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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Why change now?
  2. sveumrules
    Prior to today Brewers starting pitchers were 13th in FIP based WAR & 7th in runs allowed based WAR. Their struggles have been overstated, especially considering they were projected around the 20th best rotation prior to the season. My guess is that those numbers have a) been trending the wrong direction and b) they have been somewhat shielded by being taken out of games early. It may not be the worse rotation in the league, but it isn't a good one. Average MLB start: 5.46 IP Average MKE start: 5.31 IP Brewers rotation ranks by month FIP based WAR/runs allowed based WAR: April: 16th/8th May: 19th/20th June: 5th/6th July: 7th/5th
  3. sveumrules
    Prior to today Brewers starting pitchers were 13th in FIP based WAR & 7th in runs allowed based WAR. Their struggles have been overstated, especially considering they were projected around the 20th best rotation prior to the season.
  4. sveumrules
    I think that is a ridiculous assumption, also. Who is making it? The team has indicated the decision was made based on hopefully helping both the player's development & the team's success. Also, ALL of these starting pitchers the Brewers have put in the bullpen = two guys, Hader & Burnes.
  5. sveumrules
    I don't see how the Brewers inserting Burnes immediately into high leverage situations in the middle of a pennant race constitutes "baby"-ing him. The pressure in those situations is likely more intense than starting a game. Last night with the bases loaded & no outs they had Burnes & Jennings ready. CC called the pitcher he thought would best help the team escape the jam, not the older veteran guy.
  6. sveumrules
    They're not doing this with all their pitching prospects because there is no uniform approach. Each pitcher's development is unique & the organization is doing what they feel best serves that specific pitcher's development while also balancing a desire to win games at the Major League level.
  7. sveumrules
    Baseball Reference has this information in their splits. It takes some clicking around but league average swing rate on the first pitch is 28.6%. Brewers are currently at 27.3%, so they do take the first pitch slightly more than league average. Looking at the teams who have hit the best so far this year for comparison you've got NYY (27.5%), HOU (29.0%), BOS (28.6%), CLE (25.7%), CHC (32.9%) & LAD (25.1%). Based on that cursory look it doesn't look like swinging at or taking the first pitch has much correlation to team batting success as there's a wide range of approaches employed by this season's most successful offenses. There's also the issue of how much of that determination is made by the individual players & their personal approaches versus the organization as a whole.
  8. sveumrules
    Rosiak's article from the JS about Corbin's bullpen conversion & the key quote.... https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2018/06/26/milwaukee-brewers-pitching-prospect-corbin-burnes-rolls-punches/733336002/ The switch will be a temporary one and is far from a demotion. The idea was borne out of the desire to get the right-hander to the major leagues more quickly, with the hope Burnes can pitch effectively in relief and help the Brewers back to the playoffs for the first time since 2011. For the first time in my 30+ years of watching the Brewers, they have started to consistently develop pitchers over the last few years. They've earned my trust in how they choose to deploy them.
  9. sveumrules
    Prior to Melvin's arrival the Brewers had gone 10 years since their last winning season & 20 years since their last playoff season. They were already in the ground. Melvin (& Mark A) made the franchise relevant again & hopefully Stearns can take us to the next level. I certainly don't view his seeming refusal thus far to budge from what he feels is appropriate value in negotiations as a weakness.
  10. sveumrules
    Jean Segura, last two seasons with Brewers: 1141 PA | 65 wRC+ (116th of 117 qualifiers). WAR: 0.2 (112th of 117 qualifiers). Scooter Gennett, last two seasons with Brewers: 933 PA | 86 wRC+ (149th of 164 players with at least 900 PA). WAR: 0.4 (156th of 164 players with at least 900 PA). It's difficult to sell incredibly low on players who had no value by virtue of their own measurably terrible performance.
  11. sveumrules
    I'd guess track record might give Yelich the edge. Haniger has 800 PAs of top level performance. He has yet to qualify for a batting title in any single season. He looks to be the real deal, but there's still some volatility there. Yelich has been doing what he does pretty consistently for over 3,000 PAs so I'd imagine the error bars around his future projections are much narrower.
  12. sveumrules
    Jean Segura, last two seasons with Brewers: 1141 PA | 65 wRC+ (116th of 117 qualifiers). Since: 1659 PA | 121 wRC+ (43rd of 205 qualifiers) Scooter Gennett, last two seasons with Brewers: 933 PA | 86 wRC+ (149th of 164 players with at least 900 PA). Since: 886 PA| 130 wRC+ (30th of 131 qualifiers). Baseball is weird.
  13. sveumrules
    Some regression should likely be expected regardless. Manny is currently at a 156 wRC+ compared to a previous career high of 135. The projection systems have him between 134-139 wRC+ rest of season for reference.
  14. sveumrules
    Brewers Top 10 Trade Value is probably somethink like this... Yelich Hader Aguilar Hiura Burnes Peralta Shaw Knebel Cain Woodruff I think the top 8 is pretty clear, then there are a bunch of guys in contention for the 9-10 spots. Cain is interesting as he's older & on a "market rate" deal. At the same time he's on pace for around 6 WAR this year. Even an aggressive aging curve of 1.5 WAR decline per year would put him at 8.5 WAR over the next four seasons. With 66 million due over that same time frame I'd imagine there's still maybe about 20 millionish in surplus value there. Then at ten I went with Woodruff but a solid case could probably be made for Ortiz or Ray as other decently regarded prospects with high minors success or maybe even Maverick or Keon as MLB ready OFs with years of control. Suter could be another possibility, though his lack of top end stuff has always seemed to limit his valuation.
