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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Ever since they added the second Wild Card I've been dreaming of a crazy season ending tie. Something like Braves, Phillies, Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Dodgers, DBacks & Rockies all ending the season with the exact same number of wins. Would be fun to watch MLB sort that all out.
  2. sveumrules
    With the amount of player movement nowadays, changing leagues isn't as big of a deal as it used to be, but that's also not to say it has zero effect either. Ultimately these are human beings going through major life changes & each individual will respond to that differently. Looking at Schoop's individual match ups he has 34 plate appearances (5th most PAs he has against any specific pitcher) against Chris Archer & has rocked him to the tune of a 1.353 OPS. In typical Schoop fashion the triple slash is 382/382/971.
  3. sveumrules
    Perez pinch hitting begat Hughes pitching begat two Badger Mutual Insurance runs. So it was written, so it has come to pass.
  4. sveumrules
    From 2015-16 (Scooter's last two seasons in Milwaukee) 164 players batted at least 900 times. Of those 164 players, Scooter ranked 149th in wRC+ & 156th in WAR. He didn't start a little slow one season, he was among the worst regulars in MLB for a two year stretch.
  5. sveumrules
    It's not that he can only play one position, it's that he can BARELY play one position. He is -22 career by both DRS & UZR in 4,000+ LF innings. Last year he played 115 games/993 innings in LF. He came in at -13 DRS/-10 UZR. This year he has played 11 games in LF. As a result he has been a 2.5 WAR player in 2016/2017 & is on pace for 3 WAR this year despite the shiny HR/RBI numbers. He is a nice player in the AL but his inability to play the field at a level resembling competency makes him useless in the NL. Really hope OAK doesn't extend Khrush so he can hit free agency after 2019 & we can see just what his true market value is.
  6. sveumrules
    If the Brewers go on a nice little run here it will only be because they're just good enough to beat the bad teams & can't hang with the actual good teams. If they keep the winning up & clinch a wild card spot it won't really matter because they aren't good enough to win one game much less make a deep postseason run. If they do shock the naysayers & make a deep postseason run, but ultimately come up short of winning the World Series it will be a wasted season because Stearns didn't go all in enough to win it all when we had the chance. If they truly blow the world's collective mind & win it all, it will still be difficult to get excited about because our farm system isn't as strong as it was a year ago before our top prospects graduated or were traded for legitimate MLB players.
  7. sveumrules
    For everyone that is upset we got too good too fast & didn't have a chance to truly bottom out & get those premium draft picks, look no further than the Nationals. Harper & Strasburg were the most hyped hitting & pitching prospects of their generation & all Washington has to show for their seven seasons together are four LDS losses. (& it only cost them a literal billion dollars in payroll!!) There are many ways to the mountain top. Our ride is just beginning. No one foresaw Guerra & Keon & Villar in 2016. Last year it was Shaw, Pina, Nelson, Anderson & Knebel contributing more than anyone imagined. The Yelich/Cain acquisitions shocked the baseball world & fanbase with Aguilar breaking out even further after a nice 2017 also coming as a nice surprise. Who knows what unknowns are yet to come? Just because the path is not obvious, does not mean the path is not there.
  8. sveumrules
    He has an 84 OPS+ in 417 plate appearances this year. This idea that he's only being judged on 50 plate appearances is ridiculous. His numbers for the season point to him being a bad hitter, not just his time with the Brewers. His career numbers show he is at best an average hitter. If you want to gamble at least $10 million that 2017 wasn't a fluke, more power to you. I'd rather just cut our losses and try to find an upgrade someplace else. From 2015-17 Schoop posted a 111 wRC+ in 1643 plate appearances. I think that is more indicative of his current true talent level than his results from this season when he was coming back from an oblique injury & now is in a new league with inconsistent playing time. His career wRC+ is 97 & ZIPS projects him for a 96 rest of season, down from a 104 preseason projection. A 2B with league average offense is a baseline 2 WAR player before factoring in defense/baserunning. If he's closer to to the 119 wRC+ he posted in 2017 or the 111 he posted from 2015-17 you're looking at a 4-5 WAR season. No player is without downside risk of course. Schoop has never been the most selective hitter & maybe the league has him figured out or he is just completely cooked two months shy of his 27th birthday.
