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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Cousins was pitching in Indy ball in 2019 & hadn't appeared above A ball prior to this year. He threw 8.2 IP in AA, then 9 IP in AAA before getting the call. He's already been about as fast tracked as it gets. Godley has thrown all of 3.1 IP this year, Cousins is already over halfway there & from the look of things last night should easily surpass that total over the remainder of the season.
  2. sveumrules
    Heat season 3P%: .358 Heat playoff 3P%: .336 Nets season 3P%: .392 Nets playoff 3P%: .353 Hawks season 3P%: .373 Hawks playoff 3P%: .346 Bucks three point defense has been fine in the first two rounds, while the Hawks have shot below their season average from three through the first two rounds. Hawks might go off for a game or two, but going off for four would be the flipping the script as its played out so far for sure.
  3. sveumrules
    I want to be happy, but it mostly infuriates me. Why have we trotted out Godley on multiple call ups with guys like Cousins available? His stuff is clearly better. I get hes not doing this every night, but he passes the eye test 1,000 times over from what Godley brings. It’s frustrating we trot out long track records of suck instead of giving other guys a shot. Cousins never pitched above A ball prior to this year. He threw 8.2 IP in AA, then 9 IP in AAA before getting called up. I'd say that's a pretty fast track to getting a shot.
  4. sveumrules
    Vogelbach has been at 243/354/441 (119 wRC+) over 130 PAs since Hiura was sent down the first time, so they don't really need to rush him back. If Keston is still raking in a couple two tree weeks with a reasonable K rate & hopefully simplified mechanics, then it starts to get a lil more interesting. It's good to have options.
  5. sveumrules
    Nine walks too, so 11 Ks in 45 PAs is a 24.4 K%. First time around in AAA was 13 Ks in 40 PAs for a 32.5 K%. Small samples abound, but it appears to maybe be progress.
  6. sveumrules
    Two of the five appearances where Boxberger did give up a run came in Calvin Ball extra innings too. Sure, his FIP (3.73) was higher than his ERA (3.14) entering the game, but over 357 career innings his ERA (3.52) has outperformed his FIP (4.09) by a similar margin, so he might not be due for as much regression as the underlying metrics indicate.
  7. sveumrules
    Will the Brewers runs per game after 162 be closer to the 3.66 they posted over the first 44 games or the 4.52 mark they've been rocking in the 27 games since Willy got here? Seems like a pretty easy call to me.
  8. sveumrules
    League average batting average was .256 for position players in 1910, so the White Sox position players ended up with an 85 AVG+. League average batting average for position players is down to .242 so far this year, so the Brewers position players currently have an AVG+ of 89. Over the last twenty full seasons (2000-2019) only three out of 600 teams seasons have come in with an AVG+ of 90. None have been lower. In the sixty game 2020 schedule there were four teams between an 86-89 AVG+, this year there are two so far at an 89. There are multiple factors at work here. One is it's literally never been harder to get a hit, another is we're comparing results over a 68 game sample with results from 154/162 game samples & the third would be the team batting average is currently dragged down by players like Hiura/Shaw/McKinney (67 for 378, .177 combined) who figure to get considerably fewer opportunities moving forward. Assuming health for our primary starters, there are numerous indicators the team batting average should improve over the course of the next 94 games. For whatever it is or isn't worth, ZiPS projects the seven players likely to get the majority of the remaining plate appearances for averages of .271 (Yelich), .270 (Wong), .261 (Avi & Omar), .243 (Urias), .242 (Adames) & .234 (Vogelbach).
  9. sveumrules
    Run prevention on full display that inning. Garcia steals a double, Yelich cuts the ball off in LF to keep the runner at third, Adames diving stab keeps runner at second, doesn't score on the next single with a perfect throw home from JBJ, then Wong with the gem for out number three. Should probably be at least 4-1 by now.
  10. sveumrules
    Players stopped playing every day long before COVID. In 2019 there were five guys that played all 162, in 2018 there were seven, in 2017 there were five, in 2016 there were three, in 2015 there was only one, in 2014 there were four, etc. Even picking a random season in the middle of the steroid era, 1999, there were only five guys that played all 162.
  11. sveumrules
    The Brewers are still in this process, it takes time. There are a grand total of five position players from the 2016 first round with positive WAR at this point. Kyle Lewis (2.5 WAR, #11), Alex Kiriloff (0.4 WAR, #15), Gavin Lux (3.0 WAR, #20), Will Smith (4.8 WAR, #32) and Dylan Carlson (1.3 WAR, #33). Keston Hiura is one of only three position players with positive WAR from the 2017 first round, the two players with higher WAR, Adam Haseley & Pavin Smith, were off the board when the Brewers selected. There is one position player drafted after Brice Turang in the 2018 first round to make MLB so far, Nico Hoerner (2.2 WAR, #24). Given standard development timelines & where the Brewers have drafted the idea that Stearns & company should have multiple homegrown position players contributing already seems a little unrealistic. Especially with Montgomery whiffing the Ray/Erceg picks, thanks for Burnes (& Feliciano, & who knows maybe even Henry or Hummel someday too) though.
