brewcrewdue80
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Everything posted by brewcrewdue80
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Davis will have 25 by the first of August. It will take until August of 2017 for Santana to hit 27. Davis may be 28, but he had not quite reached his peak, and that's part of the reason I didn't like this deal. Davis is a power bat in the category of Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, both of whom took until deeper in their careers to post the big numbers and ironically were also given up on by their original teams too soon. For the record, for those thinking I've criticized all Stearns' moves, I did post that I liked the Segura trade. See, you're believing last season's HR stretch can be duplicated for entire season. To me I believe it to be just a stretch much like Hardy's 20HR AS stretch that finished with 23?HRs by end of season? Davis just moved to a less hitter friendly home with Seattle to have 92games played at tough to HR territory. Add King Felix, Yu Darvish, plus some other ace I'm forgetting as his mound opponents. None of the NL Cent can compare to that. Santana is what? 3years ahead of Davis on his timeline. Next year will be like Davis 2014 for Santana.
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Santana had 8HRs in his 54game cup of tea ML action and 26 overall on the season 4teams he played for. I'd put him down for 27HRs and Davis 25. But obviously at any year to Santanas age he could grow. Davis isn't as likely. I'd take the bet. Whatever the winning HR total. Figure at worst $34. But low to mid 20s likely.
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What serious doubts do you have that Santana can be an everyday corner OF? He's already an upgrade defensively over Davis and at 21 and 22 he had VERY GOOD numbers in AAA. He was horrendous in his brief stint with the Astros in 2014 and last year he bounced back when called up with both teams. He's an immediate upgrade overall over Davis and 5yrs younger. I don't think Davis will ever hit 40HR. He'll more than likely cap out in the 30-35HR range if given 500+ ABs. Santana can hit 20-25HR so it's not a massive step backwards in that department either. The OF, and team, just got better with this trade. Nottingham is projected as an average-above average defensive catcher. Coulter clearly wasn't that as he transitioned to the OF rather quickly so you can cherry pick your stats to defend your stance all day (ie passed ball numbers). Reality is this trade isn't going to blow up in his face. Not only did this organization get a strong catching prospect (who could transition to 1b depending on that situation in the future) who's 2-3yrs away but also a young pitcher who could turn into a solid back end starter or long reliever AND it clears a spot for Santana to start and get the experience he needs that will only benefit him and the team moving forward when everybody else starts coming up this year or next. I just want to say, I believe Santana's HR power potential is greater than Davis. And with Davis going to Oakland, I'd bet Santana hits more HRs this season.
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I feel like a poster proposed Nottingham in a deal. Count me as happy to see Davis removed. Having acquired Liriano+OFs made him excess weight to be removed. Santana will still have to play well to earn his Starts. The Brewers get their catching prospect vs drafting which I'm in favor of waiting on and avoiding. When is the last season Oak didn't trade a Catcher?
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When will Luc get traded?
brewcrewdue80 replied to 1992casey's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The idea of Lucroy waiving his no-trade clause by getting an extension? His extension would be at low value. Wouldn't offer him over 7million/yr. Lucroy must feel he's worth more than that. But based on last season, concussion, players lost in trade, A team like Washington isn't going to give him market value on extension. -
Yeah, I work for a company designed to be fair and stop solicitation and seniority. We have a waiting area meant to keep us from roaming around the areas members will congregate. You're supposed to get written up with potential to be fired if you solicit loops. Not that that rule is adhered to by our manager, who's absolutely garbage, but he's threatened to fire me already on occasion and just gives the vibe he dislikes me due to my history and knowledge of how the job used to run with ease and less dissertation with the caddy core. I think he purposely has assigned better loops to newer and local caddies to gain the security of them not quitting having this kind of stretch of non-money making rounds I'm going through. It's just depressing me because the club and course has gone to he'll it's going to get redone end of March, and half the membets/workers/caddies just don't give a crap no more. Accelerating the deterioration of the course. What used to be premier of South Florida where Vice Presidents come to play on visit...is a dump. No pride whatsoever left and I don't want to be here being contractually bound to. The idea to voice a continuation request of the good tippers, hinders on getting to caddy for them at random in the first place. And like I said It hasn't happened since 2013 for me.
