sveumrules

ZiPS has Maikel projected for a 95 OPS+ & 0.5 WAR in 2021. MLBTR projected him around 4.5-5.0 million before he was non-tendered, so I'd guess he gets a one year deal around 4 million.

Expand to 32 teams. 4 x 8 team divisions (AL/NL East/West) 12 games vs 7 division opponents = 84 games 6 games vs 8 league opponents = 48 games 3 games vs 8 interleague opponents = 24 games TOTAL = 156 games The last week/six games of the season would be flexible scheduling to decide close races, determine playoff seeding / draft order etc. Each division winner gets a bye, while the four best non division winners play best of 3 Wild Card rounds before moving onto the standard DS, CS & WS.

Change baseball to football. Just go full on confusion...Shaker Heights Lawn Bowling Club.

Cleveland Baseball Team.

538 has odds for the #1 seed at GB (61%), NO (31%), LA (5%), SEA (3%) currently.

People in USA watching Chernobyl when it came out May 2019, "lol Russia, we could never bungle something THAT bad."

If he was taken in the Rule 5 he would have to be on the MLB roster all season. By trading for him, Milwaukee will not be required to do so. Seems like a pretty meaningful distinction. And no other team thought he was worthy either. Right, no team thought he was worthy of being kept on the MLB roster all year long. The Brewers think he is worthy of being optioned to the minors to begin the year & will have the ability to do so. Any organization acquiring him via the Rule 5 would not have had that ability. That's the distinction I believe is worth noting.

Malik Collymore put up a .786 OPS in 155 PAs between A/A+ as a 22 year old. Yhonathan Barrios posted a 3.86 ERA in 58 IP between A/A+ with a 7.7 K9 / 3.5 BB9 as a 22 year old. Crawford managed a 2.81 ERA in 121 IP between A+/AA with a 9.9 K9 / 2.0 BB9 as a 22 year old. It would appear that Leo is much farther along at the same age than either Malik or Yhonathan were.

If he was taken in the Rule 5 he would have to be on the MLB roster all season. By trading for him, Milwaukee will not be required to do so. Seems like a pretty meaningful distinction.

In 159 IP at A+ as a 21/22 year old Crawford posted a 2.87 ERA with a 9.4 K9 / 2.2 BB9. In 30 IP at AA as a 22 year old he posted a 2.37 ERA with an 8.3 K9 / 2.1 BB9. Might not have the pure stuff to crack prospect lists, but looks like he might know how to pitch a little. I'd say that is better than nothing, or cash, or a couple two tree teenagers in rookie ball.

Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs seems to like the guys Tampa is getting back... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rangers-pay-a-steep-price-to-add-another-1b-dh-in-nate-lowe/ To give you some context, Hernandez (50 FV), who turns 21 next week, is the type of college-aged hitting prospect who I’d have evaluated similar to Orioles 2020 first-rounder Heston Kjerstad, a college bat worthy of a top-ten pick in a draft. The 20-year-old Basabe (40+ FV) is a high-variance, late-second-round sort of prospect, and Ovalles (35+ FV) is the kind of player who’d get a mid-six-figure deal on day three of the draft, though it’s likely not all teams think of him that way.

When Yelich signed his extension, ZiPS projected him for a 148 OPS+ & 5.7 WAR in 2021. From 2021-28 he came in at 30 WAR total. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/christian-yelich-cashes-in/ His new ZiPS is at a 135 OPS+ & 4.3 WAR. Applying a similar aging curve comes out to around 20.5 projected WAR from 2021-28.

Tried to figure out where some of the OPS+ projections would end up in the 2021 Offense thread... Looks like they came in at 135 (Yelich), 102 (Hiura), 98 (Avisail), 94 (Omar) & 90 (Urias) Also made educated guesses on Vogelbach (115), Cain (fall slightly from 92) & Hader (couple two tree points higher than 163 ERA+) in different threads, they came in at 112 (Vogelbach), 92 (Cain) & 164 (Hader).

