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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Cole has 19.6 rWAR (4th) and 17.2 fWAR (6th) since joining the Yankees. That’s 3.9 rWAR | 3.4 fWAR per 150 IP. The only pitchers ten years younger than Cole to hit those numbers last year were Skenes (5.7 rWAR | 4.3 fWAR in 133 IP) and Hunter Greene (5.5 rWAR | 3.8 fWAR in 150 IP). Bryan Woo (3.2 rWAR | 2.3 fWAR in 121 IP) and Spencer Scheellenbach (3.0 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR in 123 IP) were close, but didn’t quite get there.
  2. sveumrules
    Smith walked three guys in his first outing over 1.2 IP. He had a 16.21 BB9 after the game. He has walked zero over five innings since then bringing his BB9 down to 4.05. If he puts up 0 BB | 3 IP again like he did in his last outing he’d be down to a 2.79 BB9 this spring. 1 BB | 4 IP would make it 3.38. These things change fast in small spring samples. His BB9 throughout the minors was 3.0 and the projections have him down for a 3.3 BB9 in MLB for 2025.
  3. sveumrules
    Pretty close to it. According to this leaderboard on FanGraphs the 2024 Brewers +14.4 wSB (weighted stolen base runs) was the 12th highest mark among 1,154 individual full team seasons over the last 40 years, with only the 2007 Mets (+15.0 wSB), 2007 Phillies (+14.1 wSB), 2013 Royals (+13.2 wSB), 2008 Phillies (+12.8 wSB), and 2024 Reds (+12.6 wSB) in the same neighborhood among recent-ish teams.
  4. sveumrules
    Last year’s White Sox had a 4.1 BB9. Take the since departed Garrett Crochet (146 IP of 2.0 BB9) and Erick Fedde (131 IP of 2.5 BB9) out of the mix and the rest of their staff had a 4.4 BB9.
  5. sveumrules
    FanGraphs with a nice Ueck article today including anecdotes from Lucroy, Kam Loe, and Dim Tillard.
  6. sveumrules
    Yeah, feel like I remember seeing them here last spring. Believe someone (Brewers PD or one of the beat guys?) was posting them on Twitter then a poster (@Ro Mueller maybe?) was copying them over to the forums.
  7. sveumrules
    Smith averaged over three innings per appearance and had eleven outings between four and six IP last year. Only six times did he throw one inning or less. Even coming off injury, his 154 IP were 14th among all Brewers farmhands the last two years. He’s been gradually building up for two years now post-TJ, this isn’t somebody whose been groomed as a one inning reliever.
  8. sveumrules
    Jackson played at a 1 WAR per 100 PAs pace over the last four months. Brewers leadoff hitters got 755 PAs last year. So essentially would just need to hit leadoff all year and see a slight uptick in his wRC+ or defense/base running numbers to get there.
  9. sveumrules
    This might be true if Smith were going to a regular old run of the mill bad team, but he’s not. Last year’s White Sox bullpen put up -11.22 Win Probability Added, the Nationals had the 2nd worst bullpen in 2024 at -2.68 WPA. There have been 30 teams in MLB since 1998, so that’s 780 team bullpen full seasons. Only the 1999 Royals (-10.94 WPA) and 2021 Nats (-9.89 WPA) gave the White Sox a run for their money. White Sox rotation managed 7.2 rWAR (24th) last year, but 6.7 of that came from Crochet and Fedde who are gone. Venable said they are considering Smith as a potential rotation option… “I think we’ll continue to build him up as a starter, knowing he can be a versatile piece for us,” Venable said. “I think we owe it to him, and his ability, to stretch him out and look at him as a starter here.”
  10. sveumrules
    Looks like Craig Counsell got Dave Roberts an extra 100K annually on his new deal.
  11. sveumrules
    Yes, one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues. Among 441 pitchers with at least 150 IP over the last two years… 2.86 xFIP (2nd) | 24.3 K-BB% (3rd) | 32.4 K% (4th) | 1.01 WHIP (5th) | 3.03 FIP (5th) | 2.63 ERA (7th) | .193 AVG (12th) If Shane put up those numbers as a highly drafted player at age appropriate levels he’d be a top prospect in all of baseball, but since he did it as an older undrafted FA he’ll have to settle for #1 pick in the R5 as far as accolades go. Of course there were mitigating factors as to why Erceg only threw 147 innings after high school and before MLB, just like there have been mitigating factors for Smith doing the same. The reason Lucas didn’t get popped in the R5 is because his minor league results were nowhere near as impressive… 4.52 xFIP | 8.5 K-BB% | 23.1 K% | 1.59 WHIP | 5.01 FIP | 5.07 ERA | .245 AVG
  12. sveumrules
    Yeah, average age for Carolina League pitchers was 21.6 and it was 23.1 for the Midwest League so while most of his peers were trying to figure out A/A+ Carlos was already putting up a better than average season as the youngest regular SP in the hitter friendly International League.
  13. sveumrules
    I’d say the big question is if he can stay healthy and effective for a full MLB season as a reliever since he came up short of that last year. If he can’t make it through a full season relief workload, odds are he wouldn’t hold up as a starter either.