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My Luck is bugging me. If you hadn't figured out, I work as a traveling caddy. Much of my income is based on tips. Currently, I'm working at a private club where you work for members and most of the time you have a good idea what's coming because of their history what they give. Some it's 20, 25, 30, 40, 50, 60 and then 100. Don't usually get between 60-100. There's a core of members who give 100. I've been down here for last 2 seasons(currently month 11 of 12 total) and not had the luck of falling on 9 outta 10 of these core 100 tippers. I continuously get the 20, 25 tippers. Caddy ahead 100 tipper, caddy behind 100 tipper. I fall on the garbage 20 tipper right in between. Arrive earlier, late. Sit and wait. Do 36holes. Doesn't matter. Why say it's bugging me? We have a guy we call Mike the Mouth. He's new this season. Guy in 3+months has probably landed on these 100tippers 20 times already. 1 now requests him. Happened on the 4th time he fell on his bag....I've never had him. Guy's first 2months got him 4 times and in his 3years being a member, I've never caddied for him. This luck I know is costing me easily 1thousand a month and in the Mouth's instance, he'll make more than 2500 than me this month and the guy is a terrible caddy...Mouth nickname on a golf course is not what you want be nicknamed. A number of members refuse to let him carry their bag because of his annoying mouth. It's just frustrating because I've built such a repoire with the members, nobody looks at me and says find me another caddy. It's just these 100 tippers don't know me because they had me oh that one time back in 2013. To seriously go almost a full calendar year not caddying for this core of members when they play 3-4times a week 75% of the season is beyond unlucky. I'm the Jean Segura of caddies. nothing but singles. No triples or HR 18. This guy bats 3 for 6 on the week with HRs. And this has happened to me after the bullit year I've endured through.
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I find the love for the rebuilding process curious around here
brewcrewdue80 replied to Oxy's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Wow. Only read 1st page. How long for a .500season then a playoff season. Here's what I'll say. The team has acquired depth. Say for a cpl positions. This year is a 70win look of season. Go to 2017. What have these younger talents become? Plus what did we acquire in trade? Maybe '17 there is a chance at .500. I'd expect a better chance in '18. And from there you never know. We need a TOR SP to arrive to think playoffs. I will say that the way Stearns is going, sustaining a .500 team looks to be coming 2020 through that decade. And not so much a 2-3yr window. The key will be if/when+how many TOR Starters we grow in the minors. Kodi,Ponce,Hader?, Lopez, that 5th pick we have coming? It's that number of potentials where you assume #3s/4s at worst result in .500 potential. Now get their bests of the talent and we're talking playoffs. This youth movement is 19/20/21 you keep that churning, when you hit on that aged prospect you're staring at a decade of position filling like Arcia is to be. -
So far, still not a clear answer. The best though would be the clause that the Angels are on the hook for their paid amount to Hamilton regardless what team he plays for. That the money goes along with him in trade. Plush, taxes do amount a lot in this. Down here in Florida He'd just have Fed taken, no state tax. The opposite I think in regards to Toronto I believe I heard who taxes more. That's why I call it a nightmare if he'd be traded here to Milwaukee and his contract incurred 3 states of payment. Angels, Brewers, and tbd team we traded him too, taking Texas' payroll out of it trade before season. I don't know how often trades like the Hamilton suggestion has happened. Where part of his contract is being paid for in order to make a trade only for him to get traded again. I assume a lot of money contracts are 1year or 2year deals. Btw, looking at Texas BRef It would appear Texas is paying just 2mil this year and 2mil next year. That LAA is paying 26.41mil each of the next two years. At 2mil, there's really no reason to trade him unless you're really crunched at your 25man. Im torn in feelings, because Ortiz I was so high on, only to see him fatten up. Having drafted Tate and Matuella, it would be easier to trade him now. You'd still have that TOR pitching potential in your minors. Now would be the time to snake one of their minor's TOR potential. I would ask for Tate or Ortiz but not Matuella because of the already TJ. They do have Hamels for 2years. There's a pairing with Lucroy in contract length there. And it is Beltre's final year. It'd be interesting to actually see what Texas could do if they could go through a season w/o major injuries to their starters. I feel a little better of a deal in late June/July with them vs this offseason. Because the pieces from them would be clearer on what to acquire. Profar/Odor one needs to be moved. And maybe with Texas injury history, they'll be wanting a pitcher to sweeten the deal for Lucroy that we could provide.
