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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Since Stearns and company arrived in 2016, Brewers 1B are 12th in both wRC+ (115) and WAR (9.2). They've gotten pretty good value out of a position they apparently don't value at all.
  2. sveumrules
    FanGraphs mock I linked above has Bednar going 20th to the Yankees, so probably not a huge reach at #15. Mentions in his blurb that "while scouts see his slider as plus, the computerized pitch graders based on spin and shape like it even more than that" which sounds like the kind of thing the Brewers front office might be keen on.
  3. sveumrules
    Another FanGraphs mock draft published today... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0-3/ 15. Milwaukee Brewers Pick: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State Like San Francisco, Milwaukee is believed to be lining up the second tier of college arms. This could be the floor for Hoglund. If their board gets blown up by a run on college pitching, then they might cut a deep deal with a college bat like ECU’s Connor Norby or Trey Sweeney of Eastern Illinois. Sweeney’s name is getting peppered throughout the rest of the first round starting here.
  4. sveumrules
    Yelich 2021 wRC+: 123 Yelich MIA wRC+: 122 He's had 99 PAs at AmFam so far this year. Small samples produce seemingly weird results.
  5. sveumrules
    What would be the cost to get Scherzer? Unless the Nats ate some money, the remainder of his contract would cost around $15-16M. The more $$ they eat, the more they would want in return. Gray isn't as good, but would be much cheaper to acquire and pay. He would be #4. I wonder if there is a lefty worth having they could get? Boras essentially said Max would only waive his NTC if the acquiring team signs him to an extension, so can probably rule the Brewers out on Scherzer.
  6. sveumrules
    Both are listed as 45 FV, so they are essentially ranked the same. The order within each FV tier just represents personal preference. Small has a much higher floor for sure, but most see his ceiling as a mid rotation starter. Quero has a lot more uncertainy as a teenager yet to play stateside, but also has the upside of a starting catcher, which is more valuable than a mid rotation SP considering the paucity of backstops leaguewide. Francisco Alvarez was a teenage catcher in rookie ball two years ago, now he's a consensus Top 50 prospect in MLB.
  7. sveumrules
    Combination of Trout hurt + Rendon slumping + still no pitching + Astros & A's ahead of them both in terms of current record & front office aptitude. Since Stearns & company got here the Brewers have won 423 games (8th most) while spending about 480 million on payroll & heading for their 4th consecutive postseason. In that same time the Angels have won 372 games (21st) while spending about 900 million on payroll & never making the postseason.
  8. sveumrules
    Thought it might be interesting to find the closest recent-ish comps to Ohtani's performance from each side... 2021 Ohtani | 123 BB%+ | 120 K%+ | 115 AVG+ | 115 OBP+ | 171 SLG+ 1989 Mitchell | 155 BB%+ | 125 K%+ | 115 AVG+ | 121 OBP+ | 168 SLG+ 1995 Belle | 120 BB%+ | 83 K%+ | 117 AVG+ | 116 OBP+ | 162 SLG+ 2021 Ohtani | 137 K%+ | 156 BB%+ | 84 ERA- | 88 FIP- 2005 Kazmir | 134 K%+ | 157 BB%+ | 88 ERA- | 87 FIP-
  9. sveumrules
    Traded for Jordan Lyles at the deadline in 2019, who went 7-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch. Cashed in with Texas for 2/16 & has put up a 5.89 ERA over 142 IP since. Put up a 5.29 ERA in 850 IP before his Brewers stint.
  10. sveumrules
    Hader has thrown 184 pitches since June 3rd. His yearly salary is 6.675 million, so one month comes out to 1.1125 million. Divide that by 184 pitches & it comes out to around $6,046.20 per pitch over the last month. (warming up in the bullpen is free)
  11. sveumrules
    Defense & Baserunning during the Stearns/Counsell era... 2016: +24 DRS | +5.2 BSR 2017: +23 DRS | +2.4 BSR 2018: +121 DRS | +8.2 BSR 2019: +26 DRS | +5.9 BSR 2020: -9 DRS | -17.6 BSR (Hey, Wha Happened?!?!?) 2021: +23 DRS | +4.0 BSR Pandemic craziness aside, so far so good.
  12. sveumrules
    Rogers will be interesting to keep an eye on for sure, especially as a value comparison for Hader. Since 2017 among relievers... Rogers | 245 IP (18th) | 64 ERA- (14th) | 66 FIP- (13th) | 6.8 rWAR (6th) | 6.0 fWAR (8th) | WPA +7.09 (8th) | 28.1 K% (53rd) Hader | 256 IP (12th) | 53 ERA- (2nd) | 60 FIP- (5th) | 10.0 rWAR (1st) | 8.1 fWAR (1st) | WPA +12.36 (1st) | 44.3 K% (1st) If Taylor is dealt, you could probably add a top 25-50ish prospect to the package to get an idea for a Hader deal considering Josh is better, younger & has an additional year of team control remaining.
  13. sveumrules
    2019 was pretty college heavy, with six of the first seven picks from four year schools & Kelly (from JC) in the 2nd round. First HS pick is Darrien Miller round nine, then six more college/JC before the 2nd HS kid (Kelvin Bender) in round seventeen. 2018 was pretty much the opposite. Four of the top five picks are HS with Ashby in the 4th from JC then Rasmussen/Fry from college in 6/7 with a pretty good mix after that. 2017 was a little more spread out with college, two HS, college, two HS through the first six picks then four college/JC guys to close out the top ten before a run of nine HS kids starting round eleven. 2016 tilted a little towards college with eleven of the top fifteen picks coming out of college/JC. HS picks were Feliciano (2nd), Henry (6th), Francisco Thomas (8th) & McLanahan (11th).
