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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Sounds like the Mets are out on Pete Alonso after re-upping with Jesse Winker for $7.5M plus incentives.
  2. sveumrules
    Every fastball at Coors is 5,280 feet high to start with.
  3. sveumrules
    There 31 catchers with at least 1,000 PAs since 2021. Over that time Haase's main issues have been walking too infrequently (6.4 BB% | 22nd), and striking out too much (29.7 K% | 30th). On the defensive side there are 48 catchers with at least 1,500 innings since 2021. Haase comes in at -10 DRS (37th), -13.8 FRM (39th), and -17 FRV (43rd). So his primary weaknesses are that his batted ball profile is entirely dependent on balls in play (but there aren't many balls in play because he strikes out so much), and he is a poor defensive catcher. Contreras only caught 120 games last year, and 108 in 2023. I'd imagine he sees a similar number behind the plate again in 2025 with another thirty or forty games at DH.
  4. sveumrules
    Looks like Donovan Solano to the Mariners for one year at $3.5M.
  5. sveumrules
    “Milwaukee Brewers? That’s an MLB team??” -Roki Sasaki, probably.
  6. sveumrules
    Devanney has spent the last two seasons in AAA now. His plate discipline cratered from 11.8 BB% | 18.2 K% in 2023 to 9.0 BB% | 26.0 K% in 2024. He’ll be playing his age 28 season next year. Sure, Clarke never panned out, neither has Devanney. Maybe Cam will yet at some point, but if he were still in MKE he’d have all of Durbin, Dunn, Monasterio & even Vinny Capra ahead of him on the depth chart.
  7. sveumrules
    Rodgers tore his labrum in 2023 and has been worse across the board since though… 2021-22 (3.1 WAR) 6.5 BB% | 18.6 K% .161 ISO | 95 wRC+ 142 wRC+ vs LHP 2023-24 (1.0 WAR) 5.7 BB% | 23.7 K% .137 ISO | 85 wRC+ 106 wRC+ vs LHP
  8. sveumrules
    There’s a few things at play here I think. The first is that arbitration is separate from those other unconstrained markets you mention. The owners behave collectively so that Arby salaries will grow at a slower rate than those on the open market. The other as it relates to catchers specifically is that the combination of there being so few star offensive catchers, and there being somewhat of a ceiling on catchers performance due to the limited games played and physical toil, adds up to even slower growth than other positions. I also wonder if there wasn’t a little bit of a rising tide lifts all boats effect going on with Wieter’s $5.5M since it was the same year Buster got $8M.
  9. sveumrules
    Woah, impressive effort putting this all together. Obviously the international market is it’s whole own thing, but as the draft has seemingly trended towards college players with more robust data profiles, I can’t help but wonder if high school prospects have become somewhat undervalued and if that might be part of the reason we see a lot of the usual suspects atop the list.
  10. sveumrules
    Looping Hiura into this is some serious Pepe Silvia level stuff, bravo.
  11. sveumrules
    We only have William in the first place after moving Hader because of Money (& his performance blowing up over the two months leading into the 2022 deadline).
  12. sveumrules
    Will be interesting to see how the next three years play out for Contreras, Cal Raleigh and Adley Rutschman with all three set to hit free agency at the same time. LAST THREE YEARS Raleigh (1612 PAs | 13.9 WAR) 10.0 BB% | 28.3 K% | 117 wRC+ +29.4 FRM | +33 DRS | 28.4 CS% Rutschman (1795 PAs | 13.3 WAR) 12.0 BB% | 16.2 K% | 121 wRC+ +16.5 FRM | +24 DRS | 21.9 CS% Contreras (1666 PAs | 13.2 WAR) 10.8 BB% | 22.1 K% | 130 wRC+ +14.9 FRM | +7 DRS | 18.9 CS% Pretty close across the board with Raleigh the best defender / worst hitter, Contreras the opposite and Adley the middle man. Steamer likes Contreras (128 wRC+ | 5.2 WAR) and Raleigh (115 wRC+ | 5.2 WAR) a scooch better than Rutschman (124 wRC+ | 4.7 WAR) for 2025, while ZiPS has them projected at Raleigh (121 OPS+ | 4.8 WAR), Rutschman (120 OPS+ | 4.6 WAR), and then Contreras (122 OPS+ | 4.2 WAR). Raleigh is the oldest of the three with the lowest profile so he might seem like the most likely to take an extension, but he is also the only Boras client of the three.
  13. sveumrules
    So what you're saying is not agreeing to a salary before the deadline doesn't necessarily mean anything with regards to long term contract possibilities?
  14. sveumrules
    Good news is the Cubs apparently aren't serious about retaining Tucker after this year (but we already knew that).
