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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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I made a post in the lineup thread on August 30th noting our actual runs scored per game was 4.00 versus a projected rest of season runs scored per game of 4.84. Actual runs scored per game since August 30th is at 5.05, much closer to the projected rest of season than the actual season results to that point. A pretty good example demonstrating how projections typically have better predictive capabilities than 30 some games of actual results. -
In 2017, it took all 162 games for the Brewers to miss the playoff by one game (when everyone was hoping for another top 10 pick coming into the season). In 2018, they needed to play a 163rd game to figure out who won the division & who was a wild card. In 2019, the Brewers did not punch their postseason ticket until the 158th game. Four straight falls of compelling baseball with postseason implications sure has been a wild ride.
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That is....amazing. Well apparently that was before Sunday’s hitting stats were factored in because it just got even better!... 2020 Team Batting OPS - UPDATED 1. Brewers (.718 OPS) 2. Reds (.717 OPS) 3. Cubs (.710 OPS) 4. Cardinals (.702 OPS) 5. Pirates (.622 OPS) Wow, looks like the NL Central is gonna need FIVE new hitting coaches next year.
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I was going to wait until the end of the season to put this together, but it seems to fit in with the discussion ongoing here... The Could Have Been 2020 Brewers: C: Grandal (1.1 WAR) Maldonado (0.7 WAR) 1B/DH: Cooper (0.6 WAR) Aguilar (0.3 WAR) Choi (0.3 WAR) IF: Schoop (1.4 WAR), Segura (1.0 WAR), Miller (0.8 WAR), Moose (0.2 WAR) OF: Grisham (2.0 WAR), Brantley (1.0 WAR), Dubon (0.5 WAR), Brinson (0.3 WAR) Total CHB Position Player WAR: 10.2 Actual 2020 Brewers PP WAR: 4.5 SP: Davies (1.7 WAR), Greinke (1.3 WAR), Ponce (0.5 WAR), Fiers (0.5 WAR), Lopez (0.3 WAR), Gio (0.2 WAR) Total CHB Starting Pitcher WAR: 4.5 Actual 2020 Brewers SP WAR: 4.6 RP: Pomeranz (1.4 WAR), JJ (1.2 WAR), Thielbar (0.6 WAR), Kintzler (0.6 WAR), Webb (0.4 WAR), Guerra (0.4 WAR), Soria (0.4 WAR) Total CHB Relief Pitcher WAR: 5.0 Actual 2020 Brewers RP WAR: 2.5 The Could Have Been 2020 Brewers would rank 4th in MLB by both position player & pitching WAR.
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Yeah, Devin has definitely had a more remarkable season as arguably the best reliever in baseball, where Cronenworth has kind of been more of an under the radar guy on a team of young breakout stars. I know team success doesn't typically play into ROY voting, but with SD being such a story this year will be interesting to see if that sways voters at all. May is at 1.1 bWAR, FanGraphs list his teammate Gonsolin on the rookie leaderboards & he's at 1.2 fWAR/1.3 bWAR. Kim has that shiny 1.59 ERA. Sixto Sanchez's last start was kind of a dud, but he's at 1.5 bWAR & the Marlins are a surprise team so I'd imagine he gets some votes too.
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In 2000 Halladay posted a 10.64 ERA (48 ERA+) in 67 IP then followed it up with a 3.16 ERA (145 ERA+) over 105 IP in 2001. Almost 100 points of ERA+ is a pretty crazy swing, but still pales in comparison to Burnes going from a 50 ERA+ last year to a 258 ERA+ so far this year.
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Devin Williams is currently at 1.2 fWAR / 0.9 bWAR, his main competition appears to be Jake Cronenworth with 1.6 fWAR / 1.8 bWAR.
