Austin Tatious

Thank you, Eye Black. Great Info. I rated Quero and Hamilton high. Long way to go, but they profile really well so I gave them good rankings. With Hamilton, from what I’ve read over time is he had a big injury his last year at Texas but might have otherwise been in the conversation for the first round. That’s classic David Stearns taking advantage of a market inefficiency in the eighth round. I think we were all excited in our post draft talk here too. Maybe I’m a baseball nerd, but with the absence of minor league ball last season, I am especially excited to see how all of our prospects play this year. Info has been so sparse. I hope guys aren’t shaking too much rust off. The first part of the season could be rough. Our group of Latin players is the largest, most compelling group we’ve ever had IMO. It will still be awhile but playing the odds, hopefully more than our share of guys will emerge. Who knows, maybe in a few years we are looking at Perez in right, Quero at catcher, Parra at third, and a couple of those live arms all in Milwaukee. Our drafting is more inspired and our Latin signings look promising. We had a dry period in our system for years. Some of it was uninspired drafting. But we didn’t get enough Latin talent. Peralta and Arcia come to mind, but you’d look at good systems at the time and they’d have more juice on their prospect lists from Latin America. We are on our trajectory to that point. Sorry this is long. But how about the pitching lab and development! We have so many guys with strong upticks in velocity. I was surprised by File in this regard last spring but it’s happening with such stunning frequency that you have to give credit to the organization’s program with pitching. People want to knock the occasional weird signing but the infrastructure and analysis within the organization has gone sky high under Stearns. For the skeptics, I grant you that guys haven’t proven it. But when we look back in five years, I think our current top 25 will prove to be very good. And keep in mind, I was a big critic of our drafting and development in the past. So this isn’t just me being a homer.

I wonder what the Dodgers would want for Rios? They literally don’t need anything. And their 40 man is so deep right now they might want younger. Maybe Lutz plus a young SS like Zamora or Cantrelle. That would give them an OF who is getting close to the 40 man and a younger SS with potential who has upside but has plenty of time. Or maybe one of our young catchers although they have Ruiz high on their list already.

I think he can be a sneaky good signing. I wouldn’t mind it if he and Urias play different spots a la Hernan Perez. Versatility is right in Counsell’s wheelhouse.

No question. I thought Billy Jo Robidoux was going to be the real deal. El Paso in AA would have some eye popping hitting stats. I was really eager for Randy Ready and he actually had a good career. Back then I’d just scour through the minor league stats in the paper. That’s all I could rely on, along with the occasional reference from the brilliant Tony Kubek or even Peter Gammons, who is more annoying to me with his Boston and NE bias. I remember Kubek talking about Juan Nieves after he signed and that’s how I first heard of him. I remember reading the Stockton stats in A ball and I was excited about Bill Wegman. I realize I got off point because a lot of the guys I mentioned made it, but it’s harder to remember the guys who didn’t make it. A lot of the guys you mentioned were dead on. Joey Meyer et al.

Thank you, Reilly. I might update mine as I think further. I will say this was one of the toughest ones to ever do because of the lack of a minor league season. You have to read kind of between the lines. The silence on some guys was deafening. For example, I’ve heard almost nothing about Corey Ray. So I dinged him quite a bit. But he was an extra base machine in 2018 and then was hurt in 2019. He will probably never have a good hit tool but maybe can get some extra base hits. I have just a final tinge of hope with him that he can be a MLB player soon. For a system that gets dogged quite a bit, I’m pretty optimistic on our top 20 or so players. We will see if my theory ages well. We have some guys who I think will add juice to the MLB club in the next 3-4 years. I’d say this list could very well prove to be better than some prior year lists that were touted such as the years we had Brinson at the top. 1) Garrett Mitchell, OF 2) Antoine Kelly, LHP 3) Hedbert Perez, OF 4) Brice Turang, SS 5) Aaron Ashby, LHP 6) Jeferson Quero, C 7) Mario Feliciano, C 8) Ethan Small, LHP 9) Eduardo Garcia, SS 10) Tristen Lutz, OF 11) Freddy Zamora, SS 12) Hayden Cantrelle, SS 13) Jackson Brayan Chourio, SS/OF 14) Zavier Warren, C 15) Luis Medina, OF 16) Payton Henry, C 17) David Hamilton, SS 18) Jesus Parra, 3B 19) Dylan File, RHP 20) Carlos Rodriguez, OF 21) Max Lazar, RHP 22) Micah Bello, OF 23) Corey Ray, OF 24) Victor Castenada, RHP 25) Ernesto Martinez, 1B 26) Thomas Dillard, 1B/OF/C 27) Nick Kahle, C 28) Joe Gray, OF 29) Abner Uribe, RHP

Good points. I just don’t see Story as having the profile of what we’d pursue. But maybe I am wrong. I didn’t see us making the deal for Grandal either.

