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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Thanks again for helming this yet again, reilly. Always interesting to see how all the votes play out. We moved some serious depth the last few days which combined with the graduations makes the back end of the list a lot more wide open for sure. 01. Corbin Burnes 02. Keston Hiura 03. Corey Ray 04. Troy Stokes Jr. 05. Tristen Lutz 06. Zack Brown 07. Brice Turang 08. Lucas Erceg 09. Jacob Nottingham 10. Trey Supak 11. Marcos Diplan 12. Trent Grisham 13. Adrian Houser 14. Jacob Gatewood 15. Carlos Rodriguez 16. Payton Henry 17. Cody Ponce 18. Nathan Kirby 19. Braden Webb 20. Caden Lemons 21. Joe Gray Jr. 22. Micah Bello 23. Mario Feliciano 24. Dantel Ramirez 25. Clayton Andrews -
FanGraphs with a ranking of all the prospects moved at the deadline... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ranking-the-prospects-traded-at-the-deadline-2/ Ortiz (12), Carmona (21), Medeiros (41), Lopez (48) & W. Perez (55). Looks like they missed Maverick but they had him at a 45 FV before the season so he'd probably be in the 9-15 range.
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Something else which I'm not sure has been mentioned yet is that as nice of a prospect as Ortiz is, he is also on his third season in AA now & has yet to crack 100 innings in a season.
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Brewers 2B this year: 242/297/362 (75 wRC+) Schoop this year: 244/273/447 (90 wRC+) Schoop rest of season projection: 260/300/464 (105 wRC+) Schoop in 2017: 293/338/503 (121 wRC+)
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Brewers have gotten the third best production in MLB thus far at both 1B & OF. Would love to see that spread to the rest of the roster.
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So like the Tampa Bay Rays are doing? Sergio Romo made his first start as an opener on May 19. Since that date the Rays have the 4th lowest ERA in MLB.
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Dodgerfan.net none too pleased about leaving all those runners on base. You'd think for 200 million bucks they could do a little better than that.
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100 million extra bucks in payroll & the Dodgers still couldn't buy a run there.
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Something else to keep in mind with Harrison vs. Ray is that Monte has the capability to be a plus plus defender in center where Ray's defense in CF is projected as more averagish.
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Back end of the rotation? Who do you have better than him this year besides Chacin?
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Saying someone has been smoke and mirrors for 2/3 of a season is a stretch. He’s having a rough day I am pretty sure advanced stats are not that high on Guerra either. High whip. Doesn't go deep in games. There's 88 pitchers with at least 100 IP so far this year. Guerra is 29th in Runs Allowed based WAR & 40th in FIP based WAR. Smoke & mirrors or not he has provided serious value for this team through this point, even moreso when you consider what was expected from him coming into the season.
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With the continuing rise of strikeouts in the game there are less balls in play than ever, which obviously means less opportunities for fielders to help or hurt their team. Plays at 2B are down almost 20% from just ten years ago. (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/where-defensive-opportunities-have-declined-most/) I for one am happy to see DS & company rolling the dice on new strategies where data suggests the risk is worthwhile.
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Cubs Acquire Cole Hamels from Rangers
sveumrules replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The reason they gave up nothing is because that is Hamels value at this point. It's a no brainer move on their part, though. Their other options aren't any better so why not roll the dice on a name guy having a bad season & hope the change of scenery/pennant race reinvigorates him? The Cubs starters definitely have more recognizable names, but their results haven't lived up to their reputations thus far. Brewers SP: 3.86 ERA/4.35 FIP, Cubs SP: 4.04 ERA/4.76 FIP. Hamels (4.72 ERA/5.20 FIP) should hopefully fit right in. -
The individuals responsible for making the draft picks have changed since Kodi was selected, if that is any consolation.
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Hate to see Kodi go, but Joakim has been the 12 best reliever in MLB since the start of last season per FanGraphs. 10 million is not very expensive at all for that kind of production.