  14. sveumrules
    No one pitched much in 2020 on account of the pandemic, then Shane lost most of the 2021-22 seasons to TJ. Since then he’s been healthy and one of the best pitchers in the minors for the last two years. Going back to Erceg, he threw a grand total of 147 innings spaced out over ten calendar years after high school and before making it to MLB.
  15. sveumrules
    Yeah, Smith has been one of the best pitchers in all of the minor leagues the last two years. Among 441 pitchers with at least 150 IP over that stretch he ranks… 2.86 xFIP (2nd) | 24.3 K-BB% (3rd) | 32.4 K% (4th) | 1.01 WHIP (5th) | 3.03 FIP (5th) | 2.63 ERA (7th) | .193 AVG (12th) I can’t help but wonder if there wasn’t some element of “do right by the player” going on here, similar to when they dealt Erceg to Oakland. Even if the Brewers added Smith to the 40 Man, he still would have had a long road to earning consistent time on the 26 Man with the amount of bullpen depth the Brewers have. Leaving him unprotected for the R5 gives him an immediate path to a long leash earning service time & MLB salary on the 26 Man, which as an undrafted free agent with a lengthy injury history is pretty a big deal.
  16. sveumrules
    “After a strong MLB debut in 2024, Black played only seven games before being sent down.” Probably because he was hitting 227/261/318 after those seven games. ”Despite continued success in the minors” Black hit for a combined 145 wRC+ at AA/AAA in 2023, but fell off significantly to a 114 wRC+ in AAA last year. ”Black was repeatedly sent back down to make room for other players, like Garrett Mitchell.” Probably because Mitchell is a GG calibre CF who has hit for a 123 wRC+ over 365 career MLB PAs, while Black isn’t either of those things.
  17. sveumrules
    I personally had him #20 in the last vote we did, but the main factors holding him back for those that don’t have him that high would be… 1) depth of the system. last balloting there were 15 more or less consensus guys who showed up on at least 24 of the 27 ballots and KC Hunt was on 21 of the 27 at #16. 2) he’s been old for his level every step of the way and is at the bottom of the defensive spectrum as a 1B prospect. 3) outside of his last 200 PAs of 2024 his production has always been more good than OMG WHA HAPPEND so there’s still some question if it was just a hot streak to end the year or if Ernesto figured something out that unlocked a new talent level
  18. sveumrules
    Here's my best guess how they might divvy up weekly starts in that arrangement. Would need to give everyone a day a week at DH too... 1B - Adams (3) Wilken (3) 2B - Areinamo (3) EBJ (3) SS - Pratt (5) EBJ (1) 3B - Wilken (2) Adams (2) Areinamo (2) Ideally Wilken/Adams would get more time at 3B and EBJ would get more at SS, but not sure there's any way to really make it work unless they're only gonna play EBJ like two times a week on the dirt or start trying him on the OF grass a couple times a week.
  19. sveumrules
    Bryant was a signing out of Indy Ball last summer. Obviously was old for his leagues but had a nice couple months with a 1.82 ERA and 33 K over 24 IP split between Carolina/Wisco.
  20. sveumrules
    Most recent YouTube footage I could find is a couple two tree years old, but looked to have a pretty whippy arm action and interesting release angle... Also came across this "Catching Up With" video produced by Whitman Athletics that talks a little about the signing process and some of the mechanical things that helped him to cut down on the walks...
  21. sveumrules
    Yeah, looks like an undrafted singing from last year. Nice strikeout numbers with 144 K over 116 IP at Whitman College in Walla Walla, Washington. Reigned in the control big time his junior year - 27 BB in 24 IP as a Freshman, 14 BB in 17 IP as a Sophmore, then down to 35 BB in 75 IP as a Junior. Had a dominant showing in the Alaskan Summer League too posting a 1.41 ERA over 32 IP with 37 K, 7 BB and only 16 hits allowed.
  22. sveumrules
    During the Bucks 8 W - 1 L run over the last nine games their 106.2 dRTG is 1st in the league. Offense (114.4 oRTG | 17th) and rebounding (50.3 REB% | 15th) have been more middle of the pack over that same time frame, but have to imagine getting Bobby back should give them a boost in both areas heading into the playoffs. Overall their +8.2 netRTG is 7th during the stretch with upcoming opponents CLE (+16.9 | 1st), GSW (+12.3 | 2nd), OKC (+8.7 | 4th), IND (+8.7 | 5th), and LAL (+6.8 | 9th) all playing at similar or better paces of late themselves.
  23. sveumrules
    Uribe, Ashby, Hall, Woodruff, Misio, Yoho, Henderson, Gasser. Those are eight talented pitchers that combined for about one win last year. I have a feeling they’ll combine for more than that this year. For decades at a time we didn’t have eight pitchers that good on the entire staff, now they are essentially high upside depth pieces. Wild times.
  24. sveumrules
    Will be interesting to see how the Bucks handle the seven game mini gauntlet they have coming up with CLE, atIND, LAL, IND, OKC, atGSW, atLAL between March 9th and 20th.
  25. sveumrules
    Looks like DL Hall to the 60 Day is the corresponding move to open a 40 Man spot for Quintana,
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