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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Hope it isn't serious for Martinez. I really think he broke out this year. An Eric Thames bat, plus speed/stolen base potential, and the ability play all three OF positions. When Thames was 22 he posted a 313/386/487 line with an 18.2 K% at high A, Martinez is at 271/373/507 with a 27.5 K% in low A. Thames might be an optimistic comparison considering Ernesto is striking out over 9% more frequently at the same age while also playing at a lower level. Martinez has 1,396 innings at 1B in his minor league career compared to 26 innings in the OF. Ernesto can probably play all three OF positions about as well as Braun played 3B.
  2. sveumrules
    Manny Pina: 8 HR | 22 RBI Christian Yelich: 6 HR | 30 RBI Keston Hiura: 4 HR | 18 RBI
  3. sveumrules
    If you are gonna get a short start might as well be on a day where everyone in the bullpen is well rested after Corbin threw 8 IP yesterday and the only reliever that pitched (Milner) was optioned.
  4. sveumrules
    Urias @ SS (710 innings) -5 DRS / -6.4 UZR Urias @ 2B (489 innings) +2 DRS / -0.3 UZR Urias @ 3B (575 innings) +6 DRS / +2.3 UZR Small samples abound, but Urias has graded out fine at 2B and above average at 3B so far in his career.
  5. sveumrules
    Extremely doubtful, Yelich has always been a much more well rounded hitter and athlete than Davis. Yelich has a career .292 average and 21.6% K rate. Even peak Davis could only muster a .256 average and 30.8% K rate from 2012-15. Yelich has a 104 OPS+ & 1.3 WAR in 537 PAs over 2020-21, Davis has posted a 66 OPS+ and -5.7 WAR since 2017.
  6. sveumrules
    Topa's been with the organization since 2019. He has thrown 49 IP in the minors with 50 K / 13 BB and a ground ball rate around 50%. After giving up 2 runs in his MLB debut he followed that up with 5 scoreless outings in the regular season (10 K / 0 BB), then capped it off with two scoreless against the Dodgers in the postseason. Maybe we really have no idea what he is, but whatever little idea we do have, the Brewers front office / coaching staff have a much better idea & they've already demonstrated a decent degree of belief in Topa's brief time with the organization. That said, Hader, Williams, Boxberger, Suter, Cousins, Strickland, Sanchez & Norris are all ahead of Topa for sure, I'd imagine Ashby is too. The idea that a guy with stuff like this is only like our 10th best relief option, is a testament to the depth of the organization...
  7. sveumrules
    Turang is probably the closest comp for Madrigal, in that they're both punchless middle infielders. Madrigal's edge is that he is already singling MLB to death where Turang's offense is much less certain at this point, Brice's edge is that he is apparently a legit SS who is younger & with more team control. Heuer looks like a middle leverage reliever with some team control left. Since most would probably value Madrigal over Turang we might have to give up a better reliever. Maybe one of Sanchez or Cousins? Possibly Abner Uribe if the Cubs want to go more for future value?
  8. sveumrules
    Fueling that massive FIP gap is Burnes transformation on the HR/9 front. Everyone remembers 2019 when Corbin gave up 3.12 HR/9. How bad was that? Since the year 2000 there are 7,893 individual pitcher seasons with at least 40 IP. Corbin's 3.12 was the 7th highest. From 2020-21, there are 135 pitchers with at least 100 IP, with Spencer Turnbull (0.34 HR/9) a fraction ahead of Burnes (0.35 HR/9) then a decent gap until Wheeler (0.52 HR/9) in third before a grouping of guys (Valdez, Marquez, deGrom & Fried) around 0.70-0.73 HR/9. Corbin's HR/9 is literally half of the guys in 4th place.
  9. sveumrules
    I think you have a good point, he's probably the most talented pitcher in the NL...but I don't think he's gotten the clear best results in MLB. Workload certainly should matter in the CY young race. Agree with everything you say here. He's the most dominant pitcher in baseball in my opinion, but has virtually no shot to win the Cy Young. By ERA/ERA- the six contenders are pretty close... Buehler 2.13 ERA (54 ERA-) | Burnes 2.23 ERA (54 ERA-) | Woodruff 2.23 ERA (54 ERA-) | Peralta 2.26 ERA (54 ERA-) | Gausman 2.29 ERA (57 ERA-) | Wheeler 2.52 ERA (59 ERA-) By FIP/FIP- Burnes blows everybody else out of the water... Burnes 1.52 FIP (35 FIP-) | Wheeler 2.42 FIP (55 FIP-) | Woodruff 2.62 FIP (64 FIP-) | Gausman 2.94 FIP (72 FIP-) | Peralta 2.98 FIP (70 FIP-) | Buehler 3.12 FIP (74 FIP-) Have a feeling if the race is still this close at the end of the year most voters will order the Brewers as Woodruff / Burnes / Peralta on their ballots just based on IP. Even as someone who has watched just about every game, it is tough to put them in order. Obviously Woody's the workhorse, but that Burnes FIP is insane deGrom territory stuff, then Freddy is literally the hardest to get a hit off by a similarly large margin with an MLB best .140 average against before getting to Woodruff/Gausman in 2nd at .181. Good problems I guess.
