brewcrewdue80
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Everything posted by brewcrewdue80
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We'd lose our 4th round pick somewhere in the 100s. Don't care on the pick the team gets. It's not a 1st round guy so it's not a major likely future All Star.
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2018 MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects
brewcrewdue80 replied to jonescm128's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Well Supak has to be the favorite followed by Stokes as they will be more advanced. Gatewood is 19th and his growth last season I think he'll carry further in to this year and that takes him way higher in regard especially as hes seeing AA games maybe even AAA by the end of season. I think the others are too far away and need a monster year to climb to a top 10 I guess Zach Brown could climb but the rest haven't played enough to think they'll play enough with stats to climb in to top 10....Of course you can trade for Archer and lose 4 or 5 guys making it easier -
Said this elsewhere where Knebel was included in a horrible trade idea. This team is trying to compete, not rebuild. The Ken Giles trade happened while Philly was and remains in a decade long rebuild. You don't make such a move. If you did, you are acquiring a TOR top 20 prospect which is: Ohtani, Whitley, Kopech, Buehler, Keller, Reyes, Honeywell and Gore via MLB.com. Plus a RP or toolsy position player. Based on where that group is at(you'd want someone to add to the team this season) Gore would be out. Reyes after TJ and a Cardinal would be out. Keller for Pittsburgh would be out. Ohtani has to be out. #1 would likely be Buehler. After that it gets hard to believe. 2-Whitley. Only Houston has Giles they've made this trade already and are losing SP after this year 3-Kopech. Boston needs him more than they do Kneble having Kimbrel 4-Honeywell-Tampa breeds these pitchers for the future not trade them for the current in 3 years maybe? So you go down the line a little further Triston McKenzie would make sense, though I think his floor is too risky. And my best fit is simply Atlanta who has a ton of SPs to offer up and not the Craig Kimbrel/Kneble closer anymore. Look out for that future matchup as Atlanta graduates more of their studs and competes and decides to move forward in competing. Either way you look at it, there isn't a fit now with a Kneble trade. Cleveland being the best option for reality. I have a hard time wanting to move a guy with 4 years of control when you can trade him for same or even better value a year or two from now. Making this team worse for a future better SP, just a move fans will question. We are an 84.5 win Vegas team and Kneble probably adds 3 wins if not 4. Moving him drops us to below a .500 team which with 6OF and lost Closer makes you question what are we doing?
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Looking at stats of starts last season Suter went 6 or better 4 of 14 starts. Three games to end the season he pitched 5 sitting an avg of 69 pitches at that point. He did miss 3 weeks in Aug to start of Sept. He has a short leash, that maybe will get extended 10-15pitches. I don't think it's not on his ability to pitch 6 innings or more, just he's not allowed. He's had an offseason to work on his stuff. Allowed to pitch 90 vs 70 could be the difference in the IP concern. I'm interested learning recently he's 6'5". There's a bit of downward plane going on more so than most since he throws in the 80s. He induces soft contact more than the average. The reverse Archer.
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Random news and notes for MLB 2018
brewcrewdue80 replied to young guns's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Pretty sure Melvin came up with this idea throughout our losing seasons where we won a lot down the stretch and went from a top 5 or 10 pick to 11 or 14. I agree with trwi on there are going to be good teams that were expected to be .500 and instead are 10games under qualifying them for this who goes on to play and finish the season just above .500 while having the #1 pick? A bad team no matter what will be bad and now you're reducing them to the 8th pick which they had no chance of winning enough to get a top 5 pick. Fits Melvin's way of doing GM with his idea since he built .500 teams and never the 90+ win teams. I remember a few years back where it was basically 5 teams within 1 game of eachother for 7-12th draft when top 10 meant not losing that pick when signing a QO player....(something that doesn't exist now) You're looking at a team in that instance who may finish with the 16th best record in baseball and draft 1st just because they were pct points or 1game ahead of a team that winds up with 6th worst record in the league at that time. Gotta be a better way. Expose the revenue sharing and how it's being used by the teams receiving it. If MLB deems they aren't using it to the good of the team, remove their #1 pick. -
He refused 17mil from StL to test FA. Same as Cobb and Arrieta. Just cant believe they'd sign a 1yr deal after that unless it was equal or more. Which clearly a 2/12 isn't even near that for 1yr. Any signing team loses a pick. So that too comes in to play. Is 1yr of Lynn worth that draft pick? I think in this market the deals would need to be 3yrs when losing a pick maybe 2 and these guys want 4 or more at too high a price. For them just wait for injuries and your ask will come. Or wait til June draft. How long in to a season do the Luxury tax teams have to wait to where Lynn/Cobb are keeping them below? Something like that.
