JosephC

OK, now do a list of prospects they have traded while they still had prospect status ... I'm looking through the Braves transactions now. And you know what, there aren't very many top guys they have traded away. But you know what else? The Braves just haven't been involved in very many high profile trades over the last few years. I wonder why that is? Probably because their minor league system has been so good over the last decade plus that the team doesn't have to make those high profile trades. After all, even the most motivated trader isn't going to deal away any notable prospects when you are trading for the likes of- Tommy Malone Anthony Swarzak Chris Martin Shane Greene Mark Melancon (big contract) Justin Kelly Charlie Culberson, Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy (in a Matt Kemp swap with the Dodgers that was a big crap contract exchange) Preston Tucker Shane Carle Ryan Schimpf Carlos Perez Jonny Venters Brad Brach Adam Duvall Kevin Gausman/Darren O'Day (the Orioles were hot to dump O'Day's contract and Gausman's was running at a 4.60 ERA and 4.52 FIP over his last 55 starts) Alex Jackson Tyler Pike Jamie Garcia (way past his prime) Luke Jackson Thomas Burrows Luiz Gohara Micah Johnson Brandon Phillips (way past his prime) Kevin Franklin Danny Santana Matt Adams Huascar Ynoa Connor Joe Tony Sanchez Justin Kelly Erick Aybar, Chris Ellis, Sean Newcomb (list these three together because here is where the Braves traded away Simmons) Ian Krol Gabe Speier Jose Ramirez (the pitcher) Then there was the big trade where they got Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair for Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier, probably the last real high profile trade the Braves made that wasn't motivated by contracts and that was on December 9, 2015. And that's where I stop listing every big-time, high-profile player they've acquired by trade while continuing to horde all their own prospects. Yeah, they haven't traded away a young Ronald Acuna, but they haven't been on the markets buying the Christian Yeliches because they don't need to. But even going further back....they traded away Jason Heyward in the deal where they picked up Shelby Miller...they traded away Kimbrel in the deal where they picked up Cameron Maybin (Maybin was still considered an upside "maybe" at the time). Back 7 years and still looking for that opportunity where they could have traded away a big-time prospect and I haven't found it yet. Maybe they should save face by trading Christian Pache and Drew Waters to the Cubs for Zach Davies.

Word around Madison is that Leonhard wants to be a head coach and career decisions he will make will all be towards achieving that goal. People see an NFL coordinating job as some sort of big step but it might not be with all the other factors that figure in the mix. He goes to Green Bay and the quarterback gets big money and that could directly affect what he has to work with on the defense. He goes to Green Bay and the QB tears an ACL in week one and the team sucks and that makes the whole team look bad. In Madison the head coach lets him do what he wants and he doesn't have to worry about a miscommunication where "two-man" is said but "man" is heard and when that happens the defensive coordinator is the one that looks bad. UW has a really solid system in place with the system/recruiting and Leonhard is 100% on the same page as the head coach and the athletic director. He likely feels good that if he stays in Madison that the team and his defense will continue to have success and he won't get sabotaged by stepping in a different situation where there are numerous things that have to be dealt with that would be completely outside of his control.

Some Braves prospect listing in the top 5 of the organizational list in Baseball Reference Prospect Handbook's since 2008 Career bWAR Jason Heyward = 38.4 Freddie Freeman = 38.8 Julio Teheran = 19.4 Mike Minor = 17.8 Craig Kimbrel = 19.4 Andrelton Simmons = 36.8 Ozzie Albies = 11.7 (already 1 All-Star appearances and 1 Silver Slugger which happened in different seasons) Mike Soroka = 5.7 (one All-Star appearance and 6th place finish in Cy Young voting) Ronald Acuna = 12.1 (already 3 finishes in the top 12 of MVP voting) That's just picking guys out of the top 5, looking down the list one finds a bunch more guys who have become solid MLB players like Alex Wood, Nick Ahmed, Tommy La Stella. And then there are a few more names that look good but it's too early to tell, one example being Ian Anderson.

Oh man, I just love Choo. He was a great player and I remember one series the Brewers played against the Indians where Choo looked like a one-man wrecking crew. Unfortunately it appears that his defensive skills have eroded to the point where he shouldn't be in the field at all. His performance really fell off with the bat last year as well. I wouldn't be all that shocked if Choo would post something like a .260/.340/.420/.760 next year but how much is that really worth when adding in a big negative for the fielding? I'm sure this will irritate a lot of people, but here goes. Other than the lefty bat/righty bat factor, signing Choo is probably pretty similar to signing Braun. And if I had to pick between the two, I would go with Choo simply on the basis that I find him much more likable than I do Braun.