  10. sveumrules
    Topa career BB9 minors: 2.4 Black career BB9 minors: 5.9 Topa has much better control than Black.
  11. sveumrules
    According to StatCast Topa's slider is 83.3 MPH with 16" horizontal / 37" vertical movement vs league average of 6" horizontal / 37" vertical movement. Ten extra inches of horizontal movement compared to league average seems pretty significant.
  12. sveumrules
    Agreed. Really exciting checking in on those AZL box scores & seeing the highly regarded guys putting up some numbers to go along with the scouting reports, even if it is small sample territory still. Also should be fun keeping track of guys on the pitching side. Stearns & company haven't invested as much in terms of bonuses for international arms, but given the system's uptick in pitcher development over the last five plus years it will be interesting to see who emerges as guys start to get more innings under their belts.
  13. sveumrules
    Stearns & company weren't here for Braun's extension or any Fielder/Sabathia negotiatios. CC put up 1329 IP with a 114 ERA+ on his original 7/161 contract with the Yankees, good for between 21-24 WAR depending on which variety one prefers. FanGraphs had him as the 11th best starter by FIP based WAR & 19th by runs allowed WAR over those seven years. Wasn't really a bullet to be dodged there. Even Braun put up 8 WAR over his second extension, so it wasn't a complete wash & didn't prevent the Brewers from somehow managing to win the 11th most games in MLB from 2016-20 during what was supposed to be a rebuild for at least the first two years.
  14. sveumrules
    Maybe stunk relative to MVP level performance, but he has 532 PAs with a 107 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR between 2020-21, which is essentially league average production. Yes, Yelich will be paid for more than league average production starting next year, though even with a 26 million dollar salary the break even point is still only around 3 WAR. I don't think 532 PAs spread out over two years after shattering a knee cap, going through a pandemic altered season & other assorted ailments this year is enough to say the Yelich we are seeing now is Yelich we will get over the next seven years. Joey Votto is eight years older than Yelich, posted a 104 wRC+ over 831 PAs from 2019-20 and has bounced back to a 142 wRC+ over 351 PAs this year.
  15. sveumrules
    Saw that Madison Bumgarner got a standing O from the crowd before his first game back in San Francisco with fans in the stands since he signed with Arizona. Thought the dynamic was kind of funny, MadBum putting up middling results for the worst team in baseball while his old teammates are thriving on the team with the best record in MLB. Thought it was extra funny considering this quote from MadBum after signing with the DBacks, "First and foremost, winning is what the whole decision was based on," Bumgarner said. "Being with a team, that in my mind, plays my brand of baseball. Plays the way I like to play."
  16. sveumrules
    Thanks for posting, Mass. Will be interesting to see how it compares to the BF.net Midseason Top 25. One thing I noticed reading through the blurbs is it appears the author calculated K% based off of ABs instead of PAs, noting both Dillard & McGee strikeout around 40% of the time, when their actual rates are closer to 33%.
  17. sveumrules
    Looking through the game logs it appears Boxberger has thrown five times over a one week stretch twice. Hader & Williams have not thrown five games in a week this year.
  18. sveumrules
    A left handed hitting Arcia is Turang's floor, Mickey Tettleton is a ceiling Hummel has a miniscule chance of ever reaching.
  19. sveumrules
    Howell isn't really a middle infielder though (42 games at CF, 9 at 3B, 9 at SS, 7 in RF) and is also a year older / a level behind Turang with a 29% K rate. Wes Wilson also isn't really a middle infielder (22 games at 1B, 13 at SS, 10 at 2B, 12 in the OF) and is five years older than Turang. Valerio pretty much projects as a 2B only guy (36 games at 2B, 17 at 3B, 17 at SS) and is three levels behind Turang. At least he is younger. Cantrelle also projects as a 2B only guy (63 games at 2B, 7 at SS) and is a year older / two levels behind Turang with a 25% K rate. None of those guys are anywhere near the defensive SS that Turang is, and are all either older, farther down the minor league ladder or both.
  20. sveumrules
    CC got two rings as a player & it appears he is a better manager than player, so that means he'll get at least three rings as a manager right?
  21. sveumrules
    Jeremy Jeffress currently has an 11.17 ERA in 10 G / 9.2 IP with 14 K / 8 BB / 3 HR pitching for the Lexington Legends of the independent Atlantic League. Is that bad? Could be worse. At least he isn't pitching in the California Penal League.
  22. sveumrules
    Thanks for posting a list & welcome to the board.
  23. sveumrules
    I can totally see them playing a clandestine game of one on one in like Watertown or something at midnight on some random Tuesday when there's a full moon. Maybe even a slight drizzle to make it that much more cinematic. Settle the score once & for all.
  24. sveumrules
    Jeremy Jeffress currently has an 11.17 ERA in 10 G / 9.2 IP with 14 K / 8 BB / 3 HR pitching for the Lexington Legends of the independent Atlantic League.
  25. sveumrules
    Good digging on Ashby. That heavy mix of Ks & grounders plus the Brewers IF defense should hopefully be a lot of fun to watch. Ashby also got a mention in the Daily Prospect Notes at FanGraphs... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/daily-prospect-notes-8-6-2021/ Hunter Greene of the Reds (who maybe gets called up down the stretch?) also has a blurb.
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