brewcrewdue80

Probably list two handfuls as Aces with a Handful Ace type pitchers on a great yeat for them. Top of Rotation become #1.5 types. Chase and Jimmy were both #1.5 ToR quality starters. But like some of thpse handful of Aces that normally arent, Chase and Jimmy werent 1.5s/ToR expectations/viewed as previously. Starting out 2 months in of the same quality could change that perception but at this point you're still seeing #3 projections for them. I think perception is best for ToR calling. Nelson takes the ball tonight and it should be a win. That perception. If youre OD starter/2nd start pitcher you should likely face OD/#2 starting SPs for the opposing teams. How are you perceiving vs other ToR type pitchers? (Not the Aces) Its like my post above, Is their guy going to likely hold us to 1-2runs and ours giving up 3-4? Or will ours be the 1-2 and theirs the 3-4?

Well first two years in that 4 are his cy young quality. The last two havent. Put the last two side by side and compare. Noted before his velocity WP. Ive said at least two times, but his #2 pitch went from reliably elite to barely average ML pitch. Theres nothing moving forward that would suggest he'll ever reach 14&15. Darvish pitched in AL and a lot more consistently. If youre going to commit 5years one is good with consistency, the other has been wild turned Ace back to wild and less velocity. In any heads up game its a wash. But taking your 4years FWar value it is likely Darvish is 18 and Arrieta is 10 moving forward.

My prediction Actual ERA Darvish 3.10 Archer 4.20 There goes the strikeout effects vs the Hard hit ignore.

Ive thought someone who goes over 200ip with under 3.36ERA. The IP is an avg put out for 33GS. As I know immediately that 200+ IP will be fought on how many reach that. Kershaw last 2 seasons? Now Bb/9 matter. I dont want a 200 IP starter who occasionally goes 7IP but usually 6. I think a TOR is someone who post 8&CG starts a handful of times total in a year. Its what kept Yo from achieving this moniker. Something like that. You hand the ball to him and 0runs-1runs given up comes to mind over a guy that gives up 2-4 consistently.

Its like Darvish said sign the 5/126 more than the Brewers offer and Ill giveyou the 6th year free. Id have ponied 135 for 6years and not blinked an eye. We offered Grienke 5/100 how many years ago? I legit thought it was going to 135-160mil to sign him gguaranteed not incentives. Want Lynn's first ask a 5/110? I mean hes gotta be at 5/70 max if compared to what Darvish just got AAV.

Man, thinking of Oakland snagging Santana to pair with Davis. What a thought. Puk oddly has a higher ERA for a big K guy and for 1 who doesnt give up HRs. You wonder how unlucky hes been with inherited runners scored? A side note to my idea. Yeah suspending the signings for 30days. Its a blink first game of chicken. The suspension hurts a team who has the highest offer that the player refuses to sign for. How bad do you want this guy? Up to offer 10mil before the agreed upon suspension deadline or go 30days w/o the guy you are set on. Pretty much look at it as 4-6million lost over 30 days for these top guys. Isholding out for 1more year worth it or an extra 10-20 total worth it? If we're worried on Luxury tax that 4-6mil does that make a team who wasnt a player now one? Or a 1st month out for the season injury? Think of it on Milw's side. Mark A. Tells Stearns to meet Darvish's demand or up the offer to this. Something where he just doesnt want to miss on one of the top 4 because Darvish isnt signing and come 30days in to the season, multiple teams now are in on the big 4 that weren't. It's a threat to both sides. And you know fans are going to give these 30days late signings flak when details of what the signing went down for and what the signing would have cost at this time.

I mean if Lynn supposedly wants to comp himself to 5/110 J.Zimmerman got, 5/125 out there for Arrieta I'd have to at minimum expect Darvish seeking 5/135 or really 6/160. I'd guess Milw put up a 5/120 offer to him but it's as far as they go. It's getting to the point Manfred needs to gather all these guys in a room and hear their sides and determine a date to accept or teams pull back their offers and suspend any FA that isn't signed 30days. The image is terrible right now with what? 9? of top 15 FAs not signed? Pitchers are supposed to report next week yet not one is signed atop the FA list. We're at a stage where as a fan, if I learn that Darvish or Arrieta had offers at or above 5/125 and didn't take it to hold out for more, I'm upset with the MLBPA all around with this collusion crap. That's something that if I were a subscriber to MLBnetwork or what tv brought me baseball games, I'm strongly considering cutting off. Can Anonymous just hack in to Boras' files already and Wiki expose them so we can see the crook and liar he is that mouths off when it's him that's the problem...Not one of his clients have signed this offseason.

