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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Braun has driven in 20.91% of possible runners this season, 7th of 209 batters who have come to the plate with at least 100 runners on base. Bryant is at 12.88%, 140th in the same sample. Bryant came up in 2015. In that time frame 110 batters have come to the plate with at least 1,000 runners on base. Bryant has driven in 14.31% of runners, 82nd in the sample. Despite being a much worse hitter, Braun is at 17.42%, 8th in the same sample. It isn't all random. Over large samples different players display different skill at driving runners in. So far Bryant's ability to convert base runners to runs scored hasn't lived up to his context neutral marks. Again, I'm not trying to say Braun is better than Bryant. Just that making determinations based solely on context neutral data leaves out quite a bit of information in a context dependent game. If you aren't buying on the Mariners does that mean you similarly aren't buying on the Brewers as a good team because of their insane record in one run games?
  2. sveumrules
    Domingo made a pretty nice play in RF tonight. Domingo is at +7 DRS & +2.9 UZR this season, so the metrics have seen him as a positive in the field to this point.
  3. sveumrules
    Plush is pretty anti Braun, but I do find it funny that Braun has as many HRs and more RBIs than Bryant in about 50 or so at bats. Which would mean a lot more if HR or RBI were useful stats for judging a player. Bryant has an .885 OPS, 139 wRC+ and 2.2 WAR. Braun has a .770, 101 and 0.6. Bryant has been an all star level player and Braun has been a little below average. Bryant has the edge in context neutral stats & is clearly the better player, but Braun has done more in the batters box to help his team win thus far this season with a Win Probability Added of 0.57 compared to 0.12 for Bryant.
  4. sveumrules
    Yuni's dWAR on BRef is positive because it includes his SS positional adjustment (+8) & fielding (-3) totals. Same thing at FG though the math is slightly different as they had him at +6.6 positional & -6.7 fielding. After posting by far the worst fielding marks (-55 DRS, -39 UZR) at SS from 2008-10, his 2011 ratings are actually pretty pedestrian.
  5. sveumrules
    I always though a realistic comparison for what Arcia is capable of would be something like Francisco Lindor's 2016 season before he added power to his game, 301/358/435. Obviously we're a long ways from there now, but I do believe the skills are still there if he can iron out his stance/approach. Interestingly, Arcia's lone good month of his career at the plate (June 2017) came in at 326/370/478 so he has already shown he can do it, albeit briefly.
  6. sveumrules
    Pretty sure BRef considers the same 8 batters hitting in a different order as a different lineup. With pitchers included Brewers are at 64, 150, 148 the last three years compared to 60, 157 & 149 for the Cubs.
  7. sveumrules
    The Cubs have used 56 different lineups this year compared to 58 for the Brewers. In 2017 the Cubs used 143 different lineups compared to 123 for the Brewers. In 2016 the Cubs used 130 different lineups compared to 123 for the Brewers.
  8. sveumrules
    The Brewers might be bad at developing hitters, though I'd imagine there has been some turnover since Alcides was coming up through the system. Another possibility is that neither Escobar nor Arcia were ever all that great of hitters to begin with & their lofty BA rankings (Alcides #12 in 2010, Arcia #8 in 2016) were more about their defensive certainty mixed with some hope for offensive potential. Alcides minor league batting... 2006 A+: 386 PA 70 wRC+ 2007 A+: 283 PA 102 wRC+ 2007 AA: 245 PA 78 wRC+ 2008 AA: 597 PA 114 wRC+ 2009 AAA: 487 PA 102 wRC+ Orlando minor league batting... 2013 A: 486 PA 84 wRC+ 2014 A+: 546 PA 113 wRC+ 2015 AA: 552 PA 126 wRC+ 2016 AAA: 440 PA 91 wRC+ I don't think it's necessarily surprising that two lithe shortstops with those minor league numbers have ended up as around 70 wRC+ MLB hitters. For full context there have been 622 batters from 2008 (when Alcides debuted) through now to record at least 900 PA (Orlando currently has 940). The Escobar/Arcia shared wRC+ of 71 ranks tied for 588th on the list.
