sveumrules

Over the last three years there are 164 players with at least 1,000 plate appearances. Of those 164 players, McNeil ranks 13th in wRC+ (139), mostly on the strength of his elite bat to ball skills, .319 batting average (1st) & 12.0 K% (7th). This would be the exact kind of hitter the Brewers don't have & everyone pines for during IGTs. He also saw a sizable uptick in BB% from 5.6/6.2 in 2018/19 to 9.6 in 2020. Maybe it was small sample noise, or maybe he made a deliberate adjustment to be more selective in his approach, or maybe pitchers started being more careful since he'd torched them two years running (or likely some combination of all three). Publicly avaialable value estimators have McNeil (63.1 Baseball Trade Values, #39 FanGraphs top 50) notably higher than Hader (23.5 Baseball Trade Values, unranked FanGraphs top 50), so assuming those rankings are generally reflective of industry consensus it looks like a one for one McNeil/Hader swap would be that rare desperation trade...but hey, it's the Mets, so anything is possible.

Kim is definitely intriguing. Between him, Didi, Semien & Andrelton the SS class is kind of sneaky deep this winter. Wouldn't be surprised if Simmons had to settle for a one year prove it deal since defense has always been his calling card & he put up middling marks in the field for the first time ever in the abbreviated season. Andrelton's contact ability is also pretty elite. His 8.4 K% is the lowest out of 164 batters with at least 1,000 PAs since 2018, & despite having no power & not really walking, his 282/328/391 line is good for a near league average 97 wRC+ over that time.

MM can cadillac his home runs & flip hits bat, but if someone else celebrates their success it is some huge affront? For an alpha male with hundreds of millions in future guaranteed income, guy sure is fragile. Almost kinda pulling for the Astros at this point. Now that the Marlins are out of it, a 29-31 WS champion is probably thee most "2020" of the remaining possibilities.

