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brewcrewdue80

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Everything posted by brewcrewdue80

  1. brewcrewdue80
    Lauer isn't a #1-2 type pitcher. He's posting #3 numbers while carrying scary #4-5 Fip numbers. He gave up 27HRs last season and the HRs aren't coming from nowhere. Just another average year 1.3HRs/9. I think the fact he's left handed is where he outperforms his expected Fip/ERA. He's useful til he's not. Definitely not worth an extension. Think about it. Nobody clamor that he should pitch from the bullpen. He doesn't have a plus pitch to his name. Looking it up and didn't realize not only are Burnes, Woodruff, &Lauer FAs after 2 seasons but so is Houser. That does bring merit towards adding a Cabrera or Braxton Garrett to the staff. Not an offseason move that makes sense for Milw but mid-season or next offseason.
  2. brewcrewdue80
    I'm thinking where Milw sits is similar to a timeframe before making the trade for Adames. No pitching trades will happen until right up to or after Opening Day. We've had some minor injuries that caused some delay to starting the season healthy. Team needs Houser and the article is just clickbait. When the team enters Opening Day healthy and more options than roster spaces, then they'll look to swing a deal. Other teams such as Boston(who just lost Story for the season) will suffer injuries and have a need we could fill. More desperate means higher return.
  3. brewcrewdue80
    I'm thinking where Milw sits is similar to a timeframe before making the trade for Adames. No pitching trades will happen until right up to or after Opening Day. We've had some minor injuries that caused some delay to starting the season healthy. Team needs Houser and the article is just clickbait. When the team enters Opening Day healthy and more options than roster spaces, then they'll look to swing a deal. Other teams such as Boston(who just lost Story for the season) will suffer injuries and have a need we could fill. More desperate means higher return.
  4. brewcrewdue80
    Is that true? I thought it was had to be on Opening day roster? I guess it could just be assumed that if youre playing you top 100 prospect 172days(full season) why wouldn't you start from opening day? Also I feel like it's 182-184 calendar days based on teams calling up guys like Bryant by game 10 while earning the 7th year team control.
  5. brewcrewdue80
    Looking at Savant, Houser's problem is throwing a lower 1st strike pct and throwing less pitches in the zone for strikes overall. So he's battling behind in the count to often the last 2 seasons. Also why he's bottom of the league for Starters and k percentage. I'd definitely put him in the bullpen. He's one of those SPs that will go from 4+ERA to below 2.5ERA lock down relief pitcher. I think his trade value increases when he becomes that in '23. Regardless what he does this season he'll have some trade value. Take his lower salary and SP/RP ability and hang on to him for '23
  6. brewcrewdue80
    Last 2 Lions drives 0 stops. Plowed right down Barry's defense. You betcha he's gone. If not I am as a fan lost all faith in GB decision making.
  7. brewcrewdue80
    Traded you mean. Rodgers lost it this season. Last game we see him play.
  8. brewcrewdue80
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes_list_of_the_most_valuable_MLB_clubs Milw sits 25th. I seen a 2021 page that showed Milw had the 18th highest revenue that season. You're right about Kansas City being near certainty for retraction. Miami though is the worst in all of baseball consistently. Tampa #2. Oakland. Still feeling 1000%? This isn't pre-Miller Park. The franchise has moved up from bottom of the barrel 20+years later. Miami would save thousands of miles for each team traveling expenses. A stadium saved them but they are still bottom of barrel. Oakland is on the clock with being saved. I think those 2 teams are 1a/1b. Surprised Pittsburgh was/is ahead of Milw because it's blatant their managing of the franchise will make no attempts of winning. It's been 30 years since a division title carried by Bonds. 3 wildcards total since then carried by McCuthchen. There isn't a division title coming for them at least 3 more years from now at best.