  9. sveumrules
    Just to add a little more context, there are six teams currently outperforming their FIP by more than a quarter of a run. I've listed them with their DRS, UZR & efficiency rankings noted... Cubs (3.18 ERA 4.00 FIP -0.82) 3rd/2nd/1st DBacks (3.43 ERA 3.92 FIP -0.49) 2nd/5th/7th Brewers (3.53 ERA 4.00 FIP -0.47) 1st/3rd/2nd Oakland (3.87 ERA 4.29 FIP -0.42) 12th/6th/3rd Braves (3.68 ERA 4.05 FIP -0.37) 8th/8th/9th Angels (3.65 ERA 4.02 FIP -0.37) 5th/4th/15th
  10. sveumrules
    Cubs currently rank 3rd in DRS, 2nd in UZR & 1st in defensive efficiency converting 73.9% of all batted balls into outs, so excellent team defense is definitely a contributing factor.
  11. sveumrules
    Great article about Hurricane Iribarren over at The Hardball Times... https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/away-from-the-diamond It mentions that more than one organization is interested in bringing him into player development once he hangs up the cleats.
  12. sveumrules
    So was Coles a good hitting coach when Domingo raised his home run rate from 1 per 22.36 ABs in 2016 to 1 per 17.5 ABs in 2017 & has just started to suck this year? You focus a lot of words on the perceived negative impact Coles has had, but never once mention Shaw or Aguilar, two hitters who have wildly exceeded expectations since their arrival. Personally I think the role of a hitting coach is hugely overstated & that we as fans don't have nearly enough information at our disposal to make an informed decision either way. The Milwaukee Brewers are not the laughing stock of Major League Baseball.
  13. sveumrules
    Miller's best offensive season was 2016 when he set career bests in both PAs (601) & wRC+ (111). Fangraphs valued that offensive contribution at 8 runs. According to DRS, Arcia has already saved 10 runs with his glove this season. Of course offensive metrics are much more reliable than defensive metrics (UZR only has Arcia saving 4 runs so far for instance), but it's very possible that Arcia's defense provides just as much if not more more value than Miller's bat. At that point it comes down, to what subtracts more value? As bad as Miller has graded out at SS defensively, I think Arcia's offense right now is worse. If Stearns & company think Miller is playable at SS, I'm fine with him getting time there. Can always use Arcia as a defensive replacement late in the game if needed.
  14. sveumrules
    I think I'd prefer deGrom to Thor myself. Given Thor is younger, cheaper, has one more year of team control & has the higher upside he should likely command the higher return of the two. The only things deGrom has the edge in are actual performance & health. But if he can be obtained for less since he costs more, has one less year of team control & is older then sign me up. Mets could get a haul by cashing in when they're both healthy/dealing & take major steps toward rebuilding for the future, but they'll probably hold on to both of them just so they can finish 4th in the division.
  15. sveumrules
    Saladino (only of the 5 to have a single positive grade, +3 DRS) Sogard (has gotten SS innings over both Villar & Hernan last two seasons) Villar (2,200+ below average SS innings) Miller (3,000+ even worse SS innings) Perez (105 career MLB innings at SS)
  16. sveumrules
    Last time Miller played SS was 854 innings with TB in 2016. He graded out at -14 DRS/-7.3 UZR. Career marks are -23 DRS/-6.5 UZR in 3089 innings at SS from 2013-16.
  17. sveumrules
    Because oftentimes players that are naturally talented get by on their athletic gifts & never really have to learn the nuances of the game. Players that are less naturally talented are forced to learn the nuances of the game in order to have any chance at all.
  18. sveumrules
    There are 81 catchers on the Stat Corner framing leaderboard. Pina comes in at 71st. There are 93 catchers on the Baseball Prospectus framing leaderboard. Pina comes in at 53rd. There are 27 catchers that have caught at least 250 innings, Pina is 23rd in Defensive Runs Saved, though he has been good in both the passed ball (7th) & wild pitches category (4th). He also ranks 8th in caught stealing % among catchers with comparable attempts.