  9. sveumrules
    In 2016 Schoop was projected at 1.8 WAR by ZIPS. In 2017 his ZIPS projection was for 2.1 WAR. His ZIPS projection for this season was 3.0 WAR. I don't think 50 terrible plate appearances will lower his projection for 2019 all the way down to 1 WAR. Of course we can't afford to pay 10 million per win. Odds are Schoop will produce more value than that in 2019, in which case we wouldn't be.
  10. sveumrules
    Schoop is at 163/180/204 so far with Milwaukee in 50 plate appearances. Bryce Harper hit 103/280/179 over 50 plate appearances from June 10 to June 23. Didi Gregorious hit 149/184/213 in 98 plate appearances over the entire month of May. Those are just two I thought of off the top of my head. I'm sure plenty of other established players have had terrible stretches of 50 PAs or more this year & in many seasons passed. 50 plate appearances isn't legitimate justification for anything.
  11. sveumrules
    10 million essentially buys 1 win at this point. Schoop was worth 0.8 fWAR/1.2 bWWR for Baltimore in a half season prior to the trade. In 2017 he was worth 3.8 fWAR/5.2 bWAR. In 2016 he was at 2.2 fWAR/2.4 bWAR. In 2015 he came in at 1.3 fWAR/1.4 bWAR. It is very unlikely Schoop would be a negative asset with a 10 million salary in 2019.
  12. sveumrules
    The present & the entirety of the past are composed of moments which in the past were considered to be the eventual future. Yet here we are, still stuck in the right now. From that understanding (& just looking out the window), I have very little hope for the future.
  13. sveumrules
    I'm not sure what unit is used to measure Blame, so this may be somewhat inexact, but I would say the blame CC deserves from June onward is less than the credit he deserves for April/May. If I had to attempt to quantify it in some regard I'd say he is currently about +12 overall in Blame, which is good. A positive score indicates less blame while a negative score indicates more blame.
  14. sveumrules
    I'm not frustrated in the least. No one expected the 2017 team to compete for the playoffs at all. That they did & ultimately fell short was not a difficult pill to swallow. The 2018 team was expected to compete for the WC game & that is just what they are doing. They were by no means a postseason lock along the lines of WAS, CHI or LAD. When the Nationals miss the playoffs it will be a difficult pill to swallow. If the Dodgers miss the playoffs it will be even more difficult. The Brewers were around a 50/50 shot for the WC game before the season began. Them not making it there has always been a very realistic outcome.
  15. sveumrules
    FanGraphs updated their sortable prospect board (viewable under the Leaders tab) after the trade deadline. Every prospect with a Future Value of 35+ or greater is listed. I went through each team and summed up the FV of all prospects. For players with a + grade I gave them an extra 2 points. You'll see the results closely align with the total prospects in each system so this quick & dirty methodology is more a measure of overall depth & likely underestimates teams with more premium prospects. Obviously no one would ever trade Vlad Jr (70 FV) for two or even ten 35+ FV guys, as an example. Here's the results.... Team (total prospects listed) FV Sum Total 01. SDP (50) 2202 02. TBR (49) 2150 03. MIN (45) 1895 04. NYY (39) 1614 05. TOR (37) 1591 06. CLE (38) 1575 07. BAL (38) 1571 08. TEX (37) 1551 09. HOU (37) 1544 10. KCR (37) 1505 11. ATL (34) 1503 12. CIN (35) 1502 13. LAD (35) 1470 14. MIA (34) 1439 15. PHI (34) 1434 16. OAK (32) 1375 17. CHC (33) 1364 18. DET (31) 1359 19. STL (32) 1336 20. CHW (29) 1323 21. MIL (30) 1260 22. SFG (30) 1235 23. NYM (29) 1230 24. PIT (28) 1205 25. ARI (29) 1193 26. COL (30) 1160 27. LAA (26) 1112 28. BOS (25) 1024 29. SEA (22) 889 30. WAS (19) 831
  16. sveumrules
    Any player acquired for nothing is being acquired from the so called trash can, otherwise there would be an acquisition cost greater than zero. I thought we already had too many players like this & it reeked of desperation?
