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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Vogelbach (250/411/523) & Urias (274/348/500) have both been pretty hot since Adames got here. Guessing Stearns & company add someone at some point, but it might be a lil bit yet.
  2. sveumrules
    There were posters saying it looked like a bad decision to deal Knebel after 3 1/3 innings. If the castoffs were scattered around the league in Baltimore and Miami and Detroit, nobody would care. However, it's a little bit crazy that 3 guys who we had ended up on one of the deepest, most complete teams in MLB history who really didn't even need bullpen help and yet these guys are getting a shot AND having success there. If you don't find that at least interesting and at most concerning then shrug your shoulders ignore the posts and move on, but I don't think it's odd at all to update how these players are doing within the appropriate thread. I think the fact that an organization as astute as the Dodgers apparently thinks the Brewers have come far enough at pitching development under Stearns & company that players we can no longer afford the financial risk on due to injury concerns (Nelson/Knebel) or fall victim to roster crunch due to depth of options (Bickford) to be an extremely encouraging change from the previous thirty plus years of Brewers pitching development.
  3. sveumrules
    That is a lofty comparison. Urias has been a merry go round because he has been terrible for 90% of his career so far. Zobrist was a versatile guy who could play multiple positions well and thats why he bounced around the field a bunch. He also could hit, something Urias doesn't have a huge track record of doing. Zobrist didn't get his first MLB plate appearance until his age 25 season. Urias is currently at 635 career PAs with 60% of his age 24 season still remaining. Zobrist wasn't Zobrist either yet at Luis's age, his breakout didn't come until his age 28 season. Sure, odds are that Luis never tops the 45 WAR that Zobrist posted throughout his career, but when Ben was a 24 year old in A/A+ ball his odds of ever posting 45 WAR were miniscule & it came to pass, so who really knows?
  4. sveumrules
    There were posters saying it looked like a bad decision to deal Knebel after 3 1/3 innings.
  5. sveumrules
    Think Hoglund would have been in play for sure & maybe even off the board already at #15 had he not gotten injured. At this point he would probably be considered a reach at #15 with the injury, but will also probably off the board before the Brewers 2nd pick at #33.
  6. sveumrules
    Partial mock up over at FanGraphs with LHP Jordan Wicks of Kansas State going to the Brewers... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-mlb-mock-draft-one-month-to-go/ Longenhagen: There’s general mid-round buzz on Wicks. Goldstein: The Brewers have a history of taking college arms and valuing command and performance as much as raw stuff, so Wicks fits the bill here. They've also got RHP Sam Bachman from Miami (OH) going one pick later to the Marlins, who is super intriguing with an almost MLB ready two pitch mix, but also comes with higher risk on account of having more of a reliever profile.
  7. sveumrules
    Seager's 15 million team option for 2022 converts to a player option if he is traded. I could see scenarios where that either hinders (don't want to take on the future payroll) or helps facilitate (don't have to send out any top prospects) a deal.
  8. sveumrules
    I think it makes some degree of intuitive sense that having a year geared more towards development in a more static location during the pandemic, instead of playing games & trying to get results while riding all over in buses & whatnot like normal, could be more beneficial to guys whose baseball skills might have been lagging behind their tools. Or it could be totally random. As far as the relative ranking, I think we'll need more time to tell. After whatever happens the rest of the summer between minor league performance, the draft & deadline deals we should have a better idea. Another thing that should help is we don't really project to have any notable graduates dropping off the top of the list outside of Ashby.
  9. sveumrules
    Pretty awesome that Gray, Howell & Ward are off to nice starts over the first six weeks. Three of the loudest toolsets in the system clocking results to match.
  10. sveumrules
    Narvaez is currently 11th among all NL players in WAR, but I'm not surprised Bowden doesn't know that or at least consider it worthy of a mention if he does. Would have to imagine at least one of these four NL backstops will be watching from home & it will prolly be Omar on account of name recognition/other factors, but he's certainly been deserving to this point... Buster | 172 PAs | 175 wRC+ | 2.4 WAR Omar | 157 PAs | 151 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR Smith | 194 PAs | 132 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR Realmuto | 171 PAs | 146 wRC+ | 2.0 WAR
  11. sveumrules
    "WE'RE GOING STREAKING!!!"
  12. sveumrules
    It's actually seven straight. July 8th-11th @ home, then July 16th-18th on the road, with the All Star Break in the middle.
  13. sveumrules
    11 walks > 3 home runs
  14. sveumrules
    Oh well, seven out of eight isn't bad.