There have been numerous discussions over the last howsoever many years about the clearly changing aesthetic of the game, which got me curious just how much baseball has changed over the years. My earliest MLB memories of baseball go back to 1986 - pulling an Earnie Riles card from my first ever pack of Topps, watching Teddy Higuera striking out against Fernando Valenzuela in the All Star Game, Mookie's dribbler through Buckner's legs - so I started there. You'll notice some outcomes missing from the table below. So I'll give a quick summary on those first. Also, all plate appearance outcome ratios are for position players only, I used the NP tab on the FanGraphs leaderboards to exclude pitchers from the yearly league totals. Triples: so random & infrequent they have been the most consistent outcome over the years. From 1986-1994 they were at 0.5-0.6%, then stayed at 0.5% for 19 straight years before dropping down to 0.4-0.5% for the last eight seasons. Sac Flies: also remarkably consistent. At 0.7% in 1986-87, they then ran off 15 straight years at 0.8% before dropping slightly to 0.7-0.8% for the next 14 years & now down to 0.6-0.7% the last four seasons. Hit By Pitch: this was the most interesting to me of the infrequent outcomes. A mostly slow steady climb from 0.5-0.6% over 1986-1992 up to 0.7-0.9% from 1993-2000 then a little 0.8-1.0% plateau from 2001 to 2017 & a slow creep up to 1.2% over the last three seasons. Sac Bunts: the disappearing. Starting at 0.7-0.8% from 1986-94, then falling to 0.5-0.6% from 1995-2013 before 0.4% in 2014 down to 0.2% the last three seasons. Reminder this is just the rate of position players bunting, pitchers not included. Also, BIPOE% is the percentage of plate appearances that ended with Balls In Play Out or Error. 86: 16.2 1B% | 4.1 2B% | 2.4 HR% | 9.0 BB% | 14.8 K% | 51.1 BIPOE% | 4.41 R/G 87: 16.1 1B% | 4.3 2B% | 2.8 HR% | 9.1 BB% | 15.0 K% | 50.3 BIPOE% | 4.72 R/G 88: 16.4 1B% | 4.1 2B% | 2.1 HR% | 8.3 BB% | 14.1 K% | 52.4 BIPOE% | 4.14 R/G 89: 16.5 1B% | 4.0 2B% | 2.0 HR% | 8.6 BB% | 14.3 K% | 52.1 BIPOE% | 4.13 R/G 90: 16.5 1B% | 4.1 2B% | 2.1 HR% | 8.8 BB% | 14.4 K% | 51.5 BIPOE% | 4.26 R/G 91: 16.2 1B% | 4.1 2B% | 2.2 HR% | 8.8 BB% | 14.8 K% | 51.1 BIPOE% | 4.31 R/G 92: 16.5 1B% | 4.2 2B% | 1.9 HR% | 8.7 BB% | 14.2 K% | 51.8 BIPOE% | 4.12 R/G 93: 16.6 1B% | 4.4 2B% | 2.4 HR% | 8.8 BB% | 14.6 K% | 50.4 BIPOE% | 4.60 R/G 94: 16.2 1B% | 4.7 2B% | 2.7 HR% | 9.1 BB% | 15.4 K% | 49.1 BIPOE% | 4.92 R/G 95: 16.2 1B% | 4.5 2B% | 2.7 HR% | 9.3 BB% | 15.7 K% | 48.9 BIPOE% | 4.85 R/G 96: 16.3 1B% | 4.6 2B% | 2.9 HR% | 9.3 BB% | 16.0 K% | 48.2 BIPOE% | 5.04 R/G 97: 16.1 1B% | 4.6 2B% | 2.7 HR% | 9.1 BB% | 16.5 K% | 48.3 BIPOE% | 4.77 R/G 98: 16.0 1B% | 4.7 2B% | 2.8 HR% | 8.9 BB% | 16.4 K% | 48.4 BIPOE% | 4.79 R/G 99: 16.1 1B% | 4.7 2B% | 3.0 HR% | 9.6 BB% | 15.9 K% | 48.0 BIPOE% | 5.08 R/G 00: 15.8 1B% | 4.8 2B% | 3.1 HR% | 9.8 BB% | 15.9 K% | 48.0 BIPOE% | 5.14 R/G 01: 15.5 1B% | 4.8 2B% | 3.0 HR% | 8.6 BB% | 16.8 K% | 48.4 BIPOE% | 4.78 R/G 02: 15.5 1B% | 4.7 2B% | 2.8 HR% | 8.9 BB% | 16.3 K% | 48.9 BIPOE% | 4.62 R/G 03: 15.7 1B% | 4.8 2B% | 2.9 HR% | 8.7 BB% | 15.9 K% | 49.2 BIPOE% | 4.73 R/G 04: 15.7 1B% | 4.8 2B% | 3.0 HR% | 8.8 BB% | 16.3 K% | 48.6 BIPOE% | 4.81 R/G 05: 15.9 1B% | 4.9 2B% | 2.8 HR% | 8.3 BB% | 16.0 K% | 49.3 BIPOE% | 4.59 R/G 06: 16.0 1B% | 5.0 2B% | 2.9 HR% | 8.6 BB% | 16.3 K% | 48.4 BIPOE% | 4.86 R/G 07: 16.0 1B% | 5.0 2B% | 2.7 HR% | 8.7 BB% | 16.6 K% | 48.3 BIPOE% | 4.80 R/G 08: 15.8 1B% | 4.9 2B% | 2.7 HR% | 8.9 BB% | 17.0 K% | 48.1 BIPOE% | 4.65 R/G 09: 15.6 1B% | 4.8 2B% | 2.8 HR% | 9.1 BB% | 17.5 K% | 47.6 BIPOE% | 4.61 R/G 10: 15.6 1B% | 4.7 2B% | 2.6 HR% | 8.7 BB% | 18.0 K% | 47.8 BIPOE% | 4.38 R/G 11: 15.5 1B% | 4.6 2B% | 2.5 HR% | 8.3 BB% | 18.1 K% | 48.3 BIPOE% | 4.28 R/G 12: 15.4 1B% | 4.6 2B% | 2.8 HR% | 8.1 BB% | 19.2 K% | 47.4 BIPOE% | 4.32 R/G 13: 15.6 1B% | 4.5 2B% | 2.6 HR% | 8.1 BB% | 19.3 K% | 47.5 BIPOE% | 4.17 R/G 14: 15.7 1B% | 4.5 2B% | 2.3 HR% | 7.8 BB% | 19.9 K% | 47.3 BIPOE% | 4.07 R/G 15: 15.4 1B% | 4.6 2B% | 2.7 HR% | 7.8 BB% | 19.9 K% | 47.1 BIPOE% | 4.25 R/G 16: 15.1 1B% | 4.6 2B% | 3.1 HR% | 8.3 BB% | 20.6 K% | 45.9 BIPOE% | 4.48 R/G 17: 14.7 1B% | 4.6 2B% | 3.4 HR% | 8.7 BB% | 21.2 K% | 45.1 BIPOE% | 4.65 R/G 18: 14.4 1B% | 4.5 2B% | 3.1 HR% | 8.6 BB% | 21.7 K% | 45.2 BIPOE% | 4.45 R/G 19: 14.0 1B% | 4.7 2B% | 3.7 HR% | 8.7 BB% | 22.4 K% | 44.2 BIPOE% | 4.83 R/G 20: 13.6 1B% | 4.2 2B% | 3.5 HR% | 9.2 BB% | 23.4 K% | 43.7 BIPOE% | 4.65 R/G I guess the headline for me would be that as recently as 2005, a plate appearance was just as likely to end in a single (15.9%) as a strikeout (16.0%). Over the last 15 years that ratio has tilted to 13.6% for a single & 23.4% for a strikeout. I think the other thing that jumps out to me is that recently the numbers have been much more volatile. From 1986-2014, 1B% has an overall downward trend, but it is within a pretty narrow band from 16.6-15.5%. Over the last six seasons (only 1/5th as long) it has already dropped a full 2%. Same thing with K%. It took from 1986-2012 (27 seasons) to rise 4.4% from 14.8% to 19.2%, but has only taken from 2013 until this year (8 seasons) to rise the other 4.2% from 19.2% to 23.4%. Even doubles, which held relatively steady between 4.4-5.0% from expansion in 1993 through 2019, dropped down to 4.2% this year for the first time in over 25 years.

