sveumrules

Yeah, tough opening day slate with Spencer Strider (5.1 IP | 2 BB | 8 K), Robby Snelling (5.0 IP | 2 H | 5 K), and Charlee Soto (4.0 IP | 2 H | 3 BB | 5 K) all putting up scoreless starts for the opposition.

Holub errs trying to pick off the Corporeal Runner on second & he comes around to score & that’s that. A walk off failed pick off.

NASH had 2nd & 3rd no outs but Hall & Seigler struck out before Spain grounded out to end the inning. Blake Holub on to try and out up a zero in the bottom half.

Durbin balked to 3rd and scored on an Alfaro sac fly, but Yoho couldn’t keep the Manfred Man from scoring with a Garrett Cooper single and error by Garrett Spain. Then got a pair of ground outs to get out of the inning and on to the 11th.

Middendorf added another scoreless frame (1 BB, 1 K) and now Yoho is on bottom of nine trying to get it to extras. & Craig goes flyout, strikeout, strikeout to send it to the tenth. EMJ will lead off with Durbin on 2nd.

Durbin broke up the no no, Mears put up a zero (1 BB), and Middendorf followed with a zero (1 H) of his own. Delgado, Oliva, Seigler due up top of eight trying to get the sounds on the board in the runs column.

No hitter alert (& not in the good way) for NASH top of six. Three walks so far so at least it isn’t an el perfecto alert I guess. McKendry (4 IP | 2 H | 2 K) and Liranzo (1 IP | 1 H | 1 K) have put up zeroes so far heading to the bottom half with Mears taking the mound.

Full Slate O' Games? Lawd Have Mercy. Little Luis Pena love in the FanGraphs chat today... TooDamnTall: What’s your take on Brewer’s Luis Pena. Is the bat going to be too light? Eric A Longenhagen: No, he’s good. Wanna see it for like two weeks at Carolina as I work the Brewers list before putting him on the hondo right around Jefferson Rojas or so.

Yeah, sounded like he got some offers over the winter but none of them were enough $$ for his liking so he said that's that.

Jackson Merrill extends with SDP for $135M guaranteed and a potential max value of $204M. Considering Chourio got $82M guaranteed with a potential max value of $130M looks like the Brewers saved around $50M to $70M by extending him before year one versus after.

FanGraphs Depth Charts ranks the NL Central rotations as... #6 Reds (12.7 WAR) #10 Pirates (12.2 WAR) #18 Brewers (11.0 WAR) #20 Cardinals (10.6 WAR) #21 Cubs (10.5 WAR) Somewhat interestingly the Brewers rotation finished #18 in MLB last year with 10.9 rWAR, almost exactly in line with their current projection. Even after the abomination of games 2/3/4 I'd still take the over on the Brewers rotation notching 11.0 rWAR this year, but I wouldn't be as confident picking them to finish the season as the #1 NLC rotation.

MLB has Elvin Rodriguez listed as the probable for MON and only has TBD for TUE for whatever that it is or isn’t worth. Last year was Peralta, Hall, Rea, Junis. Ross to start the season and it didn’t stop them from winning 93 games. We have more or less a full rotation - Quintana, Woodruff, Ashby, Hall, Gasser - in the injury queue lined up to return at various points, which is considerably more internal depth than was on hand to start last year.

Could be wrong, but I believe as a lefty hitter his right hand would be the bottom/power hand in his swing.

Ugh. Starting to look like a good comp, unfortunately. Broken hamate bones normally sap guys’ power for awhile after they come back. Would guess he won’t be back to “normal” until later this season or maybe even next year. Definite bummer for all involved parties. Echoing the sentiment this can serve as a reset of sorts towards getting that arrow pointing back in the right direction.