  15. sveumrules
    By run differential the Cubs are +33, right in line with their 35-27 record. They've scored 4.56 runs per game while only allowing 4.03 runs per game. BaseRuns thinks they've actually been among the luckiest teams in MLB so far, gaining 5 extra wins on account of sequencing. By BaseRuns calculations the Cubs should be scoring 4.45 runs per game while allowing 4.55 runs per game. Looking at their team pitching stats backs that up, showing they have probably been stranding runners at an unsustainable clip with a 77.4% left on base rate, 2nd in MLB, which has resulted in a team ERA of 3.73 compared to a FIP of 4.29, the second largest negative differential in MLB. Lots of indicators that their pitching is in for some pretty notable regression as the season progresses, which is probably why the projections still favor the Brewers at this point with division odds of 64.6% vs 29.6% (PECOTA), 57.4% vs 27.0% (FanGraphs) and 45% vs 38% (538).
  16. sveumrules
    Except he's barely been needed, taking only 97 (20th most, about 2.2%) of the Brewers 4,382 total position player plate appearances from 2020-21. When he has been sparingly called upon, he has posted a 115 wRC+, putting him in a three way tie for 5th on the team along with Yelich & Wong.
  17. sveumrules
    UPDATE!!! Jace has taken 36 of the Brewers 2,194 position player plate appearances so far, or about 1.6% of the team total.
  18. sveumrules
    Don't look now, but the Brewers could run out a lineup with eight above average hitters tonight if they so choose... 3B Urias (103 wRC+) 1B Vogelbach (103 wRC+) LF Yelich (118 wRC+) RF Garcia (110 wRC+) C Narvaez (147 wRC+) SS Adames (145 wRC+) CF Taylor (111 wRC+) 2B Peterson (117 wRC+)
  19. sveumrules
    They've definitely been farming wins for Suter since he came back in 2019 & it's worked. He's now up to 13 wins (against only 2 losses) in 68 innings over 44 appearances in 147 team games since returning from TJ in September of 2019. There are only three relievers with more wins than Suter over that timeframe, all with considerably more work...Yusmeiro Petit (14 wins, 137 G, 138 IP), Craig Stammen (15 wins, 125 G, 141 IP) and Daniel Hudson (16 wins, 112 G, 117 IP).
  20. sveumrules
    The Mets fired hitting coach Chili Davis on May 4th, at which point their position players had a 104 wRC+ over 789 PAs. Since the firing, Mets position players have posted a 102 wRC+ over 1,073 PAs.
  21. sveumrules
    ZiPS has Yelich projected at an 886 OPS rest of season compared to 762 for Avisail, I'd guess whatever internal projections the Reds have are in the same ballpark. Add the platoon advantage on top of that & the numbers probably indicated Garcia was an easier out, not to mention walking Yelich also set up a double play possibility.
  22. sveumrules
    I don't think anyone believes Hoby is a true talent level 1.80 ERA reliever, but ZiPS projects him for a 3.72 ERA rest of season compared to a current league average ERA for an NL reliever of 4.07, so he should be perfectly cromulent as a 5th/6th/7th option out of the pen.
  23. sveumrules
    David Hamilton getting a mention in the latest Daily Prospect Notes at FanGraphs... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/daily-prospect-notes-june-9-10/ Thought the emphasized portion of the blurb was pretty encouraging on both a personal & organizational level... "He’s asserting himself among the several internal candidates to replace Willy Adames a few years from now."
  24. sveumrules
    Lorenzo's already at 31 games & essentially half a win (0.6 fWAR/0.4 bWAR). Even if he comes back after the All Star Break there will still be 70 games on the schedule as of now. I think that should be enough time for him to crack 81 games & maybe even approach 1.5 WAR. Sure, it isn't the most efficient use of 17 million, but we knew back in January of 2018 what we are currently experiencing was a very real possibility. For big picture people, Cain has already provided somewhere around 8 (FanGraphs) or 10 (BRef) WAR so far on what amounts to a 4/64 contract after opting out of 2020 with another year plus still to go. For those more interested in the now, despite Cain missing time with injuries he has been somewhat productive when on the field & still has an opportunity to inject some old man energy down the stretch run. In the meantime JBJ can have more time to straighten it out &/or it opens up more opportunities for TT so we should hopefully have enough depth to cover things.
  25. sveumrules
    Brewers CF are currently 13th in WAR... https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2021&month=41&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31 Comparing that to Spotrac's positional spending chart, where Brewers CF come in 3rd.... https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/positional/center-field/full-payroll/ And it looks like the Blue Jays at 24.2 million for 0.4 WAR & Yankees at 10.8 million for 0.3 WAR have been less efficient than the Brewers 23 million for 1.0 WAR to this point.
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