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Does this factor in the 418 games that Molitor played as a DH for the Brewers, compared to the 35 that Braun has played? Would Molitor have been able to accumulate 1,000 more plate appearances (and the subsequent WAR, which is a counting stat) had the Brewers been a NL team when he played? Yes, the positional adjustment debits Molitor for the 418 games at DH plus the 131 at 1B (& even the 8 in corner OF) while crediting him for the majority of his career when he was a 3B (792 games) plus the 400 games at 2B, the 57 at SS & the 42 in CF. Whereas Braun has been debited for almost the entirety of his career being corner OF. The two years Molitor was the primary DH (91-92), our primary 1B was Franklin Stubbs (0.3 WAR) so I think he would have still been able to find playing time, if the AL had never adopted the DH or the Brewers had already switched to the NL by then.
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Hard for me to hold Molly leaving & having success elsewhere against him when he wanted to stay but ownership was just too cheap to pay the man coming off 4.8 WAR in 92, 5.3 WAR in 91, 3.2 WAR in 90, 5.7 WAR in 89, 5.2 WAR in 88 & 6.0 WAR in 87. 30 WAR in a six year stretch, pretty good & just short of the 33 WAR Braun posted over his first six years, though that is mitigated somewhat by the fiasco. The difference for me would be the 30 WAR Molitor put up over the nine seasons before his six year peak being clearly better than the 14 WAR Braun has put up in the 8 seasons following his (somewhat tainted) six year peak.
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It's extremely close, and an argument can be made either way. Braun is undoubtedly a better hitter than Molitor, 135 vs 125 on OPS+ & 319 vs 269 on batting runs. But Molly still has over 1,000 more plate appearances (+276 vs +230 replacement), was a better base runner (+57 vs +24), played more difficult positions (-13 vs -59 positional) & fielded those positions better (+12 vs -33). Add it all up & it's not really all that close with Molly coming out at 60 WAR against 47 for Braun. Now if Braun wins a World Series MVP this year or next year or (hey why not) both years, I might be able to be persuaded.
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2019 Grisham | 183 PA | 91 OPS+ | 0.6 WAR 2019 Urias | 249 PA | 77 OPS+ | 0.6 WAR
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I wouldn't say the panic meter necessarily started on 1. Outside of the PCL he had always been a middling hitter. In A+ at age 19, Urias hit 330/397/440 (130 wRC+) over 531 PAs with more walks than strikeouts (7.5 BB% vs 6.8 K%). In AA at age 20, Urias hit 296/398/380 (124 wRC+) in 526 PAs again walking more than striking out (12.9 BB% vs 12.4 K%). This landed him at #32, #36 & #74 on the BA, MLB & BPro top 100s entering 2018. His age relative results were far from middling before the PCL.
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What is the unit of measure for blame? I googled and found something about SOBS (Self & Other Blame Scale). Either way, I think 0% is definitely too low & 100% is definitely too high for Haines share of the blame for the near team wide hitting struggles this year. Will Stearns & Company determine that his share of the blame is enough to cost him his job? Stay tuned, I guess.
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Assuming that since they are using a best of three first round during a pandemic shortened 60 game season they will do the exact same thing during a regular 162 game season reminds me of this product an old coworker of mine at Initech was working on. It was a mat, with various conclusions on it, that one could jump to. Wonder what ever happened to that guy?
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Still think the best would be to go to seven playoff teams where the three division winners get byes to the DS, then you have a series of three consecutive winner take all wild card games to determine the 4th DS team... Day 1: WC4 @ WC3 Day 2: D1 winner @ WC2 Day 3: D2 winner @ WC1 Day 4: Division Series begin If they do leave it at eight teams I don't think they'll keep first round best of three after a 162 game season, but instead a set up could be something like this... WC8 @ DW1 WC7 @ DW2 WC6 @ DW3 To still get an advantage for winning the division these series would be structured so the Wild Card team has to sweep a three game road series against the Division Winner to move on, or the series is over once the Division Winner wins one game. Then just leave WC4 vs WC5 as a standard best of 3.
