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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Yeah, Ernesto and Adamczewski are the only two that aren't on there that I'd try to make sure got on my Top 30, but other than Collins not sure who I'd take off either.
  2. sveumrules
    Three SP heading into FA after 2025, Freddy has an $8M team option for 2026.
  3. sveumrules
    Agree that Carlos Rodriguez hasn't done much lately to inspire a ton of confidence, but one thing to keep in mind is that he is still pretty young. Last year only him and Mick Abel threw 100 IP or more in AAA during their age 22 season or younger, and Carlos's ERA was almost full two runs lower even though Abel has gotten multiple Top 100 placements over the years.
  4. sveumrules
    He fell off pretty hard last year. 72 ERA- | 76 FIP- | 93 xFIP- in 2022. 85 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 102 xFIP- in 2023. 95 ERA- | 113 FIP- | 109 xFIP- in 2024. 2022 and 2023 were also aided by really good/lucky home run suppression (42 HR9+), but that caught up with him big time last year with a more appropriate 103 HR9+. At the same time his last six regular season starts were ridiculous last year with 36 IP of 19 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 87 xFIP- and he followed that up with 0 ER over 11 IP in his first two postseason starts before the Dodgers finally got to him in the NLCS so hopefully there are another 170 or so IP of 95 ERA- left in the tank, as that shook out to 3.0 rWAR for Jose last year.
  5. sveumrules
    Obligatory "Quintana? That creep can roll, man" Big Lebowski reference.
  6. sveumrules
    Nothing too special, but should hopefully eat innings, fit right in to the Brewers FIP beating ways and push Ashby to the bullpen... Quintana 2024 95 ERA- | 113 FIP- Brewers 2024 88 ERA- | 102 FIP-
  7. sveumrules
    I don't think anyone is blowing anything. Black is defensively limited (at least by the Brewers high and successful standards) and his bat fell off big time at AAA last year. 2022-23 (841 PAs) 283/413/483 (142 wRC+) 15.8 BB% | 17.1 K% 2024 (462 PAs) 258/374/429 (114 wRC+) 13.2 BB% | 18.8 K% Old friend Keston Hiura has a 135 wRC+ in AAA the last two years and all he has to show for it are 27 PAs in MLB with a 148/148/148 triple slash. I'd still like to see him in the Bauers role from last year if he is healthy enough, but if he does go back to AAA he's going to need a performance uptick to push the envelope on earning playing time.
  8. sveumrules
    I was thinking something like 240/310/420 would be a pretty good season for Dunn. Checked and his 80th percentile ZiPS is 235/320/392 (97 OPS+) so in the general ballpark. If he could put up something like that along with plus base running and defense (was +0.8 BsR and +3 DRS in his tiny sample last year), you’re essentially talking Ryan McMahon territory.
  9. sveumrules
    I do like Chourio in the leadoff spot over Turang if that is how they end up going. FanGraphs has league batting order splits going back to 2002 and it’s kind of interesting looking at how the league has approached that spot over the last twenty years. League Average Leadoff wRC+ 2002-07: 93, 93, 98, 99, 97, 99 (climbing towards average) 2008-15: 101, 101, 94, 100, 96, 100, 102, 101 (cromulence mostly achieved) 2016-20: 105, 99, 105, 104, 105 (starting to see some 105’s in there) 2021-24: 107, 103, 111, 108 (lil dip in 2022, but otherwise 105 has been left behind) It has gotten to the point where in each of the last two years the league average leadoff hitter (111 and 108 wRC+) has been better than the league average clean up hitter (108 and 106 wRC+).
  10. sveumrules
    .300 AVG / 1.000 OPS is like Top 5 Hitter in baseball land, agree that's likely overly optimistic. I'd be more than fine if he could stay healthy enough to put up 500 PAs of his career average production (.806 OPS) which would be something like a 4 WAR player.
  11. sveumrules
    Definitely feels like we are in somewhat of a transitional phase as it relates to teams winning multiple NBA Championships with no repeats in the last six years. Kawhi in 2019, LeBron in 2020, Bucks in 2021, Curry in 2022, Jokic in 2023 and Celtics last year, 50/50 split of the old guard getting one last ring (for now), and the new guys getting their first. If CLE or OKC can ride out their #1 seeds that would make it seven in a row with different winners after LeBron/GSW won seven straight from 2012-18. I just want one Giannis Bucks vs Jokic Nuggets Finals before time runs out. Can't imagine too many other "Best Players in the World" went seven seasons without ever meeting in the Finals. Maybe Kareem / Dr. J in the 1970's because of the ABA split?
  12. sveumrules
    When the Bucks had their extended run of good play in the first half (24 W - 10 L from 11/12 through 01/27) their 109.4 dRTG was 5th in the league for that stretch. Obviously a lot smaller sample, but during this 5 W - 1 L run they are currently on their 104.3 dRTG is 2nd in the league. Still think second round in the realistic ceiling, but their chances of pulling off an upset or two are definitely better in my eyes now than they were before the deadline, assuming health from Giannis/Dame of course.
