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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Ken Giles had a season and a half but the Astros gave up a haul for him. In that season and a half before Giles was traded he had 115 IPs with a 1.56 ERA/1.82 FIP. When adjusted for park/league those numbers were both 4th among all relievers in that time. Over the last two years Thorny has 101 IPs with a 2.66 ERA/3.61 FIP. When adjusted for park/league those numbers rank 31st/67th among all relievers in that time. So Giles was younger, had more success, more team control & from what I could find no history of arm problems when dealt. Add it all up & I can see why he commanded more of a return than Tyler. It should also be noted that both players we've been able to find so far as trade comps for Thorny had underwhelming results or almost no results due to injury in the season following their trades, offering a snapshot of the volatility exhibited by all relievers, but especially ones with a limited record of consistent results.
  2. sveumrules
    For those underwhelmed with the return, what deal can you recall where a reliever with one good season has been traded for a "quality" prospect? I mentioned Carson Smith earlier in the thread who had five years of control remaining when the Red Sox acquired him last winter for Wade Miley & Jonathan Aro with Seattle also sending Roenis Elias to Boston in the deal. Something else to consider is Thornburg has had elbow issues in both 2014 & 2015 which combined with his limited track record of success further depresses his value. Sure we might have gotten a haul had we held out until the deadline & Tyler stayed healthy & continued to pitch like he did this last summer, but there's also a very real chance Thorny would get hurt or his production would slip with his value falling accordingly. The calculus for me comes down to this, we know what we got for Tyler today. We can hypothesize what he might have demanded at the deadline. It looks like Stearns & company decided the marginally better return we might have gotten in 3-4 months wasn't worth the risk of injury or declining results. Not to mention this move opens up the closer spot so we can still maybe deal a "proven closer" at the deadline when prices for relief help increase.
  3. sveumrules
    Carson Cistulli was intrigued enough by Dubon to do some further digging with regards to his AA performance this year... "Curious about the implications of Dubon’s performance, I identified every 21-year-old Eastern League batter from the five-year interval between 2010 and 2014 who had recorded (a) at least 200 plate appearances and (b) a strikeout rate below 15% and © an isolated-power figure above .150. The list is a short one: from a sample of 964 Eastern League players who meet the plate-appearance criterion, only two others meet the additional constraints. Both of their names are familiar, Mookie Betts & Lonnie Chisenhall." I would assume Stearns & company performed a similar exercise as part of their evaluation.
  4. sveumrules
    Exactly, Monty. Sure we could have kept Thorny until the deadline and hoped another four months of dominant relief work boosted his stock, but one injury and his value is completely torpedoed. By trading him now and letting the Red Sox take on that risk we can install someone else in the closer's role and hopefully flip them at the deadline for even more future assets.
  5. sveumrules
    As a point of comparison the Red Sox traded for Carson Smith last offseason. He was coming off 70 innings of 2.31 ERA (2.12 FIP, 166 ERA+) work with Seattle & had five years of team control remaining. The return was Wade Miley & Jonathan Aro with the Mariners also sending Roenis Elias to Boston with Smith, who ended up requiring elbow surgery and only pitched 2 2/3 inning for Boston in 2016. Compare that to the package we are getting for only three years of Thornburg coming off 67 innings of 2.15 ERA (2.83 FIP, 199 ERA+) work & it's hard for me to not think the return justifies the send.
  6. sveumrules
    He put up a 151 wRC+ in 269 AA plate appearances last year so I would think an assignment to AAA to start the year would be fine. Who would be the AAA SS otherwise, Rivera again?
  7. sveumrules
    Definitely a very interesting study and a good reminder that even the highest rated prospects often times don't live up to their billing. Pretty sure I referenced it at some point in the Arcia thread shortly after he was called up when posters were underwhelmed by his offense relative to his prospect status.
