Cool Hand Lucroy

Man, I'm surprised by just how far away I am from a lot of folks relative to the number one seed. Complete respect, not arguing, but I honestly feel more and more like I'd rather be the two, especially since the 4 and 5 seeds are going to be basically identical, one of them will be the Cubs (and the other might be the Dodgers), and I like the chance of playing the Mets/Reds/Giants/Dbacks more than I fear playing LAD (or SDP if they end up taking the West). Either way, we can all agree the division is the big target now. It comes with a guaranteed bye. Today is a relatively big swing day. Up 4 with 9 to go is safe but probably somewhere between 1 in 30 and 1 in 50. Up 5 with 9 to go is more like 1 in 100, maybe. Up 6 with 9 to go is probably more like 1 in 200. Really hoping we can knock 2 off the magic number, but 1 would be a perfectly acceptable result.

Our Civale.

Fedde is not a call I expected.

I think they feel like "might as well celebrate once." I imagine they are going to go all out against the Reds. If the magic number is down to one or two by end of day Sunday, they probably prioritize rest and youth ABs (which doesn't always mean a downgrade in performance). I mean, at 4-5 back, the Cubs are not going to press their pitchers too hard. At 3? Differetstory.

Taylor Ward hit ball far.

I kind of figured this race was going to come down to the last week. Still might not, but the Brewers and Cubs have been two of the three best teams in the NL all year. Coming in to these past two series, you were hoping for the Rays and Pirates to each get one. It's looking like the Cubs will go 5-1. Still probably not enough, even if we only manage to split these next two against the Angels. But you never know. I do think the Reds will manage a better showing. It's a big ask for the Cubs to get 3 of 4 in Cincy under these circumstances, facing the pitchers they'll face, and with their bullpen really having had to cover a lot of high-leverage innings (including today). Maybe they do it, in which case major hats off to them. You don't win divisions against very, very good competition by sleepwalking through the last two weeks. We've been a little spoiled in the regard recently. Two bits of good news from my perspective: 1) It's not the worst thing in the world to get pushed down the stretch. Keep focused. Keep winning. Playing meaningful games later in the season is good for everyone in most ways. Honestly, the ideal scenario is you clinch with 3-5 games to go. That way, you can steal a week's worth of extra rest for the guys who need it without too long a lay off. 2) We're real close to clinching over the Padres and Dodgers, meaning the division means the bye. That's new, if we can pull it off. It would be worth a real big celebration and be a fitting cap to what might be the best regular season this team has ever had.

I mean, Yelich, Frelick, Turang, and Collins are likely going to start games. So Bauers is your only lefty PH option.

I see you, Chad Patrick.

They've absolutely been nails. Credit to that staff for sure. The one thing that helps from a Brewers perspective is their bullpen has really been ridden hard over the last week. Keller even pitched in the game they lost to the Rays (got the BS, I believe). You'd have to think that'll catch up to them at some point. It's the soft part of their roster. We'll see over the next 5, I guess. We'll also see how hard the Cubs push for the division. They may well clinch tonight. They're certainly not going to give in, but they might rotate some guys in and out.

One of Freddy's very, very good outings. 6 strong, made one mistake. Nibbled a little, but put together some efficient innings in the middle portion. The Angels offense isn't great, but they look like world-beaters compared to what the Pirates are running out there right now.

I like Lockridge too. I think, though, Perkins needs to be here. Without him, we are EXTREMELY right-handed, especially off the bench. Plus, the defense. Just gotta keep hoping he figures it out.

I really don't think how a team is playing on September 14th has much to do with how they'll play in the playoffs. I don't think how a team plays in games 158-162 tells anyone very much either. We can play the vibes game (there's not much else to do other when you're up 5.5 with 12 to play), but that's mostly just to pass the time. We played a mediocre series and won 2 of 3, after playing a slightly better series and getting swept. That's the name of the sport. Some poor defense from Jackson really cost Q in the 2nd, and then there was the bad break of Frelick's throw hitting the runner. We didn't get the big hit, and there's your ballgame. On the bright side, this looks, on paper, like our week to make a move. Phillies are out west, including a series against the Dodgers. Dodgers have to play seven games, with their other series against the in-the-thick-of-it Giants. Cubs also play seven games (after having to lean on their bullpen quite a bit against Tampa), including four against the in-the-thick-of-it Reds and three tough pitching matchups in Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, we get some favorable pitching matchups against the Angels and then go to Saint Louis. If we gain 1.5 on the Cubs this week, we win the division. Even if we lose 2.5, the magic number would be 4 heading into the final six. Nobody wants any part of that latter scenario, but it does illustrate how much this next week crunches things. We play a good week, and this thing gets put to bed.

