JosephC

Nope, no interest in those. Not really interested in getting a quarterback back and would like to get some actual NFL experience at different positions in the deal. I outlined a Broncos deal I probably would do now back on page 36. Really wouldn't be interested in taking back anything less than what I proposed in that deal. If my proposal is completely unrealistic, and it just might be, then Rodgers can either play for Green Bay or do something other than NFL football. There is no way in hell I would accommodate him now and take back less than his worth after he waited until the last minute, throwing his fit right before the draft, not leaving Green Bay an appropriate amount of time to check around the league and get the best offer. IMO, the generic "1st round pick" is really over-valued in this equation as one would have to expect those picks to be late in the round.

http://metsminors.net/recap-of-mets-international-free-agency-signings/ I've found Quintana's name in a few different articles, but they are all just like the link above. Just a name in a list of names. I have found several different sites that have listed various signing bonuses handed out by the Mets, but not one reference to what Quintana got. Have to think he's a "bottom of the list" guy who didn't get much of a signing bonus.

NFL players also tend for forget those huge signing bonuses shortly after they collect them. Rodgers was actually only paid 7.29 million last year in salary and new bonus money. That could also be one of his complaints (completely forgetting about the 57 million he was paid when he signed the deal). But in 2021 his pay is no longer 7.29 million. It goes up to 22 million. If Rodgers becomes a good soldier again when training camp starts, which he very likely will, it will have a lot to do with that 22 million rather than his legacy as a Packer.

Might as well just jump to about the 7:20 mark as the beginning is typical ESPN nonsense. "A lot of this was put in motion last year and the wrench was just kind of thrown into it when I won MVP." What happened last year could be any one of a number of things, anything from Love getting drafted to Kumerow getting axed. But when he talks about a wrench getting thrown in when he won the MVP, that seems to indicate that his contract has a lot to do with this. Mahomes makes 45 million per year and Rodgers deal is at 33.5 million per year. Packers probably going to have to give him a huge raise to make him happy. Really wish he would have thrown his little fit a couple weeks before the draft, would have been much easier to deal him then because they would known exactly what they would be getting back in the 2021 Draft.

There is another article on The Athletic, written by Ken Rosenthal and Brittany Ghiroli, that describes how foreign substance use by pitchers is rampant in the game, more widespread than ever...and MLB isn't doing anything about it. https://theathletic.com/2603443/2021/05/21/what-are-we-even-doing-here-around-baseball-players-raise-concerns-about-pitchers-use-of-foreign-substances/ Some bits and pieces- “Everyone has swing-and-miss stuff from top to bottom, and it’s not because everyone got so much better in the last three years,” Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto told reporters on Wednesday. “To be honest, that stuff helps a lot. “It is getting out of hand,” said an American League pitcher, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “When you watch some of these guys from the dugout you can almost hear the ball ripping out of their hands. Guys are doing stuff now that you can’t do to a baseball with just your hand. You just can’t.” “Most players, if you go into a clubhouse and you see a pitcher putting stuff on his glove, the hitters give him a hard time but that’s it,” another AL pitcher said. “They don’t like it but they won’t stop it. They know everyone is doing it and they want to win. What good is only stopping your guy from cheating? Makes no sense.” The current enforcement is minimal, in part because umpires generally act only when prompted by managers, and managers hesitate to single out opposing pitchers when pitchers on their own staff also might be breaking the rules. The league says that before fundamentally changing the system, it needs more time to collect data from its increased monitoring and inspection efforts as well as the spin-rate analysis outlined in a March 23 memo to clubs. Those efforts might not produce tangible results until 2022, though discipline this season is possible.

Sorry if most of these numbers have already been discussed earlier in the thread. I'm just too lazy to go back and read through 8 pages. Time will tell, but at first glance I love the deal. But I will be the first to admit, I am old school in that I find relievers to generally be over-valued and history has shown that they are the easiest thing to go out and acquire leading up to the trade deadline. So yeah, if you get a quality everyday starting lineup guy for relief pitching, I'm down for that every time. Feyereisen is 28 years old, so far has 28 2/3 innings of 4.08 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 1.05 WHIP ball under his belt. The FIP is an ugly and concerning number. To me he has the look of an up-and-down reliever who will give you some good streaks and have some rough ones mixed in. Does he really look like a future closer or even A-division 8th inning guy? Nice guy to have but IMO definitely not an essential piece. Rasmussen is 25 years old, so far has 32 1/3 innings of 5.01 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 1.57 WHIP ball under his belt. The FIP is easily the best looking number of the three but it's really propped up by the strikeout numbers. On the flip side, he has walked 5.8 hitters per 9 innings and his K/BB ratio is a pretty unimpressive 2.19. Sure he could get better, but he hasn't been all that great so far and has had two significant arm injuries already. Meanwhile Adames was a 4.0 bWAR player in 2019 and is very close in age to Rasmussen. That's enough for me to make this deal every time and bank on the system (coaches and other staff) getting him back to that level. If he gets back to that level, that's 14 WAR throughout his remaining control, and even with all those Feyereisen and Rasmussen years of control...14 is a pretty big number when talking about relievers. Josh Hader closing in on 4 years and so far has been good for 8.2 bWAR. Trevor Richards is just bonus material IMO and he's been a 4.42 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 1.39 WHIP pitcher with over 300 innings and 52 starts. Has been a starter in the past but now seems to be primarily a reliever. Lifetime as a starter, 4.46 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.32 K/BB ratio [FIP not available on Baseball Reference, unfortunately]) with a slash line against of .256/.333/.438/.772. Lifetime as a reliever, 4.12 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 3.33 K/BB ratio with a slash line against of .268/.318/.382/.700. Again, just bonus material but if he maintains those numbers as a reliever then he could be a useful addition to the pen. If not, he's a decent swingman option.