Top free agent starting pitchers available, by projected WAR, using Fangraphs tracker- 1. Trevor Bauer (3.8) 2. James Paxton (2.1) 3. Rick Porcello (1.8) 4. Jake Odorizzi (1.7) 5. Matt Shoemaker (1.5) 6. Taijuan Walker (1.2) 7. Brett Anderson (1.2) 8. Rich Hill (1.0) 9. Mike Leake (1.0) 10. Jake Arrieta (0.9) 11. Cole Hamels (0.7) 12. Homer Bailey (0.7) 13. Gio Gonzalez (0.6) 14. Trevor Cahill (0.5) 15. Aaron Sanchez (0.5)

Barry has been grooming Chris McIntosh to be the next AD, and it's pretty likely that will eventually happen unless someone else with power derails it (someone from outside the department). I don't see Chryst becoming the next AD. Chances are pretty good that Leonhard leaves within the next couple of years but it sure wouldn't be that surprising if he eventually found his way back to Madison as the head coach when the job does open up.

Hiura is playing 1B with Vogelbach likely getting some starts against tough righties. Wong is at 2B pretty much everyday. Arcia at shortstop. Stearns paid a good bit for Urias and I very much doubt that he is just going to toss him aside. I think Urias is the 3B and will be given every opportunity to stick in the starting lineup everyday...Robertson is the fallback plan if Urias fails. I think all the Brewers remaining money will go towards picking up one more starting pitcher.

I think Hill will still be very good when he pitches but how much he pitches is a real limiting factor. He's now 40. He hasn't gotten to 140 innings in a season since 2007. Remarkably hit 130 innings in 2017 and 2018 but that seems like the longest of long-shots now. Last year he averaged under 5 innings per start and only threw 77 pitches per game. If they worked out some type of deal where he could come down with a mystery injury for 4 months and spend that time on the DL, and then would be fresh starting the month of August...that almost seems like it would be an ideal situation.

After listening to a Silverstein podcast at jsonline, one would have to think that the favorites for the job are Ejiro Evero (Rams safety coach) or Joe Barry (Rams linebacker coach). Jerry Gray also in the mix. I've always had the impression that the NFL coaching ranks are largely built on a buddy-buddy system, where coaches seem to love to hire guys they've worked with in the past. That gives Evero and Barry a possible advantage because LaFleur has worked on the same staff as those guys (not an advantage over Gray, but over Leonhard and a bunch of candidates not mentioned). The Rams run Vic Fangio's defense. Silverstein points out that Leonhard played under Pettine and uses a lot of that in his defense, so it's pretty likely the Packers would just keep doing the same thing on defense if Leonhard was hired. I think I prefer Evero. Seems like a bright guy who has been doing this a long time and has an impressive resume. The fact that he's already spent some time in Green Bay doesn't hurt his chances. https://www.therams.com/team/coaches-roster/ejiro-evero

It's worth noting that on January 31 the BaseballTradeValue's site has Ramirez as having +72.8 million in surplus value. I just looked at their site and they've up'ed it to +81.3 million. So clearly the Ramirez talk made them circle back and re-do the math on him. I have him at +93, so now if you take the average between my number and their number it's move up from +82.9 million to +87.15 million. I'll amend my earlier proposal and suggest that Hiura + Garrett Mitchell + Ethan Small + Luis Medina + Nick Kahle would be a pretty fair deal. I wouldn't do any of these deals as I hate the idea of selling low on Hiura.

Trading Hiura now seems like it would be an awful sell low move. Pro-rate his 114 days of service time in 2019 to a full season, and pro-rate 2020 to a full season, and he was a +3.2 bWAR/fWAR player in 2019 but fell to a -0.3 bWAR/fWAR player in 2020. Right now it's probably safe to say a good chunk of the league view him as a 1.5-2 WAR player per season, I think his value really goes up with another strong year with the bat and getting his awful defense off of second base. I'd put Hiura's surplus value at +47.6 and the BaseballTradeValues site has him at +42.4, so we are pretty close. I have Jose Ramirez's surplus value at +93 million. Average my number and BaseballTradeValues number and his surplus value is +82.9 million. That's probably a pretty fair number. I'd put Hiura + Small + Feliciano at +66.3 so it's getting close to being enough for Ramirez, but I still think it falls short. I think Hiura + Garrett Mitchell + Ethan Small + Luis Medina would be a pretty fair deal.

