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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Hernan is at 1.3 fWAR in 330 PAs so far this year. That projects to a league average player over a full season. If that is one of your starters, meh. If that is your super sub that can play all over the diamond it's a little more exciting.
  2. sveumrules
    Pretty sure the transition was late enough in the winter/spring that the Brewers didn't have enough time to order jerseys so they just used Seattle jerseys with the "Seattle/Pilots" lettering removed & replaced with "Milwaukee/Brewers".
  3. sveumrules
    Puig is younger, cheaper and probably has a higher upside but at this point I'd rather just keep Braun. For all the talk about Ryan's injury issues he's got over 1,000 PA the last two years compared to just over 600 for Yasiel, plus another 100 in the minors. Braun's also easily outperforming Puig the last two years with a 133 wRC+ & 6 fWAR vs. a 104 wRC+ & 2 fWAR. Throw in whatever marginal value Braun provides as a "veteran leader" compared to Puig's reputation as a disruptive malcontent & LA would have to include at least one prospect of some intrigue before I'd consider a swap.
  4. sveumrules
    The Cubs traded their number one prospect for Aroldis Chapman despite him doing something far worse than drunk driving. Josh Hamilton signed a 5/125 contract with a much longer history with much more dangerous substances than anything JJ has been popped for. Shin Soo Choo signed for 7/130 after his drunk driving arrest. Sure, if this had happened on July 15 JJ isn't getting dealt. Now let's imagine Lucroy takes a foul ball off the mask tomorrow & misses the rest of the year with a concussion. Does that mean we dodged a bullet by trading him because something happened after the trade that maybe could have happened (but ultimately didn't) before the trade?
  5. sveumrules
    Dodged a serious bullet how? Miguel Cabrera got arrested for drunk driving before the 2011 season and since then he has been named to 6 All Star teams, voted the recipient of 2 MVP awards and became the first Triple Crown winner in 45 years. How has Gallardo's career been negatively impacted by his 2013 DD incident? I'm guessing there is no meaningful correlation between driving drunk and on field performance.
  6. sveumrules
    Agree that Lindor is probably close to the highest realistic outcome for Arcia. Francisco is at 310/353/462 for his MLB career which is eerily similar to Orlando's line of 307/347/453 during his breakout 2015 at Biloxi. Their career minor league lines are pretty close too, 279/354/384 vs. 282/339/404.
  7. sveumrules
    I saw him pitch in Montana last summer & wasn't all that impressed. Then again one of the bombs he gave up was to Isan Diaz so maybe I should cut him a little slack.
  8. sveumrules
    Looking back at past #5 picks is in no way predictive of what kind of player Ray will be, the only conclusion to be drawn from such an exercise is that it's probably best to wait and see what happens before making any definitive judgements. Yet, the fact that he was the #5 overall pick (& an advanced college bat at that) will be brought up relative to his performance & expectations thereof for the rest of his minor (& hopefully major) league career(s).
  9. sveumrules
    The odds of Ray being a slow developer and then trickling up to the majors at age 26 and then being a standout are slim to none. If he's a slow developer, you're looking at a mediocre player. That's not what we drafted at fifth overall. We want our Andrew Benintendi. We have very little idea what we drafted at fifth overall as it's far too early to say. No number 5 pick has made it to the majors from the 2011-15 drafts as of yet. If you rewind further you've got... 2010: Drew Pomeranz, 2009 Matt Hobgood (never made MLB), 2008: Buster Posey, 2007: Matt Wieters, 2006: Brandon Morrow, 2005: Ryan Braun, 2004: Mark Rogers, 2003: Chris Lubanski (never made MLB), 2002: Clint Everts (never made MLB), 2001: Mark Teixeira, 2000: Justin Wayne. Based on how recent #5 picks have turned out I would expect Ray to never make the majors, be an MVP caliber player or anything in between. I'm sure plenty of Mariners fans thought there was no way they drafted a mediocre player when they selected advanced college bat Dustin Ackley at #2 overall in 2009, but we know now seven years later that is exactly what they did.
