sveumrules

Here's a link to the BA Brewers Top 10 Chat which is free for non-subscribers... https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/milwaukee-brewers-2022-top-10-mlb-prospects-chat/ I'd probably have Ashby / Mitchell / Small / Turang in the top four, then a gap to Frelick / Wiemer / Hebdert / Quero five through eight, then another gap to guys like Black / Warren / Howell / Feliciano / Gray / Zamora / Valerio / Garcia / Chourio / Mendez fighting it out for the last two spots in the top ten & spilling over into the teens. 2021 was a great season in terms of hitter development, hopefully 2022 will see some pitchers make similar strides.

I guess for me projections are an interesting tool for a couple few reasons... My puny brain can't process as much information as a computer. In whatever amount of information my puny brain can process there exists some degree of bias. As imperfect as the projections are, they still offer the most accurate view of future outcomes. We know Stearns & company lean heavily on projections, so they're relevent to Brewers transactions. I've posted this article Jeff Sullivan wrote at FanGraphs before the Rays hired him a few times over the years because it does a really good job of illustrating the usefulness of projections... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-best-to-predict-the-seasons-second-half/ Now granted, its talking about midseason projections, which are a little different from preseason ones, but the overall point remains, if you want to know what's going to happen in baseball...that's impossible. But if you want to give yourself even a chance, you should give the most consideration to the projections because they're able to keep a cooler head.

TB has vsNO @CAR @NYJ vsCAR to close the season, so probably gonna need to win out to keep it. 538 has it at GB (45%) TB (39%) AZ (10%) for the first round bye after the Cardinals lost tonight, for whatever that is or isn't worth.

I checked when they said that and in 1921 only the Packers,Bears,and Cardinals existed among current teams. So one of those stats fun to bring up during the rivalry but is only relevant to those 3 teams. Packers already lead all time in Championships (13) & winning percentage (.573), once they pass the Bears for wins they'll have the triple crown.

Pirates are the first NLC team to have their ZiPS released... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-pittsburgh-pirates/ Bryan Reynolds (126 OPS+ | 3.9 WAR), Ke'Bryan Hayes (94 OPS+ | 2.5 WAR) and Oneil Cruz (117 OPS+ | 2.5 WAR) gives them a trio of interesting position players, but that's about it as the pitching staff looks like downright ugly. Fourth straight fifth place finish likely incoming.

Cubs list published over at FanGraphs today for those who like to keep tabs on other NLC farms... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-49-prospects-chicago-cubs-2/ #1 prospect Brennen Davis looks like he should be ready to make an impact in Wrigley next season, but the next five guys on the list are all teenagers in rookie ball with a combined total of 90 PAs at A ball between them. Overall the Cubs have 16 guys FG graded at 45 FV or above, with only five of those having reached AA to this point. Unless the Cubs sign a couple two tree four more Stroman caliber guys when FA resumes they are probably looking at at least a couple two tree four years of rebuilding before most of these guys have any chance of maybe being ready.

That's encouraging. As much as I like DDV, he might be our best hope at acquiring a backup big before the deadline if Brook's back isnt gonna be ready to go. Donte plus Nwora is like 6 million in salary, throwing in Hood or Semi for filler bumps it up around 8 million. Maybe that & a couple seconds is enough to get Mo Bamba from the Magic? Myles Turner from Indy would seem like a possible fit in that he can protect the rim & shoot threes, but can't really match salaries without including Lopez.

The Brewers have plenty of ammunition to deal for a difference making middle of the order bat if Stearns & company can find a match.