  9. brewcrewdue80
    What I'm telling you is via statcast that Urias for multiple seasons now hasn't done either significantly. To expect someone his frame to hit the ball harder for multiple seasons and immediately is setting urself up for failure when you extend him. Calling him a 725-760OPS future is realistic since to be higher than that, he'd have to do 1 or both of those things. This is in reference to his Career high OPS 2 years ago and your saying he can be 800 OPS when I said it wasn't likely he'd become one to be worth an extension. 2B his bat profile would be fine. But 3b The thread topic, his bat and arm strength/defense leave him as just meh when seeing him as a 3b long term. If the bat doesn't stick at least at/above 725OPS with his defense he's a borderline AAAA player there.
  10. brewcrewdue80
    This is definitely one of those, trade offer was so good you had to accept it. A Ball numbers and height on the Freddy Peralta similarity line. 6Hits/9 4BB/11Ks per 9. I wonder if he's a 40man rule 5 protection require since he began in 2018. Still about 2 years away. (Checked he wasn't this offseason, but I would assume next the Brewers would need to add him)
  11. brewcrewdue80
    Currently there are 30 teams. Only 2 teams to be retracted. Money would be A's and Rays with Pittsburgh 3rd. Consistent top 18 fan attendance. I'd even wonder on Baltimore and Miami in the mix. All 5 teams before Milwaukee. Seattle too.
  12. brewcrewdue80
    Forget expansion. Retract to 28 teams. If they're reducing division playing games and playing eachother. Saturate the talent with more money to pay them. Play more 4 game series, less travel. 7teams making playoffs each conference is half the league. 2 teams; 52 less availble players playing nightly will help improve the product fans see. Revenue shared is increased to the remaining receiving teams. Making 32 to have 8 divisions now you're awarding 2 more auto qualify playoff teams which with saturating the league with less talented players likely sees below .500 team yearly qualifying while a wild card team misses with a better record. Remember we're playing everybody more equally so a bad 4team division can't have 1 team sneak above .500 because somebody wins when playing versus eachother. It would work I suppose if they adopted top 3 division winners auto bids and best 4 remaining records qualify for playoffs.
  13. brewcrewdue80
    Up there with Cirillo as a fan fave during those seasons. Like Yount had that great stache.
  14. brewcrewdue80
    It's all dependent that his average EV improves by more than 1MPH than his best season or he drops his K pct below 15pct(career 21.4%) I just dont think he has that with his body type. Certainly not speed. It'd be great if I was wrong. He's shown consistent numbers that statcast expected and what he finished the season were about spot on. So again the way to better is harder hit balls or lower k pct.
  15. brewcrewdue80
    Devers bat is Elite. This is Josh Donaldson while in prime territory. He's younger than Adames while playing longer than Adames has. There is the DH for Devers' bat skills to maintain that contract value. Adames meanwhile value is from the defense and bat production for SS position. His future bat production wouldn't be carried in the DH position. Devers contract should have near 0 relation to what Adames contract would look like. The bat profile is so far behind. Add the age with added team control extension to same age is 8years beyond. Adames is a defense first so lop off 2 years as age decline will affect him more. (Sooner than Devers) Think I posted somewhere 8/175 similar to what Swanson got as the best comp you could get. Side note: I remember a poster here who was all in on getting Devers I think when he was 19/20. (Probably around Travis Shaw trade time) Turbo or Nate or maybe the one who said they would leave and did. What an impact that could have been.
  16. brewcrewdue80
    Devers bat is Elite. This is Josh Donaldson while in prime territory. He's younger than Adames while playing longer than Adames has. There is the DH for Devers' bat skills to maintain that contract value. Adames meanwhile value is from the defense and bat production for SS position. His future bat production wouldn't be carried in the DH position. Devers contract should have near 0 relation to what Adames contract would look like. The bat profile is so far behind. Add the age with added team control extension to same age is 8years beyond. Adames is a defense first so lop off 2 years as age decline will affect him more. (Sooner than Devers) Think I posted somewhere 8/175 similar to what Swanson got as the best comp you could get. Side note: I remember a poster here who was all in on getting Devers I think when he was 19/20. (Probably around Travis Shaw trade time) Turbo or Nate or maybe the one who said they would leave and did. What an impact that could have been.