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Inevitable Trade of an OF?
brewcrewdue80 replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I like Aguilar a lot but if we got a deal similar to Jason Rogers for him I would grab it in a heartbeat. Shaw can play first if neither Thames or Braun are available. A couple of tickets (or any ticket) for Aguilar would be a nice add I think, considering I think he is going to be the casualty of this preseason :/ I don't see anybody giving up value for him. There's too many guys like Mark Reynolds available for next to nothing. Guys like Aguilar are kind of a dime a dozen. That's why Matt Clark and Jason Rogers aren't even stateside anymore. I'd be down to give him one more year if they can trade Braun to LAD, but he's just a AAAA masher who really doesn't even mash that well and should rightly be a DH somewhere in Asia or something like that, or a career minor leaguer. May be true. But that idea was to down a 4 player equal to Lind proposals before I stated that. -
Bandy gave us -.6WAR in 60 games. Vogt gave us .3WAR in 45 games but was -.5 in 54 for Oakland. Just add to Pina's workload and Games started, let Bandy play the 2-4 games he will catch for that stretch. Pina hadn't occurred his workload previously. Now you can give him another 15-20 starts so up to 100 and just need 62 games from your backup.
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Inevitable Trade of an OF?
brewcrewdue80 replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Aguilar is on the wrong side of a Platoon. Has far less experience than Lind did at the moment of that trade. We're talking a Rogers for Broxton/Supak type of deal for him. -
What if we don't add a starter?
brewcrewdue80 replied to jonescm128's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Right, I'd think 2b would move to SS and SS would move to 3b and at worst you have Braun at 2b. Anyway, the Brewers did add a stater in Chacin. He should fit well as the team's #4 throughout the season. Woodruff jumps in to the 3 spot. Suter can handle #5 during the short term. The bullpen is deeper than last season's. We'll be fine to start the season. There is the 10day DL now so you have that to send an arm to and call up another when it is needed. We may sign a guy yet as 3 of the big 4 are still out there. At an average of 500k missed per start, you would think one of them folds their stance.(I'd hope to firing that Agent) -
What if we don't add a starter?
brewcrewdue80 replied to jonescm128's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I feel the same as this. Kneble has too much going for him to trade at his team control. 1, he's cheap for a high end(nearing elite?) RP. 2, RPs are valued more than previously. You don't get the elite RPs for under 8million. Some it's near 15million. 3, Prospects as stated don't always turn out. A Great example of this to Kneble's value is Ken Giles who at this point has out Warred the 5 players Houston sent for him and by the looks of it, likely will continue. Will Smith is our bad scenario. Thornburg our best scenario. Only thing is, the good got 3 players and the bad got 2. The other scenario is that both those were traded as the franchise was in the Rebuild mode. Clearly we aren't in that mode no more. Phillies? In Rebuild mode when traded Giles. Kneble at this time, has the highest value among our pitchers. Hader is chasing at this point. You trade him when either he's too expensive(12+mil a year) and/or has 1year team control left. The only consideration I'm taking in trading Kneble is someone offers a top 20 type prospect in AA(where you'd understand a contending team trading away vs a AAA top 20) who is an unquestionable star in the making. Tatis Jr, Bichette, Whitley, Rodgers types. -
Inevitable Trade of an OF?
brewcrewdue80 replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
That List is stated on a 600 AB all things being equal. Braun gets more SBs, HRs, RBIs then likely than Votto with him winning on runs. These type of numbers crunching for Fantasy purposes can help find underappreciated bats vs a guy like Aaron Judge will be this year. (Judge, Arenado, then Santana) 1 will be a top 2 round pick the other a 10th round pick. Votto to Braun Judge to Santana. Altuve gets hurt so bad by this list. Just remember its a ranking to fantasy and not real life. I can't find it, but someone said play a Platoon with Braun/Thames. Thames is on the batter side for a platoon where he'd then likely have 120 starts vs RHP vs. Braun 42 vs LHP. May even be less for Braun. -
Is this a record? 71 pitches while scoring 7 runs? 11 hits. My word! How about 90 for Cleveland? So combined 161 pitches in a 13run combined game.... Hernan Perez 3 ABs 3 Pitches, he's in midseason form. Broxton 3 ABs 3 pitches. The box score I'm looking at has to be wrong or I'm just amazed at this batting approach from just about everyone. Cain 3 ABs 4 pitches.
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But what's a quality start? If Burnes is averaging 6+IP and under 3ERs a start he is pitching 2 outs more per start than in the minors. Now it's a little hard to believe he does that because expecting him to be a .95 Whip as he was last season vs Major League hitters is setting yourself up for disappointment. So with that said, he's likely not going 6IP. He had 13 of 26 games last year go 6+. I just think there's realistic goals in progression, and starting him #5 from OD is progressing him too fast.