I like the signing. Top of the order type hitter with plus-plus defense. Could be a huge run saver considering he's replacing one of the worst fielding second basemen in the game. I'm not going to read back through all 10 pages. I'm sure someone has probably mentioned this. But maybe the best part of this is that Wong will come in and teach the Brewer players how to play the game the right way!

The word around Madison is that Leonhard's goal is to be a head coach. And that's pretty much at any "level" in Division 1-A football or up. It's very likely that he would leave his spot at Wisconsin to take a head coaching job at Bowling Green and then try and work his way up the ranks. It's thought that he would be unlikely to take any other college defensive coordinator position. He did interview for the Florida State defensive coordinator job but speculation was that it was just for show to cement his coaching credentials in the national spotlight. However, there hasn't been much talk about what he would do if offered an NFL defensive coordinator job. But ultimately, any decision he makes will probably be centered around his advancement towards a head coaching position. Either way, I don't think he's going to be in Wisconsin for that much longer since that head coaching position probably happens within the next couple of years.

What, no talk about the big Alex Cobb trade?

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2021/02/02/brewers-budget-limits-big-offseason-signings-deals/4352348001/ While Haudricourt has no scoops on any rumors, there is this. Perhaps I should put this on the 2021 Pessimism thread If the Brewers did lose 70-90 million last year, they are likely to lose money again this year and we could be looking at several upcoming seasons with a payroll of 80 million. Big question is will pretty much every team in the league cut payroll by 20% over the next few seasons as well? Also very interesting to see that Stearns is talking about Hiura playing first base. Probably a pretty decent bet that if Hiura doesn't show any improvement with the glove this year, that he'll be moving to 1B in 2022. Really wouldn't be all that surprising to see him get some starts here and there this year considering Vogelbach can't hit lefty pitching at all. Wouldn't be all that surprised to see Vogelbach (1B)-Hiura (2B)-Urias (3B) against righties and Hiura (1B) - Urias (2B) - Robertson (3B) against lefties.

Stearns comment is only likely to upset more fans if the signings between now and Opening Day end up being players that project as 1 WAR (or less) players. He might have been better off trying to hype up what they have instead. "Narvaez showed remarkable progress with his defense last year, and we really believe 2020 was a complete outlier in terms of his offense. Vogelbach did a nice job after he got to Milwaukee and he was an All-Star just a couple years ago. Urias is former top 30 prospect and we believe he's going to be a good player. Rasmussen and Topa did a pretty nice job for us last year, we think we have a chance to have one of the league's best bullpens this year (can't use that one if he plans to trade Hader, but I don't think he will)."

With recent rumors linking the Reds to Tampa's shortstop Willy Adames, could be a fun three-way deal that sends Hader to Tampa and nets Jonathan India in return. Not sure how keen the Reds would be on dealing him, especially to a division rival. India can also play second, but they're pretty loaded long-term there with Suarez and Moose (and I think Senzel can handle second as well). Keith Law had India at 88 in his top 100 he released the other day, and said he looked good at the off-site last year after a rough 2019. MLB didn't have him in the top 100, but did have him as the #9 third base prospect. I'm not always sure how these 3-team trades work, but just to piggy-back off your thoughts - would these possibly work out: Brewers get: Mike Brosseau Shane Baz Jonathan India Rays get: Josh Hader Reds get: Willy Adames My gut says that the Rays are giving up too much here, and the Reds may need to send a player to the Rays in this deal to make it happen? That would be a horrible deal for Tampa Bay. Adames has emerged and looks like a solid 3+ WAR per season player moving forward. So they give up him, a top 100 prospect in Baz and Brosseau and all they get back is Hader? The Reds would make out like bandits on this one. I have the package going to the Brewers being worth about +42.8 million, and would have Hader's value at about 10 million less than that. If the Brewers threw in Feliciano to the Rays, it would make it even from the Brewer's perspective....about 42/43 million coming to them, about 42/43 million going away from them. Then the Rays would have to get a couple significant pieces from the Reds because that is the really lop-sided aspect of this proposal.