  17. brewcrewdue80
    Not big on a Urias extension. He's a small guy with below ML avg Exit velocities. Already showing signs of speed decline. He's not flashing spikes where he has bust put potential. Not a strong arm. Maybe if your intents were 2b usage the bat/defense would linger beyond next 3 years. It appears to me this may be his ceiling. Not capable to exceed 800 OPS. His floor is extremely high. Has the proper launch angle, K pct, BB pct, where he sits in the 725-765 OPS. If his EV avg touched 90+ this season everything jumps for him. 87s at 5'9" just keeps him around 240BA. Slower running as ages decreases his BA unless his K rate drops in to 14-17pct for some time. This year probably fits perfectly to see if healthy and jumps that EV to project higher future value, or he remains where he is and trade him next offseason while having some value.
  18. brewcrewdue80
    Does not. There are reasons to be dfa/waived. Not having options being a big one.
  19. brewcrewdue80
    The Brewers pitching lab isn't so much as improving the pitcher but adjusting the quantity of which pitches they use. Seems typically to be working on 1 of the breaking ball pitches and throw that pitch more often signaling it as their best pitch. The quote on Twitter mentions a splitter. I think a number of our pitchers have worked on change ups. Combine with fastball he may find a 3 pitch mix that just improves how effective he is. Looking at his Fangraphs pitch mix, he went FB(sinker), Slider, Curveball, and Change-up. Move to velocity on the pitches and his FB has lost 2MPH while changeup less than 1MPH. Not surprising his changeup value was his worst valued pitch. Wilson did have his best season in GB%. That said not all is rosy for Wilson. For his career he's not had 1 pitch value reach a 1+value. Definitely had all pitches he threw -1+ value with FB -6+ and the Changeup -7+. Sorta a troubling sign when you think about maybe relief pitcher he'd become effective using 2 pitches and getting 3 outs. So he's a project. Say the FB velocity improves, the changeup velocity reduces, and his new pitch is avg he turns in to a better Jason Alexander. Maybe they dump his Slider or curveball. He did toss 18Innings vs Milw giving up 8 runs on 4 different games, and his last start of 22 was an 8IP shutout. At this moment he's probably more likely to be waived and traded than pitching Milw games.
  20. brewcrewdue80
    Solid signing. Adds a vet for depth. Maybe team does the piggyback Lauer/MileySP with Houser/Ashby the finishers if needed. I'd also wonder on the 6man rotation but keeping the big 3 on their typical 5 days. There was a trade provision adding to Mileys salary if he were. He just may be depth til opening day and traded if we're healthy but another team suffered a TJ casualty before OD. I'd be fine with Houser to the bullpen. See if his stuff plays up. I think he's a better pitcher than the numbers show. Loses so many times on dribbled infield hits off soft contact.
  21. brewcrewdue80
    Dodgers aren't spending to remain below luxury tax. They are locked in to Otani signing as a FA next offseason. Bauer being activated left them with no wiggle room to sign a big money contract. Side take on Correa. Guy has 70Mil on table for 2years, opts out. The medicals are sending red flags. Time to wonder does Correa feel what is being found out affecting him in 22 and knows he's about to crumble to someone who should be out of baseball. Rather than take 70mil and disappear, let's get 10+years and more money to ride the IL with. He may feel his only chance to make over 100mil the rest of his career was sign now before he Chris Davis'd and torpedoed his value. He's going to accomplish that higher than 70mil future. But now he and whoever he plays for is creating a Games played/PAs yearly incentive laden deal. Gotta be a nightmare for MLB with salary implications. I'm thinking it's going to be like 120mil guaranteed and multiple trigger levels for 10-11 seasons. Example like 375PAs 1Mil 425PAs 2mil 475 3mil 525 3.5 600 4mil 650+ 4.5M Talking 18Mil in that idea he could add to a base 12Mil salary. Clearly the Mets are roided to be over the luxury tax and each level adds to their penalty. The length on the contract has to be a precedence setting deal for that type of structure. Does MLB or MLBPA want it set? Is another question.
