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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    While this is likely said in jest, halfway through the season the Brewers would currently receive a top ten draft pick (either 9th or 10th depending on tiebreaker with Reds). In this strange 60 game season finishing with an opportunity for a good draft pick wouldn’t be the worst consolation for missing the playoffs. I would gladly take a blockbuster trade involving Hader and a top 10 pick next year and call it a season. I would gladly take knocking out the Cubs in the first round & going on to the World Series.
  2. sveumrules
    To your point about Lindblom and small sample sizes for pitchers, I think people forget how much Brandon Woodruff appeared to struggle to begin last year. Much of his trouble was inflated by a high-BAbip which is exactly the case for Lindblom. This is almost uncanny, but below are Brandon Woodruff's first 5 starts from last year as compared to Josh Lindblom's first 25 IP this year. Brandon Woodruff (2019 first 5 starts): [pre]IP H ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip 26.1 30 17 9 32 4 2 5.81 0.283 0.350 0.453 0.803 0.371[/pre] Josh Lindblom (2020 first 6 starts): [pre]IP H ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip 25.2 26 18 12 36 5 2 6.31 0.260 0.351 0.450 0.801 0.356[/pre] Look, I certainly don't think Josh Lindblom is Brandon Woodruff by any means, but I also don't think he's a > 6.00 ERA guy either. I think over a full 162 game season he could probably be a competent #5 starter. I don't think he's ever going to be great, but I think his high BAbip is somewhat skewing his results so far. Woodruff 2019 at 26.1 IP ERA 5.81 | FIP 4.00 | xFIP 4.01 Lindblom 2020 at 25.2 IP ERA 6.31 | FIP 4.52 | xFIP 3.88 ERA has almost zero predictive value in a sample as small as 25 innings, the predictive value of xFIP is much better (though still not infallible of course) in a tiny sample. Much like Woodruff (& the team as a whole) positively regressed in the direction of their xFIP last year after their horrible start by ERA, I would expect Lindblom to do the same & settle in as a perfectly cromulent back of the rotation starter. Or maybe not & Mark Attanasio wasted nine million dollars. Stay tuned.
  3. sveumrules
    It's definitely an example of them maybe having an additional win, if you assume Hader will never give up any runs. There's no guarantee he gets out Polanco (better odds than Phelps with the hindsight of knowing what happened, obviously) or that he subsequently gets through the ninth clean. Even if he does all that, there's no guarantee the Brewers use him three days in a row to pick up the save yesterday. Maybe they do & he gives up a run because he's pitched three days in a row. Maybe they decide not to use him three days in a row & somene else coughs it up. Or maybe not on all those things & we'd have one more win. Guess we'll never know for sure. On the other hand, there are theories out there that with infinite space & time & whatnot that every single possible scenario gets lived out eventually so maybe we will find out one day, or maybe it already happened before but that iteration was so long ago we've all since forgotten about it, wrapped up as we are in the right now.
  4. sveumrules
    The first one that immediately comes to mind is the last one in Pit, when he was warm and a lefty was up with a one-run lead in the 8th and a runner on with 2 outs. If that isn’t a spot to use your dominant LHP, I don’t know when is So the difference between too dumb to actually use him & being ok with his usage is one game? Our bullpen has lost four games in addition to the one that immediately comes to mind. They were... July 28: Hader pitched day before. 6-2 lead entering 7th before Suter/Knebel gave up 4 for the tie & Wahl gave up 2 for the loss in the 8th. Hader also ended up saving the next day's game. August 3: Up 4-2 entering the 7th before Burnes gave up the tying bomb to Abreu with Phelps picking up the loss next inning. August 4: Tied 2-2 entering 7th before Williams picked up the loss on another Abreu RBI. Hader also ended up saving the following game. August 18: Extra inning loss with Hader pitching a clean 10th. So in four of our bullpen's five losses Hader either pitched or picked up a save the following day, two saves in a row in the most recent case. Could Josh maybe have 10 or 11 innings now instead of 9? Sure, I guess. Would our record be any different? I don't think so.
  5. sveumrules
    Hader is currently 369th in innings pitched (8.1), but 9th in Win Probability Added (+1.21) for 2020. That tracks pretty well with his career ranks since 2017 where he is 193rd in IP (213), but 6th in WPA (+9.10). To have such an outsized impact on winning games in so few innings seems to indicate A) the nature of his deployment has likely been carefully considered & B) he probably isn't getting traded in the next week. Right, which shows just how ridiculous it is to not use him while just watching the team blow leads while your best pitcher sits in the bullpen except for like once a week Which games would you have used him in that the Brewers didn't?
