on a huge field just standing there and when the "play" is over, the majority of the time 8 of those guys did nothing and the other 2 are in the same spot as when the play started. Maybe one out of every 4 "plays" a ball is put in play and a couple more guys move around a bit. Compare that to football where during a play a fan can see 22 guys all moving around and generally on each play there are bodies slamming into one another. Basketball has 10 guys always moving around. This is why baseball is "boring" to young fans. Hitting 4 home runs instead of 2 home runs per game isn't going to change this because the extra two home runs only last 10 seconds of a 3-hour time-frame. 14 year old's will not start tuning in because games only last 2 hours and 52 minutes when they previously went 2 hours and 58 minutes. As long as baseball is primarily 10 guys standing on a field with 80% of them doing nothing, it's quite pointless to try and tweak the game to appeal to people who get bored watching 10 guys standing on a field with 80% of them doing nothing.

Great deal for Texas IMO as they dump two years of Andrus salary and only have to take back one year of Davis salary. Scratch that, this looks pretty even after seeing the Rangers are going to send the A's 13.5 million as part of the deal.