JosephC

Gutekunst had no problem taking Savage with the #21 pick and he was probably considered no better than 4th/5th round prior to the combine. Kevin King was considered a late third/early fourth rounder prior to the combine and had a late first/early second round grade after the combine. GM-speak says they "take the best player" but it's been pretty obvious over the last few years that the current NFL puts about 80% of a prospects grade in the workout numbers and about 20% of their grade on the actual film. I suspect that has more and more to do with coaches seemingly having a larger say in most organizations, and coaches always want athletes because they think that they have that magic touch and can "coach them up." I think with the WR's it's probably Lamb, Jeudy and Ruggs as the first three and then a pack of about 7 guys that will all go in the #20-#60 range and those guys could go in just about any order. Mims is in that group and it's not crazy to see him as the 4th best WR in the draft or the 10th best wide receiver in the draft. I can see where Packer fans would be scared of Mims as his pluses and minuses look somewhat similar to Valdes-Scantling....tall fast guy that can make some plays down the field but that might be all he can do. Of course if he ends up like Randy Moss and seemingly makes 3 or 4 big plays down the field just about every game then you really don't care if he has other deficiencies. But if the big play only happens once every four games then you have a bust on your hands. I kind of like Justin Jefferson the best out of that group, but I'm probably biased because I watched him make a mockery of that Oklahoma defense and that might not be the best gauge to use. I just like him because he seemed pretty quick and efficient with his movements...the one big knock was his speed and then he ran a 4.43 at Indy....so his speed is actually pretty good. Jefferson probably does have a lower ceiling than most of the guys in that group after the first three, but he probably also has the highest floor. That said, the other thing GM's always say is that they always take the best player and don't draft on need...but when I look at the Packer's roster to me it looks more and more like ILB is the biggest need and that is probably where they go with pick #1.

https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/ April 18 - Mets 5, Brewers 3 Now at 12-9, the Brewers hold a 1 1/2 game lead over the Cubs and Cardinals (both at 10-10). Big news is that Corey Knebel started his rehab assignment today. Probably will see him pretty quick as the bullpen needs some help (12th in the NL in ERA). Claudio blew today's game. Came in to the game with 1 out, runners on first and second and allowed both those runners to score and then one more that he put on base. Suter's first inning woes continue. He's allowed 15 runs total so far, but 9 of those have come in the first inning. Phelps had allowed 75% of his inherited runners to score, but today he came into the 6th with 2 outs, 2 on and got the final out without allowing a run. Another frequent target of my displeasure, Freitas, had a run scoring single in the second and a run scoring double in the sixth and was the best offensive player for the Brewers. Garcia drew his first walk of the season...in his 79th plate appearance. In other league news, Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu tore a hamstring and will miss 3 months. [attachment=2]4_18_game summary.jpg[/attachment] [attachment=1]4_18_hitters.jpg[/attachment] [attachment=0]4_18_pitchers.jpg[/attachment]

This post was no good without complete trade details!

https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/ April 17 - Mets 2, Brewers 1 Former first round pick David Peterson makes his major league debut and baffles Brewer hitters for 6 1/3 innings. Brewers only run comes on a little Cain squib hit in front of the plate which the catcher proceeded to field and then throw into right field, a two base error that put Cain at 2B. He eventually scored on a Yelich single. A great start by Woodruff wasted. [attachment=2]4_17_game summary.jpg[/attachment] [attachment=1]4_17_hitters.jpg[/attachment] [attachment=0]4_17_pitchers.jpg[/attachment]

Here is what happened in the 7th inning of the 4-16 game: Start of 7th inning Peralta pitching Knapp base on balls Bruce base on balls Burnes comes in (0 outs, runners on 1st and 2nd) Segura strikes out swinging Hoskins base on balls Harper singles, Knapp scores Phelps comes in (1 out, bases loaded) Gregorius doubles, Bruce, Hoskins and Harper all score So Burnes has the ugly 7.11 ERA (and he's not pitched well), but Phelps was really the bullpen goat of the game. Phelps 2.08 ERA is very misleading...his WHIP is 1.85 and he has allowed 9 of 12 inherited runners to score.