Yeah, let's change more rules. As recent history has shown, rule changes are always geared to create excitement in an attempt to promote the game to younger audiences. My first suggestion would be to fire Rob Manfred.

Not suggesting that I want Rodgers to be traded, but would something like this be a reasonable deal? Denver gets- QB-Aaron Rodgers Green Bay gets- WR-Jerry Jeudy TE-Noah Fant OL-Dalton Risner LB-Josey Jewell 2022 1st round pick 2023 1st round pick Jewell is probably the only player out of his group that has hit his upside. Jeudy and Fant both former first rounders who would give the new QB (Love or otherwise) a couple young targets with upside to throw to. Risner fits at either guard spot or right tackle, so far has 32 starts and I think all of them have been at LG (too lazy to go back and confirm). Jewell is an unspectacular but solid starting linebacker, the oldest of these players but is still only 26 years old. Jewell is only under contract for one more season, the other three are controlled for at least two more seasons. When looking at player performance, contract, length of control and potential upside, I'm guessing the Broncos have Bradley Chubb and Justin Simmons as the top two players they would not want to deal (certainly could be easily debated). But if so, the Broncos keep their top two in this trade, which when trading for a stellar player the quality of Rodgers, IMO makes this a fair deal from their end.

Urias is now up to 349 MLB plate appearances against right-handed pitching and the slash line sits at .186/.298/.275/.573. It's been better this season but is still only at .198/.309/.358/.667. Have to start having some serious doubts. I just look at the lineup and historical performance and it sure looks like Yelich might have to come back and be a 1.000+ OPS guy to save this offense. When looking at upside/downside...I just don't see a big upward move with the players currently on the 40-man roster. Bradley will definitely be better, but a big bump in his performance will likely be offset by the coming back to earth of Narvaez who isn't finishing the season with a .443 OBP and .972 OPS. Shaw, I think the .313 OBP/.720 OPS is probably right about the player he is now. Garcia's .344 OBP is probably a little on the high side but the OPS is just about at the career mark (.749 versus .746). It's looking like Cain's 2019 season was not a fluke outlier. It sure seems like Hiura is in for a LONG trip to the minors. Vogelbach could go on a hot streak....if he doesn't get released first. Looking at the rest of the 40-man roster and I sure as heck don't see a July callup that is going to get here and set the world on fire. If the Brewers are counting on Derek Fisher to save the team, then the team has problems.

If the team falls to a 90+ loss team, then I think you have to explore the possibility of trading one or both of them. But I don't see this being a 90 loss team in the near future. I wouldn't look to deal either of these players until after the 2022 season, when each of them would only have two years of team control remaining. Almost have to think that if you are completely unwilling to give a pitcher a 100+ million dollar contract, that you have to at least explore dealing them at that time. Long term plan, I probably would trade one of them after 2022 and the other after 2023. Obviously a lot can change with injuries or the performance of the team. But if the Brewers are performing in the 80-86 win department over the next couple of seasons, that would be the plan.

And batting cleanup against left handed pitchers. And yes, all joking aside, I bet Counsell is delighted with this move and can't wait to get him back on the 26-man roster.

Is Edwin Encarnacion still unemployed. They should just sign him if available. Terrible last year, but an .855 OPS from 2017-2019. Horrible defensively but Stearns is obviously willing to live with that considering the team started the year with Hiura and Vogelbach on the roster.

The real benefit would be that he could teach the ignorant Brewers the RIGHT WAY to play the game!