  6. sveumrules
    Hader is currently 369th in innings pitched (8.1), but 9th in Win Probability Added (+1.21) for 2020. That tracks pretty well with his career ranks since 2017 where he is 193rd in IP (213), but 6th in WPA (+9.10). To have such an outsized impact on winning games in so few innings seems to indicate A) the nature of his deployment has likely been carefully considered & B) he probably isn't getting traded in the next week.
  7. sveumrules
    At the almost not quite halfway mark it looks like ATL, CHI, LAD & SDP have spots pretty much locked up. With how much of a mess the NL East has been so far, MIA might still have a chance (hanging around 22-26% on 538/FanGraphs) so the only team really out of it currently is PIT. That leaves essentially 10 teams for four spots. Should be fun. After tonight's win both 538 & Fangraphs have the Crew at about a 53% chance to make the postseason, 7th highest in the NL, for whatever that is or isn't worth.
  8. sveumrules
    No doubt the pitching has underperformed some. Current ranks are... ERA-: 101 (18th) | FIP-: 92 (7th) | xFIP-: 86 (3rd) Runs allowed per game: 5.00 (19th) Projected rest of season RA/G: 4.63 (8th) Last year after 26 games the Brewers ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- splits were at 120/118/105, during which time they allowed 5.27 runs per game. Team record was 13-13. By the 60 game mark the ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- positively regressed beyond the more predictive 105 xFIP- mark to a dead even 100/100/100 & the runs allowed per game to 4.77. Team record was 34-26. Even with the shortened season there is still enough time for positive regression to (maybe? hopefully? pretty please with sugar on top?) take effect for both the pitching & hitting.
  9. sveumrules
    You also said the lineup was embarrasingly bad in the August 19 game thread...they scored nine runs. Hoping for a repeat performance tonight. Even bad offenses have big nights. This offense is not good and is really one of the worst in baseball. Yes, the 78 OPS+ they have posted so far is bad, third worst in MLB. (The Pirates OPS+ is 63, speaking of embarrassingly bad) The good news is that the predictive power of a 23 game sample is small when compared to the predictive power of projections & almost the entire Brewer roster is due for positive regression over the remainder of the season.... Player | 2020 OPS+ / ZIPS Proj OPS+ | Difference (Positive Regression Likely Incoming) Holt | -6 / 95 | -101 Omar | 20 / 106 | -86 Gamel | 41 / 86 | -45 Braun | 62 / 107 | -45 Smoak | 69 / 106 | -37 Yelich | 117 / 149 | -32 Sogard | 56 / 85 | -29 Avisail | 88 / 107 | -19 (Just About Right, But Still Underperforming Slightly) Keston | 107 / 115 | -8 Gyorko | 93 / 98 | -5 (Negative Regression Likely Incoming) Urias | 113 / 95 | +18 Arcia | 97 / 75 | +22 Manny | 106 / 78 | +28 I'll take the over on the Brewers finishing the season with a 78 OPS+.
  10. sveumrules
    You also said the lineup was embarrasingly bad in the August 19 game thread...they scored nine runs. Hoping for a repeat performance tonight.
  11. sveumrules
    Player | 2020 OPS+ / ZIPS Proj OPS+ | Difference (Positive Regression Likely Incoming) Holt | 4 / 95 | -91 Omar | 22 / 106 | -84 Gamel | 41 / 86 | -45 Smoak | 61 / 106 | -45 Sogard | 55 / 85 | -30 Braun | 78 / 107 | -29 Yelich | 121 / 149 | -28 (Just About Right, But Still Underperforming Slightly) Keston | 106 / 115 | -9 Avisail | 98 / 107 | -9 Gyorko | 93 / 98 | -5 (Negative Regression Likely Incoming) Urias | 113 / 95 | +18 Arcia | 98 / 75 | +23 Manny | 117 / 78 | +39
  12. sveumrules
    So what you're saying is, if the playoffs started today none of the defending WS Champ Nationals, the pesky Cardinals or the best lineup/rotation in the Central Reds would be in even an expanded postseason pool? If the Brewers are boring & bad, what does that make those teams?
  13. sveumrules
    Braun at 3B & SS in the same inning...where is clancy?!?!?!
  14. sveumrules
    The numbers bear out your observation, so far our ERA- of 92 ranks 13th, our FIP- of 91 ranks 7th & our xFIP- (the most predictive of these stats after a 20 game sample) of 85 ranks 4th. For comparison, when the Brewers pitching opened the year getting shelled last season their ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- stood at 118/117/102 after 20 games. By the 60th game it was at 100/100/100.
