brewcrewdue80

Here's my guess a little on the situation. 1st/2nd picks since 2014 have either graduated, used in a trade, not reached their potential(Ray) The International market is what? 2 years in to their newer format? Is has there been 3 already? Where The smaller markets are rewarded with higher signing money pools. Pools that not to long ago are far higher than money they spent on internationals yearly. So having 8 in top 30 is only bound to happen, especially since they begin so young.

You know if the Brewers were the first to try it, MLB would immediately find a way to change the rules so that the rules aren't being exposed by a small market team first.

Im not a fan of these pitcher 8th lineups. Remember the rule change that a RP has to face 3 batters. Keep it as late in order as possible. Id guess CC keeps a majority R/L batter mix. Yelich 2 Hiura 3rd. Cain leadoff when platoon favor. After that its an interchangeable 4-7. SS 8th.

I seen that Archie Bradley won his Arb case and was the last case this season that endured the process without coming to an agreement. Overall, owners won 7 cases and players won 5. Lot closer to 50/50 after the owners won the initial 4. On an Aside, Bradley is going to make 4.1mil this season after around 2.3mil the previous. He became Arizona's closer last season and only has 1 more Arb season remaining. I realize he wasn't a Hader but something to compare maybe. For future pricing. If you give Hader a similar increase that comes to. Approximately 7.33 mil mil next season. I'll give him a bonus of 500k to be a 7.85mil projection then next season. Had Hader won the price on just Bradley's increase would have become 11.41mil next season. Edit add. Year 3-20.33mil and yr 4 36.33mil. Had Hader won. At 4.1 the increase only awards to 7.33, 13.06, 23.27mil.

These last 4 pages have been brutal to read. What a dumb discussion on a fantastic ongoing season.

True in Yelich's case he's a level ahead of Hiura that you would want him batting higher. In Hiura's case, I think his numbers are going to improve lowering his Ks which would mean raises his HR/PA, likely gets his number close to where he would fit my mold as a #4 batter.

Just a little tidbit on this. Your premise is a .320OB but HRs go towards the OB number. If you want your best hitter at #3, if those .320 guys are batting 1/2, what happens when 1 or 2 of them hits 40HRs? What about when combined Leadoff 30HR, 2nd to bat 40HRs or 70Combined before that best hitter? Well my math at a leadoff with 30HRs and best hitter #2 is 28% vs 32. And #3 with 70HRs combined at 27.3% And I think with both bases occupied 7.64% if the multiple of both numbers is what figures that out? In regards to the RBI/PAs with runners one/order batted: Can notice on Yelich's at #2, that's based on him playing less games there right? Which I guess to equal those stats out, you'd have to go on equation on what a 162 game projection? Two of the top 3 in that with runners on base came from the 4th batting spot, even though that spot has 33less PAs in the season than #2. So I think what this shows is you may want to bat your highest HR/PA #4 and your best batter after that #2. High OB #1 after that. Best batter after those figured out #3. If I go by that Yelich goes 4th. Hiura goes #2. I don't know exactly how 1/3 work as after Yelich and Hiura nobody else is an everyday player. Braun probably fills #3 with his OB/OPS combo from last season.

He’s already arbitration eligible so the the Brewers cannot gain an extra year of team control. Not sure where you got the idea this was possible. As for cutting Arcia, I don’t see that as a viable option since he’s still an above average bench player who provides elite level defense and some pop. Regardless if there isn’t a clear fit for him elsewhere I guarantee Stearns could get something of value for him on the trade market. It might only be a lottery ticket prospect or two but it’s still better then letting him go for nothing. When hes in the minors he wont accrue service time. Currently hes in yr 1 of 3 Arbitration. But should his clock lower the amount of days where he doesnt turn the next year. He should be controlled another year. But instead of 3 total arbs he now gets 4. Hes been fairly bad so it doesnt matter much. I believe this was majority of factor creating Super 2. For the players optioned 3 times where their clock didnt gain a year.