I don't think the current Twins front office will feel a sense of desperation because (A) twelve of those eighteen losses happened between 2004 & 2010 so they have essentially zero relevance to the current team & (B) they likely understand its typically foolish to act out of desperation.

Yeah, I had no idea who Randy was when the Rays acquired him either. I must have missed his lone 2019 plate appearance against the Brewers when Taylor Williams struck him out. But once the Rays traded a top 50 prospect for him, my curiosity was definitely piqued. At the same time, even the genius Rays aren't infallibe. They traded NL ROY contender Jake Cronenworth (plus Tommy "LIT" Pham) to the Padres before the season for popless (though still top 100 ranked prospect) Xavier Edwards. Now obviously Liberatore & Xavier still have plenty of time to live up to the hype (or not), just thought it was interesting that never ranked prospects like Arozarena & Cronenworth were already making outsized impacts compared to their consensus industry evaluations.

Don't sleep on Arozarina, though. All he's done since getting into affiliated ball is hit. He's also major league ready. I think he's a stud. Glad to see him out of the NL Central. Looking like the Rays evaluation of Arozarena was pretty on point so far.

A 4 MPH increase over the last 18 years (89.0 in 2002 to 93.1 in 2020) means likely closer to 7-8 MPH over the last 40+ years, so no, not a 2 mph increase. Darryl Kile's last year was 2002, the first year of Pitch FX. His average curveball was 71.8 MPH. The average curve ball in MLB for 2020 was 79.2 MPH. I would guess there are zero pitchers in MLB who throw a curve ball similar to Niekro's or Blyleven's at this point & there were only 10 qualified starters & 3 qualified relievers with an average curveball velocity at 71.8 MPH or below in 2020, so not too many left like Kile either.

Here are the qualified batters (with enough service time for the market to have had an opportunity to value them) who struck out with the lowest frequency in 2020, along with their 2020 salary... DJ LeMahieu | 9.7 K% | 12 million Nolan Arenado | 10.0 K% | 35 million Didi Gregorious | 11.8 K% | 14 million Kyle Seager | 13.3 K% | 19 million Anthony Rendon | 13.4 K% | 25.5 million Freddie Freeman | 14.1 K% | 22 million Manny Machado | 14.6 K% | 30 million Justin Turner | 14.9 K% | 19 million Michael Brantley | 15.0 K% | 15 million Mookie Betts | 15.4 K% | 27 million That looks like a pretty appropriately compensated player group to me. Tommy LaStella (5.3 K%, 129 wRC+), DJLM, Yuli Gurriel (11.7 K%, but only a 79 wRC+), Didi, Jurickson Profar (13.9 K%, 111 wRC+), Turner, Brantley & George Springer (17.1 K%, 146 wRC+) are all contact hitting free agents this winter, so there are definitely a number of options out there, though I'd guess LaStella & Profar are the only ones realistically in the Brewers price range.

Sure, 40 years ago a small handful of guys threw in the 90s. Maybe a couple two tree even threw high 90s. Now multiple guys on every team do & with nastier breaking stuff than ever. Pretending pitching hasn't evolved in 40 years is just being willfully obtuse. The average MLB fastball in 2002 was 89.0 MPH & thrown 64.4% of the time, this year it was 93.1 MPH & only thrown 50.5% of the time.

The Rays also had zero sac bunts this year, they are generally regarded as a pretty smart organization. The Reds also had zero, so it wasn't like the Brewers were alone on some sort of no sac bunt island. There were seven more teams with exactly one sac bunt all year, three more with two, two more with three, four more with four. Who had the most? The Orioles with 15.