Trend around MLB the last couple years has been to put the best hitters at the top of the order to get the most PAs. Last year out of the leadoff spot there were guys like Schwarber (691 PA | 38 HR), Henderson (544 PA | 31 HR), Lindor (500 PA | 26 HR) and Ohtani (419 PA | 35 HR). In total there were seven players with at least 20 HR batting in the #1 spot versus zero with 20 HR batting in the #5 spot (Stanton and Ozuna just missed at 19 each) in 2024. Last two years now the league average leadoff hitter (111 and 108 wRC+) has been better than the average clean up hitter (108 and 106 wRC+).

Trail Blazers wouldn't have accepted Khris in the Lillard trade because he was coming off injury and had only played 33 games the previous season. Jrue had way higher value leaguewide at that point for POR to flip for something more useful to their rebuild. Like most Championship Windows the Bucks closed when the clock hit zero and they hoisted the trophy. 2019 Kawhi 2020 Lebron 2021 Giannis 2022 Curry 2023 Jokic 2024 Celts If either of the #1 seeds (CLE or OKC) goes all the way this year that will be seven straight years now with different Champs since LBJ/GSW/SAS monopolized six straight Finals from 2013-18.

Ten different teams getting votes for Win AL Pennant versus only five for the NL is a pretty good illustration how top heavy the NL is versus how wide open the AL is.

Home Opener pre-game scoreboard montage will probably be an All Timer. Gonna have the whole stadium bawling into their $13 beers.

FanGraphs published their staff predictions today. Votes shook out like this… Cubs WinDiv (15) Brewers WinDiv (7) WildCard (3) Reds WinDiv (3) Cards WinDiv (1) Pirates WinDiv (0) Looks like Jay Jaffe and Ben Clemens were among the main writers who picked MIL to win the NLC. Contreras (2 votes) and Chourio (1 vote) got some NL MVP love too while Logan Henderson also picked up a vote for NL ROY. Nobody picked the Brewers to make the World Series. Dodgers vs Red Sox (6 votes) was the most predicted pairing.

Not sure how reliable it is (maybe he heard it from former FG scribe, current Brewers Director of Player Information August Fagerstrom??) but Longenhagen said Pena would be joining Jesus at Carolina in his latest chat.

Yeah, I'd have no issue at all going the Adames route with William, taking three years of (hopefully) top end production and then the pick when he leaves in FA. Guessing they'd prefer to give Quero most of this year in the minors, before breaking him in as a backup in MLB next year. If he looks up to the task that would give them a little more wiggle room to maybe trade William in his final Arby year.

My back of the napkin math here was since Contreras is a year younger than Raleigh that means a seven year contract takes him through the same age. But William has been better than Cal on top of that, so I'd think that means eight years at a higher AAV. I believe only four catchers have ever cracked $20M AAV - Yadi (3/60), Salvy (4/82), Mauer (8/184) and JTR (5/115.5). Maybe William would go for something like 8/175 on the low end? That would get him the 2nd largest total value, 3rd highest AAV and exactly double what his brother signed for,

One of Misiorowski or Yoho ends the season with the highest Win Probability Added in the bullpen.