  12. sveumrules
    Just saw Arkansas reliever Kevin Kopps get the Dick Howser Trophy on MLB Network & he could be an interesting guy to keep an eye on in the early/middle rounds. He's already 24, but posted a 12-1 record & 11 saves with a 0.90 ERA over 89 innings in 33 appearances this year with 131 Ks vs only 18 BBs. Apparently doesn't have the best velocity, but leans heavily on a slider/cutter to generate lots of whiffs.
  13. sveumrules
    Something just doesn't add up here. All these above average players don't lead to the worst BA in baseball, second worst slugging, and the third worst OPS in baseball. Sure we have had injuries but not enough to explain being one of the worst offenses in the league. Those eight players have taken a combined 1,323 plate appearances, or about 55.2% of the 2,398 position player plate appearances so far. As I noted earlier in the thread the 23.4% of the plate appearances taken by JBJ, Hiura & Shaw combine to drag the overall line below average. Moving forward ZiPS projects the eight players in that lineup for... Wong (110 wRC+), Urias (100 wRC+), Yelich (141 wRC+), Avisail (107 wRC+), Omar (115 wRC+), Adames (99 wRC+), Vogelbach (120 wRC+) and Taylor (95 wRC+). Cain is at 101 wRC+. Assuming health for the players already here plus whatever acquisitions Stearns & company make as the summer progresses it's a pretty easy call for me to take the over on a 89 wRC+ the rest of the way out now that Hiura & Shaw aren't taking any PAs at all & JBJ will be taking a smaller percentage as Tyrone & Lorenzo come off the IL.
  14. sveumrules
    So if you just ignore all the bad hitters the Brewers offense is great! Good to know. Hiura is in AAA, Shaw is hurt, JBJ will likely see his playing team decrease as other options come off the IL. Combined they have accounted for 563 of 2,398 position player PAs so far, or 23.4%. Since they will collectively receive a much smaller portion of future plate appearances they will likewise exert much less of a negative impact moving forward. Thus, I don't believe the Brewers current 89 wRC+ to be the most accurate predictor of their future results over the season.
  15. sveumrules
    One or two of those types at the back end of a 26-man roster is typically fine. Having four, two of which are starting pretty much every game, however, is not ideal. So far they have started 37 games combined of the Brewers 68 total games. It's much closer to one of them starting every other game on average than two of them starting pretty much every game. So far there are 416 players with at least 50 PAs. Here is a breakdown ranking teams by the number of league average or better hitters they have with at least 50 PAs this year... TEAM: players with at least 100 wRC+ / players with 50+ PAs LAD: 12 / 16 HOU: 10 / 12 MIN: 9 / 16 NYM: 8 / 12 CHC: 8 / 13 CIN: 8 / 13 OAK: 8 / 13 ATL: 8 / 14 CHW: 8 / 14 ARI: 8 / 15 SFG: 8 / 17 LAA: 7 / 14 PHI: 7 / 14 TBR: 7 / 15 MIL: 7 / 16 BOS: 6 / 13 SDP: 6 / 13 STL: 6 / 13 TOR: 6 / 13 MIA: 6 / 15 WAS: 5 / 13 CLE: 5 / 14 DET: 5 / 14 PIT: 5 / 14 TEX: 5 / 14 SEA: 5 / 15 COL: 4 / 12 KCR: 4 / 13 BAL: 4 / 14 NYY: 3 / 14
  16. sveumrules
    The other thing they have in common is they are AAA depth who are essentially only called upon when needed due to injury or one of whom would be acting as the 12th man when everyone is healthy. Robertson has the most PAs of the group at 70 & that is still only 15th on the team. I would love it if the organization had an extra couple two tree MLB caliber hitters as AAA depth in addition to a full complement of twelve or thirteen on the actual MLB roster, but that just seems like an unrealistic expectation.