Narvaez, Nottingham, Pina, Gyorko, Hiura, Arcia, Urias, Yelich, Cain, Garcia, Gamel, Taylor is twelve position players. Burnes, Woodruff, Houser, Lindblom, Lauer, Suter, Yardley, Peralta, Topa, Rasmussen, Williams, Hader is twelve pitchers. I'd guess around 20 of those guys will be on the 2021 opening day roster. Would you consider 6 new players major roster turnover, or do you expect there to be more?

If Cohen wants to change the LOLMets perception quickly, surely he can find someone better than the podunk Milwaukee GM coming off his OMG worst offseason evah.

Postseason Woody versus Postseason Kershaw...I like our chances tonight.

He is likable fellow but he has no business being a key pitcher in the play offs. I actually felt bad for him more than angry. He just isn’t a good pitcher and shouldn’t be out there. There are 416 pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched since 2019. Of those 416, Suter ranks 8th in ERA- (48), 12th in FIP- (62) & 19th in xFIP- (66). What criteria are you using to determine Suter isn't a good pitcher?

You really think the Brewers are that fragile? Maybe it killed any confidence a certain percentage of fans had, but given the resilience this team has shown both this season & under Counsell in general, its pretty clear the actual players have exponentially more confidence in themselves than a certain percentage of their fans do.

Looks like 538 has us at 22% to win the series while FanGraphs is a little more optimistic at 33.8%.

At first I thought it was being reported that he was done for the season, but now I'm seeing some reports that he could be back if we were to advance a couple of rounds into the playoffs? But, let's be honest - no way this team is advancing a couple of rounds, so probably safe to say his season is over. Please refrain from honesty in this thread, unless you are honestly optimistic.

This year there has been one double every 23.5 plate appearances versus one double every 21.4 plate appearances in 2019, one double every 22.0 plate appearances in 2018 & one double every 21.6 plate appearances in 2017, so definitely a pretty sharp drop. Over the last 20 years it looks like peak doubles was around 2006-07 when it was one double every 20.1 plate appearances.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/03/gm-trade-history-brewers-david-stearns.html Based on the above list here is how I would grade Stearns trades so far... 2015-16: 5-1 (W: Chase/Isan, Keon, Freddy, Villar, Manny. L: Khris) 2016: 1-1 (W: Brinson. L: Fresh Prince) 2016-17: 1-1 (W: Shaw. L: Maldonado) 2017: 3-0 (W: Walker, Jeffress, Swarzak) 2017-18: 1-0 (W: Yelich) 2018: 5-2 (W: Gio, Grandy, Cedeno, Moose, Soria. L: Schoop, Ji-Man) 2018-19: 2-0-1 (W: Gamel, Claudio. T: Broxton/Wahl [zero in zero out]) 2019: 2-1 (W: Pomeranz, Lyles. L: Aguilar) 2019-20: 1-1-1 (W: Narvaez. L: Grisham/Davies T: Anderson/Spanberger [zero in zero out]) 2020: 1-0 (W: Phelps) Add it all up & I'd say his record on trades is 21-7-2, with the only trade that has potentially detrimental long term effects still pending being Grisham/Davies.

99% sure I saw legendary Brewers (& Wisconsin sports) super fan FREEWAY weed whacking with a City of Milwaukee landscaping crew when I was stopped at a red light earlier today. Can't imagine that random FREEWAY sightings are anything other than a good sign.

Yup, roughed Bauer up once already this year. Might as well do it again, get his ERA up over two for the season & help out Corbin in the process.

Yeah, the stark contrast between AL & NL is pretty interesting this year. In the AL there are 6 teams with 30+ wins, 7 teams with 24 or less & only 2 in the middle. NL on the flip side has 4 teams with 32+ wins, 5 teams with 24 or less & the other 6 clumped in the middle.

Seven games left to find out if the 2020 Brewers truly are a team of density.

I made a post in the lineup thread on August 30th noting our actual runs scored per game was 4.00 versus a projected rest of season runs scored per game of 4.84. Actual runs scored per game since August 30th is at 5.05, much closer to the projected rest of season than the actual season results to that point. A pretty good example demonstrating how projections typically have better predictive capabilities than 30 some games of actual results. And playing different players The new players (Vogelbach, Peterson, Nottingham & Taylor) have definitely helped, but they've only accounted for 147 of 743 plate appearances since August 30th, or about 20%, so the majority of the positive regression has came from players already on the roster... Keston 87 wRC+ before 08/30 vs 122 since, Avisail 76 wRC+ vs 129, Gamel 61 wRC+ vs 144, Braun 60 wRC+ vs 207, Narvaez 59 wRC+ vs 74 wRC+ (276 PAs or 37% since August 30th)