sveumrules

Tim Tebow doesn't really bother me at all, but then again I NEVER watch ESPN so I haven't had him incessantly shoved down my throat for years either. Any independent league team would be crazy not to sign him for the attendance/publicity boost alone. If he does well there maybe a team would give him a shot in affiliated ball like they did Chris Colabello or Junior Guerra or Aaron Wilkerson or Balbino Fuenmayor or any of the countless others who have made the jump from indy ball to affiliated ball. I don't seem to remember this much hullabaloo when Tracy McGrady signed with the Sugar Land Skeeters.

Looks like Prince has 4/96 left after this year. 24 million of that is paid by Detroit from the Kinsler trade. I also saw that TEX has an insurance policy which pays 50% of Fielder's salary in the event of a long term injury. I'm guessing that's 50% of the 18 million they owe him per year, not the 24 million total salary. Assuming it is based on the 18 million number it looks like the remaining money owed to Fielder is pretty evenly split between DET (24 million), TEX (36 million) & insurance (36 million).

If this indeed the end for Prince it's pretty interesting that he and his dad both finish with exactly 319 career home runs, though Prince needed an extra 900 plate appearances to get there. The Prince/Braun combo was together for 5 years (2007-11) with both putting up a 147 wRC+ in that time, 285/399/553 for Prince & 312/371/563 for Braun. By batting runs they were 3rd & 5th during the time frame with only Pujols & Miggy ahead of them and Holliday in between. As much as I enjoyed watching Prince hit a baseball I think I enjoyed watching him field and run the bases even more.

I think the best hope for Arcia out of the current crop of SS prospects is Lindor, who has outhit his minor league track record since arriving in the majors. Maybe Orlando can do the same, but it's pretty rare for a player to come up and immediately hit better in the bigs than he did on the way up. But from a #1 prospect, I would expect more. I think this is where things like prospect rankings can get dangerous. Sure Correa, Seager, Bogaerts & Arcia all were highly ranked SS prospects, but the first three achieved that ranking by consistently hitting at a high level throughout their minor league careers while Orlando got there on the strength of one breakout season, which still would have been considered a down year for any of the other three.

Is he going to be better than Seager? Correa? Lindor, Bogaerts, Diaz, Russell, either Crawford? No. No. No, no, no, maybe, no (Brandon), maybe (JP). If people are thinking that Arcia is going to hit anything like Seager or Correa they are definitely setting the bar too high. If Orlando can hit around 270/320/380 with upper tier defense & above average baserunning there is still plenty of value there.

I still think hiring Macha was Melvin's biggest mistake. Yost was the ultimate players' manager and Macha was on the opposite end of that spectrum. Will forever be curious how things might have played out if they just kept Sveum. Then again the pitching was so bad it might have all been a moot point anyway. In regards to Villar he successfully stole 3rd with 2 outs in the bottom of the 5th.

Broxton has started 9 of 12 games since getting called back up on July 26 & is hitting 387/500/742 over that span. While I don't think he'll continue to hit like 1927 vintage Lou Gehrig I see no reason not to give Keon another 50 starts in CF the rest of the way.

Villar has a -12 UZR this year, but his DRS is +2 so there is some disagreement among the metrics in the 2016 sample. From the eye test I would say Villar is average defensively at best and very likely below average compared to other MLB SS. As a switch hitter who can play 2B, 3B, SS and maybe even the OF in a pinch I think ideally he is a super sub on a contending team or a starter on a bad team, like now.

50 innings in the minors & 80 in the majors for Villar at 3B.

The Escobar deal is pretty club friendly. If the Royals exercise their option next year the total outlay is only 6 years & 21.75 million. Relative peanuts compared to the 8/120 for Andrus or 7/58 for Simmons. I think ultimately Escobar is the most realistic comp for Arcia. Glove first SS, with questions about the bat. Arcia has run higher BB% & ISOs than Alcides did in the minors so I'd probably set my median projection around 270/320/380 compared to a career line of 260/300/340 for Alcides.