Without going through all the math, I'd guess Arenado had something like -20 to -30 million in surplus value. So since the Rockies sent about 50 million to the Cardinals, I would have expected the package of players they got back to be worth about 20-30 million in surplus value. Montero is a pretty interesting prospect. Kind of a "middle profile" signing that worked his way to legitimate top 100 status only to get downgraded after a rough first-go at AA. He was only 20. Sounds like he has a good all around bat with some power that might also hit for average. I think he's probably the jewel of this return and is a guy who is worth watching. Gomber just comes off as another guy to me. Had sparkling run prevention numbers last year but was probably really lucky when looking at the BABIP and HR/FB% numbers. Locey and Gil look like pretty solid role-player type prospects and Sommers is a fringe guy. Worth noting that Sommers is Wisconsin-born and attended Wisconsin-Milwaukee. I'd put the surplus value of the five players heading to Colorado at +28.1 million, it seems like a solid return when looking at the full context of this trade.

I will agree with you on that point if that is the way the Brewers run it. I am under the impression that most teams don't do this, but those responsibilities still lie with the Minor League Director (or whatever fancy title they now have for Minor League Director). But I could be wrong, and this might be the new normal with teams reshuffling titles and responsibilities. Doesn't seem appropriate that a 27 year old with a pretty limited resume would have authority over minor league hitting instructors.

Not really. When these positions pop up, it's rather normal that Fangraphs posts a link. I often go and read them. Minor League hitting coordinators are no longer "a second set of experienced eyes" to help hitting instructors, it's very much become a "attached sensors to hitters, collect data, compile data and let's see if we can identify flaws using all the available technology available" position.

I think we will get a couple moves this week. Probably sign a couple infielders like Jedd Gyorko and Greg Garcia. I get Gyorko, but why Garcia? I don't see anything in his numbers that indicates he isn't anything other than another perhaps less versatile Jace Peterson. I'm not a fan of Garcia at all, but I could see the Brewers signing him for these reasons- 1) Plenty of veteran grit 2) Lefty bat that could platoon at 3B with Gyorko (if signed) if Urias continues to not hit 3) Solid late inning defensive replacement for Hiura at 2B 4) .337 MLB OBP since the beginning of 2018 5) Most importantly, is a warm body who will be dirt cheap

I mean, cool and all, but how is this “well deserved”? Yeah, she's 27. Is this a position that normally goes to 27-year olds? The Brewers need all the help they can get when it comes to player development, so I hope she's good at what she does. It just seems risky to put someone so young into a position of authority. You'd think the person who will be the hitting instructors' boss would have spent quite a few years as a hitting instructor. I don't think this position, as it exists today, has any type of supervisory role in terms of hitting instructors. I think these are the people who manage technology and collect that data. In other words, hooking up sensors to players and performing measurements (launch angle, etc), then presenting the data to hitting instructors and collaborating with the player and hitting instructor to try and improve the player's performance. Years ago this position just seemed to be roving hitting instructor who would provide another set of eyes and maybe diagnose something a hitting instructor wasn't seeing. Maybe some teams still do it that way but I'd bet the majority don't. It is very much a technology and data driven position. Looking at Goodrum's background, it's almost a guarantee that this is what she will be doing. She'll probably have a couple of interns working under her in terms of data handling, but I don't think she will be the boss of any of the minor league instructors.

I think we will get a couple moves this week. Probably sign a couple infielders like Jedd Gyorko and Greg Garcia.

Arenado had 200 million remaining on his deal. Ramirez has 9 million + a 2 million buyout...but if the buyout is not exercised then it's a 3 year, 33 million dollar commitment. Unlike Arenado, this is a super bargain deal with further insurance that a team can walk away if he suffers a catastrophic injury during the 2021 season. If one pro-rates 2020 to a full season, Ramirez has posted an average seasonal bWAR/fWAR of 6.4 from 2018-2020. It's very safe to project him as a being worth 14 WAR over the next three season. I'd put his surplus value at +93 million. The BaseballTradeValues site has it at +72.8 million. If one were to split the difference, that's +82.9 million. The BaseballTradeValues site has the Brewer's top 5 prospects as Turang, Mitchell, Feliciano, Perez, Garcia and has their combined surplus value being +64.9 million. I'd list the Brewer's top 5 prospects as Turang, Mitchell, Small, Feliciano and Ashby and would put their combined surplus value at +71.4 million. When that author at Reviewing The Brew says the Brewers need to trade for Ramirez, he either better be willing to give up most of the minor league system OR start with Corbin Burnes and then figure what he needs to add on top of that. Ramirez carries a huge premium. 6.4 bWAR/fWAR over the previous three seasons. Just for some perspective, Christian Yelich has averaged a 5.8 bWAR/fWAR over the same time-frame.

THAT'S WHAT I WAS GOING TO SAY!