He’s already arbitration eligible so the the Brewers cannot gain an extra year of team control. Not sure where you got the idea this was possible. As for cutting Arcia, I don’t see that as a viable option since he’s still an above average bench player who provides elite level defense and some pop. Regardless if there isn’t a clear fit for him elsewhere I guarantee Stearns could get something of value for him on the trade market. It might only be a lottery ticket prospect or two but it’s still better then letting him go for nothing. When hes in the minors he wont accrue service time. Currently hes in yr 1 of 3 Arbitration. But should his clock lower the amount of days where he doesnt turn the next year. He should be controlled another year. But instead of 3 total arbs he now gets 4. Hes been fairly bad so it doesnt matter much. I believe this was majority of factor creating Super 2. For the players optioned 3 times where their clock didnt gain a year.

I'm fairly confident that Arcia will spend more than enough days in the minors to push him back to Super 2 status and gain a year of control. Sogard/Urias will be the SS combo upon being healthy Holt fits wherever. Adding Holt with Sogard on the team makes Arcia expendable. He may actually be traded before OD to be honest to a rebuild team who has a RP Stearns likes. Though I just spent like 15min trying to find a rebuild team that could use an Arcia as a bounce back value gain for trade later on, and none were to be found. I honestly wonder if the Brewers removed him from their 40man if he'd be claimed at the moment. How terrible is that? Gotta be one of the top 25 prospects ranked in top 10 who were busts this century. SSs are just abloom right now, all these teams have graduated prospects playing SS for them, or will be this season/next and have a veteran better than Arcia in place. Japan is calling him.

I'm fairly confident that Arcia will spend more than enough days in the minors to push him back to Super 2 status and gain a year of control. Sogard/Urias will be the SS combo upon being healthy Holt fits wherever. Adding Holt with Sogard on the team makes Arcia expendable. He may actually be traded before OD to be honest to a rebuild team who has a RP Stearns likes. Though I just spent like 15min trying to find a rebuild team that could use an Arcia as a bounce back value gain for trade later on, and none were to be found. I honestly wonder if the Brewers removed him from their 40man if he'd be claimed at the moment. How terrible is that? Gotta be one of the top 25 prospects ranked in top 10 who were busts this century. SSs are just abloom right now, all these teams have graduated prospects playing SS for them, or will be this season/next and have a veteran better than Arcia in place. Japan is calling him.

This was an excellent post by the OP. Yelich is under contract through 2022. Hader is controlled through 2023. I personally believe the Brewers are in a Yelich window that will run through 2021. This is why I am not a fan of the reduced 2020 payroll. I think this year and next year are the two "shots" at winning big. The farm system stinks, and unless some players have Trent Grisham type years in 2020 I think the Brewers will need to tear it down during the 2021-2022 offseason. I am not sure 1 year of Yelich and 2 years of Hader will be enough to bring in the talent needed for a quick rebuild. Others will also need to be traded, however, I dont want to guess who will be valuable in 2021-2022. It could be Woodruff, Lauer, Urias, Hiura, Peralta, Burnes etc. Looking at the years, I'd just expect Yelich and Cain to play out their contracts, should Hader still be on the team by then, trade him for 2023. And really just go on a rebuild over 2seasons. But then if our pitchers are working out, I dunno. What if Stearns found a few extensions in Woodruff or Lauer, any of the top3 SPs were counting on in Peralta/Burnes/Houser. This season is probably going to dictate this future. If we grow a number of 2s/3s here suddenly, You're really not rebuilding. But if Lauer turns out as a #3/4 2 of Peralta/Burnes/Houser end up as RPs/#4s at best, The decision to trade Yelich a year early and a full rebuild makes complete sense. We're talking everybody including Woodruff for trade offs. Hiura/Urias at the moment may only be the survivors of the trade offs and that may just be for an extra season depending where the team sits. Luckily I think the team is going to surprise and the first scenario plays out, having Yelich all 3 seasons, trading Hader his last season and the team just chugging along.