  14. sveumrules
    Yeah, seems like if Topa is a 40 FV hurt that two guys with the same general profile, but currently putting up MLB zeroes (in tiny samples, granted) should probably at least be slotted higher in the 40 FV tier or maybe even towards the bottom of the 40+ FV tier.
  15. sveumrules
    Yup. Love Lo Cain & don't doubt he could have pulled off the first half of the play just as casual, but no way he makes that throw.
  16. sveumrules
    Is this true? Mitchell, Small, Ray, Jungmann Turang, Grisham, Medeiros, Covey Jungmann, Grisham, Medeiros & Covey all pre-date the current front office.
  17. sveumrules
    And does Urias have a "little 4-5, 2HR, 4RBI soreness"? Urias hit two homers so he might have to sit for two days.
  18. sveumrules
    Only time will tell if Hoglund is a comparable MLB talent to Buehler, but from a performance standpoint in college he more than held his own... Buehler | 253 IP | 260 K (9.2 K9) | 86 BB (3.1 BB9) | 3.02 K/BB Hoglund | 154 IP | 186 K (10.9 K9) | 35 BB (2.0 BB9) | 5.31 K/BB If Gunnar is on the board & the Brewers think he is the best player available I've got no problem if he is the pick.
  19. sveumrules
    The Brewers (while not the only ones) have gotten pretty deep into the deferment game. 1.8 million to Braun until 2031 1 million to Cain from 2023 to 2027 2.3 million to Yelich from 2031 to 2042 5 million to Wong between 2023 and 2024 18 million to JBJ (assuming he exercises his player option) between 2023 and 2025 Pretty sure the Nationals kick the biggest can the farthest down the road... Scherzer: 15 million each July 1 from 2022-28 (105 million) Strasburg: 26.66 million each July 1 from 2027-29 + 4 million interest (90 million) Corbin: 10 million total from November 2024 to January 2026 Hand: 6.5 million total from January 2022-24
  20. sveumrules
    Here's a NLC Division Odds update at the halfway point, now including Baseball Reference... PECOTA: 67.9% MIL | 25.5% CHI | 6.0% CIN | 0.6% STL FanGraphs: 85.1% MIL | 7.7% CHI | 4.9% CIN | 2.3% STL FiveThirtyEight: 72% MIL | 18% CHI | 7% CIN | 3% STL BRef: 78.4% MIL | 13.3% CHI | 7.5% CIN | 0.8% STL
  21. sveumrules
    FanGraphs list dropped today... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-42-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/ Just digging in now, but here is the System Overview... The Brewers didn’t have a sexy 2020 draft, instead taking a bunch of good value college players, and a couple of them really impressed scouts this spring, namely Wiemer and Warren. The velo gains of many older arms in the org are an indication to stay on the generic, four-pitch guys who sit about 90 just in case they eventually add a little something extra and become relevant. It’s perhaps more important to identify when the older guys are breaking out because there’s a narrow window of time between when those guys pop and when they’re in the big leagues. There’s a larger window to properly identify younger breakout guys. My international sources are a little less apt to scout in Venezuela, and that might be contributing to my underrating some of the players in this system. I didn’t have as much background with Quero, Chourio, or Hedbert when they were amateurs, and it took a lot of in-person looks to properly slot them. It’s notable that this org is so active there. Fastball carry and angle still rule the day in this org, with the Houston front office DNA obviously driving their player acquisition patterns. The Brewers also seem more likely to target players with either superlative contact rates or big top-end exit velocities more than they would like to take someone who has a generic blend of both.
  22. sveumrules
    Figured I'd do the same breakdown for May as I did for April... Wins (3-0): 8th 6-2 | 23rd 9-4 | 29th 6-2 Losses (0-5): 2nd 4-16 | 7th 1-6 | 15th 1-5 | 21st 4-9 | 25th 1-7 Either/Or (10-10): 1st 6-5 (11) | 3rd 3-4 | 4th 5-6 | 5th 4-5 | 6th 0-2 | 9th 2-1 (10) | 11th 1-6 (10) | 12th 4-1 | 13th 0-2 | 14th 3-6 | 16th 10-9 | 18th 0-2 | 19th 4-6 | 22nd 4-3 | 24th 5-3 | 26th 1-2 (10) | 27th 6-5 (10) | 29th 4-1 | 30th 3-0 | 31st 3-2 (10 June breaks down like this... Wins (8-0): 4th 5-1 | 8th 5-1 | 10th 7-2 | 22nd 5-0 | 26th 10-4 | 27th 5-0 | 28th 14-4 | 30th 15-7 Losses (0-4): 9th 3-7 | 14th 2-10 | 17th 3-7 | 21st 1-5 Either/Or (11-4): 1st 7-10 | 3rd 7-4 | 5th 7-5 | 6th 2-0 | 11th 7-4 | 12th 7-4 | 13th 5-2 | 15th 1-2 (10) | 16th 1-2 | 18th 5-6 (10) | 19th 6-5 | 20th 7-6 | 23rd 3-2 | 25th 5-4 (11) | 29th 2-1 That brings the season total to 18 wins, 14 losses and 30-19 in either/or games. Run differentials are +99 in wins, -88 in losses & +19 in either/or.
  23. sveumrules
    44 games pre-Adames: 3.66 runs per game (21-23 record) 37 games post-Adames: 5.11 runs per game (27-10 record)
  24. sveumrules
    Kind of felt like we put the first nail in the Cubs coffin when we beat them in Game 163 back in 2018. If they decide to sell at the deadline, this pending sweep might end up being the final nail.
  25. sveumrules
    Welcome to the board!! One of my favorite things about the Brewers under Counsell is that they definitely seem to give up way later than the majority of the internet commentariat do.
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