As constructed now, I'd take the 2018 team over the '08 and '11 teams in a 7 game series. Boy, it's like reading that the game has shifted to RPs and that's why they are getting paid, but then having a quality SP because we don't match up well to the Cubs who hands down has nothing on our RPs. The Nationals hands down has nothing on our Bullpen. The Dodgers are scary but why wouldn't they be, they are in a League of their own, though their SP can be questionable. Of course that SP runs 100 deep and rotates at will with the new 10day DL. Point is, Kershaw can't start games 1-7. There is also the matter of trade deadline or even Sept 1st deadline where Verlander was acquired. Bumgarner has 2 years control left if the Giants aren't competing this year. Texas has Cole Hamels. Stroman/Sanchez/Paxton have 3 years remaining if you go the Quintana trade route. One injury can wipe out this concern to face Kershaw or Scherzer. Happened to us with Sheets. And we also don't have a 1 year window here. It's easily 4 and likely more. We don't have to set this team up perfectly to win it all on paper. But at times I feel reading here like the world is ending after this season and we will never have another chance. Just think about opening comment, this team is better constructed now than '08 and '11. Not just the 25man but clearly the 40man depth.

Arrieta it's simply regression. His velocity if you believe everyone got an uptick in FBs well his was down 1.2mph from '16 and 2.5MPH from '15. That's massive. His 2nd best pitch his cutter down to 88MPH 2.5MPH lower than '15. 56% ground ball rate to 45% use that flip and it went to Fly Balls. Regression and it's a lot. Unless he finds his velocity he's done ever being an Ace or heck even a #2 quality. I promise he will have the worst season of the top 4 SP FAs in '18. (when avg BWAR and FWAR) Being a workout freak didn't help his velocity dropping each of the last 2 seasons. Just stay far away.

I think a Santana trade to DBacks for prospects could work out well. Jon Duplantier would be a likely headliner and some upside names in types like Matt Tabor and Marcus Wilson to round out the trade seems legit. Wilson would replace Harrison's loss. Duplantier could replace our loss in a particular SP trade. Tabor was a '17 draft pick riser who may bring upside in the future as a SP. He's kinda that perfect get him before he arrives type. Edit Add: Reading MLBTR and this blurb on Red Sox and JD Martinez: “I don’t have a (timetable) on it because I really don’t know,” said Dombrowski to Rosenthal. “Perhaps if I was losing options, juggling three guys, or if we were in the starting-pitching market where there are four (top) guys, I would say, ‘Hey, I need an answer now, or I’m going to turn to this guy.’ But we’re really not in that situation.” Beyond the lack of competition for Martinez on the free-agent market, Dombrowski also suggested that the trade market could yet be a viable approach. The veteran exec called it “amazing” to be hearing of so many players available in trade talks at this juncture of the offseason. “At this time of year, you normally don’t get phone calls out of the blue about such-and-such being available,” said Dombrowski. “I have. I don’t know what’s going to go on.” That writeup listed the DBacks as a 1 year offer and not another link to another team. Red Sox down for 5-120/125mil or 1 year DBacks. It amazes me a guy that studly with the bat 5 years now can't find an AL team to give him a good deal. His problem simply is teams Baltimore/WhiteSox/Tigers/Toronto aren't pushing in '18 for wins and Texas/Seattle/Yankees don't need him with their options...Maybe if that "Ellsbury" trade occured from NY they'd afford him but otherwise he creates a logjam for them.

If you're asking about Darvish and catchers Lucroy is 2nd most caught for him at 21 games behind Geovani Soto at 26. Gimenez has 12. Lucroy he had a better slash line over Gimenez fwiw. Looking it up Gimenez hadn't caught Darvish since '14 season. Yasmani Grandal caught him the best of late with Lucroy 2nd best. Problem with Lucroy was Darvish had his 2nd highest ERA of catchers catching him which was something I always wondered on Lucroy. I always had an inkling he wasn't the best on Pitch calling strategy, something Peralta requiring Maldonado his personal catcher hinted at. Looking at that stat Lucroy was a .753-.777 OPS better catcher than Maldy, but a 4.43 to 3.99 ERA lost difference to Maldy. Now for fun, I'm looking up Nelson who's far better with Lucroy and far worse with Maldy catching him. Meanwhile the opposite for Anderson 3.24ERA Maldy vs 5.55 with Lucroy.