  13. sveumrules
    Yeah, EMJ was always tooled up but also in that nexus of old for his level, first base only (smattering of games in CF notwithstanding), good not great production at A/A+. His first taste of AA in 2023 came in at 245/355/349 (97 wRC+) with a 13.6 BB% | 17.6 K% over 125 PAs. Through June of 2024 he had nudged things up to 236/305/397 (108 wRC+) with a 6.6 BB% and 19.1 K% over 256 PAs to start the year. Things really took off around July when he cranked it up to 349/443/558 (195 wRC+) over his final 201 PAs with an 11.4 BB% and 13.9 K%. I wouldn’t expect anyone to maintain a 195 wRC+, but if EMJ continues his leveled up production in Nashville he could make things real interesting in the 1B mix.
  14. sveumrules
    Some Logan Henderson fun facts. There are 441 pitchers with at least 150 IP in the minor leagues the last two years. Here are some of his ranks among that group... 34.0 K% (1st) | 27.3 K-BB% (1st) | 0.94 WHIP (2nd) | 3.08 xFIP (5th) | 5.12 K/BB (8th) | .191 AVG (9th) | 78.0 LOB% (18th) | 3.04 ERA (23rd) | 6.6 BB% (46th) | 3.53 FIP (54th)
  15. sveumrules
    Welcome to the board!
  16. sveumrules
    If you told me to guess the first two pitchers injured in spring, DL & JB would have been near the top of the list, so as much as it sucks for them they were both already kind of in the anything you get is a bonus camp for me anyway. Peralta, Nestor, Tobias, and Civale are a fine first four. Obviously the fifth spot is a little murky at this point but can't do much better than someone with Ashby's upside as a place holder until Woodruff is ready. Gasser should be coming at some point later in the summer too. The AAA rotation of Misio, Henderson, Patrick, Carlos Rodriguez, KC Hunt has five prospects with varying degrees of performance and potential under their belts. Megill, Payamps, Koenig, Hudson, Peguero, Mears, Alexander and R5 Connor Thomas is a pretty deep and intriguing MLB pen with guys like Yoho, Uribe, Elvin Rodriguez, the two Grants that got 40 Manned, and Deivi Garcia providing another half dozen or so options. If the Brewers front office and pitching dev braintrust like one of the guys still out there, sure go ahead and sign em up, but I don't think the Brewers have any urgent need to address things as they stand.
  17. sveumrules
    No, I was just joking, that's why I put it in blue. Believe trying to rip a phone book in half is how Steve Sparks injured himself back in the day though.
  18. sveumrules
    Trying to rip a phone book in half and his hand slipped.
  19. sveumrules
    From 1987-96 Molitor hit for 134 wRC+ with his 40.6 WAR ranking 10th in MLB over that stretch, I'd love it if Tyler Black was a Top Ten player in MLB for a decade plus, but I'll take the under.
  20. sveumrules
    Current leaders in the clubhouse for their 1B and corner outfield appear to be... Michael Toglia (2019 1st round pick) 25 HR but only a 98 wRC+ and 32.1 K% last year. Jordan Beck (2022 CB-A pick) stunk in MLB last year, but had a 132 wRC+ in 189 PAs at AAA. Nolan Jones hit for a 137 wRC+ and 3.8 WAR in 2023 but fell off to 70 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR last year. DH is Kris Bryant so you know there will be at bats to be had there as well. I personally wouldn't want to give up Black unless the Rockies ate a decent chunk of money, but they could surely use him. Maybe even throw him in back at 2B over Thairo Estrada or at 3B as the next man up after McMahon appears to be Kyle Farmer. (obligatory mention that Keston Hirua is also in Rockies camp on a minor league deal)
  21. sveumrules
    Rockies don't need Perkins because they already have Brenton Doyle in CF as one of their few actually decent players. Not sure why they'd want to pay someone like Payamps in the bullpen after back to back 100 loss seasons either. Think upper minors guys like Boeve (hit tool should play up at Coors) or Wichrowski (Rockies love big fastballs) would be more along the lines of what COL would be looking for.
  22. sveumrules
    Tattoos sneaking out from the left arm make me think Felipe Lopez.
  23. sveumrules
    Shears was used exclusively in relief for his one pro season. He had 42 BB, 11 HBP and 12 wild pitches in 49 innings. Hard to be a starter with that kind of command.
  24. sveumrules
    Looks like the Pohlads will need to find new buyers as the Ishibas are pivoting to increasing their minority share in the White Sox instead.
  25. sveumrules
    Good news is that even without Dame, Bobby, Prince and only 19 minutes of hobbled Giannis, plus being on the second game of a home/road back to back against a fully rested team that hadn’t played since before the break…the Bucks are still better than the Wizards. Right now the 4-5-6 six seeds are bunched up within a couple games at IND (31 W - 23 L), MIL (31 W - 24 L), and DET (30 W - 26 L). Ideally they end up in that 4/5 seed match up that would allow them to avoid NYK / BOS / CLE until the 2nd round.
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