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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Wily Peralta - 20 game winner watch?
sveumrules replied to liveforoctober's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I agree that it will come down to run support, but Fernandomania won an NL best 21 games in 1986, the same year his hermano Mexicano Teddy Higuera won 20. -
NL MVP will be interesting, too. Pretty wide open at this point. Going down the WAR leaderboard you've got Tulo (hurt/bad team), Giancarlo (bad team), McCutchen (hurt currently), Puig (loathed by old school media types), Heyward (meh offense, superb defense), then Gomez & Lucroy. Even though it's tough for pitchers to win if Kershaw keeps his ERA below 2.00 and gets close to 20 wins against maybe 3 or 4 losses he'll take home the trophy.
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I think Luc is in the driver's seat at this point with Yadi hurt. Posey has never been considered a plus defender and has been spending more time at 1B lately. These aren't your same old Gold Gloves. Last year they incorporated defensive metrics as a percentage of the vote. If that includes framing, something Luc rates highly in & has gotten a lot of positive press for, that can only help. Throw in the fact that Luc is having a stellar offensive year on a contender and I think you've got the perfect storm for him to win. And deservedly so.
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Average ERA for AL starters is 4.00 this year. 4.76 is bottom 10 in MLB right next to Marco Estrada.
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Only 4th actually, coming into the game. While UBR certainly has larger error bars than something like wOBA it is still more meaningful, accurate and scientific than anyone's opinion.
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Mench had 1 almost full season with an OPS over .834 in 2004 when he put up a .874 over 481 plate appearances. That was good for an OPS+ of 116. Braun's .834 OPS this year is good for a 130 OPS+ as it is markedly more difficult to hit now than it was ten years ago. Braun at his very worst following a month long slump is still signficantly better than Mench was at his very best. Braun's season at this point is certainly not "significantly better" than a season with 26 HR's and a .874 OPS. I probably should have more accurately stated that's a "great" year for Kevin Mench back in the day. Braun is currently 34rd in wRC+, in 2004 (once you lower the plate appearance threshold so that he qualifies) Mench was 66th. Whether that difference is significant or not is a matter of semantics but either way, even Mench's best season was worse than what Braun is doing currently.
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Mench had 1 almost full season with an OPS over .834 in 2004 when he put up a .874 over 481 plate appearances. That was good for an OPS+ of 116. Braun's .834 OPS this year is good for a 130 OPS+ as it is markedly more difficult to hit now than it was ten years ago. Braun at his very worst following a month long slump is still signficantly better than Mench was at his very best.
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Nice play by Segura to get the lead runner, saved us a run on that single.
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Random MLB News & Discussion 2014
sveumrules replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I don't really see a fix attendance wise for MIA, TB or ARI. Lots of transplants in those states. At least ARI saw a nice spike around their World Series season, MIA not so much. TB puts out a competitive team year in and year out & it doesn't seem to matter with their stadium situation. They should relocate to Brooklyn, change their name to the Ray-Bans. -
Looks like this is also the MLB.TV game of the day.
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Here's the thing though, if I respond to a negative post with a contrasting point of view by the very nature of the words' definitions I am offering a positive point of view.
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The bullpen can't hold a lead for three innings? Without consulting the game logs I'm sure they've done just that numerous times this year. Talk about a straw man. What do you think the record is for teams that only score 2 runs in a game? I'd wager it is under .500. So blaming the offense had we lost 3-2 would hardly have been a huge fallacy. Luckily that didn't happen. We won the game handily. We are still alone in first place. Regardless of how the season ends this team has already exceeded any expectations I had four months ago and for that I am happy.
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I love how you're only here to criticize other people's posts. That's awesome. Every time the bullpen doesn't have a perfect inning they're going to cost us the season. Every time we make an out on the bases we're the worst base running team in the league. I'm just trying to counteract the abundant negativity during a season when we've been in first place for over 4 months.