They definitely shouldn’t be extending Woodruff and even extending Burnes is just asking for trouble...so can’t say this deal stopping those from happening (if that is what you are inferring) is a bad thing. Just look at Jordan Zimmerman. He got big time money and instantly turned into a replacement level pitcher. We just don’t need to be throwing big money around. What's the biggest investment Stearns has made for a pitcher so far? Drafting Ethan Small very late in round one? Trading a 1A pick for Alex Claudio? The very reasonable extension given to Freddy Peralta? What's the biggest splash he's made for pitching in the trade market? Maybe Dubon for Pomeranz and Black? There certainly have been no big splash moves when it comes to free agent pitching. Heck, this is a guy that, seemingly all of a sudden, started listening to offers for Josh Hader when it was determined he'd be Super Two. If Stearns has shown one strong tendency during his time with Milwaukee, it's that he doesn't like to make big investments in pitching. Woodruff and/or Burnes just might be the guy that causes Stearns to break that tendency. But I'll only believe that when I see it actually happen. Stearns isn't a new guy here anymore. There is a pretty decent track record now.

A fair point, but because of the salary cap everything they trade for is probably going to have to be future picks. They can't take on any salary without restructuring or trading Adams, and will Adams restructure if he knows Rodgers is gone? That being said... the picks they could get for Rodgers and Adams would be quite a haul. I've found OverTheCap to be pretty accurate with the numbers they post. https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/ Using the drop down menu in the header of the of the Dead Money & Cap Savings column, it indicates that trading Rodgers after June 1st clears 22.85 million off the Packers salary cap. I'm not saying that's completely accurate because I haven't cranked the numbers myself, but it does demonstrate the Packers might not have their hands tied in picking up some young, quality players in a Rodgers trade. If I were in Gutekunst's shoes, I just can't imagine trading Rodgers for something like two first round picks, a second round pick, a third round pick and maybe a couple day three picks when there is a good chance that both first rounders would be in the 20's or 30's. No thanks. Now if a deal had been made prior to the draft and the first round pick in this year's draft was...say #8...that changes things and makes the scenario a maybe depending on what other picks are involved. Now that we are beyond the draft, I think the only way that I would consider dealing Rodgers was if it included not only two first round picks but also a fairly attractive package of players as well.

I haven't been following this situation, but how tradeable is Farve now from the Packer's perspective? To me, it seems as if he really wanted out of Green Bay, he was beyond foolish to wait until they were pushed right up to the draft so the Packers had limited time to field and assess trade offers. Wouldn't it have made more sense for Rodgers to do it two weeks out, giving the Packers ample time to work through deals and find one that was the best to their liking? As already brought up by brwrsfan a few posts ago, there is so much uncertainty with where a Rodger's led team will be picking next season that IMO it makes it very difficult for the Packers to make a deal at this point. I'd go as far as saying that I'd prefer it if the Packers traded Rodgers. But from a value perspective, I'm even less interested in trading Rodgers if the return looks to be two late first round picks, an average NFL starting player and a bandage quarterback. If that is my option, I'd tell Rodgers he can sit on his rear for a year if he wants and I'd just take my chances on the trade market next off-season when at least I know exactly where the initial draft pick will be.

BaseballTradeValues now has the Yelich contract valued at -53.2 million dollars. According to their numbers, this currently sits as the 9th worst contract. That happened a lot sooner than I was expecting. Should have traded him this off-season if the opportunity was there.

It could be worse. According to MLB.com's numbers, Brewer 1B are batting .183/.276/.330/.607 so far this season. Believe it or not, the .607 OPS ranks them 23rd. It gives me great pleasure to report that the Yankees sit dead last in 1B OPS. .151/.250/.264/.514.

The Brewers have to be extremely concerned with Hiura's swing-and-miss rate on pitches within the strike zone. Last year Hiura only made contact on 67.9% of his swings on pitches within the strike zone, which was the worst percentage among qualifiers. This year the number has dropped to 58.1%, by far the worst percentage for players with at least 80 plate appearances (next worst is Joey Gallo at 64.7%). I don't know the correlation between future MLB success and swing-and-miss statistics on pitches within the strike zone. But it seems like over the last few years, whenever I read a quote from a scout that doubted Corey Ray's future, the swing-and-miss at strikes factor was always the first thing that has been mentioned. May be hard to fix that "hole in the bat." Pretty amazing how Hiura has spiraled down after getting off to such a great start in 2019. So strange that he was tearing it up, and the Brewers did subtract offense at the time by playing the Super Two game with him...now fast forward two years and Hiura is heading back to MiLB anyway.