I seem to be in the minority, but I'm fine with this move. I totally get the argument about service time, but if he doesn't perform it's pretty easy to justify optioning him back down to buy that service time back. Right there with you. It's not like calling him up now guarantees that he will be a FA after 2022. If he doesn't hold his own it makes it that much easier to start him next year in AAA again and call him up late enough to get that extra year of control for 2023. If he does hold his own it's a moot point because in that case he clearly would deserve to be up. I'd love to call every single prospect up the day after the super two deadline in any given year but each case is unique. In this case I think Orlando has demonstrated enough in the minors to earn his call and hopefully get his feet wet in anticipation of a full season in 2017.

I'm fine with the timing on this. If he struggles you have justification to keep him down to start next year & maybe try to game an extra year. If he holds his own then clearly he deserves to be up. Think this pushes Hernan back to the OF for most of his playing time, hopefully at the expense of Niewenhuis. Would like to give Keon a couple months of solid PAs.

Villar 5 Scooter 4 Braun 7 Carter 3 Hernan 9 Keon 8 Orlando 6 Maldy 2

Love this deal. High upside arm with good results in the low minors plus an MLB ready catcher who probably would be in his 3rd MLB season right now if he wasn't blocked by Posey. Thanks for everything, Fresh Prince with an assist to DM for acquiring & subsequently dealing Nori Aoki.

I agree that Davis has impressive power, whether he is worth more or less than the return we got is probably a little too soon to determine though. Even though he doesn't add much else I'd say anybody drafted in the 7th round that can provide 1.5ish WAR four years in a row and carry a top 10 ISO has clearly been a success. In regards to CF, agree that Wren should be up post deadline & am eagerly awaiting reading all the freak out posts when we give Gomez the Gagne contract this offseason.

All the OPS number prove is that Greenberg (on a per plate appearance basis) was a better hitter than Ichiro, a point I'll readily concede. They do not prove he was a better player. Mark McGwire is on that same OPS list, would you consider him a better baseball player than Ichiro? But Ichiro played 1,047 more games! Can't you get that? I do get that. Ichiro is one of the most durable players in baseball history and that is another reason why I rate him so highly on my list.

If this package was going out for 2 1/2 years of Andrew Miller I'd think it was still slightly in the Yankees favor, but for 1/2 a season of Chapman? Well done, Ca$hman. Then again, if the Cubs break the drought and Chapman strikes out the last batter of the WS with a 105 MPH heater it will certainly all be more than worth it.

I place a very high value on defense, and value, though not as high, on base stealing. If a great player is a base stealer, too, that enhances their value. There is more to baserunning than just stolen base frequency/success, though. Ichiro has taken 622 chances (506 SB/116 CS) to affect the game via stolen base in his MLB career. But he's been on base over 3,500 times with a chance to impact the game, by going first to third on a single or first to home on a double or second to home on a single or third to home on a fly ball & he does so with historic success, especially compared with slow footed slugger types. There is also avoidance of double plays, another area where Ichiro is an all time great. How is Ichiro an all-time great defender? I'd have him as the 2nd best defensive RFer of all time behind Clemente. His arm is the stuff of legend and he's never lacked for range by either the eye test or metrics. He also won ten straight gold gloves, for whatever that is worth. How and the heck can you put Shoeless Joe Jackson, the man with the third highest batting average in history, in the third tier? He hit .356 with a 170 career OPS +. And Hank Greenberg in your third tier....????I'm sorry, but that's ridiculous. For me there is a pretty good argument for anyone in my 30-75 range to fall into the last 20 or so spots of the top 50. I'd have probably have Ichiro in the 40-50 range & Greenberg/Shoeless in the 51-55 range, so it's really a marginal difference either way but for me I give the slight edge to Ichiro for having a longer MLB (& professional) career than either player and for not being a bat only player as neither Greenberg or Shoeless provided significant positive value on the bases or in the field. If you were scouting Ichiro's career you're looking at an 80 hitter, runner, fielder and thrower with 40 power. And he maximized those tools over a 17 year professional peak in the most competitive league he was allowed to play in at any given time. For me that's enough to be a top 50 position player of all time, if it's not enough for you I understand and take no umbrage with that opinion.