I am kind of in awe of how inexplicable was. Was Leahy even warming? I GUESS you could argue you wanted them to stick with a wild Romero? But what's the harm in making Leahy try for a 4 out save? Managers are so often making 50/50 choices. Tough job. All kinds of irrational critics. But that's the easiest call I've ever seen a manager refuse to make.

I mean, you have three 1B for exactly that reason. I'm not going to get worked up over much. But, like, explain that to me, please. Every manager in the league PHs Vaughn there.

Lol at Bauers hitting

When Bauers got hot and some joked that may seal his starting spot the rest of the year and into October that may have been prophetic. I am not a Bauers hater, even though I seem to have a lot to say about the guy. He's fine. But, yeah, I'm with you. He gets a lot of playing time for a guy who's basically the definition of replacement level.

Methinks Rhys is going to need more regular ABs over the next few weeks. If I'm Murph, I am going to start Vaughn 3-4 times/wk and Hoskins the rest. Bauers can get an occasional start in the OF and take on the lefty PH/PR role he'll have in the playoffs.

I should probably know better than to wade into this, but we're losing 6-1, so what the heck. 1) I understand keeping half an eye on the Phillies. But is it really worth getting worked up over in any way? The difference between having home field all the way through to the WS and MAYBE having to play on the road slightly more often in the NLCS seems like a pretty big shrug to me. 2) The argument about the division is silly. Not because it's over. Not because it isn't. It's silly because human brains cannot process 1% outcomes with any degree of precision. 1% outcomes happen both all the time (think about, say, COVID hospitalization) and almost never. The odds of being dealt pocket aces are 1 in 221. The Cubs are at about twice that to win. It FEELS more likely than that to some, and others talk about it like it's impossible. It's neither. But until this is truly done and dusted people are going to worry about pocket aces. That's fine as long as they're not folding after every raise. Right now, the fact is we're not playing very well. As for what that means, the answer is PROBABLY nothing. There could be some signal there, but we'll never see it without hindsight, and it might be pointing to something vanishingly small.

The margins are very thin for this team. If we are not hitting with RISP, taking extra bases, and stealing outs defensively, we will not win. We haven't done those things well enough during this mediocre stretch. You'd rather have it now than in two weeks.

Not doing a great job at swinging at strikes tonight.

No good excuse for that pitch to big brother. Miz didn't execute great, but you gotta be out of the zone there. Contreras maybe needs a better call.

Miz has great stuff. I trust him the least of all our starters, though. He seems like a clear playoff bullpen guy, but do I trust him enough for high leverage? I don't know. If we can't get Hall, Megill, etc. back, I think Miz has a spot for sure. If we get some guys back, though? It might be best to shut the guy down. I can imagine a few scenarios where he's only a mop-up type option, and, at that point, why push his arm?

Not as big of a situation, obviously, but Gorman's actual AB there was probably worse than Jackson's.

This is always the strangest time to be a fan of a good team. The Brewers are very, very good. They absolutely should win the division and earn a bye. It's still a ways until they actually clinch those things, though, so it feels like it's all downside risk. The Phils are smoking hot. They might catch us. I care not at all about that. We've gone up 7.5 on the Dodgers (really 8 with the tiebreaker). The Cubs have won 3 in a row at a time when the Brewers lost 3 of 4. Still, they're like 4-3 in their last 7, so not lighting the world on fire. I'm hoping the Rays and Pirates can each grab at least one from them in the next 5. Good day to start today with Rasmussen on the Hill for Tampa. After the Pirates series, the Cubs have to play 7 against the Mets and Reds, both of whom will be desperate. And Chicago has no off days in that stretch. If they cut this division lead in half, they'll have earned it.

Let's maybe save Uribe here, what do you say?