Jenkins5

I probably need to temper my Rookie of Year, Golf Glove, long term core expectations on him but man has he impressed. Coming out I loved the pick. He fell after being top player in his grade 9-11th grade, his knock was power so he pressed to sell out on that senior year which lead to his drop. I always said since he was drafted he was a Trae Turner clone & honestly I still see it and it’s exciting! The tools line up really well 5 years later still. I don’t know, I’m feeling more excited about him than any prospect in a long while. He seems like he’s adjusting quickly & could just be a real solid dude in the 1 or two spot for years to come. I’m so excited to follow each of his at bats! I think most of his abs so far he has worked count to 5,6,7 pitches at least. That is so impressive for a young kid! My discussion question is how for you all feel about his potential? We all just riding his current wave? How excited are we about him? Who are we most excited about? Him? Joey, Garrett, Sal? What do you feel now is his MLB ceiling? I feel he is a Gold Glove 2B currently, at SS probably not but prob be a plus defender. Think he will steal 40 bases and lead team in runs & always be a beast running. I do see Trae Turner stats. Good average, Power mostly being in the teens until later in 20s. He will get on base (will walk more) and steal 30-40 in his early days. Don’t think he he will be an All-Star every year but do see him being a guy who could sneak into a few possibly. What you all think?

Pretty solid minor league season! Usually there is a team that as a pretty huh lineup but think at every level there is pretty exciting lineups! Pitching isn't as exciting as the bats but some young guys who could take big step this year!

Guy I think will really take next step in Carolina this season is Daniel Guilarte. Will be only 19 for the entire season. Last year he was steady as rock and consistent. He has good build to him at 6'0 160. Hit .306, walked at a 13.5% clip. K'd 21.5%. His Iso was low at .065 with no homers. His gb rate was 64% which is very high. Interestingly he pulls the ball 43% of the time and goes oppo 41% of the time. His tools grade out promising from mlb pipeline Hit: 50 | Power: 40 | Run: 60 | Arm: 60 | Field: 55 | Overall: 45.

I think that is the next best step for the system. MLB has done a great job revamp their Academies and providing continued education to these kids. However, you have to be 16 and signed in order to join an academy. Basically right now there are 1500 to 2000 independent or informal youth academies/training centers that feed these kids to getting signed. Most of the children joining these academies drop out of school to focus on baseball as early as 10 years old. Considering less than half of these children will get signed to a team ( even if they do, there is a 98% chance they never reach the big leagues) Dominican Republic has a major problem on their hands. Over 30% of these kids who don't get signed or flame out end up not working for money or returning to school. Poverty and crime continue to escalate. Basically at 10-14 you put all you marbles into baseball and if you don't hit, the future is not bright. MLB again has made really good strides but needs to expand their MLB Trainer Partnership Program. This has cut down a lot of the shadiness that has plaqued the international market. I believe the ideal situation would be basically, setting up IMG type academies like we have here in US where children still are receiving education on top of baseball training. Get these kids into a school that has a focus on baseball training. Get them some proper nutrient meals and strength and conditioning. These academies should mirror what they do with the Dominican Academies after kids sign. Maybe at 12-14 they can commit with a scholarship to a club affiliated/ organized academy with academics. Scholarship is key word, it should not be binding at all. At 17-18 (maybe once graduate) be able to sign an official contract with that club or another to enter the affiliate academy or stateside. I think the issue with that is, teams don't want to develop players at any academy if they will not reap benefits of it. I can't see how they would ever approve a draft if they are putting in more money to develop and educate children at younger ages. I would have no problem with committing to 14 year olds if they are making sure that child is still getting an education and preparing them incase things don't work out right.

I kind of forgot about Uribe and Henderson when going through. Uribe's arm is special if he can just get it over the plate with with some consistency. Sad he only got to pitch two games this year. Glad to see Henderson back in action! Those are the three of the main guys I follow in Arizona as well. I have a thing for Jesus Rivero. If the pitching lab can get him at least to 4-5bb/9, he can really shoot up. Rakes up K's, very hard to hit. His walks are only thing in his way. I'd like to see Quinton Low pitch more. Has been very good when he has. Gonzales and Galindez peak my interest. Galindez has some command issues but racks up the k's. Gonzales has good command and solid k numbers. Aquino is my favorite. His stuff MOVES! I really hope the 60 day placement isn't Tommy J or something else that will not let him start the year next year. Herrera is big and broad with real powerful arm and surprising command this season (huge jump!). Right now its more Wily Peralta power arm. Pretty hittable but room to continue to grow. Vallecillio I think is the safe bet for next year to be similar to Cruz and a workhorse for Carolina. He just seems like he is a good pitcher