  17. sveumrules
    I put Taylor in there because he should be off the IL before Lorenzo & I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some more starts if he continues to be cromulent while JBJ keeps flailing away. Even so, once Cain is able his 91 wRC+ is hardly a lineup killer if that is your worst hitter & it is paired with plus base running & gold glove CF defense. Yes, the team's overall line (89 wRC+) has been ugly, but that is largely on account of JBJ (239 PAs, 37 wRC+), Hiura (122 PAs, 26 wRC+) & to a lesser extent Shaw (202 PAs, 73 wRC+). Brewers position players have posted -31.4 batting runs this year. Remove the three above, who are collectively at -34.2, & suddenly the offense is back in the black even with guys like McKinney (-4.2), Robertson (-3.7), Reyes (-3.6), Peterson (-2.2) & Lopes (-1.0) still dragging down the total. Ultimately, when healthy, Omar, Manny, Vogelbach, Kolten, Adames, Urias, Yelich, Cain, Garcia & Taylor (+17.2 batting runs total) are 10 position players from which a perfectly fine lineup can be assembled. Moving forward they, plus whatever additions Stearns & company make, figure to get the overwhelming majority of the plate appearances so I don't believe the Brewers current 89 wRC+ is the best indicator for expected future results.
  18. sveumrules
    I think the "production away from Coors" thing is a little overblown. DJ Lemahieu certainly did well after leaving Colorado. Arenado has been good. Matt Holliday had some nice years after leaving Colorado. Larry Walker was good for the Cardinals after the Rockies dealt him. Those players all had much longer/better track records than McMahon. Before his 264 PAs with a 115 OPS+ this year he had posted an 83 OPS+ over 958 PAs. For whatever it is or isn't worth, publicly available projections have McMahon between 96-114 wRC+ compared to 116-123 for Vogelbach. It's also looking like DJL may have been one of the bigger beneficiaries of the juicier balls the last couple years as he's posting a 93 OPS+ so far this year over 284 PAs, which is identical to the mark he posted in his 3737 career PAs with Colorado.
  19. sveumrules
    Rockies are 23-14 at Coors this year vs 5-27 on the road.
  20. sveumrules
    George Springer signed for 7/150 and has played four games. Marcell Ozuna signed for 4/65 & is facing some serious legal issues. Odorizzi got 3/23.5 & is currently sporting a 5.68 ERA over 25 innings.
  21. sveumrules
    Like Hiura or Mitchell? A good mix of up the middle athletes & plain old hitters are off to pretty encouraging starts so far down on the farm... (A) Joe Gray 299/395/679 (186 wRC+) (A) Ernesto Martinez 290/411/527 (163 wRC+) (A) Felix Valerio 331/422/512 (163 wRC+) (A+) Garrett Mitchell 341/418/488 (182 wRC+) (A+) Korry Howell 319/418/575 (168 wRC+) (A+) Je'Von Ward 330/366/447 (122 wRC+) (AA) Payton Henry 303/383/394 (119 wRC+) (AA) Brice Turang 286/356/398 (113 wRC+)
  22. sveumrules
    Wong (115 wRC+) Urias (100 wRC+) Yelich (126 wRC+) Avisail (106 wRC+) Omar (147 wRC+) Adames (110 wRC+) Vogelbach (106 wRC+) Taylor (111 wRC+) When everyone is healthy the lineup is fine.
  23. sveumrules
    I never really thought about it too much, but boy there have been a number of batters over the last fiver years or so who came to the Brewers got semi-regular playing time in Milwaukee with then never played extensively, if at all in the major leagues afterward: Justin Smoak Jedd Gyroko Corey Spangenberg Tyler Saladino Hernan Perez Nick Franklin Keon Broxton Kirk Nieuwenhuis Ramon Flores Alex Presley Check the rosters of WAS, MIN, STL, ATL, ARI, COL, SEA, NYM, LAA, PHI, SFG, SDP, TOR, CHW, CIN, TEX, PIT, MIA, KCR, DET & BAL (the 21 teams who have won fewer games than us over the last five years) & I'd imagine it's not really all that remarkable.
  24. sveumrules
    Casey McGehee, Yuni B & Orlando all started on 96 win teams that went to the NLCS. Not every lineup can be stacked one through eight. For all the ineptitude over the last 15 seasons, the Brewers have somehow stumbled into the 10th most wins in baseball since Braun's rookie season in 2007. Pretty impressive on its own merits, even moreso when payroll is taken into consideration. The fifteen years before that, from their last winning season in 1992 through 2006, the Brewers won the 23rd most games in baseball & four of the teams below themwere expansion franchises. I'd say that is far more representative of the Brewers WAY under Attanassio/Melvin/Stearns than JBJ's wRC+ is.
  25. sveumrules
    And by this they mean the Brewers drafted Ethan Small, right? I mean unless I am forgetting someone, he is the only four-year college pitcher the Brewers have drafted in the first five rounds since the Webb-Burnes-Brown trifecta. Not first round picks, but guys like Alec Bettinger, Nick Bennett, Taylor Floyd & Arman Sabouri were recent picks that fit the general profile of command over raw stuff college pitcher with results in a major conference.
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