  15. sveumrules
    Yelich was #7 in 2019, gotta figure the extension knocks him down a little so I'd probably guess he ends up in the 11-20 range. Woodruff was #41 last year & hasn't shown up yet (& wasn't on the list of non-returning players) so gotta figure he'll be in the 21-30 range. In terms of Hader, I think the crux of why he is unlikely to be traded is because the league in general undervalues relievers (even elite ones like Hader) while Stearns & company understand they are comparable in value to #1 starters. Top Ten in Win Probability Added since 2017 is Verlander (13.16), Scherzer (12.87), deGrom (12.42), Felipe Vazquez (10.11), Hader (8.87), Cole (8.85), Kershaw (8.77), Greinke (8.73), Nola (8.69) & Clevinger (8.51). There are also another six relievers from 11-30 on that WPA since 2017 leaderboard; Kenley Jansen, Yusmeiro Petit, Alex Colome, Taylor Rogers, Brad Hand & Blake Treinen.
  16. sveumrules
    I was so excited I immediately went online & bought tickets when his first start was announced. Texted my buddy to let him know & he texted back, "um, we already have that game in our 20 pack."
  17. sveumrules
    Hader got honorable mention in both of 2018 & 2019, but no mention so far in the 2020 installments released. Super two & those pesky HRs last year must have knocked him out. If the increased slider consistency on display so far this year is for real, his perceived trade value will be irrelevent since he probably won't be going anywhere anyways.
  18. sveumrules
    One third of the way through the season our playoff odds are at 69% (4th in NL) per 538 & 64.1% (5th in NL) per FanGraphs.
  19. sveumrules
    We won a game yesterday, if we win one today that's two in a row. If we win one tomorrow that's called a winning streak. It has happened before.
  20. sveumrules
    I would love to have a loaded farm system, but opportunity to acquire minor league talent is not distributed equally. The state of our farm is almost entirely due to how quickly Stearns & company turned this team into a contender. Before 2016 John Sickels had the Crew with the 5th best farm system in all of MLB. Our top four prospects on the list were Orlando Arcia, Jorge Lopez, Brett Phillips & Jacob Nottingham before you got to Hader in 5th. (Zach Davies & Adrian Houser were #14/#15). Before 2017 Sickels had the Crew with the 7th best farm system, still pretty good. Hader was #2 this time, with Brinson (#1), Corey Ray (#3), Isan Diaz (#4), Mauricio Dubon (#5) & Luis Ortiz (#6) all ahead of Brandon Woodruff (#7) & Freddy Peralta (C+ grade, not ranked). Stearns & company have pretty much held on to all the right guys (who were mostly ranked lower by the experts) while trading the higher ranked guys who propped up the system's value (& have mostly been duds so far).
  21. sveumrules
    No. 19 games is a next to meaningless sample with very little predictve value. While it might be about a third of this pandemic season, it is still less than 12% of an actual season. Before he got hired by the Rays, Jeff Sullivan wrote an article at FanGraphs examining which of actual 1st half results, pythag 1st half results or projected 2nd half results did the best job of predicting actual 2nd half results. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-best-to-predict-the-seasons-second-half/ Even after 80 games (4x more than we've played) the projected 2nd half results still did a better job of predicting the actual 2nd half results than either of 1st half actual or pythag results.
  22. sveumrules
    They also brought in Avisail, Omar & Luis this year. All of whom project to play more than Healey & Holt (& Gamel before LoCain opted out), so kind of weird to leave them off the list. In response to OP, I believe the 649 game sample from 2016-19 where the Brewers won the 9th most games in MLB (more than the Rays, A's or Braves) is more indicative of Stearns & company's true talent level than a 17 game pandemic sample.
  23. sveumrules
    We got the best offensive catcher available besides Yasmani. First base projected essentially equal (Brewers 1B 2019: 107 wRC+ | Smoak 2020 ZIPS: 106 OPS+). Third base projected as an improvement (Brewers 3B 2019: 73 wRC+ | Gyorko 2020 ZIPS: 95 OPS+ | Holt 2020 ZIPS: 95 OPS+ | Sogard 2020 ZIPS: 85 OPS+). We also projected as improved at SS (Brewers SS 2019: 56 wRC+ | Urias 2020 ZIPS: 95 OPS+) from another of Stearns offseason acquisitions.
  24. sveumrules
    I especially thought the same thing when we played the White Sox. That team has so much excitement surrounding it, and we have what we have... The White Sox had the 5th fewest wins from 2017-19. The Brewers had the 8th most wins from 2017-19. We haven't been bad enough recently to stockpile the kind of young talent the White Sox have.
  25. sveumrules
    I think this too may be a case of "too early to tell".
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