Found some info on 8th Round pick with some videos. Here

For excitement? Probably need to start at Wisconsin and lower outside of Small and Gasser. In AA, Knarr has put together a really nice season in AA and people like Castaneda more than I do but he is starting to find it again since coming back. Shook has been real solid. Nick Bennett stacking some good outings. In Wisconsin In Wisconsin, Justin Jarvis, Carlos Rodriquez, and Cam Robinson are the 3 that excite me the most. Honestly, all three could realistically be the #4 pitcher in the system (Misiorowski with Small and Gasser) Cam Robinson (22 years old) has been closing games and dominating at it with 2.70 xFIP, over 12k/9, and .160 baa . Justin Jarvis (22 years old) as of right now may be Brewers Pitcher of the Year. He has been their workhorse and has increased his stock drastically. After having to repeat Wisconsin he has shown big improvement. April can be rough in Wisconsin pitchers and Jarvis struggled (19.1ip, 19h, 20er, 12bb, 15k with 7.91era with 4/5 starts being ugly) but since start of May he has 17gs 91.1ip, 2.86 era, 73h, 29er, 34bb, 108k with 10.64 k/9 (28.5%) 3.35 bb/9 (9%), .213 baa, 1.17whip, 3.89FIP Carlos Rodriquez leads the way for the 20 year old arms with being the first in the group to be promoted to A+. If you remove his 6 innings in April (2 were brutal outings... 12 hits and 9 runs in 3 innings) his line is: 75.1ip, 46h, 20er, 31bb, 90k, 2.39 era for advance of 10.75k/9 (30.7%), 3.7 bb/9 (10.6%), .188 baa, 1.02 whip, and 3.91 FIP ----------------------- Russell Smith (23 years old) is a high draft pick. He is steady but nothing really jumps out at you in the stat lines Israel Puello (21 years old) is worth the follow. He was outstanding in Carolina and has track record of high k/9, low bb/9, solid FIP. He has not been impressive yet in but potential is there. Karlos Morales (23 years olds) has been in the system since 2017 and last year he started to take good step forward and breakout a bit. He recently earned a promotion In Carolina Where it starts to get a lot tougher just based on amount of info on many of these guys. Usually with draft picks and bonus babies in the international market you get scouting reports and know a lot more about the guys. You rely heavily on just the stats. Brewers don't sign bonus baby pitchers so most info you get is size, age, and where they were born then hope for clips of them on BrewerPD, for them to crack a top 30 list with a write up, or maybe some to report what they say watching a game. With that said some of these kids look like must follows to get excited about! Led by the 20 year old crew! Alexander Cornielle, Stevin Cruz, less talked about Edwin Jimenez. 19 year old Jeison Pena hasn't really been stretched out yet this year (my guess is next season when he starts in A or A+) but flat out tormented rookie ball hitter before being promoted. There is some potential with 21yr old Jeferson Figueroa if he gets more command. Same for Miguel Segura who Brewers must like. He has struggled but also has been youngest pitcher on staff until Pena came up. Pablos Garabitos started as a 2 way player after being draft but has focused on pitching since 1st season. He has been really solid. Michele Vassalotti who seem like he has been in system forever with high hopes has been probably the 2nd best closer in system behind Robinson. Ones to be most excited for Alexander Cornielle is my number 1. Since start of May he's been great! 11.8k/9 (31.5%, 3.52 bb/9 (9.6%), 4.09FIP, 3.63 ERA, with baa of .212 and whip of 1.17. Basically outside of Will Dion of the Indians, Cornielle is arguably the 2nd best pitcher in Low East A ball. Needs to continue to improve command but a lot to like! Stevin Cruz since coming up in Mid May has generated a bunch of helium amongst Brewer fans. Starting to get good amount of top 20 love. He ranks up K's at a 11.07 k/9 (29%) and most impressively has outstanding command! 2.24 bb/9 (5.9%) His biggest issue right now is he gets hit pretty good. A baa of .279 and has given up 13 HRs (1.62 per 9). Jeison Pena was promoted in early July and is being used out of the pen currently but think he will be stretched out next year to be workhorse similar to Cornielle, Jimenez, Cruz. He's pretty electric. As I said, he prior he tormented hitters in Arizona with 14.8 k/9 and only 2.16 bb/9 while only having baa of .206 and xFIP of 2.98. Since promotion, the command struggles from last year have resurfaced in A ball (16.3%) but K's are still at 29%, he still isn't getting hit much (.206 baa) and xFIP still 4.04. Needs to cut down walks but he is def a arm to watch going into next year! Edwin Jimenez aka the forgot man. He was the 4th amigo among the 20 year olds when Rodriquez was here, now the third. He was very successful last year in his DSL/AZ campaign 10.89 k/9 vs 2.84 bb/k, 3.80 xFIP. This season he has been okay. Nothing to get excited about on paper. He has has some flashes like a start on Aug. 4th. Then mix in the rough ones. He gets about a K an inning (8.74 k/9), keeps walks at solid amount (3.56 bb/9), gives up hits at okay amount (.247), Homeruns have been too many at 14 (1.35 per 9), and a xFIP of 4.56. Of the pitchers in A ball and above (or recent picks) I'd rank them like this. 1. Jacob Misiorowski 2. Robert Gasser 3. Ethan Small 4. Carlos Rodriquez 5. Justin Jarvis 6. Alexander Cornielle 7. Cam Robinson 8. Stevin Cruz 9. Jeison Pena 10. Victor Castaneda