I'm a huge fan of Lindor, but when looking at the numbers, is he a 34+ million player per season over this length of time? Lindor bWAR = 2017=5.7 // 2018=7.2 // 2019=4.8 // 2020 (pro-rated to a full season) = 3.2 Lindor fWAR = 2017=5.7 // 2018=7.7 // 2019=4.5 // 2020 (pro-rated for a full season) = 4.9 Over the last four seasons he's an average 5.5 WAR player. I felt it necessary to add the fourth year because of last year's abnormal status. So let's look at Mookie Betts during the three seasons prior to signing his big contract. Betts bWAR = 2017=6.4 // 2018=10.7 // 2019=7.3 Betts fWAR = 2017=5.3 // 2019=10.4 // 2019=6.6 On average, a 7.8 WAR player. That's a significant difference between him and Lindor. No significant difference in age either, last year was Betts age 27 season and this upcoming year will be Lindor's age 27 season. Lindor is closer to the Anthony Rendon level of player (3 seasons prior to signing his deal was 2017-2019)- Rendon bWAR = 2017=6.1 // 2018=5.1 // 2019=7.2 Rendon fWAR = 2017=6.7 // 2018=6.2 // 2019=7.0 On average, a 6.4 WAR player, nearly a full win higher than Lindor. There is a big difference here in that Rendon was going into his age 30 season whereas Lindor is only going into his age 27 season. So Rendon got 3 fewer years, but the yearly average value of Rendon's deal was just slightly higher (35 million per year). I was really surprised when looking at these numbers. I just assumed there was Mike Trout, and then Lindor was in that 2nd class of players behind Trout that included players like Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich. But the WAR values clearly show that Lindor is not in that group of players. In fact, when I go back and do the 4-year numbers on Cleveland's "other infielder," Jose Ramirez average WAR from 2017-2020 is 6.4, again nearly a full win higher than Lindor. 2021 will be Ramirez age 28 season.

Pre-Easter hysteria from the ruling class. Nothing more. We've been through this song-and-dance before and I suspect this will happen prior to every holiday for the next year or two. As has been shown by the SCIENCE, getting 12 people together from 3 different households carries the substantial risks of causing a global surge. However, piling 50 people from 50 different households into 1 workplace carries virtually no risk (especially if the revenue the worker generates contributes to some CEO's 3 million dollar salary).

According to Baseball Reference, Hoerner has 1 year and 21 days of service time. Even if he's just an average player, pretty much every organization would not want to lose a year of service time because of the extra 21 days. Only question is if they also want to avoid Super Two status as well, if that's the case Hoerner is probably stuck in the minors until late June even if he starts racking in the minors. All that aside, he hasn't been that great in the majors and the combination of Bote and Sogard isn't unreasonable to go with. Bote is no offensive super-star but he doesn't need to be in an infield with Rizzo, Bryant and Baez. I still like that lineup, but their pitching appears to be sorely lacking.

Settle always got a lot of unnecessary crap from the fanbase as he wasn't much of a recruiter. But there is no question the man is a great, great coach and was a really good influence on the team. He sure took a lot of 3-star recruits and really coached them up. Not just the big-name tailbacks, it also applies to players like Alec Ingold. I'm very sorry to see him go.

Looking at the White Sox roster, and I feel they absolutely need to make a move for another outfielder. I don't think Garcia makes sense at all. On average, FGDC, Steamer, ZiPS are projecting him as a 400 plate appearances/0.4 WAR player in 2021. Increase the plate appearances to an everyday player that doesn't get injured, and I'm guessing pretty much all MLB teams would put a surplus value on him of about -7 million. Brewers pick up the buyout for 2022 and Garcia still has -5 million in surplus value. Reasonable expectation in a Garcia deal would be the Brewers send Garcia and a significant amount of money (>3 million, could take up to 7 million) and all they would probably get back is one non-top 30 lottery ticket type prospect. If the cash is less than what I suggest then cross off the lottery ticket type prospect and downgrade it to an organizational filler type (in terms of the Brewer's system, someone like Bubba Derby). So for the folks above that suggested the Brewers are just better keeping Garcia for depth and an insurance policy, I agree with those people 100%. I have Cain with a -7.1 million in surplus value. And does Reinsdorf really want to add Cain's salary? Very doubtful IMO. I think the Brewers probably need to add at least 10 million dollars to make the trade happen and still get nothing back for the return. 2021 budget is pretty much done. Cain gets 18 million in 2022 but if the Brewers eat 10 million of that, is the additional 8 million of available money worth losing 2 seasons of Cain's performance? Time will tell on that.

I'm certainly not freaking out. I think Hiura will hit over the long haul. But it is interesting to look back at all the Corey Ray projections over the last few years and then look at what Hiura has become. By far, the biggest knock on Ray as far as his future projection is how often he swings and misses at pitches within the strike zone, not his overall batting average or on-base percentage, it seems the stat guys always specifically point out his swings-and-misses that occur on pitches within the zone. I have no clue as to the correlation between that number and success as a professional baseball hitter, but I'm guessing there must be some truth to it because it gets brought up a lot. According to Fangraph's database, there were 142 qualifying hitters in MLB in 2020. Hiura's contact percentage on pitches within the strike zone was 67.9%. That ranked 142 out of 142, dead last. So I'm not really surprised to see this Wong with a better wRC+ in 2021 prediction. Based on what the stat guys have said in the past, I would expect to see a lot more predictions like this.