https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/ April 16- Brewers 7, Phillies 5 (12 innings) Arcia with a pinch-hit 2-run home run in the bottom of the 12th to win it for Milwaukee. It's not like Arcia is hitting .300, but he's been clutch, clutch, clutch so far in this sim. Dare I say, if this was really happening, the majority of Brewer fans would be demanding Arcia be put back in the starting lineup and Urias sent back to AAA for more seasoning. Note that there were 44 strikeouts + walks in this game which was very noticeable when watching the sim. On other league news, Astro outfielder George Springer broke an ankle and will be out 4-5 months. [attachment=2]4_16_game summary.jpg[/attachment] [attachment=1]4_16_hitters.jpg[/attachment] [attachment=0]4_16_pitchers.jpg[/attachment]

https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/ April 15 - Phillies 4, Brewers 3 (10 innings) Urias and Sogard have once again been flipped in the primary lineup, so now Urias is #2 and Sogard is #8. A bit surprising as Urias has been pretty bad lately, and after today's game he is down to a .132/.283/.263/.546 slash line. This game was all about Bryce Harper and Justin Smoak. Each player had a 2-run home run and a solo home run. The quad injury that Smoak suffered yesterday was not a problem in this game. Smoak now leads the Brewers in both OBP and SLG. His slash line is up to .294/.410/.627/1.037. The Phillies loaded the bases in the first off Houser but he was able to wiggle out of it without surrendering a run. He cruised through the next three innings but then gave up a 3-spot in the fifth inning. Lindblom gave up a home run to Harper in the 10th to take the loss. Other than that, it was an impressive bullpen performance for the Brewers, which is encouraging because they had a truly awful stretch about a week ago. Brewers might have some good luck in this sim, as the rest of the division is looking bad. Only 10% of the way through the season, but there is little doubt to this point that the NL Central is the worst division in baseball. [attachment=0]4_15_standings.jpg[/attachment] [attachment=3]4_15_game summary.jpg[/attachment] [attachment=2]4_15_hitters.jpg[/attachment] [attachment=1]4_15_pitchers.jpg[/attachment]

https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/ April 14 - Brewers 4, Phillies 2 Another win for the Brewers. Now up to 11-6. The surprising Orioles (10-7) beat the Cubs 4-2, giving the Brewers a 2 1/2 game lead in the division. Only the Dodgers (12-5) have a better winning percentage in the NL. Justin Smoak suffered a quadriceps strain while running the bases. Odd injury report as he's listed as day-to-day but a really long recovery time of 6 weeks. No word on if he is headed to the DL. Corey Knebel's injured time left is down to 3 days, so he'll probably be put on a rehab assignment at the end of the week. Brock Holt's DL time has expired but he is still listed as having a sprained wrist with an unknown recovery time. Manny Pina has cleared waivers and been assigned to San Antonio. Really wish he would have stayed on the major league roster as Freitas is down to a puny .148/.233/.333/.567. [attachment=2]4_14_game summary.jpg[/attachment] [attachment=1]4_14_hitters.jpg[/attachment] [attachment=0]4_14_pitchers.jpg[/attachment]

https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/ April 13 - Brewers 7, Phillies 5 (11 innings) Keston Hiura hit a 2-run walk-off homer in the 11th inning to win it for the Brewers. He also had a 2-run home run in the 1st inning. Christian Yelich hit a 2-run homer in the 5th inning. The starting pitching was bad in this ballgame. Zack Wheeler started the year with 2 excellent starts, then a so-so start, then this start which was rather unimpressive. Suter was nothing special either, but somehow the Brewer's pen accounted for 6 1/3 innings of 0 hit, 0 run, 1 walk baseball. Brewers now 10-6 with a 1 1/2 game lead over the Cubs. In other league news, Jacob deGrom has bone chips in his elbow and will miss at least 3 months. [attachment=2]4_13_game summary.jpg[/attachment] [attachment=1]4_13_hitters.jpg[/attachment] [attachment=0]4_13_pitchers.jpg[/attachment]

https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/ April 12 - Brewers 6, Mets 3 There's been an adjustment made to the primary lineup. Eric Sogard has been flipped spots with Luis Urias, so now Sogard is the #2 hitter and Urias is the #8 hitter. Today's game figured to be a pitching duel as it matched Woodruff and deGrom. deGrom gave up two runs in the first, a single by Hiura that knocked in Cain and then a double by Garcia that knocked in Hiura. Woodruff gave up a run in the second on a single by Luis Guillorme that scored Jeff McNeil. Then it turned horrible for Mets fans as deGrom left the game after the fourth inning with elbow problems. Smoak hit a solo home run in the sixth and Yelich hit a 2-run home run in the seventh. Wilson Ramos hit a 2-run home run for the Mets in the eighth off of Josh Lindbolm but it was too little, to late as a dominant Hader closed out the game. Brewers now 9-6 with a 1 game lead over the Cubs. The Cardinals have lost 6 straight and are now 3 games back with a record of 6-9. Game summary [attachment=2]4_12 game summary.jpg[/attachment] Hitters [attachment=1]4_12 hitters.jpg[/attachment] Pitchers [attachment=0]4_12 pitchers.jpg[/attachment]