Maybe. IF we had Walker. IF Pina doesn't regress. IF Braun stays healthy. Are those things more, or less likely to happen? Does this help with the context? My comment was in response to the proposed lineup above being a really good offense, which it is. Having said that, Braun won't always be there, it is likely Pina regresses and Walker is not part of this team. So yeah, those are legitimate questions when calling this a darn good offense. Otherwise, I have no idea what your trying to point out. I didn't say anything about how many games better or worse the team would be. However, you failed to factor in the loss of Nelson into your calculus. They have improved the offense but the pitching surely isn't better off. To me Walker, Sogard, Villar, and Perez it doesn't matter who ends up being our 2b, we are having a really good offense with Pina regressing and Braun's health. It is all on the fact #1 and #2 in the batting order is solved way better than the mixing every other game done by Counsell. 3-5 are going to be great whether Santana is on the team or it's the platoon of Thames/Aguilar. Braun's health has either Phillips or the 1b platoon to slot in. I've argued this often here that it seems people expect a .800 or better OPS from EVERY position or else it's not a good offense. Arcia being just a .725-.750 isn't good enough. I say why? I posted this in the Alex Cobb thread. Houston won the WS and had 75 starts from 4+ERA pitchers some 6+ in there. They won 101 games and the WS. Well Houston had Carlos Beltran batting DH! of all things to the tune of .231/.283/.383/.666. Norika Aoki batted 1/3rd a season of PAs at .694 OPS. Brian McCann was their most used Catcher and he's been a .700-.760 OPS batter the last 4 seasons. It's good enough for a WS team to roll with a .700-.750 OPS catcher. Pina has been that and better in his last 4 seasons. I believe regression hurts a team far more when it's your 1-4 hitters sprinkled in with 5. 6-9 can be dealt with by putting lower in the order. Cleveland another 100+ win team had Kipnis with .232/.291/.414/.715 line which clearly is a regression from his .762+ coming in to the season, still won 100+games. Yelich and Cain are really improving this offense by so so much atop the order. Rather than hopes of a .300+ OB we got guys who likely bat .300. Last season it was Villar-71 games, Sogard 50 games, Thames 16 as Leadoff and Thames 90, Santana 29, Walker 27 batting 2nd. Perez has 12 combined and Broxton had 11 combined for 1 or 2. That is .293 Villar, .299 Broxton, .289 Perez, Sogard and Thames were good overall, but Sogard hadn't had a .300+ OB his previous 2 seasons with a soft slg. I just can't explain enough how great a Cain Yelich 1/2 will be atop this team. The 2008/2011 teams didn't have this quality atop the lineup. Weeks was .740OPS atop it in 08 and his 2nd best season prior to injury .818. Hardy led the 08 in #2 and Nyjer Morgan led it in '11. Man, I'm so pumped up for this team get on the field!

Maybe. IF we had Walker. IF Pina doesn't regress. IF Braun stays healthy. Are those things more, or less likely to happen? I took the bold line from the above post and quoted it in to the next post to respond. Braun wasn't healthy last year and the team won 86 games. If he stays Healthier than last year it only makes the team better. I mean he started 99 games last season. So what is your "Stays healthy" Games started referring to? 60 games? 75 games? returning to the 135/140/135 games played in the previous 3 seasons? Because at this time with current OF/1b logjam people are suggesting Braun essentially get 120 games started and that being more than enough out of him. Teams have bad players. Pina regressing isn't an alarming fear that will torpedo this team in to non playoff capability. Villar torpedoed last year, Braun wasn't healthy, Broxton was less exciting, the tail end of RPs torpedoed this team for half a season. Now some of that loss causing has been addressed either internally or FA signs. Somewhere it was listed we're a 77win team now. Wasn't it like 67/68 last year? As just an example. Pina regressing isn't costing the team 10+ games unless he literally has passed balls every time a runner is on 3rd and allows to score.