There's been plenty of talk over the last couple years about how much it might cost to maybe extend William Contreras, if he's even interested in doing so before free agency, and/or if Mark A & the rest of the ownership group would even sign off on such an expenditure. I figured with Cal "Big Dumper" Raleigh signing a six year, $105M extension on the same free agency timeline as Contreras it's as good a time as any to put a bunch of information in one place and try to figure out what that number might be for William (& if it's even a good idea). Let's start with a comparison over the last two years... Contreras 1,290 PA | 128 wRC+ | 11.2 WAR 115 AVG+ | 129 BB+ | 91 K+ | 110 ISO+ +11 DRS | +17.7 FRM | 19.9 CS% Raleigh 1,197 PA | 115 wRC+ | 9.7 WAR 93 AVG+ | 126 BB+ | 122 K+ | 138 ISO+ +19 DRS | +21.2 FRM | 27.1 CS% Contreras comes out ahead mostly on account of being a better all around hitter versus Raleigh being more of an all or nothing 3TO guy. Raleigh has been a more consistent defender, especially with regards to controlling the run game. The other big factor is that Contreras is a year younger than Raleigh. FanGraphs had a nice article today on the Raleigh extension and the larger landscape of historical catcher compensation. In it they note that Cal is only the 5th catcher to ever sign a $100M+ deal, so I thought I'd see how past top end catcher contracts turned out, or are turning out for the active guys. Joe Mauer (8/184) Before (Age 21-27) 3,578 PA | 135 wRC+ | 34.3 WAR After (Age 28-35) 4,382 PA | 113 wRC+ | 19.2 WAR [Mauer got the concussion in the first year of his extension, had two more prime level seasons as a part time catcher in 2012-13, then settled in as a fine (but massively overpaid) first baseman for the last five years of the deal.] Buster Posey (9/167) Before (Age 23-25) 1,238 PA | 146 wRC+ | 15.4 WAR After (Age 26-34) 4,352 PA | 125 wRC+ | 42.7 WAR [Delivered big for the first five years of the deal, dipped down to above average level in 2018-19, came back for one last big year after skipping 2020.] Will Smith (10/140) Before (Age 24-28) 1,966 PA | 128 wRC+ | 15.7 WAR So Far (Age 29) 544 PA | 111 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR [Smith's wRC+ has been arrow down pretty much from the jump with a combined 143 wRC+ over his small samples in 2019-20 then a 130 in 2021, 127 in 2022, 118 in 2023, 111 last year. It's the Dodgers so $14M a year for the next nine years is couch cushion change, but this isn't looking like a deal many of the other 29 teams would jump to take on even though he remains one of the Top 10 backstops in the game.] JT Realmuto (5/115.5) Before (Age 24-29) 2,910 PA | 110 wRC+ | 19.4 WAR So Far (Age 30-33) 2,052 PA | 112 wRC+ | 15.4 WAR [JTR had two prime level seasons to start his record AAV deal, and has followed it up with two closer to average ones heading into his walk year.] *Yasmani Grandal (5/91.25)* Before (Age 25-29) 2,326 PAs | 115 wRC+ | 23.4 WAR After (Age 30-34) 1,982 PA | 109 wRC+ | 10.4 WAR [This one's kinda cheating since the 5/91.25 is combining two separate contracts and was actually closer to $80M after accounting for the pro-rated 2020, but Yasmani essentially kept rolling for the first three years of big money before falling off the cliff for ages 33-34. He had a nice bounce back last year in a part time role with PIT but remains unsigned.] So, taking all that into account, it looks like counting on even the very best catchers to be productive much past their 30th birthday is a dicey proposition. As far as how much Contreras would want to sign on the dotted line? I think he wants the total money and AAV records which at this point would essentially be 8/200. An MVP calibre season (followed by some postseason heroics, but lets not get too far ahead of ourselves) would go a long way in adding to that pursuit.

During the 39 games after the 2 W - 8 L start, but before acquiring Kuzma the Bucks went 25 W - 14 L (.641 W%) with a 114.7 oRTG (9th) | 111.4 dRTG (8th) | +3.3 netRTG (8th). During the 22 games since Kuzma's first game the Bucks are 13 W - 9 L (.591 W%) with a 114.5 oRTG (17th) | 110.9 dRTG (4th) | +3.6 netRTG (9th). I think the biggest factor for the trade was it got us below the 2nd apron or whatever, under the older less restrictive CBA I think there is a better chance they just keep Khris and roll the dice with what was "working". Next biggest factor was just availability. Kuzma has played all 22 games totaling 729 minutes since the deal. Obviously there has been some load management going on, but Middleton's only played 13 games and 295 minutes for the Wiz. Playoffs are about defense and they've been better defensively since Kuzma (& Porter Jr.) arrived. I still think 2nd round is the realistic ceiling for this squad, but I do think they improved their odds of making an improbable run (while improving future flexibility at the same time) ever so slightly. I'm not contending that the Bucks are any kind of high-functioning organization, they clearly aren't. But I do believe their deadline was purposeful and they mostly accomplished what they set out to given the corner they backed themselves into (out of necessity at the behest of Giannis).