Stache, what value do you place on defense & baserunning? By all measures Ichiro is an all time great in both categories. Gary Sheffield has a 140 career OPS+ but I take Ichiro ahead of him all day because he more than makes up for the OPS differential by providing elite positive value on the bases & in the field. Or think of Prince Fielder. In 2007 he hit 50 bombs and had a wRC+ of 153. But once his negative baserunning & fielding were accounted for he tallied 4.7 fWAR. Ichiro had a pretty typical season with a bunch of singles only good for a 122 wRC+ but with the positive value he provided on the bases & in the field he ended up with 6.1 fWAR. The same concepts apply in the historical context as well. & yes, I was taking top 50 players to mean top 50 position players. Though I counted only 41 position players on your list & 8 more in your subsequent post so maybe you're saving 50 for Mr. Suzuki after all?

Yeah; Speaker, Ott & DiMaggio probably all belong in that inner circle too, maybe even Rose though he's obviously not a HOFer. My second twenty five would probably break down as C: Piazza, IRod. 1B: Pujols, Big Hurt. 2B: Collins, Lajoie, Alomar 3B: Mathews, Boggs, Molitor, Chipper. SS: Pop Lloyd, Ozzie, Larkin. LF: Yaz, Raines. CF: Speaker, DiMaggio, Charleston, Griffey. RF: Ott, Arlett, Kaline, Ichiro. UTIL: Rose. The 50-75 group for me would probably be C: Campy, Fisk, Carter. 1B: Greenberg, McCovey, Stargell, Bagwell, Miggy. 2B: Gehringer, Carew. 3B: Dick Allen. SS: Appling, Arky, Banks, Yount, Jeter. LF: Shoeless, Simmons, Manny. CF: Andruw. RF: Reggie, Gwynn, Walker. DH: Edgar, Ortiz.

If you frame Ichiro by his two weakest skills (OPS, position) and leave out his three biggest attributes (playing time, defense & baserunning) it's hard to see the argument. But let's start with OPS, or rather wRC+ because it'a little more well rounded & it's what FG has on their multi season leaderboards. During his 10 year peak from 2001-10 Ichiro had a 115 wRC+, leaving him in a tie for 110th in MLB during the time. For reference, Russell Branyan had a 114 wRC+ (arrived at in the complete opposite fashion of course) during the same stretch. Not necessarily all that impressive. However, as mentioned earlier Ichiro came to the plate over 350 times more than the next closest batter over that stretch, good for an MLB best 225 replacement runs. Combine that with his rate line & FG credits him with 142 batting runs, good for 41st during the decade. Add in his baserunning value, pegged at an MLB best 75 runs and his total offensive contribution comes in at 217 runs, good for the 21st best mark in MLB. And while he was a RF (-57 run positional adjustment), he was an excellent one (+125 runs saved, 3rd in MLB among all players) for an overall positive defensive contribution. Add it all up; batting, baserunning, position, fielding and playing time, & the corner outfielder with a 775 OPS comes in 4th in WAR for the decade behind Pujols, ARod and hilariously enough Bonds who only played six of the ten seasons. For me there are about 25 inner circle Hall of Fame players. C: Gibson, Berra, Bench. 1B: Gehrig, Foxx, Musial. 2B: Hornsby, Robinson, Morgan. 3B: Brooks, Schmidt, Brett. SS: Honus, Ripken, ARod. LF: Williams, Rickey, Bonds. CF: Cobb, Mantle, Mays. RF: Ruth, Aaron, Robinson, Clemente. A case could easily be made for about 50 different guys to fill the next 25 spots. With a borderline case on MLB numbers alone plus the seven seasons of dominance in Japan, Ichiro is an easy "hai" for me.