I agree, and would love to see another starter added via trade. But time is running out if they want to accomplish that before Spring Training starts. And it still leaves them without a surefire #1. Instead, it's a bunch of #3 guys with #2 potential on a good day. But who knows ... maybe they have some sort of analytic that sees Cobb, Anderson, Davies or Chacin as Ace material. I don't think they need an ace. If you can load up on 2/3 types, I think you can compete with that. I'd be fine with Arietta and Cobb with Anderson/Davies/Chacin following that. I don't think any of that group would be called an ace. Agreed on the desire to only acquire an Ace and a #2.5 addition isn't enough, because it is. Houston won the WS on the backs of Verlander addition for 5 Starts in September and the postseason(an Aug 31 trade) Houston had 28 starts from a 5+ERA Fiers. 22 starts from a 4.22ERA Mcullers. 15 starts of 6.12 ERA from Musgrove. 6 starts of 6.52 ERA from Paulino 4 starts of 4.08ERA from Martes. All told that is 75 starts of #4 and exceedingly worse starter pitching. Cobb is a 3.5 career ERA pitcher...in the AL East(huge argument for those clamoring for Archer) So, why isn't a Cobb addition that's better than that #4 and worse stats of a WS winner, not enough? I feel the same way if it became Lynn. I call for the two because the value(like Cain) is acceptable compared to potential of Arrieta/Archer and maybe even Darvish. Big thing here is you need a September/Playoff pitcher over a full season pitcher. Any number of guys can get "hot" for a 1month period.

Why in the world would the Brewers give up a 24 year old 3 WAR player for an expensive broken down 2B and an always injured pitcher? Let alone add more to the deal? Kipnis has had 4 3.9WAR or higher seasons in last 6 years. Salazar has had a 2.9 and 3.3 2 of last 3years. Put their 2015 WAR together and it was 7.8. Cleveland is logjammed at SP and we are with OF. You can also add Kipnis has 2 years remaining not picking up his 3rd year option as Hiura at that time should be locked in to a 2b roster deserving spot(we hope) IF the deal went down as suggested above for Santana and spare pieces, you have the potential on the two for 2 years and at the same time in 2 years you've now kept Burnes, Peralta, Ponce, Hiura, and Lutz who should become positive producers for us. It's a perfect bridge the gap with upside.

Why not include Sogard in this deal for the Indians? Something where they use Chisenhall at 3b and Ramirez at 2b, with a rotation between the 4? You acquire Kipnis one of Villar/Sogard is moving elsewhere but the 25man roster. If it's Villar, well, he's a poor defender but it's someone with 3b experience cheap with upside. The Ponce idea, I like him, he's already produced in AA which likely makes him #1 in next callups after Burnes(should he be traded) Personally when I watched him predraft and his tools it made me think of Nelson only with a worrisome delivery. I think Ponce is a guy who can take the Nelson progression and that upside is worth stashing. Throwing Diplan out there as a buy-low on Cleveland's part could be a sell as well as Bickford possibility over a guy like Ponce.

I'd be cautionary on Hiura advancing to the ML club and contributing positively. I'd expect more like a 600s OPS as your early callup...kinda like Brinson? Gotta recall now, the Brewers don't need a top 4 in the batting lineup. The logical 2b is going to be Kipnis. Which regardless of money, makes our 2b a lot better a call than suggesting to Villar returning to '16 form. Being concerned to Kipnis' OBP last year really ignores his 6years prior over .340 avg. One could wonder if a move to MP and the NL Central might produce more HRs than he has for Cleveland, something he was generally predicted to be in the 25HR range coming up but never achieved to that. He's also a better defender and up the middle defense is something lauded on the Stearns agenda.

Fun ride while it lasted. But yeah, the moment the Cubs forum got connected in on this, you knew it was going to get out of control. Appreciate the inside info and how HH worded it back. The Kipnis idea has it's ups/downs but the highs are a 1st rate 2b. Ceiling above Villar which, is something I look to over someone who may have a higher floor but not close to Villar's ceiling.(Merrifield) If you're going to make a move that can help propel this team in a WS contender he's the 2b you target when your trade piece fits for the other team. I think that's some of the difference with the Archer trade request, they don't need Santana he's redundant like he is now on this team. What's next is sitting here and awaiting Darvish seek what? 180mil while the offers are at 130mil. or 90mil if you're a Cubs fan.

No, I think its undervaluing Arcia/Woodruff/Santana plus prospects for Grienke/Adames and who? Id estimate these guys are worse than Phil Bickford because why even trade for Bickford vs at least a half dozen other equal options? I just dont get in any way how Arizona ends up with Arcia&Archer. For Grienke and 2 never heard of prospects (lottery tickets?) 20million is not buying Arcia&Santana/Woodruff I mean if Im the Brewers I send them Woodruff for the 20mil and Grienke and walk away only mildly disgusted.

ditto TB i mean its less than archer to milw straight up. Arizona makes a reverse monster return vs history

Super Bowl Sunday, Saturday posted No news today. Friday posted during that day. Hope he got to enjoy the weekend. I'd imagine some point today he posts on an update, if there isn't news to a signing before he gets to. Did leave an impression Darvish may make his decision today. I wouldn't expect moves to happen on a Saturday/Sunday so yeah being quiet those days would be expected.