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About Hamilton's contract. The Rangers were given the money to pay him. They'd have to trade him and that money to remain 6mil player no?. He wouldn't be getting 3paychecks just 1 no? From whichever team possessed him?. Can someone clarify how his money situation would work if traded? The headache to deal with 3states or more on taxes?!
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Here's the thing. He chooses to sign this period Brewers are tapped for 2015. And penalized 2016/17. Their interest would have to be on 2016 signing deal with others. Otherwise signing him today looks very dumb because they wasted making any significant signs this past July. I'd expect the Dodgers to just throw 10-20million on him if the bidding is that high. They'll be limited the next 2years so sign it big now.
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This is exactly my point. Scooter has 1000+PAs and has regressed. It's proven now he's a platoon player only. The upside no longer exists. Yeah Walsh hasn't played. Someone has to give him that opportunity to find out what he's got. He has AAA Abs. Seems to me the argument against is he'll be worse than Gennett guaranteed... oh my God! If that happens we don't win 71games we only win 67. Just shy of making the playoffs.... We have the opportunity to play upside players. Scooters upside is lefty platoon bat . 280/.315/390 for a barely .700OPS...for a platoon bat? Which ought to be in the .800s if that's what you are. Get the switch hitter with .360OB+ potential 10/10+ PAs.
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I don't know maybe having 28XBH in 114games 6HRs 1SB and only 12BBs? By losing his shine I mean what's his upside? Platoon bat 8HRs 2SBs and adequate defense? Shine is over for me. He offers 0 Plus skills anywhere. Just Average or below average. Walsh only had 54XBH 13HRs 17SBs and oh over 100BBs last season batting from both sides of the plate. a near .400OB pct. You're proud of .339 against RHP. The franchise just has better options to play someone with at least a Plus somewhere vs avg/below avg. Walsh's worst OBP in any of the minor with 10games+ played in a season is .313. That would be about the avg. Gennett has given the Brewers the last 2 seasons combined as a platoon type of bat. Tell me what Shine he presents anymore? You are comparing minor league stats to major league stats...do you not see anything wrong with that? Your argument holds no water until he performs at the top level. Don't you think there might be a reason he was left unprotected and even able to be selected in the Rule 5? You act like he is some sure bet to produce. He was 25 at AA, already had prior experience at AA, and even had a good chunk of at-bats at AAA. Sometimes a club has to decide who to protect and who to save and allow a guy like Walsh to risk being taken. The Brewers have to play Walsh for what 80% of the season? Or he's returned to Oakland. How many competing teams are going to use a 25man spot to play a rookie 2b? Oakland has Sogard for now, Semien with Barretto to consider first. Sure Walsh hasn't had any ABs at ML level. Scooter has and it's not looking like he'll every be anything but 2war at best. Meanwhile Walsh who broke out is a switch-hitter a .400ob record. More HR/SB potential... there's just no reason to not see this guy get PAs who grew last season vs a guy regressing for a 2nd straight year? If Scooter gets dropped and magically produces that 2WAR season, will anyone shed a tear here we missed out on that? Upside not higher floor is what should be given PAs if possible.
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Being a redbox user and not a theatre goer, I've only seen Mad Max. I thought that movie was poor. Can't believe there Best Picture ties to it. May go rent the other nominees that I can.
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What to get next.... A putter. Finding the putter for life that will perform for you will lower your scores/win far more money than any other club you'll put in your bag. That putter will pay for the next clubs. A hybrid probably next because how great they are vs the iron version. A 5hybrid, there's no rough lie that club can't handle.
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I don't know maybe having 28XBH in 114games 6HRs 1SB and only 12BBs? By losing his shine I mean what's his upside? Platoon bat 8HRs 2SBs and adequate defense? Shine is over for me. He offers 0 Plus skills anywhere. Just Average or below average. Walsh only had 54XBH 13HRs 17SBs and oh over 100BBs last season batting from both sides of the plate. a near .400OB pct. You're proud of .339 against RHP. The franchise just has better options to play someone with at least a Plus somewhere vs avg/below avg. Walsh's worst OBP in any of the minor with 10games+ played in a season is .313. That would be about the avg. Gennett has given the Brewers the last 2 seasons combined as a platoon type of bat. Tell me what Shine he presents anymore?