Curious what your methodology is for arriving at these figures? Just looking at 2016 relief pitchers of the ESPN free agent tracker there is... https://www.espn.com/mlb/freeagents/_/year/2016/type/dollars Aroldis Chapman (86 million | 6.1 WAR) Kenley Jansen (80 million | 6.2 WAR) Mark Melancon (62 million | 2.1 WAR) Brett Cecil (30.5 million | -0.4 WAR) Mike Dunn (19 million | -0.1 WAR) Brad Ziegler (16 million | -0.8 WAR) Junichi Tazawa (12 million | -1.5 WAR) Santiago Casilla (11 million | 0.9 WAR) Daniel Hudson (11 million | -0.4 WAR) Marc Rzepczynski (11 million | -0.3 WAR) Joaquin Benoit (7.5 million | 0.0 WAR) Jerry Blevins (6.5 million | 1.4 WAR) Derek Holland (6 million | -1.6 WAR) Koji Uehara (6 million | 0.1 WAR) Jesse Chavez (5.75 million | -0.2 WAR) Boone Logan (5.5 million | 0.0 WAR) Neftali Feliz (5.35 million | -0.8 WAR) Joe Blanton (4 million | -0.2 WAR) JP Howell (3 million | -0.2 WAR) Sergio Romo (3 million | 0.5 WAR) Fernando Salas (3 million | -0.7 WAR) Joe Smith (3 million | 1.1 WAR) Fernando Rodney (2.75 million | 0.3 WAR) Matt Belisle (2.05 million | 0.1 WAR) Brian Duensing (2 million | 1.4 WAR) Dustin McGowan (1.75 million | -0.3 WAR) Shawn Tolleson (1.15 million | 0.0 WAR) Casey Fien (1.1 million | -1.0 WAR) Logan Ondrusek (0.65 million | 0.0 WAR) According to the ESPN tracker a total of 408.55 million was guaranteed to relievers during 2016 free agency. After adjusting down Chapman, Jansen, Melancon and Cecil for pandemic reduced 2020 salaries it comes out to 373.8 million in salary for 11.7 total WAR. Maybe teams were hoping to only pay 7.79 million per WAR, but they ended up paying considerably more.

Or some older examples that should be somewhat familiar to Brewers fans... Paul Molitor 1979-82 | 2192 PAs | 124 OPS+ Paul Molitor 1983-86 | 1855 PAs | 107 OPS+ Paul Molitor 1987-94 | 5081 PAs | 140 OPS+ Robin Yount 1978-81 | 2229 PAs | 109 OPS+ Robin Yount 1982-83 | 1366 PAs | 158 OPS+ Robin Yount 1984-87 | 2547 PAs | 123 OPS+ Robin Yount 1988-89 | 1386 PAs | 142 OPS+

Here's some more recent examples... Joey Votto... 2007-18 | 6764 PAs | 155 OPS+ 2019-20 | 831 PAs | 97 OPS+ 2021 | 533 PAs | 136 OPS+ (Age 37) or Buster Posey... 2010-17 | 4243 PAs | 136 OPS+ 2018-19 | 893 PAs | 95 OPS+ 2021 | 454 PAs | 140 OPS+ (Age 34) or even Brandon Belt... 2012-16 | 2168 PAs | 130 OPS+ 2017-19 | 1523 PAs | 106 OPS+ 2020-21 | 560 PAs | 165 OPS+ (Age 32-33) All of them had cold stretches that were longer &/or worse than what Yelich is currently doing, and were still able to come back from it while being significantly older to boot. Looking at Christian's career arc... 2013-17 | 2812 PAs | 121 OPS+ 2018-19 | 1231 PAs | 171 OPS+ 2020-21 | 722 PAs | 103 OPS+ (Age 28-29) ...my best guess is that Yelich's production from 2022-28 will likely fall somewhere between the 121 OPS+ he posted as a Marlin & his 132 career mark. If he does that, the contract will be fine.

FanGraphs dropped their first team list today, the Los Angeles Angels, & wow is that a brutal farm... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-41-prospects-los-angeles-angels/ Looks like the kind of system a team that has been contending year in and year out picking at the end of every round might have, not one that a team who has missed the playoffs seven straight years going 494-538 over that stretch despite spending around one billion dollars on payroll should have. I guess hope Trout & Ohtani & Rendon & Syndegaard are all healthy all year & maybe break the streak of four straight fourth place finishes in the AL West?