  8. sveumrules
    It would be great if Shaw could be next year's version of Villar Villar was the first person I thought of when I saw Shaw's inclusion in the deal. Villar pre-MIL: 658 PAs 236/300/353 83 wRC+ Shaw pre-MIL: 778 PAs 251/312/442 97 w RC+ Granted Shaw is a little older and further down the positional spectrum so he probably doesn't have the same upside as Villar but I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up something around a 270/330/450 triple slash next year.
  9. sveumrules
    From MLB Daily... "Given the incredible returns fetched by Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman last season and the fact that Thornburg will be with the Sox for at least three years, this seems like a light return for the Brewers. Shaw provides some value now, especially if he can get his bat back on track. And Dubon and Pennington may be valuable pieces two years down the road. But given the amount teams are willing to pay to acquire elite relievers, it’s a little shocking not to see Milwaukee get a more exciting package for theirs." Of course the return is going to seem light when compared against the returns on Chapman & Miller. They have both been elite relievers for multiple seasons and were acquired at the deadline. Thornburg has been very good for one year and was moved in the offseason.
  10. sveumrules
    Really enjoyed watching him pitch this season. I didn't remember him exuding quite as much flair while on the mound when he was with the Cubs earlier in his career. The Fangraphs write up on the signing mentioned Junior Guerra briefly, relevant text below... "Do you think of Junior Guerra as an ace? He’s thrown 122 innings and faced 492 Major League batters over the last two years, allowing the same wOBA as Jon Lester and a lower wOBA than Corey Kluber. Rich Hill has been great for about the same length of time that Guerra has been good, and people remain quite skeptical of Guerra, after all."
  11. sveumrules
    Santana started 28 of the first 40 games in RF before going on the DL. Over that same timeframe Kirk did not start a single game in RF. Santana came back to the majors from injury/rehab on August 19th. From then until the end of the season he started 30 of 42 games. Over that same timeframe Kirk started 16 games, 6 of which came in center. When both players were healthy Kirk did not play RF over Domingo.
  12. sveumrules
    I came across this tweet from renowned fantasy baseballer Todd Zola, aka Lord Zola, in regards to Thames that I thought was pretty interesting... "Eric Thames is breaking my projection engine. Considering KBO at Double-A level and accounting for age, he's still top-100. Just can't do it."
  13. sveumrules
    Thanks for everything Chris, really enjoyed your stoic demeanor especially when contrasted against your truly majestic bombs. Hopefully we can work out a deal sending you to Colorado so the bombs can continue in their majesty, humidor be darned.
  14. sveumrules
    If Thames tears his ACL this spring & never plays the Brewers will have 4 million in dead payroll in 2017, 5 million in dead payroll in 2018, 6 million in dead payroll in 2019 and 1 million in dead payroll in 2020. I don't see those amounts hindering any other moves given our current & likely future payroll situation. All Thames has to do to provide even value on the contract is produce about 2 WAR, anything over that is gravy. For me the potential upside far outweighs the potential risk, which won't even act as a significant hindrance should it come to fruition.
  15. sveumrules
    They're paying him for less than 1 WAR each year. The total outlay is 16 million over three years which won't hinder any future moves with our payroll situation even if Thames never plays a game. There is virtually no downside to this contract.
  16. sveumrules
    This was my first thought when I saw the move. Assuming the price tag would be similar just go all in on KBO corner infielders.
  17. sveumrules
    Chris Archer tweeted out "Take it for what it's worth, I've been in Tampa for 4 years and I couldn't tell you what Fred Goodall looks like or who he is." in regards to the Tampa AP writer who left Verlander off his ballot.
  18. sveumrules
    Should be an interesting case study in how much teams' value their 40 man roster spots. The Rangers essentially playing with only 39 certainly puts them at a marginal disadvantage. Depending on how many guys Texas feels they need to protect the year before Fielder's contract expires I could see them releasing him and foregoing the insurance payment for the last season.
  19. sveumrules
    Of course there is no way to know for certain, but I would guess that playing time/lineup construction/preferred reliever usage is decided upon collaboratively between Counsell & Stearns/the front office. Specific decisions may have more input from one side or the other, but I doubt there are many situations where Counsell is going rogue in defiance of things that have been discussed with Stearns & company.