Oh, come on. The reason Ichiro got over 200 hits in ten straight seasons is because he averaged 734 plate appearances a season between 2001 and 2010. And, because he walks so little, he averaged a whopping 685 at bats each season. So a player gets knocked for being the best leadoff hitter in MLB for a decade straight? From 2001-10 Ichiro tallied 7,339 plate appearances with the next closest being Jeter over 350 PAs behind at 6,983. If anything I give Ichiro a slight bump for his remarkable consistency. If Tony Gwynn had averaged even 650 at bats between 1984 and 1997, he'd have hit for 200 + in fourteen straight seasons. And, unlike Ichiro's two batting titles (which is still good, mind you), Gwynn won eight titles. And, his offensive production was 35% above Major League average, while Ichiro's was merely 17% (135 OPS + vs 117 OPS I'm happy you bring up Gwynn because he is another of my all time favorites, but I think put Ichiro ahead of him on my top 50. In regards to PAs there are essentially three reasons Gwynn didn't match Ichiro; he walked more, he batted 3rd most of his career and he got hurt. I'll readily concede that Gwynn is a superior hitter to Ichiro. Ichiro is the superior defender and baserunner, though. Which is reflected in their eerily similar career fWARs of 58.2 & 65.0 and their peak WAR7s of 43.8 & 41.1. And stop combining his Japanese numbers and Major League numbers. Just...stop. They're completely irrelevant. If we are talking about the 50 best players ever I believe they are completely relevant. Would you place Josh Gibson on your top 50 list? He doesn't have the statistical record to support it, but any such list would clearly be incomplete without him and possibly Pop Lloyd & Oscar Charleston as well, not to mention serious consideration for Buzz Arltett who was the Babe Ruth of the PCL & put up a 138 OPS+ in his lone major league season at age 32. But back to Ichiro. He debuted in MLB at age 27 winning the batting/stolen base crowns en route to a 6.0 fWAR season, his team shocked baseball by winning a record 116 games and was named AL ROY/MVP. Prior to that he had put up seven straight monster seasons with a career Japanese line of 353/421/522, compared to 350/381/457 in his 2001 debut & a career best of 372/414/455 in 2004. Unless your top 50 players list is a straight WAR or OPS+ leaderboard it involves some amount of opinion, and it is my opinion based on the strength of his debut & record prior to arrival that had he been able to come to MLB four or five years earlier after two to three years of demonstrated success in Japan he could easily have another 20 WAR to his name. The bottom line is that Ichiro will be a Hall of Famer. He'll get his 3,000 hits, though he probably should have been out of the Majors after last year's 57 OPS +. But is he one of the top 50 players in Major League history? Nope. Not even close, really. And that's not my "opinion". The statement is supported by statistical analysis. That analysis, against the immortals of the game, shows that Ichiro, though a great pure hitter, brought very little to the table as an offensive performer. He just doesn't measure up. Is Ichiro a top 50 hitter in MLB history? Of course not. But there is more to baseball than hitting & Ichiro gets a huge bump for being one of the better baserunners & defenders in baseball history. I believe the original statement which started the thread in this direction came form nate82, "Definitely a top 50 player. Where in the top 50 I am not sure but he is a sure top 50 player in MLB history." For me he is easily a top 50 baseball player of all time and the starting RF & nine hitter (of course Rickey leads off) on my "Own Two Eyes" team. Even if you want to limit the scope to just the top 50 players in MLB history I think there's a strong case to be made for him at the back end of the list, which is still an opinion no matter how much statistical analysis you have used in arriving at yours.

I think the only players with 4,000 professional hits are Rose, Ichiro, Cobb, Aaron, Musial and Julio Franco if I'm not mistaken. Based on just his stats in the US Ichiro might not be a "top 50 player all time" (which no matter how many numbers you use to make your list, it is still just your opinion), but including his performance record in Japan plus extra credit for being the first Japanese position player to experience success in America I'd probably place him on the back end of my personal top 50 list. Here's something that isn't an opinion, Ichiro is the only player in MLB history to get 200 hits in ten consecutive seasons. One of one.

You're missing the point. The Brewers had failed thinking at the seventh pick in the draft and were unable to draft a player that made an impact. It doesn't matter that he was traded. The question is that, at the time of the draft, did the Brewers identify a talent that made an impact as a player, whether here or anywhere. They drafted a kid who hit .240 as a college junior and then jumped on him after a nice senior season. The Brewers failed to draft an impact player, at seventh overall. Every team in MLB outside of the Rays (Price @ #1), Giants (Bumgarner @ #10) and Braves (Heyward @ #14) failed to draft an impact player in the first round of the 2007 draft. If the baseline for first round draft pick success is acquisition of an impact player, most teams fail with their first round pick every year. Then again, as others have pointed out we did actually acquire a very impactful player via that pick, so I would say overall it would have to be judged a success.

He has said (who knows how seriously) that he wants to play until he's 50. Will be curious to see if the Marlins pick up their 2 million option on him for next year, you'd think with the way he's played so far this year it'd be pretty automatic. Since he loves to pitch so much I say we throw him an offer if he hits FA again to serve the Brooks Kieschnick role. 5th OF/PH/mop up pitcher.