  15. sveumrules
    The posted totals are Wins Above Average, so the zero means the Brewers starters have been around league average by BRef's methodology. FanGraphs has the Brewers starters 13th in MLB by FIP based WAR & 8th by Runs Allowed based WAR. 2015 Royals starters finished the season 24th by FIP based WAR & 19th by Runs Allowed based WAR. Rangers bullpen has a 3.48 ERA (79 ERA-) in 328 innings. Brewers bullpen has a 3.33 ERA (81 ERA-) in 353 innings. Looks pretty evenly matched to me.
  16. sveumrules
    Yes, he has been rehabbing. He is still in the discussion as it appears he will be starting on Thursday per the McCalvy tweet linked by djoctagone in his post.
  17. sveumrules
    Here is the FanGraphs write up on Lemons from the Brewers preseason list, where they slotted him at #16... Lemons’ fastball velocity fluctuated throughout the year. He was mostly 90-93 during his senior spring but was touching 97. After he signed he was 89-92 and then 86-90 during instructional league, where focus was on his mechanics rather than results. The hope is that, as his rangy, thin frame fills out, Lemons’ fastball will not only settle but that it will grow into an elite offering. Hope and growth pervade the rest of Lemons’ projection. He has some slider feel — Lemons posted breaking-ball spin rates in the 2500 rpm range as an amateur — but it’s inconsistent. His changeup is even further behind. As one would expect for such a large young man, so too is his control, but Lemons is graceful and athletic for his size and should be granted lots of time to work through what will almost assuredly be a long developmental process. He is a high-upside lottery ticket. Murphy is from Illinois so I wouldn't be surprised if they're just taking it slow with him since cold weather kids generally require more development time than their peers from the warm weather states. The only other cold weather HS arms drafted in a similar range as Murphy in 2017 were Landon Leach (Ontario, pick 37, 1 IP in 2018), John Swanda (Iowa, pick 115, 12.2 IP in 2018) & Charlie Neuwiler (New York, pick 150, 15 IP in 2018).
  18. sveumrules
    Hearing we should know by July 31 if the two sides are able to work out a deal.
  19. sveumrules
    Inconsistency is hard to gauge because every team has a different baseline to deviate from. We score 4.37 runs per game compared to 4.77 for the Cubs, so naturally we should have a higher percentage of games with 2 or less runs scored because we score less runs overall. Why just focus on the bust games with 2 or less runs scored? An inconsistent offense will also in theory have a higher percentage of boom games with 6+ runs scored. Chicago has 54 of 75 games so far with 2 or less/6 or more runs scored, 72%. We are at 52 of 77 games so far with 2 or less/6 or more runs scored, 67.5%.
  20. sveumrules
    Hiura was ranked 24th by FanGraphs, 32nd by BPro, 47th by BA & 56th by MLB heading into the season. Diaz was ranked 85th by BPro, 87th by FanGraphs & didn't make the preseason top 100 for BA or MLB. Pretty big difference in value between a consensus top 25-50 guy & a borderline top 100.
  21. sveumrules
    Still have plenty of faith in Brinson to figure it out. He has hit at every level & has plenty of athleticism to make whatever adjustments are needed. He is already cutting down the Ks as the season progresses; 35.2 K% in April, 29.6 K% in May, 25.4 K% in June.
  22. sveumrules
    Even with both performing near the highest end of reasonable expectations (before Thor strained a ligament in his finger) the Mets are a fourth place club both now & in future outlook within their division. At any moment deGrom's currently higher than it will ever be trade value could suffer a similar hit, so sell high since you aren't winning anything anyway. Thor has an extra year of control, is five years younger & currently hurt. Hold.
  23. sveumrules
    Jeff Sullivan with an interesting look at Lorenzo Cain's career best walk rate & how he's accomplishing it over at FanGraphs... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lorenzo-cain-is-still-getting-better/
  24. sveumrules
    There are 21 players with at least 3,000 innings at SS from 2013-16. Miller ranks 18th in DRS (-23) & 16th in UZR (-6.5) in that sample. While he was merely adequate to bad from 2013-15 (2,235 innings, -9 DRS, +0.8 UZR), his metrics tanked in 2016, of the 28 SS with at least 800 innings his DRS of -14 ranked 27th & his UZR of -7.3 ranked 23rd. Miller will have to hit to provide any value as he has literally graded out negative everywhere he's ever played: 2B (1,011 innings, -8 DRS, -8 UZR), 1B (605 innings, -6 DRS, -2.3 UZR), OF (259 innings, -15 DRS, -8.9 UZR) & 3B (22 innings, -1 DRS, -0.7 UZR).
  25. sveumrules
    Yeah, Domingo's defensive numbers this season are definitely out of left (right?) field. Stuff like that really makes me wish that DRS and/or UZR provided some kind of play log or opportunity log so we could have some kind of idea of how much is being credited or deducted with each individual opportunity. For instance I'd love to know how DRS puts Braun at +28 for his career in LF when UZR has him at -23.
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