  10. sveumrules
    Just DFA Middlebrooks already. The guy lends flesh & blood to the theoretical concept of a replacement player. 0.7 fWAR in 1,195 career PAs. -1.2 fWAR over his last four seasons/909 PAs. A 107 wRC+ as a 27 year old in AAA for the 6th time.
  11. sveumrules
    So you reward BBs more than detrimenting Ks? I do not believe the number of Ks a player has impacts their batting runs total at all. Using 2015 numbers from fangraphs... Arenado | 665 PAs | 118 wRC+ | 16.5 K% | 14.1 Batting Runs Eaton | 689 PAs | 118 wRC+ | 19.0 K% | 14.6 Batting Runs Betts | 654 PAs | 119 wRC+ | 12.5 K% | 14.2 Batting Runs Just seems beyond wrong a 42HR-130RBI .287BA hitter is worth just 17runs more than avg. This is where the Coors factor comes into play. Arenado had a .371 wOBA in 2015 which amounts to a 118 wRC+ with half of his games at Coors. For reference, Charlie Blackmon had a .345 wOBA in 2015 which was good for a league average 100 wRC+. Now compare those numbers to players with the same wOBAs that played in less extreme environs. There were five players other than Arenado with wOBAs between .370 & .372, their wRC+ marks ranged from 132 to 139 compared to Arenado's 118. There were five players other than Blackmon that had wOBAs from .343 to .347, their wRC+ marks ranged from 118 to 123 compared to Blackmon's 100. Looks like Colorado players are docked about 15-20% of their raw offensive totals for the benefit of playing half their games at Coors.
  12. sveumrules
    Lots of assumptions being made here... Domingo is 100% healthy. CC has 100% autonomy filling out the lineup card. Looks to me like they are platooning him with Kirk since he got back to the bigs. Maybe trying to build confidence against LHP before giving him more regular PT similar to what they did with Keon when he came back up most recently?
  13. sveumrules
    Thornburg has been great this year but I don't think his value will be in any way comparable to Miller even with another half year at his current pace. So far this year Thorny's got a 1.92 ERA/2.68 FIP over 52 innings. When adjusted for park/league his ERA/FIP rank 11th/20th among relievers so far this year, per fangraphs. Compare that to Miller who has posted a 1.85 ERA/1.88 FIP in 180 innings over the last three years, which ranks him 4th/2nd among relievers over that time period when adjusted for league/park. Miller = truly elite over multiple seasons. Throny (so far) = really good for one year. Assuming he maintains his current pace I would peg Thorny's trade value right around that of Will Smith, if not slightly lower given Smith had a longer track record of success & is left handed.
  14. sveumrules
    Explain why? Coors Field, mostly. Also Bryant is at 379/525 OBP/SLG the last two years compared to 337/567 for Arenado. Those 40 extra points of OBP Bryant has are worth far more than the 40 extra points of SLG that Arenado has even before accounting for park factors. Throw the Coors effect in there and that gap widens even further.
  15. sveumrules
    The Cameron & Weeks comps are interesting since their career lines are very similar, with Keon's recent tear pushing his season line a little ahead of them. Cameron 249/338/444 107 w RC+ Weeks Jr. 247/345/422 107 wRC+ Broxton 250/366/441 116 wRC+ If anybody had told me that in April that I'd be more interested in watching Keon than Arcia come August/September I would have been more than a little dubious.
  16. sveumrules
    Many saw no good reason that Aaron Hill would be worth anything at this year's deadline, but he was. Granted it wasn't much, but it was something. Gomez is younger & has had greater success more recently than Hill before this season. While the most likely outcome is that Carlos won't have any value at the 2017 deadline, a lot can happen between now & then. Especially with a whole offseason to hopefully get his body right.