  17. sveumrules
    The only premium players I can recall us acquiring that were in high demand over the last 10 years or so are CC, Greinke, Yelich & Cain. Almost every other player on the team over that time frame was either drafted & developed by the team or acquired from the so called trash can.
  18. sveumrules
    Some of our best players have come from the so called trash can. What it says about our team is that we don't have the necessary payroll to consistently play in the deep end of the Free Agency pool. What it says about Stearns is that so far he has shown an ability to extract value from players who other organizations believed would provide none. That is an important & much needed ability for a GM, especially soin a market as small as Milwaukee.
  19. sveumrules
    At very worst the team is right on schedule (yes, even if they miss the playoffs) and that is only because the timetable has been accelerated as a result of them overachieving each of the last two seasons. Entering this season general consensus was that we would be competitive for a WC spot as the WAS, CHI & LAD "super teams" were all considered division locks & that is exactly where we are at the moment. This team was not considered a postseason lock prior to the season, so if they don't make the postseason it would hard for me to consider that a disaster as it has always been a realistic outcome.
  20. sveumrules
    Probably could have left it there.
  21. sveumrules
    Hader started all 25 games he pitched in the minors in 2016. He then started all 12 games he pitched in the minors in 2017 prior to his call up. We should probably pull him out of the pen before it starts to not go all that well. So because it worked well for Hader, who many experts thought was going to wind up in the pen anyway, means it's the right path for every other starter including Burnes, whom no expert ever projected for the pen. Got it. Hader is just one of many examples, as most relievers were starters in the minors. I would never argue every other starter follow the same path. If all your pitchers were relievers the game could never begin & that would be almost as unfortunate as pretending that every time a pitcher surrenders a run it is because they are being misused & not just something that inevitably happens.
  22. sveumrules
    Hader currently has the 12th most relief innings in all of MLB. That would seem to indicate he is throwing plenty. As Baldkin pointed out he is not throwing every 5 or 6 days, it is every 3 or 4. Perhaps your opinion that he does not throw enough is being informed by your erroneous assumption about the frequency with which he pitches? With his current usage pattern Hader has been a top 5 reliever in all of MLB per both WAR & Win Probability Added this season. If he is accomplishing all that while rusty I can't imagine what his true ceiling as a reliever is.
  23. sveumrules
    Hader started all 25 games he pitched in the minors in 2016. He then started all 12 games he pitched in the minors in 2017 prior to his call up. We should probably pull him out of the pen before it starts to not go all that well.
  24. sveumrules
    When I started my list one of the first names I put down was Clayton Andrews at 25. Was super intrigued by him at draft time as an athletic 5'6" lefty with crazy numbers & he has continued to post the same in his small sample so far. Dantel was a similar case at 24. While there isn't nearly as much intel out there on him what I liked is he has a great K/BB rate so far at 31/5 in 27.2 innings & from going over his limited game log it seems he is being used in mostly high leverage spots (4-1 record, 5/7 save opportunities in 15 relief appearances). It's entirely speculative of course but that indicates to me that the organization sees something they like in his makeup. He is also from San Pedro de Macoris which always gets a pitcher a couple extra points in my book.
  25. sveumrules
    Miley now sitting on a 1.53 ERA through his first 29 innings with the Crew. Thought it might be interesting to revisit this thread for some initial reactions. Personal favorites...
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