Congrats to everybody, though Kaat & Olivo feel more like Hall of Very Good to me. Kaat played 25 years & all the gold gloves are great, but ultimately a 108 ERA+ and 50.5 career WAR | 38.1 peak WAR are well below Hall Standards. I'd say Jimmy Key (122 ERA+ | 48.9 career WAR | 36.5 peak WAR) and Ron Guidry (119 ERA+ | 47.8 career WAR | 38.0 peak WAR) were much better pitchers putting up similar value despite 2,000 fewer innings each. Olivo is kind of the opposite where he had a nice peak (38.6 WAR) though it was still short of the average HOF RF peak (42.4 WAR). But that was pretty much it for Tony with 43.0 career WAR vs 71.1 career WAR for the average HOF RF. I mean Giancarlo Stanton is already at 44.1 career WAR | 35.1 peak WAR with a 143 OPS+ (Olivo 131 OPS+) & I don't think anybody has him ticketed for Cooperstown at the moment.

Even if one thinks the odds of Yelich returning to something resembling his Marlins level of production (120 OPS+ | 3.5 WAR per 130 games) are only like five to ten percent, that is still exponentially higher than the odds of him getting traded, which are as close to zero as it gets. I know which one I'll be hoping for.

That was a bummer when Robin signed with the Wizards before last season, I always enjoyed his Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer look, hook shot & sideline enthusiasm. Would have been fun to see him & Brook win a title together, but now that Robin's a Magic at least he can hit up Disney on the regular. Bucks now up to a 15 game winning streak when all of Giannis, Khris & Jrue play. Last time the three of them lost was Game 2 of the Finals on July 8th. Cavs have the biggest front court in the league & Giannis was looking clearly hindered by his calf, but he still went for 27 points in 27 minutes on his 27th birthday & iced the game down the stretch.

Full No Trade Clause. 7/188.5 >>>>> 1/17.5 (or 2/21.5 if JBJ & BOS exercise their mutual 2023 option)

Half of Renfroe's errors were of the throwing variety, when you have a strong arm you try to make more competitive throws which results in both higher assist & error totals. Similar to how a SS with good range will normally end up with more errors because they get to more balls. Right field at Fenway is also notoriously difficult due to the weird field dimensions, I wouldn't be surprised if that inflated Hunter's error total somewhat as well.

$3.1mm projected for pedro severino. gross Believe Severino already agreed to a contract for 1.9 million, which would be about 39% less gross than 3.1 million.

Severino is listed on the Brewers 40 Man at MLB.com. Apparently he will be wearing number 28, Prince Pedro.

There just aren't enough legit DH calibre bats out there for 15 teams (much less 30) so most teams employ some sort of rotation. Last year only Cruz & Ohtani topped 500 PAs as a DH, with JD Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Yordan Alvarez & Franmil Reyes the only guys in the 400 PAs range. I would imagine the majority of games Taylor & Cain play will be in the OF since they are both plus defenders. Of guys currently on the roster I'd expect Tellez, Yelich, maybe Renfroe in the mix with Hiura as a bounceback candidadte plus whoever else they pick up once the offseason resumes.

MLB already has a salary cap, it's just called the luxury tax threshold instead. MLBTR had a pretty good today article about the evolution of the luxury tax & it looks like the 2012 CBA, which only included a raise in one of the five seasons covered, is where things started to go awry... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/how-the-mlb-luxury-tax-thresholds-have-changed-by-year.html

So far eleven free agents have signed contracts over 50 million dollars. All eleven have signed with teams that missed the playoffs in 2021. This is the desperation stage of free agency.

Not necessarily. Even if the service time/free agency relationship is altered somehow in the new CBA players who have already earned X amount of service time might be grandfathered in under the previous stipulations while the new clauses could only apply to players with less than X amount of service time.

It's hard to gauge job peformance from outside the organization, but between a number of our minor league hitters having impressive seasons & her accepting what is presumably a promotion to a front office position, I'll say she probably did a pretty good job.

There was a graphic going around awhile back showing the highest paid state employee in every state & like half the map was college football coaches with another dozen or so states where it was a college basketball coach instead.