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We score 4 runs in the bottom of the 7th to retake the lead and the majority of the posts still have a negative tone. Pure comedy. I get it, Carlos Gomez has a less than ideal approach. He's one of the best players in the league with said approach. I'll live with it.
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Sure we'd be better this year in theory, but we're already in a pretty good position to make the postseason as is. I'll take the 2 playoff appearances that would not have occurred without those trades over just about any hypothetical.
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Thanks, Dee. And here I thought we were the only team that made stupid base running mistakes.
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Prince Fielder is the worst defensive first baseman I've ever observed. If he can't be considered catastrophic I don't know who can. Adam Dunn maybe? I agree that 1B is clearly easier than 3B, but why move Braun from a more difficult position where he is an average defender to an easier one where he will, in all likelihood, be below average?
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The objective data I posted above doesn't necessarily agree with your subjective recollection.
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Third base and first base both require quick, instinctual reaction times as they are the two closest positions to home plate, besides the pitcher of course. I don't think that after getting 7 years older and playing the outfield for that entire time that Braun's reactions/instincts will have improved at all. Sure, lots of aging players have ended up there but how was their defense? If Braun needs to move to first at some point because his outfield defense is slipping or we acquire another plus corner outfielder, that's fine. I just don't believe we've reached that point yet because his OF defense is fine and Gerardo Parra is not a plus corner outfielder.
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Ryan Braun was a historically bad third baseman. I've seen posts on this forum over the years saying his throwing was the main culprit which would not be a problem at first base. The numbers simply do not bear this out. His UZR was -28.5 in less than a full season, -42.8 extrapolated to 150 games. Of that, -20.1 was attributed to his poor range and -8.4 was attributed to his arm. There were 225 balls hit in his defined zone, 127 of which he turned into outs for a conversion rate of .564. For comparison the league average conversion rate for all 3B in 2007 was .680 with the next worst offender among qualifiers being Edwin Encarnacion at .600. By both the eye test and the numbers Braun is a serviceable corner outfielder. Moving him back to the infield where a significant portion of his offensive value would be negated by his horrendous defense is something I'd rather not see.
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There were 14 players suspended as a result of the initial Biogenesis bust. That's the same number of players that failed a test for non-stimulant PEDs over the previous five years. That combined with the fact that Braun was the only Biogenesis guy with a previous fail tells me that the testing is not working.
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Brandon Kintzler - Should he be sent down?
sveumrules replied to Bombers's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Coming into the year Kintzler was behind Thornburg & Henderson on the righty reliever depth chart. They are both hurt. Recently Jeffress has been the go to righty in high leverage situations. They've been using him as carefully as realistically possible given the circumstances and options at hand. What could the organization do to demonstrate to you that they are holding people accountable? Fire someone? Come out and blast them in the media? Right now I'm holding MA, DM, RR and every player on the roster accountable for being in first place when no one predicted they'd be anywhere close to this position gefore the season began. -
I guess if I'm going to "bodyguard" anyone I would rather it be a cheating millionaire than a lying billionaire. In recent years baseball should be commended for what exactly? They roll out a so called world class, olympic quality testing program so that fans can say, "See! They're cleaning up the game!" Yet, players rarely fail the tests and in order to catch anyone cheating they needed to bust the supplier.
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Everybody that's wanted to see Kintzler the last few games...here you go.
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Cheating comes in many degrees. Pre-testing guys were taking anabolic steroids. This allowed them to add crazy amounts of muscle mass which resulted in cartoonish video game numbers and an unprecedented era of offense. Now with testing in place guys can't take steroids anymore because they stay in your system too long and there'd be failed tests all over the place. So they've turned to HGH which is harder to detect (as evidenced by the large majority of Biogenesis clients never failing a test) and doesn't help build muscle mass so much as it aids in recovery and makes guys feel fresh. I would also theorize HGH is much more beneficial to pitchers as evidenced by the ever decreasing run scoring environment.