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That's the key quote right there. My guess is they see Burnes as a big help to the pen and would like to keep him there if they can't improve the starting 5. If, in one week, our starting rotation is the same as it is today ... we can start to question that decision. I would be willing to bet good money our rotation will have an additional piece or 2 by the end of the weekend. The whole time that Woodruff & Wilkerson are preparing for any starts they may potentially have (which would require someone getting hurt, us not trading for someone & neither Davies nor Nelson coming back at all), Burnes will be in the bullpen helping the Major League team win games in a playoff race. If he was staying stretched out to be our 6th starter he would be in Colo Springs & the MLB bullpen would be weakened. Even if someone does get hurt, we don't trade for anyone & neither Davies nor Nelson come back it's not like Woodruff is a terrible option for a 6th starter.
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^^^ Exactly. Six of the top eleven pitchers in Win Probability Added so far this season are relievers. It's not just the top end of the WPA leaderboard either, scroll through & you'll see relievers mingling side by side with starters in terms of actual impact on wins & losses (as opposed to context neutral WAR). Sure, a true ace is still the most valuable commodity in baseball. But as we know there's maybe a half dozen of them in the game at any given time. Meanwhile guys like Blake Treinen, Lou Trivino, Seranthony Dominguez, Yoshihisa Hirano & Kirby Yates (plus Hader, Jeffress & hopefully Burnes for the rest of this summer) can have a similar impact by being employed consistently in high leverage situations. Comparing Burnes & Peralta's WPA totals this season illustrates just how impactful a carefully deployed reliever can be. In his 7 starts & 37 innings Peralta has a WPA of 0.39. In his 3 relief appearances & 6 innings Burnes has a WPA of 0.45.
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The difference is when the farm was stacked circa 2005-2006 the Major League club was mostly bereft of talent. Now we have a Major League roster that has enough controllable assets that we've been solidly in contention (well ahead of schedule, at that) for the last two seasons plus a farm that is still plenty deep despite only having a couple two tree top end prospects at the moment.
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I have no idea what point is trying to be made here. The point I was going for is that when Stearns has had opportunities to surrender future long term assets in exchange for a short term upgrade, he has not done so. Given that past history I don't see why there is any fear or expectation of him doing so now.
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When Williams entered the game we were already trailing 6-2. After which batter would you have pulled Williams & which pitcher would you have gone to if you were managing to win the game?
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Yes, Doug Melvin made those trades. What future assets has Stearns gambled in hopes of making a playoff appearance?
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You think a playoff appearance is worth gambling the future on. What future assets have been gambled in hopes of making a playoff appearance?
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The first thing you listed is probably my biggest issue with this. You want to get at least 150 innings out of Burnes this year. Burnes had 145 innings in 2017. Even if he pitches less innings this year he should be fine for 175-180 in 2019. Only 15 pitchers hit 200 IP in 2017 & I'd imagine less will hit that number this year. I'd guess the Brewers internal projections don't have many pitchers reaching that threshold.
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Coming into this season Burnes had never pitched above AA, Woodruff had a small MLB sample with mixed results & Suter had a larger (though still small) MLB sample with good results. Suter also had superior AAA results compared to Woodruff. I would imagine this is why Suter had first crack at a rotation spot to begin the season, because he had earned it by virtue of his performance. Despite his lack of stuff, we are still 9-9 in games started by Suter this season. In 5 of those losses we scored 2 runs or less, so kinda hard to pin the blame on Suter for those. Not too bad for what is ostensibly your 5th starter.
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And Brandon Woodruff too.. They also did it with Tyler Thornburg and Wily Peralta a few years ago. Those are five of the top pitching prospects they’ve had over the past decade. Woodruff has relieved 7 games this year at the MLB level on an as needed basis. He's started 14 games between AAA/MLB. I'd say he's still being developed primarily as a starter. The "they" that did it with Thornburg & Peralta a few years ago are no longer here so I guess I don't see how that's relevant to Burnes & any decisions on his usage.