https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/ April 11 - Brewers 5, Mets 0 Roster move before today's game. Manny Pina DFA'ed, David Freitas recalled. Big day for Freddy Peralta. Throws 5 no-hit innings and hits his first career home run. Freddy has been tough to hit this season, but he's walking so many guys that he is running into high pitch counts early. Game summary [attachment=2]4_11 game summary.jpg[/attachment] Hitters [attachment=1]4_11 hitters.jpg[/attachment] Pitchers [attachment=0]4_11 pitchers.jpg[/attachment]

That's interesting because my arm chair calculations are done with real verified numbers, and the epidemiologists "real" calculations are done with...well who knows what(?). Maybe that's why the stuff I posted on March 17th has stayed the same over the course of nearly a month while the situation was decreasing in China, at full impact in Italy/Spain and was ramping up in the US. Meanwhile the epidemiologists numbers have pretty much changed on a weekly basis.

The actual hard data is pretty much showing that all the modeling that has been done is nothing but garbage. Back on March 17, post #115 of this thread, I really questioned the estimates being thrown around that, at the time, were saying that 60% of the population would be infected. Even if the Chinese government were fudging their numbers in a big way, there was just no evidence at the time which suggested that the number would come anywhere close to even 10% being infected. Let's move on to the death rate. The Chinese were saying 1-3% at the time, the US government is currently saying about 1%, and I'd say again that the actual numbers are showing the death rate is much higher. Spain has surpassed Italy as the major population center with the highest rate of infection. Population = 46,754,778. Total cases = 157,022. Percent infected = 0.336%. They hit a high number of 8200+ cases on March 26 and are in a decline and are down to about 5000 cases per day. Odds are probably stacked against them even hitting 1%. So far there has been 98,379 deaths and 366,673 recoveries worldwide. 98379/465052*100 = 21.15% death rate. OK, can't trust that number because more people are aware and getting treatment and from this point forward the number of recoveries will increase more than the number of deaths. OK, currently there have been 1,633,448 confirmed cases. 98379/1633448*100 = 6.02%. So if every single current diagnosed individual recovers, 100% of them, the death rate is still 6.02%. How are people coming up with 1% based on the data out there(?)...unless they want to play the game of "6 of 7 will never show any symptoms" game, which then means they can bend the numbers to say whatever they want them to say. That's not really valid either IMO. If you go through the winter without getting the flu, when spring comes around you say you didn't get the flu, you don't say you probably got the flu because X% get the flu and you just didn't know that you actually had it. So let's look at Iowa's Stay at Home order...or lack of Stay at Home order. Unlike most states, who took the approach of shutting down everything and then immediately exempted almost all "big business," Iowa worked in reverse order, leaving everything open and then shutting down non-essentials bit-by-bit. On March 17th they shut down dine-in restaurants. On March 22 they closed barbershops and salons. On March 26 they closed down clothing retailers and bookstores. Just this week they shut down amusement parks, bowling alleys and malls. And despite all of this, their numbers were hanging around at about 80 new positive cases per day for the last week and half and now it looks like they may start an upward acceleration or they may have spiked. But so far, the increasing number of closures haven't significantly increased or decreased the number of positive cases. But a key point in all of this is that Iowa's lack of a stay at home order was considered to be very risky by much of the media....and as of this morning....Wisconsin has 2885 confirmed cases out of 5,822,434 people and Iowa has 1270 confirmed cases out of 3,155,070 people. Rate of infection in Wisconsin = 0.050%. Rate of infection in Iowa = 0.040%. And if I'm not mistaken, I believe Iowa's first confirmed case happened prior to Wisconsin's first confirmed case (might be wrong about that). Obviously Wyoming and North Dakota are so sparsely populated that a comparison with Wisconsin isn't valid. But looking at some other states with "loose" stay at home orders.....Utah = 0.062% infection rate...Arkansas = 0.0386% infection rate. So I'll raise doubts over the stay at home orders as well. Agree 100% that if people stay home, the virus will stop spreading. I just question and seriously doubt the true effectiveness of stay at home orders where a vast amount of people are still going to work....going to the grocery store....going to the hardware shop....going to the auto parts shop....going to the laundromat...etc...etc...etc. And I really find it debatable when the government says they are going to save me by closing all clothing retailers and causing mass herds to pile into big box stores because they've closed everything else.