So without the velocities I see: *Fastball with rise he attacks up in zone with *2 steam with good late break action away *A tighter slide with 1 to 7 break *A change with good depth and fade to it. Does that seem right? I like the life in the 2 seam. Tails pretty hard at the end.

Wish I could find a good scouting report on his stuff. Anyone seen him and can give a report? Stevin Cruz tends to be the one that gets more of the hype of the two. They are only a few months apart and Cornielle is really starting to make people notice him more! I pulled up a side by side of the two from time when Cruz got called Cornielle (prior to tonights masterpiece) 72.2IP 57h 29er 8hr 30bb 93k ....11 hb/wp Cruz 72.1IP 77h 37er 13er 18bb 89k.....9 hb/wp

Since July 1st 39IP 27H 8ER 10BB (5 In one game) 49K So roughly 11k/9 (30%k) 2.5bb/9 (7%). Sub .200 batting average, sub 2.00 ERA, sub 1 WHIP. A Mid 3 FIP Even more impressive, since May 12th: Stat line: 78.2IP 59H 29ER 30BB 103K 11.78K/9 (31.5%), 3.43 BB/9 (9.5%) for a 22k% to bb%, 2.71 ERA / 4.00 FIP /.208 BAA, 1.14 WHIP So he just keeps getting stronger! I say lets get this hype train rolling for the 20 year old!

Yikes hope nothing serious! Aquino is one of the young pitches I've been following closely

Yawn, Sal still roasting AAA pitching. Get him to Milwaukee already lol

Yeah I was wrong. Weimer hit .284 until end of May. Since June 1st .196 with only 3 HRs and 64ks. His promotion was surprising to me. Maybe it was to try to shake him back up to get him back on track? Hopefully he can figure out his since again. He was on his way to being a top 50 prospect and one of the most dangerous bats in minors. Its sad to watch him struggling so bad with how exciting he had been up to that point.

Contact is clearly a major issue. He can't continue to K at his current rate. He can't be out here wiffing 40+% With that said, man when he is making contact, it is at an elite level. I mean 90+ percentile in all of baseball. Hard to give up on that powerful of a swing entering prime 26. He needs to get into the lab hard and make adjustments. I don't have good enough minor league data to back it us but between 2018 to 2019, the jump to AAA there was a switch from the more professional hitter with solid power who didn't k more than 20% to a much more power first type hitter with reduced contact. I'm just confused he could go from such a contact professional hitter and turn into not making contact 40% of swings. The positives in 22' Without seeing the the data on wiffs or k's you'd think this guy was an elite bat. 92 percentile for barrel% at 18.5% 89 percentile for Average EV 93.1 96 percentile for hard hit% at 88 percentile for xISO He is hitting sweet spot at a 44.6% and a crazy 1.5% weak contact%. He still has a wRC+ of 135. A 1 WAR in 150 PA's. .840 OPS. 10.5 bb% which is highest of career. .244 ISO. The Bad. 43% K% is awful. His zone contact and chase contacts are rough. His inability to tough lefties is serious issue currently. Breaking balls in particular. He is hitting .067 on breaking balls. He is whiffing at 54.8% rate. Fastballs a little better at .212 average and "only 41.2% whiff. Those compare to the .333 average and 38.5 whiff% on fastballs verse lefties and .259 average and 43.9% whiff% on breaking balls. With no real defensive home, that also hurts but even with the K's, the bat is producing. Question is how much can you deal with the Ks for what the bat does when it hits ball. I would hit him only verse righties. Zero reason he should see a lefty the rest of the season. Brewers need what his bat can down the stretch. It is most dangerous bat they have. He needs to make adjusts though with the contact. In July/August he has 34 PA's and only 11 Ks compared to the 43 PA's he had in June where he K'd 24 times. Still high but an improvement at least