Both leagues averaged 5.5 IP per start last year. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2017-starter-pitching.shtml Also, the NL had 7922 relief appearances last year, and the AL had 7737, so only 200 fewer relief appearances (virtually the same, more or less). The AL managers are switching out pitchers at the same time in the game, and just as often. The DH is not keeping AL pitchers from swapping out pitchers and creating favorable pitching matchups when needed. The relief pitching explosion is the new moneyball. Teams have found that with an average offense, average rotation, and a devastating bullpen, you can be a good team. Look at the 2015 Royals. THey were 6th in the AL in runs scored (slightly above average). they didn't have an ace starter (Chris Young and Edinson Volquez had good, not great years), but the back end of their bullpen was fantastic. Look at the way teams have used Andrew Miller. Dude's one of the best relievers in baseball, but has only been a closer one year. AL managers are "getting it" that getting through the lineup twice with your starter, and then going to your bullpen ( if it's good) is how to minimize run scoring from the opposition. We're probably less than a decade away from some teams averaging less than 5 IP per game from their starters for an entire season. I know people want to the pace of game to speed up, but this is how the game is played now. I can honestly see, as someone else said earlier in the thread, roster expansion being something the league or the players union brings to the table soon, as relief specialization becomes an even more integral part of the game. I'm going to assume some of that 5.5 is because keeping a NL pitcher through the 5th or 6th inning because they are due up in the order helps stretch out their IP, and meanwhile because of the DH, not having 3-4 pitch strikeouts but an advanced hitter who gets on base over 30% of the time extends the pitch count to AL pitchers that they are closer to 100 before the 6th inning vs an NL pitcher being in the 80s. I voted yes because the game is changing. Hitters are healthier, Pitchers aren't. Or, for pitchers, at least their improved health doesn't help them against injuries and performing longer. I fear the game gets a lot longer though with the DH(10-12mins longer) I'd implement a 2 batter minimum on RPs when making a pitching change. None of this Bring a Lefty in to face a lefty, single, now take out and bring a righty to face a righty, walk, now bring in another Lefty to face a Lefty. And I get the fans here that will say, well I like the strategy aspect, but it's a strategy too on choosing who will pitch to 2 batters if they don't end the inning on the 1st. If the RP gets out of the inning with his 1st batter, because of inning change, he doesn't have to face a 2nd hitter as you are not delaying the game to change pitchers at this point. The made the move for Catchers on the sliding rule when Posey had his leg broken, well how many pitchers need to get hurt running the bases before you change this rule? You have interleague and having an AL team play at home is a huge advantage and vice versa having an NL play at home. Maybe, with this change you add another 3-7games of interleague, or just remove it all together. What if changed the AL to Pitchers bat but both leagues have "passes" on 81 games to use a DH? Giving a guy like Ohtani a chance by Angels to get at bats. Keeps Bumgarner with batting if the Giants decide to. Meanwhile a guy like Nelson who was the Brewers Ace last year, a pass on batting when he starts, and you use your DH in that game. Then if a DH hurt himself, you could use a number of the next games with Pitchers hitting, or you play games with DH for your #1s and 2s or Pitchers who won't hit 75pts on the season aka Ben Sheets at the plate. Throwing it out there to please both sides...sorta.

The comparison by the numbers are different. The results between the two are relevant moving forward. If Nelson returns healthy pitching as he did last year, he's better than Archer as he's now got 3 quality pitches and improved control of that quality. Archer,s a 2 pitch pony. One pitcher is improving, the other isn't, so whereas Archer puts up #2 stuff in his past and Nelson #3.5, his improvement lifted him to #2 and that bolds well as he ages. Archer's stale progression has aging problems moving forward. Velocity drop the largest with injury concerns 2nd most.

Pretty much guessed on this in Dec, and Jan. Now its Feb under 2 weeks for Pitchers to report. Its absurd the 4 top FA SPs arent signed yet. This isnt like Lohse when we signed him costing a 1st round pick with a shaded history in pitching.

I only seen last 12mins of game due to work. Collinsworth questioning the GW TD not being a catch has to be one of the most embarrassing Broadcast call. Ertz was outside the 5yard line and to lose the ball past the goalline is unquestionable making a football move.