  22. brewcrewdue80
    The way I'm reading the OP, I'd definitely believe the teams who pick 1-6 are the teams that aren't allowed on the following seasons. I could see how a 13th place team moving in to top 6 and having a losing season the following where they were/are more likely to pick in top 6, arguing that they should be allowed to stay but I mean they would only drop less than 6 picks? How you going to win the argument when you were just awarded an earlier pick the year before. It's a great move in the right direction to penalize a team tanking multiple seasons in a row, to go with the rewards for playing a top 100 prospect from the moment a season begins, to the prospect gaining a full season service time finishing top 2. Tanking teams wouldn't want to play their top prospects until forced by the prospect. Kris Bryant the full example not being played in Sept and held back even further from Opening day just to gain the 7th season team control while tanking that season before. I would think top prospects are called up earlier now with this change for the better for baseball and fans.
  23. brewcrewdue80
    I would think Segura wouldn't entertain any talk playing for the Brewers. Dark time surrounding his final season here. Imagine waking up and going to work at a place that brings you back to that time. Miami is not surprisingly far away from Milw.
  24. brewcrewdue80
    Shouldn't even be a thought of doing this year. As a Catcher his career high games played in a season (minors+Mlb) is 112. Part of his success may be not enduring and extra 25-30 games a season like elite catchers do and sustaining their batting. Maybe he can? Or maybe he'll tank? He'll give the team hopefully an indication what games 125 up to 140 means at the plate. The moment his bat dips his excess value he was providing as a bat first C drops. He's not a 900-1000+ OPS bat that history is on. Should he move off defensively at Catcher the bat value for DH is average or lower. Now you are handcuffed with a 5-6year commitment for average or lower at DH. Can't put nearly any thought towards extending catchers if defense isn't their bright calling card. Adding offense to it becomes extreme valuable as they will not be moved from Catcher. We just witnessed with Narvaez what a dropoff from hitting Catcher with below average defense does when the hitting aspect doesn't do its part. He's 25 with 5more years control. He 3 good years of him and ship him off hopefully at his peak(like Narvaez) and let other teams deal with him when 30s come around.
  25. brewcrewdue80
    The splits graph has a consistent .300-310 BABIP with 2 months 400+ and 500+, the .500 plus was in 7games used. I think your seeing .300+ BaBIP displays how good a hitter he could be if he wouldn't (as noted above) swing and miss pitches that are in the zone. That .400+BABIP is reasonable when he's hitting line drives during a hot streak. Not full season but he could carry multiple games for the offense with that month. Just can't maintain a 20-23pct k rate to see the value his bat provides. I would believe there are teams to trade him to. But I don't believe teams are meeting the asking price(probably a valuable lottery ticket prospect included) Also we put out there teams that are not in competitive to use and play him. That's pretty few right now with 3 of them in our division. Then you have Hiura's defense liabilities and fitting him with that teams roster current make up. Take KC. Their big contract player is Sal Perez a C/DH. They have a top 50 prospect who's Lefty graduate at 1b. And Hunter Dozier another top 3 paid player on KC who is an infield Util at 2b/1b/DH. They may be in mid rebuild with no chance at 80 wins, but have no use for Hiura. Texas? They have a 155game starting stud 1b in Nathaniel Lowe. Why acquire Hiura to only take up games as DH. I think in the end this is a trade to Pittsburgh like we've done in the past for a scrap RP the Brewers can option this year and may have below 4ERA ability. And a prospect that is a swing SP likely RP who's a year away from Rule 5 protection and turning 25 this uear.
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