  19. sveumrules
    FanGraphs has DRS & UZR going back to 2002. From then until 2017 there have been 2,402 individual player seasons that qualified for the batting title. The lowest wRC+ mark for someone that ended up with a positive WAR in that time frame was (wait for it) Alcides Escobar in 2013, who ended up with 0.9 WAR despite his 49 wRC+. I did find a handful of shortstop seasons that were around league average or better in terms of WAR despite limited offensive production over that timeframe, so there is at least a template for Orlando being a decent player even if he never realizes his full potential at the plate. 2005 Orlando Cabrera 80 wRC+, 3.0 WAR 2006 Adam Everett: 62 wRC+, 2.2 WAR 2007 Omar Vizquel: 60 wRC+, 2.0 WAR 2008 Orlando Cabrera: 85 wRC+, 3.3 WAR 2012 JJ Hardy, 78 wRC+, 2.3 WAR 2015 Andrelton Simmons: 81 wRC+, 3.1 WAR 2016 Freddy Galvis, 73 wRC+, 2.3 WAR 2016 Jose Iglesias, 72 wRC+, 2.0 WAR
  20. sveumrules
    This. Stearns has stated numerous times he is trying to build an organization which can remain perpetually competitive. All indications are that he isn't thinking in terms of any limited time frame window. I'd imagine how aggressive Stearns & company will be at the deadline will mostly depend on how the market plays out. They will determine what they believe to be fair prices for available players they think can help the team & go from there. I think that Stearns has enough confidence in where the organization currently stands that he will not feel any pressure to make a move unless it makes sense both in the now & for the future.
  21. sveumrules
    Arcia had a 72 wRC+ in 930 career PAs coming into the day & outside of June of last year (326/370/478 in 100 PA) he hasn't really ever hit at all. The defense is obviously legit, but he clearly needs an overhaul in the box. Granted they both had more success at the plate than Arcia has had thus far, but recent ex-Brewers Jean Segura (65 wRC+ in 1,141 PAs with MKE from 2014-15, 122 wRC+ in 1,532 PAs since) & Scooter Gennett (86 wRC+ in 933 PAs with MKE from 2015-16, 135 wRC+ in 748 PAs since) make me think it's probably too early too abandon all hope for Orlando. Or maybe he needs a change of scenery.
  22. sveumrules
    Cool idea, Jimbo. In the 14 games since your original post we have... Braun 2-0 | Ji-man 1-0 | Yelich 1-0 | Shaw 1-0 | Guerra 1-0 | Jhoulys 1-0 | Domingo 1-1 | Davies 0-2 | Albies 0-2 | Aguilar 0-1 Which brings the season totals to... Shaw 4.5-1 Chacin 4-1 Braun 4-2 Hader 3-0 Guerra 3-1 Anderson 3-1 Yelich 3-2 Jeffress 2-0 Aguilar 2-1 Albers 2-3 Davies. 1.5-4 Arcia 1-0 Miley 1-0 Peralta 1-0 Ji-man. 1-0 Cain 1-1 Suter 1-1 Santana. 1-2 Barnes 0-1 Hoover 0-1 Logan 0-1 Drake 0-2 Starters 13.5-7 Offense 17.5-9 Relievers 8-9
  23. sveumrules
    Sogard has started 16 of 64 games so far this season, so all those starts have amounted to 25% of our games. The Brewers went 10-6 in those games so I don't think that makes anyone look foolish. Um, he was 5 for 62 in those games and that includes a 3 for 5. That is definition of foolish. If CC knew he was going to go 5 for 62 in those games, it would definitely would have been foolish. Unfortunately there is no way to obtain that foreknowledge. As terrible as Sogard was in those starts, it was not detrimental to the team. At the end of the day that's all that matters.
  24. sveumrules
    Sogard has started 16 of 64 games so far this season, so all those starts have amounted to 25% of our games. The Brewers went 10-6 in those games so I don't think that makes anyone look foolish.
  25. sveumrules
    The Brewers could offer up a headline duo of Hiura & Burnes. Who ranked 24 & 35 on the FanGraphs preseason list, both with a future value of 55, then fill out their package with a variety of interesting guys. Of teams currently in contention you've got BOS, SF, ARI, SEA & CHI who probably can't beat our offer. HOU, CLE, ATL, PHI, STL & WAS could all probably match or beat our offer but appear to have bigger needs than SP or also play in the NL East with NYM which sometimes complicates big deals. That leaves NYY, LAD, LAA & COL as teams who prolly could match/beat our offer with a need for SP.
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