  20. sveumrules
    Valbuena definitely makes a decent amount of sense. I like the Dozier/Cuthbert idea though with Moustakas (& a bunch of other core guys) hitting FA after 2017 I could see KC being hesitant to deal with an eye on them being their possible 3B/RF of the future. FG published a pretty lengthy article today about Jae Gyun Hwang from Korea who might be another name to throw in the mix as he likely won't cost much. His power spiked two years ago and he maintained that power spike while drastically cutting his strikeouts last year. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-next-good-hitter-to-come-from-south-korea/#more-236659
  21. sveumrules
    Begs the question, why would Boston give up top prospects for Braun when they can just sign a very similar player off the street? If the Red Sox believe Braun projects to be equal to or better than Encarnacion over the next four years they might not mind trading a prospect like Devers (who is blocked/at least two years away) in order to acquire him plus buy a nice late inning reliever with the 20ish million in cost savings over Encarnacion. Would it help at all for the Brewers to take on a contract like Pablo Sandavol, in order to get a better grouping of prospects in return? I would definitely take back Pablo if it sweetened the prospect pot. He's only got 3/58 left on his deal and we have both the payroll space & hole at 3B to accommodate him. Could be a good candidate to flip at the deadline if he regains his past form & even if he doesn't the payroll hit likely wouldn't be much of an impediment given where we project to be on the win curve in forthcoming seasons.
  22. sveumrules
    I think Edwin Encarnacion is a pretty good comp for determining Braun's surplus value since the two share the same general profile as aging bat first sluggers with limited defensive value. Last two years numbers are below... RB | 295/361/518 | 131 wRC+ | 1,132 PAs EE | 269/364/542 | 142 wRC+ | 1,326 PAs Pretty close. Braun is probably the better pure hitter with Encarnacion making up for the singles deficit with more walks and extra base hits. Braun is also a superior base runner with a +1.6 mark compared to -4.3 for Edwin. On the defensive side of things Encarnacion has played about 1,100 innings of OK first base with the rest of his time coming at DH. Braun is at over 2,200 innings in LF/RF the last two years with a DRS of +5 & UZR of -9. I'd say Braun clearly has more to offer than Encarnacion on defense. Braun will be 33 for 2017, Encarnacion 34. Braun has 4/76 remaining with MLBTR projecting Encarnacion for 4/92. Of course Edwin just costs the money it takes to sign him, plus a comp pick, while Braun would require player capital to acquire for any interested team. If Encarnacion really pulls 4/92 or thereabouts it would appear Braun has at least 15-20 million in surplus value on his current deal if not more depending on how different teams value the slight differences in their profiles.
  23. sveumrules
    Yeah, that Guyer AB was the perfect example of why the "human element" should be phased out as quickly as possible in the deciding of balls and strikes. He takes two pitches off the plate (correctly called balls) earlier in the AB then Lester comes back to the same spot on 3-2 and now it's a strike?
  24. sveumrules
    I'm not sure Haniger would be in my top 15 and Banda would fit in the top 15. To me Haniger would be where I would put Reed if he had the same year Haniger had so somewhere in the 20-25 range. Haniger seems to look like he is in between a AAAA player and a backup OF which is where I would put Reed and Wren at. Thanks, Nate. That was kind of my read as well. Figured Banda wouldn't be any higher than Woodruff at 8, but probably would still put him around the range of Lopez to Peralta at 12 to 16. For Haniger I thought his best upper and lower end comps in our system were probably Cordell (#17) & Reed (unranked) depending on how much or little one buys into his mechanical changes this year.
  25. sveumrules
    Banda & Haniger checked in at #1 & #3 on Fangraphs Diamondbacks list. Where would they have slotted in on this list? 10-15ish range? Also, thanks to all who voted and of course to Reilly for putting it all together. It's always interesting to see how the forums list compares to the "experts" as they eventually come out over the winter.
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