This was an excellent post by the OP. Yelich is under contract through 2022. Hader is controlled through 2023. I personally believe the Brewers are in a Yelich window that will run through 2021. This is why I am not a fan of the reduced 2020 payroll. I think this year and next year are the two "shots" at winning big. The farm system stinks, and unless some players have Trent Grisham type years in 2020 I think the Brewers will need to tear it down during the 2021-2022 offseason. I am not sure 1 year of Yelich and 2 years of Hader will be enough to bring in the talent needed for a quick rebuild. Others will also need to be traded, however, I dont want to guess who will be valuable in 2021-2022. It could be Woodruff, Lauer, Urias, Hiura, Peralta, Burnes etc. Looking at the years, I'd just expect Yelich and Cain to play out their contracts, should Hader still be on the team by then, trade him for 2023. And really just go on a rebuild over 2seasons. But then if our pitchers are working out, I dunno. What if Stearns found a few extensions in Woodruff or Lauer, any of the top3 SPs were counting on in Peralta/Burnes/Houser. This season is probably going to dictate this future. If we grow a number of 2s/3s here suddenly, You're really not rebuilding. But if Lauer turns out as a #3/4 2 of Peralta/Burnes/Houser end up as RPs/#4s at best, The decision to trade Yelich a year early and a full rebuild makes complete sense. We're talking everybody including Woodruff for trade offs. Hiura/Urias at the moment may only be the survivors of the trade offs and that may just be for an extra season depending where the team sits. Luckily I think the team is going to surprise and the first scenario plays out, having Yelich all 3 seasons, trading Hader his last season and the team just chugging along.

Right and gaining the 3.9 negative WAR back by replacing their innings and Chacins with quality innings is a great way to remove 4 negative war. Gaining 3 additional positive WAR improvement over the starters that pitched last year is the part that's going to be difficult. You can't just go... ok this guy pitched these innings and they could do that too. To have a 7 war IMPROVEMENT you have to negate the 3 (Chacin Burnes Peralta) negative and then expound upon the WAR that other quality options were able to achieve. 88.2 on Chacin, 35.2 of Peralta, 17.2 of Burnes is only 143 innings. You had a couple bad starts from Nelson, but then your next weakest link was Houser as a starter. Pulling 3 positive WAR above and beyond Houser and Chase is going to be a big task. Yeah I didnt put Peralta or Burnes Starts IP only in my equation. Their total value included the IP from the bullpen. Simply being these 2 have a value impact amongst themselves and total IP. I realized I forgot 1pitcher in comparing a value they could positively add for the team being Chase Anderson with a slightly higher than 4ERA but still worth over 1WAR. I think a lock is Woodruff giving 3WAR value. Lauer giving 2.5WAR value. Combined will be more. Lindblom is an unknown til we see him start in ST. Houser i think at worst is Chase Anderson level with improvement on his own level. The argument in rotation being 7Wins better is replacing all the neg IP by the trio of Peralta-Burnes-Chacin with Avg type SP stuff. Which is about 2-2.5WAR it seems. It's not a preposterous thing to say. Like winning the lottery would have better odds than this idea on Burnes or Peralts this season happening. My added IP was found in Gio stats and IP as Id say that was reasonable for being avg. He had value in that stint. Its just value that Peralta-Burnes would take from as they eclipsed the IP total of the Neg-trio last season.

I seen the 2019-2020 rumors thread listing lineups with Arenado. Knew this thread was around. Been a Feb month since last post in here giving it a bump as ST approaches. Hearing the best shape stuff Gyorko comes to mind being a hopeful 3b game taker from Sogard optimism. Look forward to games!