https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/ April 10 - Mets 5, Brewers 2 Roster move before today's game. Manny Pina promoted to Milwaukee, David Freitas sent to AAA. There is also a change in the primary starting lineup. No one has been benched, but Luis Urias has been moved to #2 in the order. That shuffles Avisail Garcia to the #5 spot, and Smoak gets bumped from #5 to #7. Garcia has been awful so far in the simulation (.167/.163/.354/.517 after today's game), so I was not a fan seeing him getting moved behind Yelich. This game had the look of a possible pitching disaster as Houser has been bad and Claudio, Lindblom and Phelps were all very unlikely to pitch due to "exhausted" status. Nonetheless, for the most part, the pitching held it's own. The Brewers trailed 3-2 going into the 8th, and I had the feeling the Brewers were going to pull this one out late. But Corbin Burnes turned out to be the bullpen goat, he gave up a 2 run home run to Michael Conforto and then gave up a walk before getting pulled which ended the Brewers chances. Brewer's bullpen now with a 5.44 ERA, putting them dead last in the NL. And it's frustrating to see Hader in the closer's role, now 10 days into April and Hader has appeared in 1 game during the month (on the 6th). In other league news, White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito sprained his ankle and will miss at least two weeks. Game summary [attachment=2]4_10 game summary.jpg[/attachment] Hitters [attachment=1]4_10 hitters.jpg[/attachment] Pitchers [attachment=0]4_10 pitchers.jpg[/attachment]

https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/ April 9 - Mets 9, Brewers 3 Strange lineup with Cain out and Hiura given the day off. Probably didn't matter as Brett Anderson exited early with a hand injury and the Mets proceeded to beat up Josh Lindblom. Urias hits a 2 run home run but it was in the 9th inning with the Brewers down 9-1. Stroman was great for the Mets. Rosario and McNeil both with 3 hits and Alonso and Marisnick both with 4 RBIs. Game Summary [attachment=2]4_9_2020 game summary.jpg[/attachment] Hitters [attachment=1]4_9_2020 hitters.jpg[/attachment] Pitchers [attachment=0]4_9_2020 pitchers.jpg[/attachment]

Will April 8th go down as the first official day of re-messaging? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-09-20/h_d743a046cc1b7cd3c779b96aa7fbee86 CDC issues new guidelines for essential workers who have been exposed to coronavirus From CNN's Jason Hoffman Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield issued new guidelines for essential workers who have been exposed to the coronavirus, saying individuals would need to be asymptomatic to return to work. The guidelines, he said, are aimed at keeping essential workers, including first responders, health care workers, employees in the food supply chain and others at work -- even if they might have been exposed to someone who has coronavirus. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html Even as the total number of deaths reported each day remains at its highest levels, the number of new novel coronavirus cases in the United States is trending down, according to a major university that tracks figures worldwide. Johns Hopkins University changed the trending status for the United States to "down" on Tuesday night, because of changes in the five-day moving average of new cases. The data could change as more cases are reported. More than 430,000 people in the US have been infected, and more than 14,700 have died. A record 1,858 deaths were reported in just one day Tuesday, according to Johns Hopkins. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo told reporters Wednesday that there were 779 coronavirus-related deaths across the state Tuesday. It was the highest number of deaths reported in one day by New York officials. Researchers say the peak has yet to come. The US will reach its highest daily number of deaths on or around Sunday, according to modeling by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle. The projections also suggest the US will reach its peak use of resources -- such as hospital beds and ventilators -- on or around Saturday. But there's a bit of good news: The modeling shows fewer people will die from coronavirus than previously predicted.

I almost broke the limits of my self-imposed quarantine tonight. Nearly went though the Taco Bell drive-through because I'm sick of eating the same old stuff I've been eating at home lately. Surprising part is that I don't even like Taco Bell. I did go to the polls this week (had zero concern about it and I am in my 50's), but other than that it's been a solid month of home/work and groceries just 1 time a week. Getting pretty sick of it. Can't wait for society to open back up.