Yeah I was about to say that Burnes is a non-starter here. He’s a top of the rotation type of talent and not the kind of guy you move in this deal. His peripherals demonstrate a sky high upside. He’d be moved more for multiple high ceiling prospects but I’d expect him to just stay. If any team knows how hard it is to find a starter like Burnes, it’s your Milwaukee Brewers. It literally doesn’t matter what he did in 2019. It’s just noise from his development. This is about what he has the ability to become based on the here and now and the good likelihood of it happening barring injury in view of his high level stuff. Go where the hockey puck is going to be not where it was.

I agree with that. I’ve always felt that the FO just doesn’t want to be locked into contracts with extra years where they are backed into a corner and are hindered from having future flexibility for other acquisitions. Notice that the typical moves don’t limit future flexibility unless they are committed to the player as a cornerstone piece a la Yelich. There have been some guys like Rosario who they’ve missed on who didn’t require much commitment. I suspect we do something in the next couple of days. What the move is can be anyone’s guess. For all we know we are building a package with Arcia and other pieces to get Suarez.

It’s hard to believe we could get Turner out of LA. He loves it there and they know it. Ozuna seems to want a big financial commitment which makes it tough. Maybe they move into the CJ Cron-Jed Gyorko zone or possibly pull a trade off.... Hopefully they are learning the lesson to be sure to get legit 3b and 1b prospects into development.

Very frustrating that they got him for a bag of chips. Rosario and Pederson didn’t sign for much either... Feels like a big few days here.

I hope Counsell gives strong consideration to moving Hader back into his weapon role that he made so dynamic in 2018. Hader would enter in the 6th or 7th and runners could be on and he would shut it down. I don’t know how many times I remarked, “whew we could have lost it there.” That’s a true fireman, and if you’re thinking in an advanced way, imagine it’s a 3-2 game and the other team has two on and one out in the 6th and it’s the middle of the order coming up. That might be a far more critical situation than being up 5-3 in the ninth with no one on and the bottom of the order coming up, where your closer might enter. The way Hader handled that role, if you chart out possible losses that he avoided, he made a huge impact. If you return Hader to that role, you still have Devin as the closer. We also have guys like Rasmussen and Topa and several other possibilities like Yardley et al. Suter can come in for longer stretches if needed. Hard to say where Peralta ends up, and on and on. I haven’t even given up on Bickford and think he can be a factor at some point. The impact that Hader has on winning in that way can never be evened out in a trade for some combo of high floor, low ceiling players or prospects, plus lottery teenagers with upside but massive risk. We’d have to be idiots to make a trade along those lines for a guy like Hader. And guess what, it’s our FO’s prerogative to put a high price on him. It’s not up to another GM. We could just as easily mock the Yankees for making Jasson Dominguez untouchable. But that’s not up to us, that’s Cashman’s call. I kind of think our best chance to deal him is to a team that is in contention with another team that could also use him. Maybe a team like the Mets or Braves in the East, possibly the Padres vs Dodgers in the west. I suppose you could argue for Chisox vs Twins. Maybe you push the Jays and give them the fear of the Yankees, although I don’t think the Yankees have the right assets. The fear of your rival getting him is something we could hopefully exploit. The team trading for him ultimately would (a) get him, and, (b) avoid seeing him on your close divisional rival. It’s like a double benefit. You can’t just give that away. In the end, the last thing I want is middling or unpredictable talent. In that case, I would far rather have Hader and his high level production that makes a true difference in W’s and L’s.

Good. Our front office understands valuations.

I'm not real sure who they could theoretically target in a deal that is going to provide similar value to the 2021 team than Hader would, though. If they trade Hader, it's likely going to be for a package of high-end prospects that are further away, or for one or two players who might be ready to contribute in the majors, but would likely not have as high of ceilings. It's tough for me to see another contender dealing off valuable, young MLB-ready talent for Hader without some sort of catch. Sure, we'd all be happy to get a guy like Lux or Kirilloff, but those are guys who are ready to become valuable contributors to their own contending teams. Good post. It’s interesting to try to predict which teams might be in on a trade, and have the right assets. If I had to guess, for the teams often mentioned, maybe it’s something like this: Doubtful they would be all in: Dodgers, Whitesox Doubt they have the right assets: Yankees, Phillies Could be a match: Blue Jays, Padres, Mets, Braves I doubt it would be something out of left field like Arizona or Seattle. The Brewers are really good about not leaking stuff. You just suddenly get an alert on your phone that something happened and it’s not anything you heard about.

It was uncanny how there was a flurry of pitching signings, like dominoes falling. Position players picking up now. Once teams focus on where they are out of options for FA’s, they might start thinking about trade options.

That's why I wouldn't do this particular deal. I'm not convinced on Vaughn. But for people who like Vaughn, then I think the swap would be pretty fair and realistic. And Vaughn is #13 on MLB Pipeline's top 100, so it's obvious that there are a ton of baseball people who like him. Agree. If all it took was Vaughn, Kelley and Heuer for Burnes, the White Sox would turn the card into the league office so fast your head would spin. If that’s all it took, this deal would have been done long ago. If there truly is any talking here, Rick Hahn knows what he’s got to do. He’s not going to waste time with lowballs.

Is that the article that said Cleveland should rename themselves the "Fellers"? No but Fellers sounds stupid to me. I think Hammers is cool for a baseball team. I guess it’s personal preference. Personally I like it.