  15. sveumrules
    My hunch is Contreras wants to be the first $200M catcher topping Joe Mauer's current record deal of 8/184, so any future long term deal with the Brewers is essentially a pipe dream anyway. If the Brewers offered that today they could structure it something like $6M - $10M - $15M for his three remaining Arby years with say a $4M signing bonus which would leave 5/165 ($33M annually) for his "free agent" years covering what would be his age 30 to 34 seasons. Under that structure Contreras first year at $33M would line up with the last guaranteed year of Yelich at $26M. Over the five years that Contreras would hypothetically be making $165M, Chourio is on the books for 4/57 then a couple $25M team options. No doubt the Brewers can afford it, the only question is how much sense it does or doesn't make to tie up such a large amount of resources on the most risky position in the lineup when you already have that player under control for three discounted seasons (& could potentially deal him for a haul at some point along that timeline instead of paying him big money for his thirties).
  16. sveumrules
    Rodgers made $3.2M last year and the Rockies non tendered him with a $5.5M Arby's projection from MLBTR, so his salary will likely come down somewhere around that range. Not sure where Moncada ends up, but assuming the medicals aren't too disastrous I'd imagine he'll get more than Rodgers due to having a higher upside with seasons of 3.7 and 5.2 WAR under his belt versus 1.8 WAR for Brendan's career high. Only thing Rodgers really brings to the table at this point is he is still decent against LHP with a 106 wRC+ over 200 PAs against southpaws the last two years, though that is a notable drop off from the 142 wRC+ he posted against LHP over 307 PAs from 2021-22. Otherwise he's a negative base runner, negative fielder at 2B outside of one outlier DRS season, no positional versatility, 76 wRC+ versus RHP the last four years over 1,220 PAs. That's a whole lot of meh with the only real upside being if he rebounded to his 2021-22 levels of lefty mashing.
  17. sveumrules
    You left out HR and RBI (in favor of triples?) two of the most important traditional stats to the panel and two where Raleigh has an edge over Contreras. I don’t believe the panel will look at William’s numbers and think he’s earned 900K more than Big Dumper.
  18. sveumrules
    Woodruff was a free agent, Contreras is in arbitration, they are two completely different markets. The relevant comparisons are Woodruff versus other injured free agent starting pitchers, and Contreras versus other first year Arby’s catchers. Will Smith got $5.25M, Adley Rutschman got $5.5M, Cal Raleigh got $5.6M. The Brewers offer is perfectly in line with the established market. Every other Brewers player reached an agreement, Contreras chose not to meet in the middle. He only has himself to blame if he goes and gets his feelings hurt unnecessarily.
  19. sveumrules
    Looks like Cartaya is going to the Twins for 20yo RHP Jose Vasquez who posted some gaudy K numbers in his second go round in the DSL last summer.
  20. sveumrules
    Seventh Seal is iconic, the sentimentality of Wild Strawberries probably makes it his most accessible work, Persona is my personal favourite, Hour of the Wolf if you’re looking for something a little more out there, The Magician has a simple set up and is, dare I say, jaunty - which one doesn’t really expect going into an Ingmar flick. That’s as far as I’ve gotten with his oeuvre though.
  21. sveumrules
    I’m not sure Lara is really rising. He put up a 95 wRC+ in Wisco last year and fell from #8 on the BF Top 20 entering the season down to #20 in the most recent iteration. To debut in 2025 would take at least three season ending injuries to current OFers and a huge uptick in performance from Luis at the plate. The glove might be MLB calibre now, but the bat looks to be at least a couple years away.
  22. sveumrules
    Maybe at the deadline if the Jays are out of it and Bichette’s performance has rebounded.
  23. sveumrules
    Guys whose value is heavily tied up in defense will see the biggest swings in WAR since BRef and FanGraphs use different inputs. BRef uses DRS which had Turang +22, but FanGraphs uses StatCast’s FRV which only had Turang +4. In general DRS values defense more and spits out a wider range of values (+102 to -87 top to bottom on a team level in 2024) where FRV has a much narrower view at +45 to -57 top to bottom on a team level in 2024. For me personally I tend to come down closer to DRS. I figure if the Brewers are going to sell out for defense like they have since Stearns got here (& especially the last two years since Arnold took over), they are more likely doing it thinking they can save half a run or more per game on average versus only like a quarter of a run per game tops with FRV.
  24. sveumrules
    Yup. Mauer was done behind the plate at 30, Posey retired at 34, Lucroy’s last good year was at 30, Russell Martin’s last big year was age 33, Brian McCann was done after 33, Yaz Grandal fell of after 32, Posada made it to 35 before the cliff, but that was almost 20 years ago now, Realmuto has fallen off hard since 31. He Who Shall Not Be Named probably had the best longevity of any modern catcher and his last big year was at age 33 before closing it out with a diminished but still solid run from age 34 to 38. Enjoy the next year or two of Contreras, trade him for a haul, and let someone else roll the dice on making him the first $200M catcher.
  25. sveumrules
    21: 102 wRC+ | 1.4 WAR 22: 111 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR 23: 122 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR 24: 153 wRC+ | 3.0 WAR Who knows how things will play out post surgery, but Yelich was on his third straight year of improved performance before the back became too much to bear.
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