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When is it time to worry about Christian Yelich?
sveumrules replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Over 2018-19, Yelich posted a 170 wRC+ & 15.4 WAR. Pretty insane numbers obviously, but I was curious just how rarefied that kind of air was in recent history. 2002 is when UZR for defense & base running encompassing more than just SB/CS started getting folded into WAR, so that seemed like a good starting point. From 2002-19, there were 17 different two year stretches with a total of 2,229 qualifying batter seasons. Of those 2,229 qualifying two year stretches only 15 (less than 1%) cleared both both a 170 wRC+ & 15 WAR. Six by Trout, four by Pujols, two by Bonds & one each by Yelich, Cabrera & A-Rod. When Christian signed his extension, ZIPS projected him for about 30 WAR from 2021-2028 & that still seems like an attainable median outcome to me. Assuming no more pandemic shortened seasons, he will be paid 202.5 million for those years, or an entirely reasonable 6.75 million per WAR if he can manage to hit that 30 WAR projection. -
And he’s going the other way a lot. I know the odds are stacked against him, but I’m hoping the NL DH sticks around for next year and they’re able to take a chance on Vogelbach having a breakout stretch. However, if rosters shrink back down (or there isn’t a DH) it seems like an anti-Stearns move to roster a guy with zero positional flexibility. It'll be hard to get rid of him after he wins World Series MVP
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I would have gone with the Beloit Dobblers. Logo could have been a guy in a trench coat holding a boom box over his head.
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I would have gone with the Beloit Dobblers. Logo could have been a guy in a trench coat holding a boom box over his head.
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I would have gone with the Beloit Dobblers. Logo could have been a guy in a trench coat holding a boom box over his head.
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The pitching staff is in the upper half of MLB in almost every pitching stat. It's been well discussed that the pitching has not been the problem. With any semblance of an offense they would be leading the league and big-time contenders. They are in the bottom 5 of all baseball in BA - Runs scored - OBP - OPS - Strikeouts. Sadly, Stearns' great journeyman experiment of 2020 has been an abysmal failure with one lone exception, Jed Gyorko. Right, the pitching staff has been great. It's almost like everybody that wanted Chris Hook fired at the start of last year was being overly reactionary based on a small sample of bad results with limited predictive capabilities. Would firing Andy Haines after a small sample of bad results with limited predictive capabilities be similarly overly reactionary? I guess only time will tell.
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The pitching staff is in the upper half of MLB in almost every pitching stat. It's been well discussed that the pitching has not been the problem. With any semblance of an offense they would be leading the league and big-time contenders. They are in the bottom 5 of all baseball in BA - Runs scored - OBP - OPS - Strikeouts. Sadly, Stearns' great journeyman experiment of 2020 has been an abysmal failure with one lone exception, Jed Gyorko. Right, the pitching staff has been great. It's almost like everybody that wanted Chris Hook fired at the start of last year was being overly reactionary based on a small sample of bad results with limited predictive capabilities. Would firing Andy Haines after a small sample of bad results with limited predictive capabilities be similarly overly reactionary? I guess only time will tell.
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The pitching staff is in the upper half of MLB in almost every pitching stat. It's been well discussed that the pitching has not been the problem. With any semblance of an offense they would be leading the league and big-time contenders. They are in the bottom 5 of all baseball in BA - Runs scored - OBP - OPS - Strikeouts. Sadly, Stearns' great journeyman experiment of 2020 has been an abysmal failure with one lone exception, Jed Gyorko. Right, the pitching staff has been great. It's almost like everybody that wanted Chris Hook fired at the start of last year was being overly reactionary based on a small sample of bad results with limited predictive capabilities. Would firing Andy Haines after a small sample of bad results with limited predictive capabilities be similarly overly reactionary? I guess only time will tell.
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2020 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
sveumrules replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
2019 FanGraphs playoff odds with 14 games to play = 28.7% 2020 FanGraphs playoff odds with 14 games to play = 39.7%