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No, you clearly keep him down. There are a number of Starts a #5 wouldn't be used. You're looking at say 10weeks that's maybe 13 starts less the #5 skips. So let's talk 9 starts in 10 weeks. You're really counting on a Rookie pitcher to impact us in the playoff picture in that span? Everyday position player starters will impact much more that that SP. You also have a clock started where he won't make it through the season w/o being in the bullpen or sat for Late September/Playoffs. So now he's at 150+days for 22? starts and some BP innings? You start him 26-28 games he's sitting through the Playoffs or you're putting stress on his arm that could lead to TJ which is even worse then. And a good SP in Arb will be worth more than 10mil difference as a Super 2 vs just not being. If it's 10mil then he's not the SP we hoped and is a #4 type afterall. You can limit him to 4 or 5IP these first 10 starts in the Minors and extend him #11 and 12 so he's back to 6IP type workload. You then can expect him to be available more for September. If you are doing that at the ML level removing him after 4IP, we are going to have tired bullpens at various times during the season which if he's 1 or 2 games better than our #5 may be negated by that impact to the bullpen. Love to hear Cobb arrives today....fingers crossed
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Thank you for the input. That answers the question, when I already stated being a vet I understand why he might not be. Just as another comment above, says he's never played 1b in his career, thus my concern. I didn't know why he'd been kept out of 4games for that kind of inexperience. Injury would have explained this too.
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Here's my question. Where is Braun and what's keeping him from playing? I realize he's a vet that shouldn't need a lot of time to prepare for the season, but he's not playing his OF position. He's a rookie at 1b or 2b. He needs to be seeing 2 innings here, 3 innings there at those spots defensively. Sure it's only 4 games and the roster to pull from is large, but I'm curious if he's healthy or is he already suffering some injury?
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2018 MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects
brewcrewdue80 replied to jonescm128's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
.. and that was actually my follow up. If we, as rumored, are going to be looking for a pitcher at the deadline if we are in it .. I'm wondering which guy we could sell high on that is having a monster AAA season. Stokes is a good pull although not for this deadline I don't think? Stokes has quietly developed a good offensive package that reminds me of Yelich. He's got OBP skills and speed - we saw that all through his career. Now, he's added power. While's he's mostly played left, he's been on the same teams as Corey Ray, Monte Harrison, and Trent Grisham, which has generally left him no place on defense than left field. He's had a combined 55 games in CF and RF with no errors, and an assist. If he explodes... I don't trade him. I keep him. I move Broxton, instead. Stokes may not be as flashy, but he's steadier. Or Stokes plays left because it reads he has a noodle arm. -
Anyone else losing their patience?
brewcrewdue80 replied to Madhawk23's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
This is what we keep coming back to. Great, the offense is better. Is it better than the top five or six teams in the league? Because the pitching isn't so if the offense isn't either then this is a marginal playoff team at best. It doesn't take much improvement to get in the top 5 - 6 in offense. Dodgers averaged 4.75 runs which ranked 6th in NL and Brewers averaged 4.52. So a quarter of a run per game improvement is all they need which is like 40 runs per year. I'll leave it to the stat heads to figure if Yelich and Cain alone can garner an extra 40 runs over the course of a season but I'd wager they probably could. Sure taking Villar, Sogard, Perez, and Broxton as bats- BRef run value was -32runs Yelich and Cain came in both +16 or 32 runs. It's not quite 64 runs as the 4 Brewers had roughly 300+ more PAs and Yelich/Cain missed very little games. Of course, I believe Yelich will hit at least 8 more HRs this season if not 10-12. His Launch angle is so low and suit Marlins Park so a minor adjustment to lift more he'll clear more here. But the problem will be 1340 PAs between Yelich/Cain this year as last year. If we're splitting more time or one goes on the DL just once they won't reach that. But yeah, this offense is a lot better with these two 1/2. -
Anyone else losing their patience?