Three more teams - the Astros, Phillies & Diamondbacks - have bern released, so we're now a lil over half way through. With only 14 teams remaining, there is like a 7% chance the Brewers are next. Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Gurriel (230) 107 | 76 | 94 (-13) Tucker (228) 113 | 123 | 123 (+11) Springer (222) 133 | 140 | 126 (-7) Correa (221) 126 | 92 | 127 (+1) Altuve (210) 132 | 71 | 123 (-9) Reddick (210) 95 | 88 | 91 (-4) Brantley (187) 113 | 126 | 121 (+8) Bregman (180) 154 | 116 | 143 (-9) Maldonado (165) 72 | 98 | 77 (+5) Toro (97) 97 | 39 | 88 (-9) Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Harper (244) 136 | 157 | 139 (+3) McCutch (241) 114 | 102 | 102 (-12) Didi (237) 110 | 119 | 106 (-4) Segura (217) 100 | 106 | 94 (-6) Realmuto (195) 115 | 123 | 114 (-1) Hoskins (185) 122 | 137 | 124 (+2) Bohm (180) 101 | 136 | 108 (+7) Kingery (124) 86 | 37 | 78 (-8) Quinn (116) 79 | 54 | 67 (-12) Bruce (103) 110 | 88 | 96 (-14) Gosselin (102) 68 | 94 | 67 (-1) Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Walker (243) 104 | 110 | 104 (0) Calhoun (228) 99 | 127 | 100 (+1) Escobar (222) 106 | 61 | 95 (-11) Peralta (218) 101 | 106 | 97 (-4) Ahmed (217) 91 | 94 | 88 (-3) Marte (195) 117 | 95 | 111 (-6) Kelly (129) 97 | 71 | 89 (-8) Varsho (115) 96 | 74 | 86 (-10) That brings us up to 160 batters projected for 2021 (out of 310) that had at least 100 PAs in 2020. The margins by which their OPS+ projections have shifted are as follows... 0-4%: 64 5-9%: 49 10-14%: 33 15-19%: 10 20+%: 4

Since Stearns & company arrived there are 25 teams that have spent more money on payroll than the Brewers, but only 8 of those teams have won more games than the Brewers. Of the 17 teams that spent more to win less, 13 made zero or one postseason appearance compared to the Brewers three. Spending money does not necessarily equal winning games.

Yeah, that is a pretty good summation of why I think the odds of Hader getting moved this offseason remain pretty low. If I was a fan of a rich team in the market for relief help I'd prefer Hendriks at 3/30 (MLBTR & FG estimate), then Hand at say 1/7 or 2/12 or whatever, over Hader at like 3/26 (Arbys estimate) plus a prospect haul.

Hendriks only threw 25 IP in 2018, so it doesn't really effect the rate stats all that much, though Hader closes the gap on the counting stats. Triple H relievers 2018-20... Hader | 176 IP | 62 ERA- | 64 FIP- | 5.8 runs WAR | 5.2 FIP WAR Hand | 151 IP | 65 ERA- | 65 FIP- | 3.2 runs WAR | 3.8 FIP WAR Hendriks | 134 IP | 51 ERA- | 50 FIP- | 5.6 runs WAR | 5.3 FIP WAR The projections take all that (& much more) into account & ZiPS has Hendriks at a 163 ERA+ in 2021 with Hand at 138. The Brewers haven't been released yet, but Hader was projected at a 176 ERA+ for 2020 & posted an actual 122 mark. I'd guess his projection slides some for 2021 & ends up a couple two tree points higher than Hendriks.

The Wampum Walloper was before my time, so I never saw him live with my own two eyes, but he might just be thee most underrated hitter in MLB history posting a league best 163 wRC+ & 435 batting runs from 1964-74, topping the like of Hank Aaron (158/421), Frank Robinson (158/414), Willie McCovey (158/376) & like a dozen other HOFers for that eleven year stretch. Highly recommend the link Baldkin posted above to anyone looking to learn more about an individual whose story is still sadly all too relevant all these years later.