I’ve stayed out of this thread but I’d just say that Burnes has high end potential based on his peripherals and “stuff.” Those portend huge upside. He’s the type of potential stud you dream and hope you can develop. He’s under control and cost controlled. It literally makes no sense to deal him. So if it’s happens, you’d need a large overpay way beyond some sort of statistical, WAR like analysis or what those silly surplus value websites say. This is also not about what he did in 2018 or 2019. It’s forward looking and about what he’s projected to be. If they got equal value for him and they trade him, I’d go ballistic. No, this needs to be a huge haul. We are not in the same universe as Shelby Miller and guys like that where people try to poo poo the return. It’s not about numbers. It’s time to dig deeper. Burnes can be a true ace and elite pitcher with lots of control yet. Scarcity plays into it, big time. Corbin Burnes’ profile is that of someone who is the most difficult to commodity to find, and then you couple it with control and cost certainty. The return would have to be gigantic. Otherwise, no point in doing it. That’s fine if you want to disagree with me but there is no way I trade him for statistical even returns. Rick Hahn went to Harvard Law. He’s not an idiot. You just tell him “we are not inclined to move him, and if we do, we want an over pay, which here would be massive. If you still want him because of your depth of talent, we are open but don’t try to convince us on equal value because that will never happen. If that were the case, no shot we would trade him because he’s the hardest thing to find in baseball.” Truth be told based on stuff, he could easily be our number one starter with Woody the best number two in team history. That’s a very reasonable possibility.

I’m in my early 50s. One of my early baseball memories was the 1975 all star game at County Stadium. I saw it on TV but I remember George Scott but also Hank playing. As widely discussed, Hank’s consistency was staggering. And he had a great hit tool for a guy with pop. Tremendous ball player and a gentleman. When he broke the record, I love the clip of his parents, so dignified in their Sunday’s best, so insanely proud of their son. As a parent, that must be the most amazing feeling. And for what they had seen being from the South in that era, that’s great that they experienced their son’s career and it’s culmination. I saw an article that the Braves should rename themselves as the Hammers. That would be so cool. You’d think “Braves” is a compliment but who knows these days. Either way, the Hammers would be cool IMO. RIP Hank. Maybe Gibby, Seaver, or Sutton can throw you batting practice now.

RIP. Loved having him on the Brewers. That locker room was big time Sutton, Fingers, Yount, Molitor, Cooper et al.

Here is an article that debunks the myth of Cobb as a racist, including that his family were abolitionists. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.freep.com/amp/3110323001

That Bevacqua rant is epic. You can hear the rage starting to build. And it kind of gives a peek into a guy who would indeed call a code red. Throw in a “you can’t handle the truth” and case closed.

I would have been interested in him for first base but we all knew we weren’t paying that number now. We paid that for Garcia last year but that was then and I doubt we’d do that one again.

I’d be interested in Taijuan Walker but I think we only sign severe value propositions. If we can get somebody at a steep discount on a short deal, that could be a path. Our FO’s thought process invariably goes back to identifying opportunities arising from inefficiencies in the market. Go where the herd isn’t.

I agree. Spread the odds around. A lot of the highly rated international prospects weren’t the biggest bonus babies. Lara was quite a bad experience for Mark A I’m sure.

Big bonus International pitchers are a rarity in general. Last year the top 15 International prospects were all position players. The year before there were two pitchers among the top ten International prospects, one of which was from Cuba. Among the top 60 International prospects over the past two years (2018 & 2019), only 11 were pitchers. Not saying they aren’t also avoiding them, but when there is so little supply of highly paid International arms it’s tough to make any definitive conclusions. This is a good point. It seems like the Brewers are trying to align risk and reward. They are also focusing on opportunity as they heavily invest in Venezuela where they see the opportunity instead of the intensely competitive market in the DR. In the international market, I’m sure we would sign a top pitcher if we had our hooks into one. But, the opportunity is much smaller as you mentioned so our focus is up the middle position players or OF. Then in the draft, we seem to focus much more on college pitchers for the most part (Woodruff, Burnes, Small, Ashby, or even Kelly from juco) or position players that could be either from the high school ranks (Turang, Lutz) or college (Mitchell, Hiura, Zamora). We aren’t drafting high school pitchers so much really high. I’m sure we would in the right circumstance but we can see a larger strategy where we are trying to avoid squandering a large resource for nil production. If you go through our history of drafting high school pitchers high, it’s been pretty much a disaster. Personally, I am really happy with our drafting and international player signings now. We have a coherent strategy that marries reward with risk. We had a period from like the late aughts until the mid teens where we were a barren wasteland of failed acquisitions that harkened back to the 90s when we signed a lot of high upside guys that bombed out. That was a very annoying period where you could just see them making mistakes in real time. That’s all corrected now IMO. For as much criticism as our system has gotten recently, one more good draft (and we have high picks coming), finally signing Chourios and company, and perhaps a trade that nets us a good prospect, and suddenly our system will be rated nicely IMO. The media guys tend to be a tick behind.