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I don't really see his contract as a negative. He's probably say he'd do it again if he had it all over. He got his deal as a 2nd year player. He'd be on his 3rd arb year before Free Agency. Matt Wieters just got 8.3mil last season....Former #1 prospect. Castro and Ellis as 2nd year arbs got 4 and 4.25mil respectively. What Lucroy is being paid this season. Wilson Ramos a very talented catcher but injury filled history 2nd year 3.55mil. Money history isn't great for Catchers. Lucroy locking in guaranteed money for 1 cheap Option year as a Catcher? Remember You could slide in to Catchers when he signed his deal. Buster Posey had just broken his leg in 2011. How great is the prospect to catch beyond another 6years? 1 injury like that, may have derailed his career. At least he guaranteed 10mil+ was going to be paid to him. Also, what complaint has Lucroy made about his contract? Aside from 2years left on it and he's getting a 70win rebuilding team to play for through it?
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Maybe Gennett is an odd man out. Walsh or him. Let's be honest. Gennett is losing shine as a ML 2b. What would the team really be keeping him for? Think he's fallen to AAAA status. You waive him go Villar,Walsh,Hill,Rivera rotation among 2b/ss. That's if Walsh&Rivera appear ready OD. Hill too. If he doesn't look all to good, may just waive him keep Gennett. Truth is Hill,Gennett they aren't part of the future like Diaz. Who really cares which stays, is waived, or traded?
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Guessing Wagner is on the 40man to compensate Anderson+Hill to the Brewers 40man. I think Wagner is being valued as late inning potential by the Dbacks with closer history. Villar takes over SS which I wondered all along if he'd beat out Segura in the first place come OD. Kudos to poster in rumors to grab Hill, expect Platoon with Gennett maybe flip him by deadline idea. Now it's happening. And we have a 19yr old lefty to graduate to 2b a future beyond Gennett tenure. To be honest I start questioning 90losses much less 100 forthcoming. Some AAAA player we've attained will turn out. 3b/Cf/SS one of them will succeed. Getting Anderson, I like. Do we have a SP glut? Sure but let's consider the idea of combining 1of the SP with Garza in a trade itself. Anderson doesn't hurt giving up Peralta or even Anderson himself. How about the team adopted a 6man rotation with Lopez/Davies/Garza/Anderson/Peralta/Nelson?. You reduce Garzas starts through the trade season and get that 13mil option a 0% chance while giving him the chance to pitch back to career norms. Either way we got another 19yr old added to the true goal. Future rebuild.
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2016 International Signing Thread
brewcrewdue80 replied to Jenkins5's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
It's kinda hard to bid on worthy players when teams are paying through the roof for them with taxes. Lara's signing alone was more than the Brewers team allocation of money. Only 10 players of MLB's top 30 rankings signed for less than 1.5mil last year. 3 under 1mil. Brewers had 2,389,000 to spend before taxes incurred. They traded one of their slots I know of away noted above at 287,500. Many teams blew through their limit. If the club keeps reducing payroll...Braun somehow being traded. Maybe this is a year they go out and spend themselves. Team is currently lowest payroll estimated in all of baseball. Maybe you go out and put 25mil towards players and taxes. But even at 25mil that's pretty much 14mil. If you're targeting the top of the rankings group that's 4-5 players on average. I'm happy if the team signs just 1 Gilbert Lara type in a year. And pickup that Orlando Arcia unknown on the cheaper spectrum. -
They grade his pitch framing as declining as an excuse not to value him as high. Well, lets see 5+ERA Pitchers, guys like Nelson/Peralta this isn't exactly a parade of nailing the corners staff Lucroy got to work with. Team overall was tied for 4th worst BB/9 average. This after being tied 7th best in 2014. 11th in 2013. As to Gallo. We're an OPS loving type of group. Pretty confident Gallo at worst goes .225BA-tbd OB-.500Slg. So saying if he had 0 Walks his .225/.500 is a Minimum worst of .725OPS. Now his OB avg in the minor is .111 higher than BA. I'll go .070 as a poor guess and you had that and this guy is a minimum worst .795OPS. If that is him Failing, I'll take that and be on my merry way. The problem with Brinson for a return is you've got 3-5 prospects who have the same projection to be 20/20+ batters very athletic on foot. What you don't have is a Lefty 40+HR bat coming up to play 3b in the minors. Maybe someday Lara will ascend to that talent but its a number of years away if ever. Future trades are going to be bigger and better with Gallo than Brinson. Josh Donaldson after a .255-29HR/.798OPS season brought back a mentioned Franklin Barreto, Sean Nolin, Kendall Graveman, and Brett Lawrie. Imagine if Oakland waited one more year...of course the home parks surely helped his numbers. MP is a hitters ballpark 40HRs may be a low expectation vs something MR. AL MVP just achieved for 1st time in career.