You almost literally have a better chance of getting struck by lightning than getting CV in Janesville. Being able to get out and do simple fun things like that are healthy for your mental state. High stress creates more health issues and potential death than CV in most areas of the state, and country for that matter. t this point everyone is (or should be) painfully aware of the risks. If you are old or otherwise compromised, stay away from people. If you must interact with said people, take all necessary precautions. That's where we need to be, otherwise it's very close to the time to open up the stores and restaurants and start getting back to normal. The car dealership that I do business with voluntarily shut down two weeks ago (including the service department). Got an e-mail last night that they are back up and running. It would be interesting to find out why that happened. Owners didn't want to lose more money? Employees not happy about facing the possibility of not getting paid (they were paid in full the last two weeks...but maybe that was going to end)? Customers not happy that they couldn't get their cars fixed? All of the above? My guess is that it was a little bit of all of that. I still think the country is back up and running no later than the first week in July...really expecting it to happen sooner. I just don't think society works much longer with what is happening. Too many businesses shut down. Too many people out of a job. More and more stress put on the government who still need to pay people (not only the public sector employees, but also people that need additional assistance due to the shutdown) and build roads, etc.

Team Stats [attachment=2]4_8_Team Stats.jpg[/attachment] Hitters [attachment=1]4_8_Hitters.jpg[/attachment] Pitchers [attachment=0]4_8_Pitchers.jpg[/attachment]

https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/ April 8 - Off Off-day so two posts today (max of 5 attachments per post). First post will have standings. Second post will have Brewer team and individual stats. There were a flurry of MiLB moves with many teams starting on the 9th. The Brewers have released Nathan Kirby and Quintin Torres-Costa. Kirby was immediately picked up by the Mets and assigned to Columbia (A). Torres-Costa remains a free agent. A couple ex-Brewers on the waiver wire. Gio Gonzalez (2 starts, 4.05 ERA, 1.13 WHIP). Deolis Guerra (7 1/3 innings, 1.23 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). The bullpen is down to 12th in the NL in ERA, wouldn't be so surprised to see a move happen there in the near future. NL Standings [attachment=3]4_8_NL Standings.jpg[/attachment] NL Wild Card [attachment=2]4_8_NL Wild Card.jpg[/attachment] AL Standings [attachment=1]4_8_AL Standings.jpg[/attachment] AL Wild Card [attachment=0]4_8_AL Wild Card.jpg[/attachment]

Is it so hard for a multi-billion dollar industry like MLB to refund fans in full, hold the previously purchased seats for those fans, and when this is all sorted out then give the fans a 96 hour window to buy back the seats that they had previously purchased? That seems the way that an honest, friendly business would treat their customers. Markets look like they could be up a full 10% combined between Monday and Tuesday. Attanasio is probably really enjoying his best customer's money right now.

https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/ April 7 - Brewers 6, Reds 3 (8 innings - rain) Game called due to rain in the bottom of the 8th inning. Cain was hurt in this game when making a diving catch. He is listed as out for the next four days. Sonny Gray had terrible numbers coming into this game and was just awful. Now has a 10.03 ERA and 2.83 WHIP in 3 starts. In other league news, Shohei Ohtani was diagnosed with shoulder inflammation and will miss the next 5 months. Game summary [attachment=2]4_7_2020 game summary.jpg[/attachment] Hitters [attachment=1]4_7_2020 hitters.jpg[/attachment] Pitchers [attachment=0]4_7_2020 pitchers.jpg[/attachment]

Yelich has 5 walks in the last 4 games in the OOTP sim. When sitting there watching the games play out, it sure seems the engine is going to pitch around him in critical situations. Smoak is generally the guy hitting behind him, and he's up to a pretty respectable .250/.364/.464/.828 slash line, so at least there isn't a black hole batting behind Yelich.

https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/ April 6 - Reds 6, Brewers 5 (10 innings) Cardinals lose 4-0. Brewers and Cards still tied for 1st place with 6-4 records. This was a train-wreck performance by the bullpen. Brewers 0-3 since Urias was activated and Arcia was sent to the bench. Game summary [attachment=2]4_6_2020 game summary.jpg[/attachment] Hitters [attachment=1]4_6_2020 hitters.jpg[/attachment] Pitchers [attachment=0]4_6_2020 pitchers.jpg[/attachment]

https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/ April 5 - Phillies 8, Brewers 3 Cardinals move into a first place tie with the Brewers at 6-3. One other note. Hadn't noticed that Noah Syndergaard was pitching in the simulation (his surgery was revealed very late). I have gone in and done a modification, so he is done for the rest of the season after having made 2 starts. Game summary [attachment=2]4_5_game summary.jpg[/attachment] Hitters [attachment=1]4_5_hitters.jpg[/attachment] Pitchers [attachment=0]4_5_pitchers.jpg[/attachment]