No team wants to give up their young guys. But there are no Josh Haders on the free agent market, either. There's a Brad Hand. Yup. Liam Hendriks too. 2019-20 stats for all three... Hader | 94 IP | 64 ERA- (33rd) | 73 FIP- (27th) | 3.2 runs WAR (4th) | 2.6 FIP WAR (5th) Hand | 79 IP | 62 ERA- (28th) | 53 FIP- (6th) | 2.1 runs WAR (27th) | 2.6 FIP WAR (5th) Hendriks | 108 IP | 38 ERA- (1st) | 38 FIP- (2nd) | 5.4 runs WAR (1st) | 5.2 FIP WAR (1st)

Your point is 100% factually correct and noteworthy. But it's impossible not to also look at his stats and observe that this includes a fluky-looking outlier season at age 32 that accounted for 30% of his CAREER bWAR. In 2017 & 2018, Lynn threw his sinker 42.1 & 32.7 percent of the time. In 2019 & 2020 those percentages dropped to 17.3% & 18.5%. The change in results are backed up by a change in pitch usage, so they might be less fluky than a typical outlier year. ZiPS bought into the changes. Coming into 2019 they had Lynn projected for a 100 ERA+, the league average innings eater he has always been. After posting that 141 ERA+ over 208 IP in 2019 his 2020 projection went up to a 120 ERA+. He followed that up with a league best 84 IP & a 136 ERA+, so I wouldn't be surprised if his projection came in around 125-130 ERA+ for 2021.

Mario Feliciano hit 273/324/477 as a 20 year old in A+, striking out 28.8% of the time. Would you say he is an offensive limited player? Keibert Ruiz hit 315/344/497 as an 18 year old in A+, striking out 14.4% of the time. Yes, Keibert's offense has fallen off some since he moved up to AA (about a 95 wRC+ in 725 PAs), but he was a 19/20 year old switch hitting catcher in AA posting identical 7.4% K & BB rates. That has nothing to do with what i said. I'm not comparing to what we have. I stated that i wouldn't trade Hader for a package centered around Ruiz. You maybe implied that, but you didn't state it. My response had everything to do with to your statement "Ruiz is an offensive limited player". It's probably moot regardless though as many here would consider Ruiz/Rios an underpay while the Dodgers likely view it as an overpay.

Lynn is a solid starter, but I don't think anyone would consider him elite. Hader is elite. Dunning is a very good, controllable young pitcher, though. He's a very solid return for one year of Lynn. Weems is a nice piece as well. I think the Rangers did really well on this deal. Over the last two years, Lynn is 5th among starters in FIP based WAR (8.3) & 6th in runs allowed based WAR (8.6). Among relievers Hader has been 5th in FIP based WAR (2.6) & 4th by runs allowed based WAR (3.2). Hader is younger, has a better pre-2019 track record & comes with more years of control, but he is also going to make around 25 million in Arby's where Lynn is only at 9.33 million in salary for one year. Josh's value is probably a scooch higher, but I don't think it's that much higher that someone bowls over Stearns & company with an offer the majority of this board (or Brewer fandom in general) would be happy with.

Mario Feliciano hit 273/324/477 as a 20 year old in A+, striking out 28.8% of the time. Would you say he is an offensive limited player? Keibert Ruiz hit 315/344/497 as an 18 year old in A+, striking out 14.4% of the time. Yes, Keibert's offense has fallen off some since he moved up to AA (about a 95 wRC+ in 725 PAs), but he was a 19/20 year old switch hitting catcher in AA posting identical 7.4% K & BB rates.

Yeah, Rivers is probably the guy right on the line for me in terms of worst guy in/best guy out. Obviously it's a team game, but the QB has the most outsized impact on the end result. The fact Rivers only made it to one AFC Championship game in 14 years would have me leaning best guy out. Being stuck in the same conference with Brady, Peyton & Big Ben, Rivers is kinda like the 80s Bucks of QBs. Really good, but not quite 80s Celtics, 76ers or Pistons.

I don't necessarily disagree that the NL Central will likely be a four team race again in 2021, but what talent are the Brewers hemorrhaging? As I'm sure everyone knows, since the end of the season the Brewers have relinquished control over: Ryan Braun, Corey Knebel, Jedd Gyroko, Ben Gamel, Alex Claudio. Additionally, Brett Anderson declared free agency. Perhaps none a crucial component of the team, but all are legitimate major leaguers. Sure, they are all legit MLB players, but combined with Brett Anderson they accounted for about 1.1 WAR last year. The Reds (Bauer/Iglesias/Casali/Galvis) are losing about 4.8 WAR, the Cardinals (Wong/Miller/Molina/Waino) are losing about 3.6 WAR, & the Cubs (Lester/Quintana/JJ/Kipnis/Schwarber) are losing about 1.7 WAR. I have a feeling the Brewers will miss their departing players the least in 2021 out of the NL Central hopefuls.