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I'm going the other route. I'd take Gallo. Guy is going to be 22. At 20 he batted .232 in AA. Last season age 21 .314. AAA-.195 and MLB .204 He has .250+ career minors avg. This is a future .900OPS+ bat for 3rd base mind you! It's not 40HRs in his bat it's 50-55HRs when he plays 140+games. 42 in 126 games in 2014. Oh and he's Left Handed... It's like the Kris Bryant talk he wont hit for a BA...Well? .275 with 199ks. 26HRs. Almost 6WAR as a rookie. Gallo is a little less than 2years younger. It took Chris Davis til he was 26 to breakout for 30+HRs. Gallo is going to be 22 this entire season. Watch him grow in to a super star and be for Milw vs Texas.
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Wow, all these responses and not one mention what I believe this signing is about? Twilight of his career that virtually began with Milwaukee. Fans are going to be fond of him. Simply going to guess he gets to fill a few extra seats in Spring Training, sign some memorabilia and then Retire as a Brewer. Craig Counsell as the Manager whom looking it up was part of the trade along with Cappy/Overbay/Spivey/Moeller/De La Rosa for Richie Sexson/Shane Nance and PTBNL. He announces his retirement with Counsell in attendance and maybe you find a coaching job or some other office job within the organization for him. I was thinking and reading wiki he's a rare individual to survive twice having Tommy John surgery. The 2nd mind you in 2007. The Brewers stayed with him in to and through the 2010 not having pitched a ML inning in 2008 or '09. That has to fall on Capuano as being special and by Milw continuing his career make him want to retire as a Brewer in a Brewer uniform.
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I feel good about the return that will come. The Rangers return that has been rumored the Brewers are asking for Gallo. If Gallo is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball, you're looking at that kind of value in return to start. Boston wants him, it should cost Rafael Devers. Washington wants him, I'd guess Trea Turner. Rays-Blake Snell Cubs-Schwarber Astros-Any combo of their top prospects. Bregman I'd let them keep to get say Tucker/Martes combo. Reed/Martes combo. I think with Bregman giving up the #1 prospect in their system who I'm not enamored with would result in not getting that 2nd combo of player you'd like in Reed/Martes. Am I aiming too high? Well, if Gallo is the asking price, no not at all.
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Brewers Trade Value Top Ten
brewcrewdue80 replied to Eye Black's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
This thread isn't ranking only the Brewers you'd actually consider trading but who'd have the highest value if you did. Prospects have lots of value. But this isn't 2011 where a Zach Grienke trade is on the horizon and our prospects our getting traded. Why list any prospects when Arcia will not be traded in the next 6years minimum. Non-Trade means 0 value. I don't need to pretend there's a rebuild in place on the prospects already leading the way on this new rebuild.... Arcia is by far the best prospect this team has had since Braun. To give him Trade value? Let's start a topic that has a 10times more likely event of happening. Will Arcia play 11-14years as a career Brewer? Because to me he's the Brewers Franchise player starting this year and is to be compared as this franchise's Derek Jeter, who only played for 1team. You want to trade him. Lucas Giolito or Julio Urias. No other trade needs to be imagined. So now what's Giolito's or Urias' trade value, we got them let's trade them away? That's how I feel by listing Arcia. He won't be available in trade. Phillips too honestly. You're trying to acquire the best future talents. Not trying to acquire a Jake Arrieta or Jake Degrom. Where you'd have to send Arcia and Phillips to get one of them. How desolate is the franchise's future after that?