They are going to have to be pretty good to accomplish 4 war in the innings they pitched. I think math failed you there. No I think he's got it about right. If these two are pitching better, they'll pitch more innings. More Innings would also eliminate Chacin's -0.7BWAR value of last season 88.2IP 5.79ERA. Jordan Lyles was worth 1.8BWAR (2.45ERA) in his 11 starts of 58.2 IP. Gio was worth 1.7BWAR (3.5ERA) 17starts in 87.1IP. If that is the case a 3.5ERA in 87IP seems reasonable to make up their value with Chacin's negative value in combined IP to be a 7win improvement. Combined that would cover 223IP of -3.9BWAR. Zach Davies was worth 2.5BWAR with 3.55ERA in 159.2IP Adding to Gio's value of 87.1IP of 3.5ERA That is 4.2BWAR over a combined 247 IP. +7wins is probably a good comp for 223IP out of those two in 223IP. Just reach 3.53ERA. It be one heckuva spin on the Rotation if we got Davies' value from Lauer. Woodruff's same value in more IP from him. Replacing Peralta/Burnes/Chacin with avg Peralta/Burnes in that IP comparison. That's got about 113starts covered for the rotation in my mind about 66% of the total IP for +7wins out of the rotation. Leaves 34% or 49Starts to value Houser/Lyles/Gio combined SP value of starts in '19 to maintain what 2019's rotation produced to attain a +7win value out of a Burnes/Peralta turnaround.

Nothing about what Hader said is any problem or controversy. It becomes a controversy because CC agreed with Hader's side. Let's give Hader an effective season. Great Arb 2. Hader asks for 11mil Brewers offer 7.8mil. Bad look for the team. To the players on Milw who will enter their Arb seasons-Woodruff, and Hiura a season later if that concern for Super 2 comes true. Do you think this now has a trickle effect on Draft picks? It's now well known by June 2nd draft that the Brewers aren't rewarding their players in Arb. Their Manager agrees. Should a top 30 player who goes to Milw in the 70s take the deal that is of a 40s size value? drafted player thinks," But wait when I get to Arb with this team, I'm going to be hosed" "Lemme just take that College offer and look to be drafted in 2 or 3 years" That's going to happen too. Why? Because agian, when the Brewers play nationally televised games, those ESPN guys are only going to talk about this controversy. Draft Prospect sees this watching the games and it's instilled in his values on Milwaukee. Counsell should have been the "It's the process in Arb. Teams win, Players will win. That stuff is not for me to worry about, or take sides on. David is who you should ask that question but he likely won't be picking any sides either" But he chose Hader's side.

Basically took the Hader win money and used for Suter 2yrs.

Really Counsell said that? Wow. Stir the pot idiotic platform to stand on. Validate Hader's beliefs before the season begins as the manager? What was he thinking? Well good luck keeping Hader longer than this season. This will follow both all season on every nationally televised game. Stir the pot controversy. Especially if Hader pitches that game any inning outside the 9th inning. Just watch. Easiest prediction to make this season.

Watkins has a $21M cap hit in 2020 and hasn't had more than 700 yards receiving in a season since 2015. He's not much more than a name only, Randall Cobb in another uniform. It's a no-brainer that he gets cut, and not someone I'd give a big contract to. But if hes cut you can sign him to a different money deal? He wouldnt hurt GB for 21mil. Just whatever they signed him to? Or is that not true?

Just keep with both now that Hader lost his Arb case. Give both the QO if Hader is deserving at that stage still. Maybe the rewards change in the small markets favor more. I think right now considering where the minors stand. The team should stay invested to have a chance at a WS. 3more years of Yelich &Cain. Tear it all down after. Sell Harders last year. Woodruffs last 2 seasons. Burnes &Peralta. Build around Urias and Hiura and whoever else is big in the franchise at that time. I'd play this all out to win these next 3 seasons. And then sell it all off when it ends what you have worth selling that's not long for building around. That may include Lauer. That would be 6years of legit Playoff contending. May only be 1year to reload.

Good news. More valuable if/when traded.

Weak. 7+WAR last 2 seasons and they go 5.7? Impressive total in Runs though.

Well being a small market team you know baseball wont want Hader to stay in Milw too long. Were just AAAA farm for the Yankees and Dodgers. Watch Hader win.

Stated Friday so today essentially.