brewcrewdue80 replied to Madhawk23's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
So what? The point being made was that the offense could be great. My response was "compared to what?". Those other teams have equal or better offenses. It doesn't matter how that situation got to be, all the matters is that it exists. I'm not worried about where the rebuild is "supposed" to be, I'm concerned with where it actually is. I think Stearns deserves a whole lot more credit than he gets, no question. I think everybody on here is excited about the future or they wouldn't be on here. Having said that, why can't a fan want to compete for a title in 2018 AND in the future? That isn't a binary choice. You're not a bad or ignorant fan if you want to win now any more than you are a smarter fan if you want to build for sustained success. Signing a guy like Cobb improves the team to win now without mortgaging the future. As of the morning yesterday and thus far today, Cobb hasn't signed with anybody. Until he's signed away to a different team being upset that he's not on this team today, or yesterday, is redundant. Point on listing all those teams, is that they have bigger pockets. A lot here want to sign Walker, a lot on Arrieta, Cobb, Myself Lynn. And then also trade for another arm or expect to trade for that arm in June. There's a limit to what the team will spend and profit/stagnate it's profit. Mark A. isn't Illitch with a ticking death clock and overspend a typical Small Market payroll. I think the Yelich/Cain deals tripped up Stearns offseason goals once those two acquisitions stuffed a 25man roster with 6 OFs, 2 1bs, and 2 2bs with only 5 everyday spots. Sure you could option Phillips/Broxton and even waive Aguilar/Sogard/Villar but the move to trade the extras are now valued less on trade value. It's obvious we need to move someone so you want him gone I'll give you our 10th or lower prospect vs a 5th or better. Same happens on high contract players when traded. Stanton was 7+WAR last year but only returned 2 lottery tickets and a poor contract Starlin Castro. I'm going on the guess now that we're playing chicken with waives and injuries to open up a new trade suitor. We can go in to the season with these 8 extras and not change much for 2018 expectations. Another team has OD to acquire a Santana who helps them change their '18 outlook. We also could experience that injury ourselves and then we are thankfully glad we still have so and so on the team. -
2018 MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects
brewcrewdue80 replied to jonescm128's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Ponce gets knicked because his delivery is too violent that his control is effected and the RP tag gets pegged to him. Looks like their writeup is he slowed some effort done to improve that control, but a little lighter on velocity. I think there is more upside to him than given. He's improved since drafted, a big body, and that should handle a longer workload 200IP progression. I think of him as a Nelson clone. Who essentially was a #3/4 prospect that exploded last year due to his work ethic. It's actually a little creepy with both being 6'6" and progression at similar age. The fact that Ponce is learning how to reduce his effort for Control does leave an impression that he will be able to mix his speeds and gas up at times. Throw 92-93 but get 95 if he's looking at blowing a guy away vs. his control. Improve his K rate as a 2 strike effort. -
Anyone else losing their patience?
brewcrewdue80 replied to Madhawk23's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Taking the above underline Chicago-Bigger market greater resources-Full Rebuild Washington-Bigger Market greater resources-Full Rebuild(b2b #1 picks-Strasburg/Harper) Arizona-Bigger Market greater resources-#1 pick 3 drafts ago LA-Elite Market Elite Resources- GOAT potential Pitcher on team drafted Colorado-Bigger Market equal resouces-6 year stretch of losing seasons broken last year. Don't believe better than us StL- Bigger Market Elite Resources(Free picks handed to without money restrictions) Don't believe better than us. Milwaukee isn't playing on a fair field. Nor did they go through a full rebuild with #1 picks. For Reference Braun is this team's highest salary commit. 41st in Baseball 19mil LAD-Kershaw/Kemp 54.5mil WAS-Only Harper is paid more at 21.625 but D.Murphy is 17.5 and Scherzer/Strasburg team friendly 15mil=~69mil Ari-Grienke 31mil #1 1b in baseball drafted Ray=Anderson Godley=Davies Col-Desmond 22mil Pitching is worse StL-Molina/Wainwright 39.5mil Fowler/Carpenter 30mil Older questionable pitching no Lynn Cubs-Darvish/Lester/Heyward-70mil We're competing with these teams who are at an advantage as well to better draft positions where their players are further graduated than ours. Normal rebuilds at this stage would be 70 win projection and wondering how to tank for another top 5 draft pick. You must not have been here in '14/'15 when we all knew a rebuild was about to happen and 4-5years of such were coming. Stearns completely changed that. The team is above .500 and for this franchise, I'm excited about the future and not just focused on competing in 2018 to be WS better on paper to teams that should be embarrassed right now that Milwaukee is competing with them and it took them 100mil dollars(1Bil+ if youre the Dodgers) or tanking for 4 years. -
Just wow. Read the MLBTR. 10 pitches in a batting practice session. You go your whole offseason and get going for the new year, that anticipation, and 10 on the side pitches end all hopes for 2018 and to start the season in '19. He was knocking on the door and with this he's not even on a ML pre-arb contract. I looked for his Draft profile. Wow. He went 72nd to the Rays. Nowhere will you find him mentioned as a top 100 predraft draft prospect. Whoever had the balls to convince to not only draft Honeywell, but do so overslot is Legend Scouting.
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2018 MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects
brewcrewdue80 replied to jonescm128's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Love how a guy like Ponce will have 55,55,50,45,50 and that 4th pitch nets him an overall grade to 45. Then a guy like Diplan has 60,60,45,40 and gets 45 grade when control is 40? Another is Supak's: 55,55,50,50 overall 45. So there's your 2 most likely climbers next rankings and your most likely decliner in these rankings...Well there's Ray still clinging on to a top ten he hasn't earned.