I can't speak for his minor league exit velocities but at major league level in very small sample (27 ABs) he struggled in that aspect. in 22 batted balls he only had one barrel hit which was a nice 100mph but he only averaged 70 max velo and that is 6 percentile. His weak contact was a blistering 27% (4.3% is league average). Had 0 solid contacts (6.1% is league average). Again it was a small sample but he struggle to adjust and make good contact. 95.5% of contact was weak, topped, under, flare/burner verse 4.5% solid and barrel. 13.7% is league average for solid/barrels.

Turang and Frelick are the two I see who could be opening day starters. Both in my opinion should be called up soon to start giving them at bats to prep them for next year. Get the adjustment period started now. I think both can contribute. Frelick has proven at each jump to make quick adjustments. Turang starts off slower with adjusting and not as easy of a path to play time currently as Frelick. Ruiz I think has a chance to make roster off the bench. I think he brings a lot off the bench as late defense and baserunner sub. Bottom of ninth. Renfroe walks. Make the sub and put the 70-80 grade speed out there. That's an asset. He will need to continue to show this season at plate was for real. Mitchell and Weimer I think go back to AAA unless either are trade bait. They are currently behind the other 3. Weimer has been ice cold for 6 weeks or so now. The hit tool issues from college we didn't see last year or until mid/lat June need to get corrected. Still believe he is a starting RF talent. Still get the Corey Hart/ Hunter Pence vibes. Mitchell just needs to stay healthy and start to show some domination. He has been very good but has yet to put all those tools together to be the big impact player he can be.

Was just about to say that! 6 hits and 5 runs in one inning....was not expecting Sal being the guy to make 2 of the outs.

Chourio ropes deep sac fly dead center at warning track to give T-Rats 3-1 lead

Miller after being robbed of double last AB pulls laser down line off the chalk for a double.

Miller with hard hit to the gap but Crow-Armstrong showing off his 70+ grade speed to make great diving play. First time watching Rodriquez pitch. Fastball sits low 90s but has life. Not sure if it’s a 2 seam or cutter but has some tight lateral movement. Throws a lot of change ups. Good depth on it. Think also throws a curve. All off speed is more 12-6 or 1-5. Didn’t see any the that sweeps at all. Metzinger just laced a nice double

I had to pull up the game log and splits on him because lately he his name has been popping out alot! He has really come on since game before All-Star break on 17th. Only 2 multi hit games prior to July 17th, 6 of them since. Had 4 doubles, 0 Triples, and 4 Hrs before July 17th and since 4 doubles and 5 HRs.

CF Jackson Chourio CF Sal Frelick RF Joey Weimer LHP Ethan Small CF Garrett Mitchell LHP Robert Gasser SS Brice Turang CF Esteury Ruiz C Jeferson Quero 2B Tyler Black OF Hendry Mendez RHP Jacob Misiorowski 2B Felix Valerio Eric Brown Jr. RHP Justin Jarvis SS Eduardo Garcia OF Hedbert Perez RHP Carlos Rodriquez IF Jadher Areinamo RHP Stevin Cruz

I don't mind the signing at 17. High School kids can sign at 17 as long as they graduate or get GED. I could see maybe a mandatory first season in the DSL to better development. A problem with many Latin Americans is due to where they are from, they do not have same access or ability to develop their bodies way most Americans can. Until they sign, they don't have access to the strength and conditioning, nutritionist and proper foods, and such to develop bodies like a pro athlete. Why most are rail thin 150 pounds when they sign. That is unless they are children of former players or are able to get into the elite academies that offer that. So really you are putting them at a disadvantage from the start right there by making them same age as American High Schoolers who at nearly every school has weight rooms and coaches or families have money for private trainers. I'm strongly against international draft. See no benefit in it. With the bonus pools, it levels playing field so rich markets can just outbid on everyone anymore. That even the playing field. Brewers have a chance to sign anyone just as much as the Yankees. You build an elite academy, offer education opportunities, and post career training. Show these kids you care about their future, how you can help develop them, and make life better...you got a good shot. Let the players and families decide whats best path for them. What benefit comes from a draft? How do award the picks order? Currently its not a broken system and is improving. Only thing it may do, is move away scouts away from targeting kids starting at 13/14 back yup to 16/17. Same time with Perfect game, scouts are one these American kids just as early, just not talking contracts with them.