  17. sveumrules
    This year the Brewers played 103 games before the trade deadline, that's 309 OF starts. Say you gave Gomez 1 day a week in LF & 1-2 days a week in CF/RF. Something like LF: Braun 85, Gomez 18. CF: Broxton 76, Gomez 27. RF: Santana 76, Gomez 27. That would break down as Braun 85, Broxton 76, Santana 76 & Gomez 72 before the deadline, assuming no injuries. You can tweak the distribution of games to your preference but I think if the situation is managed mindfully there is enough room for someone like Carlos on the team without majorly impacting the development of Broxton or Santana at the MLB level or Brinson/Maverick on the MiLB side of things as both should probably spend at minimum the first few months of next season in AAA anyway.
  18. sveumrules
    Even if he turns out to be a poor man's Mike Cameron it would be pretty amazing but I'm dreaming of Eric Davis circa 1987.
  19. sveumrules
    I think the offensive comparisons to Escobar are primarily based on the similarity of their minor league track record. Alcides (Age | Level | PAs | wRC+) 19 | A+ | 382 | 73 20 | A+ | 283 | 102 20 | AA | 245 | 78 21 | AA | 597 | 114 22 | AAA | 487 | 102 Minor League Career 293/333/377 Orlando (Age | Level | PAs | wRC+) 18 | A | 486 | 84 19 | A+ | 546 | 113 20 | AA | 552 | 126 21 | AAA | 440 | 90 Minor League Career 282/339/404 Orlando was younger & incrementally better across the board in component stats (BB%, K%, ISO) than Alcides which is why I think Escobar is viewed as a good comp for Arcia's floor on offense. Alcides has hit about 260/300/340 so far in the majors, I think a 270/320/380 projection for Arcia seems fair which combined with hopefully above average defense & baserunning would add up to about 3 WAR.
  20. sveumrules
    & Jungmann was pitching terribly last year in the minors before he was called up & ran off a 2.42 ERA in his first 16 MLB starts. There is far more that goes into a player's readiness than their stats before & after being called up. Mike Trout hit a very Arcia-like 157/214/314 in his first 56 plate appearances. Imagine what could have been were he not rushed to MLB before he was ready.
  21. sveumrules
    I agree with FVBrewerFan that the W/L record is unlikely to improve next year. We got off to a better than expected start this year plus we traded away positive contributors in Lucroy, Jeffress & Smith at the deadline. Braun has also had his best season since 2012 so I would expect some regression from him next year as well.
  22. sveumrules
    ...those are generally players who were adaptable and got the most out their talent, I never saw that from CC as a player. Counsell was an 11th round pick who played over 1,600 games in 16 seasons, got over 5,000 plate appearances and started on two WS winners. He ran a BB% over 10 with an .089 ISO. I think he is a perfect example of someone who got the most out of their talent.
  23. sveumrules
    I'd be excited if Orlando could hit as well as Russell has so far in his major league career, the main hurdle I see is that Addison has always hit for considerably more power than Arcia. Addison MiLB career 301/377/520 Orlando MiLB career 282/339/404 Addison MLB career 243/316/396 The edge Arcia has on someone like Russell is superior speed & contact skills. Addison struck out in about 21% of his minor league plate appearances compared to only about 12% for Orlando. Hopefully Arcia can leverage those advantages into a higher batting average than Russell has put up so far as I don't think the odds of him matching Addison in walk rate or power production are very high.
  24. sveumrules
    http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/ Based on the linked research the 42 hitters ranked between #11-25 by BA since 1990 have produced an average of 13 WAR during their club control years. Alcides peaked at #12 and put up 10.8 during his club control years, so he's slightly underperformed his ranking by their calculations. Main cause being his abysmal batting lines outside of 2012 & 2014. As it relates to Orlando, I think his ranking was based on someone like Alcides being a comp for a likely attainable floor with a good chance that Arcia provides better offensive production. What will be fun to see is by how much? How soon? & with how much consistency? Also, one thousand posts apparently. Thanks brewerfan.net for years of education & entertainment!
  25. sveumrules
    A few weeks ago I thought Carlos on a one year deal to hopefully rebuild value and flip at the 2017 deadline was a foregone conclusion this offseason, and I was fine with that. A little excited, even. At this point though with Broxton's recent tear and the acquisition of Brinson I hope Carlos can get it all figured out again somewhere else.
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