First the record of players from Brewers to make it can be thrown out. Brewers until recently have not really invested in international talent. If you look at other teams who have long been invested and consistently, they have produced ton of MLB talent. Brewers would sign maybe a handful a year and give out a couple bigger bonuses but overall they were not very committed to the market. However, with that said, only 3-5% signings will make it to the major leagues. So you are correct there. The DSL Academy system itself is actually good. It helps develop the players, gives them some schooling, prepares them for adjusting to life in America. They have access to top notch fields, strength training, nutrition, housing, etc that otherwise could be rather poor. They are also playing best of the best of their fellow Latin American peers. Not to mentions the thousands of jobs these DSL academies have brought to those communities. Note though these kids at 12-14 are recruited to play for unaffiliated academies who prep them to be signed. The good ones offer housing, meals, training as well (Think IMG Academies). Buscar's are the biggest issue with this though, they are like agents for these middle school kids who get them in academies and tryouts then take big percent of bonus (like 30%). Most are good but some really shady ones who really screw these kids and families over. What you have a problem with is the system itself. How early they sign and long path that puts them at a disadvantage. That is very understandable. The infrastructure is so different than America though. Their schooling system is different. Going to school and playing "high school ball" isn't an option. The schools don't have funds like ours do to really support that. Plus kids that aged are forced to work and provide for family. Moreover, they don't have a real college baseball option. Unless your family moved to U.S. earlier on. Some may blame baseball for lack of education due to these young boys leaving school to focus on baseball, however, studies show many of the boys the same age leave school because they need to work on sugar cain farms, for hotels, etc to help provide for families. Their signing bonuses, even at 10k may be years worth of salary for their family. They also get paid a lot in D.R. terms as well. They make $600-$750 a month compared to the normal lower employee their making around $100 a month. Basically, signing these 16-17 year olds (must be 17 before July of that year) is like giving them a paid college scholarship to compete for a chance to someday play pro ball in America at highest level. At 17 they are basically the Bryce Harper's or Robert Moore's reclassifying and going on scholarship a year early. Only difference is they are considered pro players now and affiliated with a team. They are all chasing opportunity to provide better life for their families. Not much different than basketball/football scholarships are used in poor communities in America. They are an opportunity and next. step to make it to NFL or NBA and change everything for their families. Most will not make it nor change their families life. Doesn't mean it is bad. Talent will always win out. Only the most talented reach stateside before they are "draft eligible" American/Canadian age. Kids who sign at 17-18 after being drafted out of high school are in similar spot. Most will not make it. Most will wash out before ever reaching A+ or AA. Its way minors are. About 99% of college scholarship athletes in basketball and Football will also never make it. You can argue they at least get an education but again you are talking about kids coming from countries with some of the worst education systems in the world. I don't have problem with the system as a whole. It can continue to improve for sure though. Educational opportunities need to increase for players. Those young academies their need to like IMG here be giving these kids an education on top of baseball. The DSL and Arizona Complex need to more than teach them English and American culture but also make sure they at least get GED level education with future scholarships to higher education like American players are offered. Also, their clock to be added to 40 man shouldn't start until they are stateside. Players can stay in DSL until 21 to develop so the rush to move them up could decrease with incentive to develop them as much as possible there. Lastly, even if most don't make it. 30% of MLB players are Latin American. Many of it's biggest stars are Latin American. Many of the biggest prospects are Latin American. So to think you shouldn't sign them because most won't make it is foolish. Most players from high school, 4 year schools, Juco, etc also will not make it. Sorry so long, In college I did a big 5 page scholarly research paper on all this and love this topic. Baseball does so much for these kids and communities that otherwise would be impossible. Even flaming out early, you provided for family like wouldn't have been possible. Even if it was a year or two. As teacher, I wish education/career prep was more emphasis to help these kids if they do flame out. I know a few teams invest a lot into that stuff (think Mets are one). Helps with signing top talent as well. Prove to parents you are truly taking care of their 17 year old son much like a college coach takes on.

I broke down the top 10 International Arizona Complex pitchers as well today just didn't post. Plenty of examples of kids with high walk rates, FIPs, ERAs in DSL last year and came up showing out much better! Yujanyer Herrera and a kid who has really turned it on who may really pop if he can carry July over, Jesus Rivero were in similar boats last year. Wande Torres, Darling Solano, Aneuris Rodriquez are all Kids I think could move up next year and be much improved. They all have little control right now which is their major issue that has doomed them this season. They all three though K over 10 per 9, all are tough to hit with batting average against sitting .200 or lower, and all three have nice and low line drive rates. Rodriquez has the 6'3 185 build kind of like Torres. Solano little smaller at 6'1 165.